2018 Schedule Weeks 5-8

[RPbillsfan]

Part 2 of the Season Preview from my perspective

 

Week 5 At home vs Tennessee

 

Bills coming home after a pair of tough NFC North matchups.  Tennessee wants to play run orientated smash mouth football but finds the Bills defense a tough nut to crack.  Bills back 7 shuts down Titans subpar passing game and then takes the lead forcing the Titans into catch-up mode.  Late turnovers seal the game as the passing game begins to click and make plays.  One score lead going into the 4th quarter extends to a 13 point victory.

 

Bills 27 Titans 14

 

Week 6 @ Houston

 

Bills take their road show for the 4th time in 6 outings and head down to Houston to take on the Texans.  Bills defensive line dominates this game stuffing the running game and putting pressure on Deshon Watson and his receivers.  Bills struggle against Texans front 7 and game moves into 4th quarter tied at 13.  Bills running game comes to the rescue and generates a long TD drive and the secondary comes down with a late interception to seal the victory.  Final score

 

Bills 20 Texans 13

 

Week 7 at Indianapolis

 

The road show moves to Indy as they take on the rebuilding Colts.  Andrew Luck makes Indy better and additions on the offensive line help his protection and running game, but the Bills are the better squad and maintain an edge throughout.  Running the ball well, controlling the clock and special teams winning the field position battle.  Three Haushka fg's and three TD's are enough to handle late Luck led comeback, final score

 

Bills 30 Colts 24

 

Week 8 Home for Monday Night football vs New England

 

Crazy atmosphere right before Halloween ? and the added incentive of Thurman's jersey Retirement make for a loud wild Monday night with the division leading Patriots.  Wild back and forth game with Brady having some success but not as much as usual.  Bills also moving the ball well with Shady and Ivory.  As usual Bills dominating the special teams.  But a late Brady TD pass fuels the comeback so the final score

 

Patriots 27 Bills 24

 

So, midpoint of the season the Bills are 5-3, 2nd place in the AFC EAST, 5th seed in the AFC with 5-1 conference record.

 

 

 

 

[Paul Costa]

I’d take that?

[RPbillsfan]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

No idea how you think the Bills are going to average 25 points a game in a 4 game stretch at any point during the season with the offense as it stands right now.

 

****, I'd be surprised if the team can put up at least 25 in a two game stretch at any point this year. 

 

 

It's my belief that this offense will get better as the season moves forward.  McCarron is better in my opinion that what people think and the offensive line and skill positions will be better then advertised.  Plus in three of the 4 games the Bills are playing the bottom half defensive teams in the league (minus a healthy Texans D)

[jr1]

[Aussie Joe]

Halfway through the season, looks like the Bills will be having a 4,000 yd QB with these sort of results...

[Doc Brown]

I love how even the most optimistic of posters still have us losing to New England.

[Seanbillsfan2206]

15-1. Peterman gets the start in the last regular season game and shatters his previous record of 5 first half ints with 7. He quietly retires after we beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl 

[eball]

7 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

No idea how you think the Bills are going to average 25 points a game in a 4 game stretch at any point during the season with the offense as it stands right now.

 

****, I'd be surprised if the team can put up at least 25 in a two game stretch at any point this year. 

 

 

 

Nobody takes an unknown and turns it into a guaranteed negative like ScottLaw.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Nobody takes an unknown and turns it into a guaranteed negative like ScottLaw.

 

my favorite troll lord

 

[FluffHead]

the Kool Aid is particularly strong this time of year

[eball]

57 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I usually just go with the opposite of whatever your prediction is. Your batting average is pretty bad so I figure the chances are I'm going to be right.?

 

Nice try.  You'd be better off just admitting your misery and seeking professional help for your BBFS.  There are wonderful pharmaceuticals out there these days.

[Dr. K]

0-4 or maybe 1-3

[corta765]

OK sooo I predicted the Bills in first four weeks would go 1-3 (W vs LAC, L vs GB, MIN, BAL). I am operating under the premise that Allen is the starter at this point also

 

Week 5 Tennessee Titans Win 23-14

The Titans are a team in transition and this is a great match up for our improved defense. The Titans lost a little bit on their defense last season also so I think our O-line can be ok against them and help Shady have a good day. I could see this as one of those games were Allen has a good day and shows the flashes you want to see from a rookie QB. Additionally with a new coach it usually takes a year for things to take a hold unless your QB is super special, Mariota isn't there at this point.

Bills 2-3 on the season.

