Bills 300 yard passing games

[Pete]

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

[Golden Goat]

23 minutes ago, Pete said:

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

 

"The last time the Bills had a 300-yard passer: Dec. 21, 2014. Kyle Orton threw for 329 yards in the Bills' 26-24 loss to the Oakland Raiders. It was the last of three 300-yard games Orton had for the Bills in 2014."

 

https://auburnpub.com/blogs/in_the_pros/buffalo-bills-need--yard-passer-for-sammy-watkins-robert/article_d8652492-c4b8-11e6-a331-531f238acfce.html

 

 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2018 by Golden Goat

[mead107]

Flutie was 38 and passed for 366 in 2000 

i think 

[machine gun kelly]

37 minutes ago, Pete said:

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

 

We can only hope.

 

love you’re pic Pete.  You probably have the best one on this board.

[White Linen]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

We can only hope.

 

love you’re pic Pete.  You probably have the best one on this board.

 

Mine should be your favorite.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, mead107 said:

Flutie was 38 and passed for 366 in 2000 

i think 

 

But did he make a single drop kick? 

[machine gun kelly]

Sorry -I’ll take Pete’s six days a week and twice on Sunday.  Could never say that while married as would be wrong, but divorced.  I do love Charlotte though bud.

 

Have a goodnight all as this guy is hitting the hay so I can workout before work in the AM.  It was fun reading everyone’s threads today as had a lot of down time for once in my role.  That usually doesn’t happen.

[Nick the Greek]

Fitz had some big games. I know he went over 300 in a few. He could be really fun to watch.. before he started throwing INTs.

 

https://www.footballdb.com/players/ryan-fitzpatrick-fitzpry01/300-yard-passing-games

Edited June 8, 2018 by Idandria

[twoandfourteen]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

 

Orton and Fitzy both had a bunch of 300+ yd games. 

 

Fitz had games of 307, 350, 337, 369 vs New England alone. 

 

Which is why the whole "Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly" notion is absolutely absurd. If anything, they are all at the same level, and the only reason TT is in that group is because he didn't turn the ball over. But he also didn't produce much offense. At least the other guys were trying to make plays. 

 

*Also -- TT needed 5 quarters to throw for 300+. He was around 280 or so at the end of regulation. 

Edited June 8, 2018 by twoandfourteen

[Royale with Cheese]

I think I heard a stat last year that Brady has more 300 yard games against the Bills than all the Bills QB’s combined in the drought against the entire NFL.

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, Idandria said:

Fitz had some big games. I know he went over 300 in a few. He could be really fun to watch.. before he started throwing INTs.

 

https://www.footballdb.com/players/ryan-fitzpatrick-fitzpry01/300-yard-passing-games

 

Fitz just made me laugh sometimes with some of his throws. He was the anti-Tyrod. Hey, take a shot, lob it out there.... why not??? 

[LeGOATski]

Orton?

 

Too bad they couldn't have kept him around...

[John from Riverside]

21 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Orton and Fitzy both had a bunch of 300+ yd games. 

 

Fitz had games of 307, 350, 337, 369 vs New England alone. 

 

Which is why the whole "Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly" notion is absolutely absurd. If anything, they are all at the same level, and the only reason TT is in that group is because he didn't turn the ball over. But he also didn't produce much offense. At least the other guys were trying to make plays. 

 

*Also -- TT needed 5 quarters to throw for 300+. He was around 280 or so at the end of regulation. 

Jesus you and your passing yards to determine the value of a QB

 

Fitzy was also throwing picks at the worst possible times

 

You have to weigh it ALL

[Dadonkadonk]

Ok let's bury this 300 yard game non-sense for good.  

 

TD

INT

TD/INT ratio

Yards/attempt

Comp %

 

All five of the above are more important individual stats than # of 300 yard games.  Overall passer rating is of course a better metric than any individual stat.  

You can also consider QBR as a better metric than yards/game as well as it takes into account successful pass or rush plays by the QB.

 

As you can see below, passing yards has little to no impact on wins.  Throwing TD's and not throwing INT's is the key to winning along with an efficient passing game.

The table below measures the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011:

Category	Correlation
ANY/A1	0.55
Passer Rating	0.51
NY/A2	0.50
Touchdown/Attempt	0.44
Yards/Att	0.43
Comp %	0.32
Interceptions/Att	-0.31
Sack Rate	-0.28
Passing Yards	0.16
Attempts	-0.14

As you can see, passer rating is indeed correlated with wins; a correlation coefficient of 0.51 indicates a moderately strong relationship; the two variables (passer rating and wins) are clearly correlated to some degree. Interception rate is also correlated with wins; there is a ‘-‘ sign next to the correlation coefficient because of the negative relationship, but that says nothing about the strength of the relationship. As we would suspect, as interception rate increases, wins decrease. On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins — this is exactly what Alex Smith was talking about last month:

http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

[hondo in seattle]

3 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

Ok let's bury this 300 yard game non-sense for good.  

