Why I would be worried if the Bills drafted Allen

[maryland-bills-fan]

Josh Allen has the look of what you want in a QB.  A big guy who can throw it through a brick wall.   Good character- not a butt-head.   What bothers me about him is that he played at a low level of competition and did poorly when facing teams in the top 50.  I wonder if he ever played against more than a handful of NFL-quality defensive backs in his 2 year college career. (Reedly JC for  first two years).  Usually, you want to see the guy do good against the top competition, or if he is at a lower level, he should dominate.  I don't see that he did that.  Let's look at his 2017 results and opponents.

 

 

The Mountain West compiled a .436 winning percentage in nonconference play, the third-worst clip in the FBS.    It is the 7th ranked conference in the ncaa.  

 

Hawaii, New Mexico and San Jose State all mustered a single conference triumph, and Nevada joined the trio with a 3-9 record or worse.

 

 

2017 Game Log			Passing								Rushing					QBR
DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	RAW QBR	ADJ QBR
9/2	@Iowa	L 24-3	23	40	174	57.5	23	0	2	84.0	8	-10	-1.3	11	0	29.6	48.8
9/9	Gardner-Webb	W 27-0	22	32	328	68.8	47	2	0	175.5	0	0	0.0	0	0	96.1	89.3
9/16	Oregon	L 49-13	9	24	64	37.5	21	0	1	51.6	8	25	3.1	10	1	6.9	9.4
9/23	Hawai'i	W 28-21 (OT)	9	19	92	47.4	25	1	0	105.4	6	17	2.8	22	0	81.9	58.1
9/30	Texas State	W 45-10	14	24	219	58.3	40	3	0	176.2	8	12	1.5	9	0	88.0	75.1
10/14	@Utah State	W 28-23	18	26	208	69.2	28	1	1	141.4	16	36	2.3	16	1	59.0	64.7
10/21	@Boise State	L 24-14	12	27	131	44.4	30	1	2	82.6	18	62	3.4	19	1	62.5	69.6
10/28	New Mexico	W 42-3	16	28	234	57.1	38	4	0	174.5	4	20	5.0	11	1	77.7	61.5
11/4	Colorado State	W 16-13	10	20	138	50.0	21	0	0	108.0	12	60	5.0	18	0	40.9	31.6
11/11	@Air Force	W 28-14	8	11	70	72.7	17	1	0	156.2	4	-15	-3.8	2	1	83.6	66.4
11/18	Fresno State	L 13-7	No statistics available.
11/25	@San Jose State	L 20-17	No statistics available.
12/22	Central Michigan	W 37-14	11	19	154	57.9	45	3	0	178.1	8	-3	-0.4	7	0	88.3

Notice the QB rating against Iowa (29) and Oregon (6.9)    Fairly good teams.   ouch.

 

 

Quote

Team                     rank         game score        QB rating

 

Iowa                       #18       Lost 24-3                   30

Boise State            #33        Lost 24-14              63

Oregon                  #40         Lost 49-13                7

Fresno State        #53          Lost 13-7                   --

Colorado State     #84        Won 16-13               41

Air Force                #93        Won 28-14              84

Utah State              #89        Won 28-23             60

Central Michigan #99         Won 37-14             88

New Mexico          #114       Won 42-3              78

Hawaii                   #154        Won 28-21           82

San Jose State      #179         Lost 20-17          ---

Texas State             #183        Won 45-10          88

Gardner-Webb       #264         Won 27-0            97

 

So his record against ranking was

opponent   no.     record

1-25              1        0-1

26-50            2        0-2

51-100          5       4-1

101-150       1       1-0
151 +          4         3-1

 

I didn't triple check the numbers, so don't nitpick.  Allen did NOT play against top notch opponents.  In the film that you see on him, he is not throwing against too many DB's who will be in the pros.   I'm not a expert, but I don't see consistent success against top notch competition.  I don't see him playing and succeeding against good playeers.    I would be concerned about draft him as a project.

 

Quote

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[LeGOATski]

It bothers me that he missed a target net from ten yards away.

[oldmanfan]

1.  Do the best scouting job you can

 

2.  Draft the guy you think is the answer; move up as needed to get him

 

3.  Hope you made the right call.

 

goes for Allen or anyone else they pick

[maryland-bills-fan]

Sorry for the messed up formatting on the OP.   Tables and embedded stuff doesn't work well for me.