 

Week 6 @ Houston Texans Loss 27-13

I don't know why I've read so many Bills fans who think this game is a win I see it as one of the more assured losses. The Texans assuming they are healthy have a Top 5 defense and a QB who looks like he is Aaron Rodgers 2.0. Best case scenario is the defense can keep it something like 17-6 at the start of the fourth before the Texans pull away and we score in garbage time late.

Bills 2-4 on the season.

 

Week 7 @ Indianapolis Colts Win 24-17

Even with Luck the Colts need a lot of pieces at this point to be competitive. This is game I could see the Bills front 7 dominating throughout and not giving the IND QB much time. Additionally IND defense is still very porous and the Bills offense should have opportunities to move the ball pretty well. I could see this game as one where Allen has a chance to throw over 300 yards for the first time given the caliber of opponents before this.

Bills 3-4 on the season

 

Week 8 New England Loss 24-14

I am at the point I won't ever pick the Bills to beat NE unless its week 17 when it doesn't matter for the Patriots. That said I do not think they are the juggernaut they've been their WR corp has taken some hits, their defense is a middling unit that lacks guys up front, and in general there does seem to be some shakiness in the organization. They still are Top 2 in the AFC but I think the Bills can make a game of it where it is close late in the fourth with the Patriots needing a late FG to pull away. I don't doubt our crowd or the defense playing lights out but the offense I just think needs more time.

Bills 3-5 on the season

 

So midpoint of the season I have the Bills at 3-5 and truthfully I wouldn't be disappointed as long as the defense played strong and Allen shows signs of growth. I also think people predicting records .500 or better are severely underestimating the difficulty of teams like Houston and Baltimore while overrating our offense chance to succeed. It is very rare for a rookie QB to come in given the lack of parts we have and tear it from day 1. For every success story there are 10 failures or growing pains type seasons that a rookie QB has.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Nobody takes an unknown and turns it into a guaranteed negative like ScottLaw.

I mean, is he wrong?  What would be the Vegas line for us averaging 25 points/ games?  I think if we win this year, it’s going to be 17-14 type games.

[GunnerBill]

Too early for me. I always do a full 16 game schedule prediction during the pre-season with scores and a bit of colour for fun too.  In 2016 I was strikingly accurate although was one game out on the record as I had them winning week 1 at Baltimore.  Last season I had them 5-3 at mid season (which they were) but then had them slumping to 7-9 and obviously the Bills came home at 9-7.  

[The Now Moment]

43 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean, is he wrong?  What would be the Vegas line for us averaging 25 points/ games?  I think if we win this year, it’s going to be 17-14 type games.

How many people predicted Minnesota's offense to be what it was last year with journeyman Case Keenum as the starter and a rookie running back?  Who predicted Houston's putrid offense to become the force it became by the entry of their rookie QB.  They were horrid and then their offense kept them in almost every game while Watson was playing.  It doesn't matter what anyone including vegas predicts now, we have too much roster turnover to know what the offense will be.  Some people lean towards the optimistic view in the mist of uncertainty and some lean towards the pessimistic view.

Edited May 22, 2018 by Buffalo30

[eball]

57 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean, is he wrong?  What would be the Vegas line for us averaging 25 points/ games?  I think if we win this year, it’s going to be 17-14 type games.

 

He's making a prediction in advance of even knowing who will line up at the positions.  That's the very definition of pessimism.  He's neither right nor wrong.

[billsredneck1]

12 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

Part 2 of the Season Preview from my perspective

 

Week 5 At home vs Tennessee

 

Bills coming home after a pair of tough NFC North matchups.  Tennessee wants to play run orientated smash mouth football but finds the Bills defense a tough nut to crack.  Bills back 7 shuts down Titans subpar passing game and then takes the lead forcing the Titans into catch-up mode.  Late turnovers seal the game as the passing game begins to click and make plays.  One score lead going into the 4th quarter extends to a 13 point victory.

