Insightful Analysis From Warren Sharp Reveals Potential Red Flags With Josh Allen as QB

[mead107]

On 4/27/2018 at 11:34 AM, BuffaloRush said:

If you don’t follow Warren Sharp, he seems probably the smartest analytics guy in football.  He’s literally come out of nowhere this season and his insights are definitely informative.  

 

Stay with the tweets below about Josh Allen.   The gist is, not only was his completion percentage low last season but Wyoming coaches didn’t trust him to throw the football.  They chose to run the ball more, despite the fact that their rushing offense was far more ineffective than passing, and against defense who were far war against the pass.  Coaches didn’t want the ball in Allen’s hands during crunch time.  

 

Look, based on his statistics the odds are against Allen developing into something special.  I get why fans are freaking out

 

You can read the tweets below.  There are probably about 10 of them,  but stick with it.  Great analysis here:

 

 

 

 

 

And what mans him an expert this year?  Came out of what ?  

Pick 7th round and Brady was a bust

[Mat68]

College stats have never correlated to NFL success at Qb.  Really there are 2 things, natural ability and drive.  No one knows how hard a 20 something will work when they can have anything they want. Analytics got Clevelands lasy regime fired.  They out thought themselves with Wentz.

[MakeBuffaloGreatAgain]

On 4/27/2018 at 8:43 AM, jrober38 said:

 

The analysis is that their running game was horrible, yet they ran the ball more than they passed despite playing several horrible pass defenses. 

HEY, IT'S JROBER!!! the eternal pessimist piece of garbage! Glad to see you over here on this board! I see you are still the exception to natural selection... yeesh, cut those wrists already.

[stuvian]

those Wyoming teams were terrible. If they ran more is was to save Josh Allen from worse beatings than he endured

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, stuvian said:

those Wyoming teams were terrible. If they ran more is was to save Josh Allen from worse beatings than he endured

 

If anyone wants to see how bad Allen's supporting cast in 2017 was (both his teammates and the offensive coaches) just watch the Oregon game. 

 

1. An OC incapable of scheming receivers open

2. Young and talent-challenged receivers incapable of getting open individually against Oregon players

3. OLine incapable of blocking a 4 man pash rush

4. No running game

 

Any single one of the top prospects in this year's class in the same position would have taken a dump on the field. Most NFL starting QB's as well.

 

 

[Big Turk]

On 4/27/2018 at 11:38 AM, Mikey152 said:

He makes a pretty big assumption that it was because of Allen...and not their offensive line, receivers, etc.  All this shows is that maybe they didn't trust their passing game...not their quarterback.

 

Not to mention the fact that he played in the Mountain West...aka not the south.  There's this little thing called weather.

 

He also makes a big assumption that these coaches properly coached him as well...its suspect that Allen received quality coaching at Wyoming...those type of coaches dont end up there.

 

Perhaps its an idictment on the coaches ability to get the most out of their offense? Their receivers had some of the worst separation distance in all of college football so its not like they did a good job with the receivers

Edited May 4, 2018 by matter2003

[Zerovoltz]

 

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

College stats have never correlated to NFL success at Qb.  Really there are 2 things, natural ability and drive.  No one knows how hard a 20 something will work when they can have anything they want. Analytics got Clevelands lasy regime fired.  They out thought themselves with Wentz.

 

I agree with your initial statement that college stats have never correlated to NFL Success....there is a long long list of college superstars who won trophies and put up "numbers" that bombed in the NFL.  However, there is a stat that's been thrown out about completion percentage in college correlating to NFL failure.  

 

Someone posted an argument in here in another thread about Josh Allen having not been raised up going to clinics and camps and etc etc....and on and on..and that he is only just now getting real coaching etc.  I'd buy in 100% to that argument IF he had show improvement throughout his college career.  The biggest red flag to me was that his completion pct was low at JUCO, and no one out in southern california thought they could coach him up..not even the minor players out there like Fresno State or SD State or San Jose State, who have put QBs into the NFL, and always get beat to the top talents by USC, Stanford, UCLA etc...they passed.  Even still, Wyoming takes the kid.  ....His completion pct sucked. it sucked again, and it never quit sucking.  It would bother me a great deal to see that those mid majors out in California, again, who have put QB's in the NFL...Carr, Fales, ...didn't think they could coach that out of him.  ....and then he goes to Wyoming, and those guys for whatever reason...failed to coach him up.  

 

Now, I am looking at this from a far...so I am sure I am missing something here..but....The same coach (and GM) decided that a guy who had already has a 62.4 pct completion pct with 51 passing TDs against 18 pics, who has thrown for 9054 yards and rushed for 1700 yards and 15 TDs....that guys flaws can't be fixed......but they beleive they can "fix" Josh Allen?  .....I'm not here to promote Tyrod Taylor.  He may be Alex Smith light...not willing to throw downfield...takes off running out of clean pockets on 3rd and 8 and gains 3 and you punt....From what I have read, it may well be that Taylor had some of that going on....and if you decide that you are moving on from that...that is fine...it doens't change my point.

 

The coaching staff couldn't fix the NFL QB who again has a stat line of 62.4% 9054 Yds, 51 TDS, 18 ints, 1700 rushing and 15 rush TD...but they can fix this other guy that almost no one thought was fixable, and then in college, didn't improve after the guys who thought he was fixable brought him into their program......