 

TD

INT

TD/INT ratio

Yards/attempt

Comp %

 

All five of the above are more important individual stats than # of 300 yard games.  Overall passer rating is of course a better metric than any individual stat.  

You can also consider QBR as a better metric than yards/game as well as it takes into account successful pass or rush plays by the QB.

 

As you can see below, passing yards has little to no impact on wins.  Throwing TD's and not throwing INT's is the key to winning along with an efficient passing game.

The table below measures the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011:

Category	Correlation
ANY/A1	0.55
Passer Rating	0.51
NY/A2	0.50
Touchdown/Attempt	0.44
Yards/Att	0.43
Comp %	0.32
Interceptions/Att	-0.31
Sack Rate	-0.28
Passing Yards	0.16
Attempts	-0.14

As you can see, passer rating is indeed correlated with wins; a correlation coefficient of 0.51 indicates a moderately strong relationship; the two variables (passer rating and wins) are clearly correlated to some degree. Interception rate is also correlated with wins; there is a ‘-‘ sign next to the correlation coefficient because of the negative relationship, but that says nothing about the strength of the relationship. As we would suspect, as interception rate increases, wins decrease. On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins — this is exactly what Alex Smith was talking about last month:

http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

 

This is really Interesting - thanks for posting - but I think the subject needs further study.

 

Teams playing from behind tend to throw more.  This is probably why passing attempts are negatively correlated with winning and passing yards are not strongly correlated with winning.

 

In real life, we know there are times when your running game just isn't delivering the production you need and you have to throw the ball to win.  When that happens, you need a QB who can put up a 300 yard game.  Jim Kelly, for example, could do that.  Tyrod couldn't.  

 

Statistics taken out of context never tell the whole story.

 

Btw, which correlates with winning more:  QBR or passer rating?

 

[Dadonkadonk]

10 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

This is really Interesting - thanks for posting - but I think the subject needs further study.

 

Teams playing from behind tend to throw more.  This is probably why passing attempts are negatively correlated with winning and passing yards are not strongly correlated with winning.

 

In real life, we know there are times when your running game just isn't delivering the production you need and you have to throw the ball to win.  When that happens, you need a QB who can put up a 300 yard game.  Jim Kelly, for example, could do that.  Tyrod couldn't.  

 

Statistics taken out of context never tell the whole story.

 

Btw, which correlates with winning more:  QBR or passer rating?

 

Not sure about the QBR correlation.

Agree every stat needs context.

Jim Kelly is a good counter example arguing in favor of 300 yard games as a good measure for success.  He was 20-9 in games he passed for 300 yards. A 0.68 win percentage which compares favorably to his career win percentage of 0.621.  FYI Brady's career win % is 0.774 and Montana's is 0.711.

 

As for TT vs Kelly.  Take the stats for what they are worth but TT compares favorably to Kelly in QB rating (92.5 to 84.4), comp % (62.6 to 60.1) and INT % (1.3 to 3.7) while Kelly has a higher TD % (5.0 to 4.1).  YPA is nearly identical with Kelly at 7.4 and TT 7.2.  

I liked TT but I think these stats reflect more about the rules of the NFL in the late 80's-90's as compared to current.  While defenses are much more sophisticated and the pre-snap demands of the QB are far greater than 1990, the rules and style of play make it easier to complete a high percentage of safe passes.  

 

 

 

[MJS]

45 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

Ok let's bury this 300 yard game non-sense for good.  

 

TD

INT

TD/INT ratio

Yards/attempt

Comp %

 

All five of the above are more important individual stats than # of 300 yard games.  Overall passer rating is of course a better metric than any individual stat.  

You can also consider QBR as a better metric than yards/game as well as it takes into account successful pass or rush plays by the QB.

 

As you can see below, passing yards has little to no impact on wins.  Throwing TD's and not throwing INT's is the key to winning along with an efficient passing game.

The table below measures the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011:

Category	Correlation
ANY/A1	0.55
Passer Rating	0.51
NY/A2	0.50
Touchdown/Attempt	0.44
Yards/Att	0.43
Comp %	0.32
Interceptions/Att	-0.31
Sack Rate	-0.28
Passing Yards	0.16
Attempts	-0.14

As you can see, passer rating is indeed correlated with wins; a correlation coefficient of 0.51 indicates a moderately strong relationship; the two variables (passer rating and wins) are clearly correlated to some degree. Interception rate is also correlated with wins; there is a ‘-‘ sign next to the correlation coefficient because of the negative relationship, but that says nothing about the strength of the relationship. As we would suspect, as interception rate increases, wins decrease. On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins — this is exactly what Alex Smith was talking about last month:

http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

I agree with everything here. Tyrod was good at not throwing INT's, but he is was terrible at throwing TD's.

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

Which is why the whole "Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly" notion is absolutely absurd. If anything, they are all at the same level, and the only reason TT is in that group is because he didn't turn the ball over. But he also didn't produce much offense. At least the other guys were trying to make plays

 

give me the guy that wins over the guys that were trying to make plays but couldn't all day long.

[row_33]

I want 11 wins in a season

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Fitzy definitely had some.