 

Bills 27 Titans 14

 

Week 6 @ Houston

 

Bills take their road show for the 4th time in 6 outings and head down to Houston to take on the Texans.  Bills defensive line dominates this game stuffing the running game and putting pressure on Deshon Watson and his receivers.  Bills struggle against Texans front 7 and game moves into 4th quarter tied at 13.  Bills running game comes to the rescue and generates a long TD drive and the secondary comes down with a late interception to seal the victory.  Final score

 

Bills 20 Texans 13

 

Week 7 at Indianapolis

 

The road show moves to Indy as they take on the rebuilding Colts.  Andrew Luck makes Indy better and additions on the offensive line help his protection and running game, but the Bills are the better squad and maintain an edge throughout.  Running the ball well, controlling the clock and special teams winning the field position battle.  Three Haushka fg's and three TD's are enough to handle late Luck led comeback, final score

 

Bills 30 Colts 24

 

Week 8 Home for Monday Night football vs New England

 

Crazy atmosphere right before Halloween ? and the added incentive of Thurman's jersey Retirement make for a loud wild Monday night with the division leading Patriots.  Wild back and forth game with Brady having some success but not as much as usual.  Bills also moving the ball well with Shady and Ivory.  As usual Bills dominating the special teams.  But a late Brady TD pass fuels the comeback so the final score

 

Patriots 27 Bills 24

 

So, midpoint of the season the Bills are 5-3, 2nd place in the AFC EAST, 5th seed in the AFC with 5-1 conference record.

 

 

 

 

Yep I'm on board here and figure 2_2 over the first four. After ne. comes the kick butt win streak enroute to 11-5.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Buffalo30 said:

How many people predicted Minnesota's offense to be what it was last year with journeyman Case Keenum as the starter and a rookie running back?  Who predicted Houston's putrid offense to become the force it became by the entry of their rookie QB.  They were horrid and then their offense kept them in almost every game while Watson was playing.  It doesn't matter what anyone including vegas predicts now, we have too much roster turnover to know what the offense will be.  Some people lean towards the optimistic view in the mist of uncertainty and some lean towards the pessimistic view.

Obviously that can happen.  There’s not much to suggest that given our OC, whoever the qb is, an oline who has to replace 4 starters, & one of the worst receiving groups to predict that.

 

maybe AJ is Tom Brady.  More likely, he is a backup type qb who is getting miscasted as a starter.

[eball]

@ScottLaw since you think the Bills' WRs are crap before you've even seen the offense this year, here's a tweet from our own @Astrobot that shows at least someone has a different, more neutral, perspective:

 

#Bills have 5 WRs with >65 pro/college grades from PFF: 
Austin Proehl  80.3
Kelvin Benjamin 79.1
Jeremy Kerley  73.7
Ray-Ray McCloud  68.5
Rod Streater  65.2
That doesn't include potential breakout WRs Zay Jones (43.6), Cam Phillips, and Robert Foster, as well as Andre Holmes.

 

Benjamin is legit.  Kerley has had success.  Streater looked great last offseason until he got hurt.  I know you don't like Jones but he has talent, and both rookies have high grades.

[The Now Moment]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Obviously that can happen.  There’s not much to suggest that given our OC, whoever the qb is, an oline who has to replace 4 starters, & one of the worst receiving groups to predict that.

 

maybe AJ is Tom Brady.  More likely, he is a backup type qb who is getting miscasted as a starter.

Adam Thielen for Minnesota was an undrafted FA and became Minnesota's number one wide receiver.  With a different QB, the wide receivers can certainly improve. Look at what Thielen did with Keenum.  Players can develop a chemistry and become very productive regardless of their past play.  Again I say, you can choose to be pessimistic but offenses can turn around in one year.  It happens every year. 

[C.Biscuit97]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Adam Thielen for Minnesota was an undrafted FA and became Minnesota's number one wide receiver.  With a different QB, the wide receivers can certainly improve. Look at what Thielen did with Keenum.  Players can develop a chemistry and become very productive regardless of their past play.  Again I say, you can choose to be pessimistic but offenses can turn around in one year.  It happens every year. 

Thielen kinda broke out in 2016.  I want you to be right but if I had to money on it, I’d bet we have a bottom 10 offense.  The lack of speed/ line play is going to make McCoy see a lot of defenders in the box.  Daboll has yet to shown he is some dynamic offensive wizard plus McDermott probably favors a conservative type offense. Obviously JMO

[The Now Moment]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thielen kinda broke out in 2016.  I want you to be right but if I had to money on it, I’d bet we have a bottom 10 offense.  The lack of speed/ line play is going to make McCoy see a lot of defenders in the box.  Daboll has yet to shown he is some dynamic offensive wizard plus McDermott probably favors a conservative type offense. Obviously JMO

Thielen had similar numbers numbers to what Benjamin had in 2014 and 2016 before, why can't Benjamin have a breakout season with the new QB?  Zay Jones dominated in college, with a new QB he could break out.  System fit for a QB can completely change what the weapons on a team do.