 

I really hope it works out for you all....you deserve a great QB.

[JoeF]

 

 

Wonder if Warren counted all the plays at the end of this game where the main ball carrier was none other than Josh Allen....looks like his coach has a lot of faith in him here...

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

If anyone wants to see how bad Allen's supporting cast in 2017 was (both his teammates and the offensive coaches) just watch the Oregon game. 

 

1. An OC incapable of scheming receivers open

2. Young and talent-challenged receivers incapable of getting open individually against Oregon players

3. OLine incapable of blocking a 4 man pash rush

4. No running game

 

Any single one of the top prospects in this year's class in the same position would have taken a dump on the field. Most NFL starting QB's as well.

 

 

Two things

 

His receivers are so bad.....throws hit them right in the hands and they wont hang onto a ball because they have to take a hit.

 

Where are the easy college passes.....why are they not in Wyo playbook.....everything is vertical and the receivers suck

 

Pass blocking is just horrible

 

 

[Protocal69]

12 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

No I don’t play Draft Kings.  It really seems

that this season he’s gotten quite a bit more mainstream appearances on shows etc

I will give you the main stream thing, but analytics only gives you part of the story sometimes

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

 

Now, I am looking at this from a far...so I am sure I am missing something here..but....The same coach (and GM) decided that a guy who had already has a 62.4 pct completion pct with 51 passing TDs against 18 pics, who has thrown for 9054 yards and rushed for 1700 yards and 15 TDs....that guys flaws can't be fixed......but they beleive they can "fix" Josh Allen?  .....I'm not here to promote Tyrod Taylor.  He may be Alex Smith light...not willing to throw downfield...takes off running out of clean pockets on 3rd and 8 and gains 3 and you punt....From what I have read, it may well be that Taylor had some of that going on....and if you decide that you are moving on from that...that is fine...it doens't change my point.

 

The coaching staff couldn't fix the NFL QB who again has a stat line of 62.4% 9054 Yds, 51 TDS, 18 ints, 1700 rushing and 15 rush TD...but they can fix this other guy that almost no one thought was fixable, and then in college, didn't improve after the guys who thought he was fixable brought him into their program......

 

I really hope it works out for you all....you deserve a great QB.

 

So I am the opposite of a Tyrod defender. Alex Smith light is a fair description although his issue was less that he wouldn't throw deep and more that he wouldn't throw. He holds it, holds it, holds it.... then runs around and then we punt. Open receivers be damned.  But he would almost certainly have been a better starter for the Bills in 2018 than the guys we have on the roster.

 

That said, and while I am also a sceptical on Allen's chances of reaching his potential, I don't think you should read "couldn't improve Tyrod" as "won't be able to correct Allen".  Tyrod's issues are not correctable because you can never give him that natural feel for playing Quarterback, you can never make him see the field better, you can never make him more decisive and you can not teach him to be a rhythm passer. Rick Dennison tried, and tried really hard, at the start of last season to run some very, very simple rhythm passing concepts where the release should be timed with the feet.  Tyrod couldn't execute them.  He won't ever be able to execute them.  Allen's issues are different. Are they easy to correct? No I'm not sure they are but they are certainly different.   

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 4/27/2018 at 11:56 AM, dorquemada said:

 

one of the worst things that football analysts and fans do is misunderstand the difference between correlation and causation.  If you've taken any college level statistics, it's not hard to see how statistics can be manipulated to make any case you want, without any rigor of having to prove causation.  This is a good example of that.  Are there any other factors that might have played into the coach wanting to run more?  Weather?  Player skillsets? coaching comfort level and preference?  running the clock out?  this guy's analysis looks at what, 2 maybe 3 variables which isn't anywhere near enough.  when i was taking grad level stats in the early 90s, one of the other guys and I built a football predicting algorithm in SPSS.  We kept fiddling with it and applying various weights to the statistics to see how it affected the accuracy of the predictive model.  We learned a few things:

 

1.  Football games are hard to predict accurately.

2.  Defensive statistics carry about 10% more predictive value than offensive statistics

3.  Except for a few notable exceptions, turnover gradient (+/-) is probably the single biggest indicator of success.  That was in the early 90s, the game has changed some I realize

4.  After fiddling with it for 2 seasons, and plugging some historical data into the model we got it to about 68% ATS.  This was when the stats came out of the world almanac because the web didn't/barely existed then

 

I may try to resurrect my model.  My wife just connected with that guy's wife on facebook, we havent been in touch in 20 years so if I can find time i'll do it.   The larger point is, football is close to immune to real analysis so let's not get overwrought because one guy nobody ever heard of is caremad about allen

 

Boom.

[Andy1]

Here is a quote from reporter Brandon Foster,  who covered Wyoming football, as he explains the difference in the offense from 2016-17:   "The O-line regressed and the run game disappeared. Allen actually became a bigger part of the offense, as Wyoming incorporated more QB keepers and read-option stuff out of necessity."

 

That may explain why the pass % went down last year. 

[MrEpsYtown]

"it’s a big in my opinion"

 

Yeah that's it. A guy's internet opinion based on conjecture and his own bias. 

[scribo]

Wyo's oline was not good. They ran the ball early to keep the dline honest. Allen was still running for his life, but imagine if they didn't have to even think about stopping the run.