 

Tyrod was good at many things but he was not a very good passer.  He wasn't willing to throw the ball in tight windows and that is what Benjamin does best, wins the 50/50 balls.  I think our wide receiver core is not great but is better than the pessimistic fans give them credit for.  Tyrod needed a specific type of wide receiver and the guys we had last year didn't fit him. They made Tyrod try to fit what the coaching staff was trying to do rather than the other way around and why shouldn't they have?  Tyrod was nothing special even with Sammy and Woods who fit him better.  They clearly wanted to build their team around a drafted QB that fit their system better.  

 

They offense is a huge question mark this year and I don't think we can look at last year as an example of what our weapons can do because of Tyrod.  The chemistry was clearly not there.  

[corta765]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Thielen had similar numbers numbers to what Benjamin had in 2014 and 2016 before, why can't Benjamin have a breakout season with the new QB?  Zay Jones dominated in college, with a new QB he could break out.  System fit for a QB can completely change what the weapons on a team do.

 

Tyrod was good at many things but he was not a very good passer.  He wasn't willing to throw the ball in tight windows and that is what Benjamin does best, wins the 50/50 balls.  I think our wide receiver core is not great but is better than the pessimistic fans give them credit for.  Tyrod needed a specific type of wide receiver and the guys we had last year didn't fit him. They made Tyrod try to fit what the coaching staff was trying to do rather than the other way around and why shouldn't they have?  Tyrod was nothing special even with Sammy and Woods who fit him better.  They clearly wanted to build their team around a drafted QB that fit their system better.  

 

They offense is a huge question mark this year and I don't think we can look at last year as an example of what our weapons can do because of Tyrod.  The chemistry was clearly not there.  

 

Sorry but that is grossly wrong. 2015 Tyrod Taylor played well enough to be near the Top 10 for QBs and that offense was more then worthy to be a playoff team. They were 13th in points and 13th in yards overall. Just because they were not a high flying passing attack does not mean the offense wasn't successful. Sammy's numbers showed that season what his talent could be when healthy, Woods was his solid 50-60 catches 600-700 yards etc.. 2015 Tyrod is what prompted the contract he received and the ensuing debate over the next two seasons. Everyone going into 2016 said if the offense just stayed at the level it was at and the defense reverted back to 2014 form the Bills would be a really really good team.

 

In regards to the Bills WR Corp people are pessimistic because its so unknown and there isn't a lot to support that they could be good not that will be the case. I could certainly see Benjamin produce like he has when healthy, Zay have a decent rebound year, and Kerley have a nice season in the slot with Charles Clay producing well in the middle. The issue is that we just haven't seen that from many to believe. By comparison I actually think the Patriots may have some real issues after Edelman and Gronk with Cooks/Amandola gone but they have Brady so people automatically assume they will dominate given past track record. Not saying the Patriots won't be 11-5 12-4 either but this is the weakest their offense overall has looked to me since 2006-07. I understand that is a hot take also but just for comparisons sake switch WR/TE corps would people criticize NE's group the same and credit Buffalo's?

[C.Biscuit97]

55 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Thielen had similar numbers numbers to what Benjamin had in 2014 and 2016 before, why can't Benjamin have a breakout season with the new QB?  Zay Jones dominated in college, with a new QB he could break out.  System fit for a QB can completely change what the weapons on a team do.

 

Tyrod was good at many things but he was not a very good passer.  He wasn't willing to throw the ball in tight windows and that is what Benjamin does best, wins the 50/50 balls.  I think our wide receiver core is not great but is better than the pessimistic fans give them credit for.  Tyrod needed a specific type of wide receiver and the guys we had last year didn't fit him. They made Tyrod try to fit what the coaching staff was trying to do rather than the other way around and why shouldn't they have?  Tyrod was nothing special even with Sammy and Woods who fit him better.  They clearly wanted to build their team around a drafted QB that fit their system better.  

 

They offense is a huge question mark this year and I don't think we can look at last year as an example of what our weapons can do because of Tyrod.  The chemistry was clearly not there.  

Benjamin has gotten worse every season of his career.  His knees are awful and he can’t get separation.  

 

I wasnt the biggest Tyrod fan but it’s funny how everyone blames him for us failing last year.  It was dumb coaches who forced him into a West Coast Offense and traded his best wr a month before the season.  Tyrod was part of a top 10 offense.  It was time to move on from him but I think people are going to be surprised at how our offense is going to struggle.  There is no explosiveness . 

[The Now Moment]

4 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Sorry but that is grossly wrong. 2015 Tyrod Taylor played well enough to be near the Top 10 for QBs and that offense was more then worthy to be a playoff team. They were 13th in points and 13th in yards overall. Just because they were not a high flying passing attack does not mean the offense wasn't successful. Sammy's numbers showed that season what his talent could be when healthy, Woods was his solid 50-60 catches 600-700 yards etc.. 2015 Tyrod is what prompted the contract he received and the ensuing debate over the next two seasons. Everyone going into 2016 said if the offense just stayed at the level it was at and the defense reverted back to 2014 form the Bills would be a really really good team.

 

In regards to the Bills WR Corp people are pessimistic because its so unknown and there isn't a lot to support that they could be good not that will be the case. I could certainly see Benjamin produce like he has when healthy, Zay have a decent rebound year, and Kerley have a nice season in the slot with Charles Clay producing well in the middle. The issue is that we just haven't seen that from many to believe. By comparison I actually think the Patriots may have some real issues after Edelman and Gronk with Cooks/Amandola gone but they have Brady so people automatically assume they will dominate given past track record. Not saying the Patriots won't be 11-5 12-4 either but this is the weakest their offense overall has looked to me since 2006-07. I understand that is a hot take also but just for comparisons sake switch WR/TE corps would people criticize NE's group the same and credit Buffalo's?

Tyrod was not someone I would build an offense around.  That's the point.  He was middle of the road to just above that.  He is a guy who hit the home run ball and then scrambled, that was about it.  He has never been very good at passing the ball on the short and intermediate routes.  His home run balls curved his stats.  We had so many three and out series with him, that is not good for any defense.  

 

I know why people believe we won't do well on offense.  It's not exactly rocket science but fans around here are who are pessimistic to the core believe that to be fact as if the season has already happened.  I provided a few examples of teams whose offense unexpectedly were very good last year.  It happens every year, players breakout and offenses breakout.  

 

New coach, new scheme, new players including a new QB and everyone seems to know how the offense will turn out.  It's just way too early to come to any conclusions.

[The Now Moment]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Benjamin has gotten worse every season of his career.  His knees are awful and he can’t get separation.  

 

I wasnt the biggest Tyrod fan but it’s funny how everyone blames him for us failing last year.  It was dumb coaches who forced him into a West Coast Offense and traded his best wr a month before the season.  Tyrod was part of a top 10 offense.  It was time to move on from him but I think people are going to be surprised at how our offense is going to struggle.  There is no explosiveness . 

You really think they wanted to keep Tyrod after a coach was just fired by the owners because we didn't win with him?  They want to implement the offensive system that best compliments a solid defense and that isn't what Tyrod brings to the table.  The amount of three and outs he was a part of would drive a defensive coach like McDermott crazy. Benjamin can certainly bounce back, so many players bounce back after injuries now and dominate.  His game is not separation, it never has been.  When will fans realize this?  He is a jump ball player and Tyrod didn't throw the ball into tight windows.  

 

Look at Philly, got their QB and then the following year they added pieces through FA, trades and the draft to build around the QB and won a championship in year two of the young QBs career.  They had a solid defense as well which is what our regime is trying to provide the young QB.  It's almost the exact same footsteps as both Philly and the Rams and both of those teams were wildly successful last year and are looked at as being wildly successful moving forward.  I still don't understand the complaining about the offense.  Rams/Philly both added top wide receivers in year two.  We have our QB now and 100 million dollars in cap space next year to go along with 9 draft picks.  Our defense is coming together nicely and Shady is being shady.  The blueprint of this team is staring fans back in the face with examples of success to back it up and they still are complaining.  I don't understand.

 

 

[richardb1952]

6 hours ago, FluffHead said:

the Kool Aid is particularly strong this time of year

 

It tends to become more bitter once the season starts.

Edited May 22, 2018 by richardb1952

[corta765]

1 minute ago, richardb1952 said:

 

It tends to become more bitter once the season starts.

 

2015 was the highpoint of Kool Aid to the max thanks to Rex and the defense in 2014 plus Shady being added. Training camp was a zoo that season to the point people were criticizing every pass thrown in practice. It was mayhem... and ended after week 2 haha. I don't think this season is even close to that level which is smart. Long term out look is rosy but short term may have some bumps this year.

[SoCal Deek]

I always had fun putting these sorts of projections together when I was a kid. While I definitely appreciate the effort this is one upcoming year when nobody knows how the Bills are going to do. They don’t have a QB. Their WR Corp is really sad and they’ve seen tons of turnover on both the offensive and defensive lines. In short, this should be interesting but their is NO WAY to make these kind of preseason predictions.

Go Bills

[Chandler#81]

2-2, 2-6 overall.