[PIZ]

If they pick him, I will trust the process.

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

1.  Do the best scouting job you can

 

2.  Draft the guy you think is the answer; move up as needed to get him

 

3.  Hope you made the right call.

 

goes for Allen or anyone else they pick

4. Pick a QB who can hit stationary targets.

[Bookie Man]

I want nothing to do with Allen. His game is wildly inconsistent. For every wow throw, he'll make 3 head scratchers. I can't believe he's in the same discussion as Rosen, Mayfield and Darnold. I'd even take Lamar 10 times over Allen. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

You did a good bit of work there OP. Thanks for the input. Allen is the most intriguing prospect for me. I really don’t want the Bills to draft him. I’d rather take any of the other 3 QB’s in the first. Taking Allen is based on glimpses of possible potential, Allen doesn’t have the complete body of work. 

[PIZ]

I do see your point OP, but I also wonder how many NFL quality WRs, TEs, RBs, OL, coaches, etc. he had on his own team.  Level of competition definitely means something, but I also wonder about his own team and people surrounding him.  That is where having an elite scouting department, front office, and coaches come in, as they evaluate these guys.  If they pick him, I trust the process, and believe they picked him because he is the best player for this Bills team.

[billsredneck1]

36 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Josh Allen has the look of what you want in a QB.  A big guy who can throw it through a brick wall.   Good character- not a butt-head.   What bothers me about him is that he played at a low level of competition and did poorly when facing teams in the top 50.  I wonder if he ever played against more than a handful of NFL-quality defensive backs in his 2 year college career. (Reedly JC for  first two years).  Usually, you want to see the guy do good against the top competition, or if he is at a lower level, he should dominate.  I don't see that he did that.  Let's look at his 2017 results and opponents.

 

 

The Mountain West compiled a .436 winning percentage in nonconference play, the third-worst clip in the FBS.    It is the 7th ranked conference in the ncaa.  

 

Hawaii, New Mexico and San Jose State all mustered a single conference triumph, and Nevada joined the trio with a 3-9 record or worse.

 

 

2017 Game Log			Passing								Rushing					QBR
DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	RAW QBR	ADJ QBR
9/2	@Iowa	L 24-3	23	40	174	57.5	23	0	2	84.0	8	-10	-1.3	11	0	29.6	48.8
9/9	Gardner-Webb	W 27-0	22	32	328	68.8	47	2	0	175.5	0	0	0.0	0	0	96.1	89.3
9/16	Oregon	L 49-13	9	24	64	37.5	21	0	1	51.6	8	25	3.1	10	1	6.9	9.4
9/23	Hawai'i	W 28-21 (OT)	9	19	92	47.4	25	1	0	105.4	6	17	2.8	22	0	81.9	58.1
9/30	Texas State	W 45-10	14	24	219	58.3	40	3	0	176.2	8	12	1.5	9	0	88.0	75.1
10/14	@Utah State	W 28-23	18	26	208	69.2	28	1	1	141.4	16	36	2.3	16	1	59.0	64.7
10/21	@Boise State	L 24-14	12	27	131	44.4	30	1	2	82.6	18	62	3.4	19	1	62.5	69.6
10/28	New Mexico	W 42-3	16	28	234	57.1	38	4	0	174.5	4	20	5.0	11	1	77.7	61.5
11/4	Colorado State	W 16-13	10	20	138	50.0	21	0	0	108.0	12	60	5.0	18	0	40.9	31.6
11/11	@Air Force	W 28-14	8	11	70	72.7	17	1	0	156.2	4	-15	-3.8	2	1	83.6	66.4
11/18	Fresno State	L 13-7	No statistics available.
11/25	@San Jose State	L 20-17	No statistics available.
12/22	Central Michigan	W 37-14	11	19	154	57.9	45	3	0	178.1	8	-3	-0.4	7	0	88.3

Notice the QB rating against Iowa (29) and Oregon (6.9)    Fairly good teams.   ouch.

 

 

 

So his record against ranking was

opponent   no.     record

1-25              1        0-1

26-50            2        0-2

51-100          5       4-1

101-150       1       1-0
151 +          4         3-1

 

I didn't triple check the numbers, so don't nitpick.  Allen did NOT play against top notch opponents.  In the film that you see on him, he is not throwing against too many DB's who will be in the pros.   I'm not a expert, but I don't see consistent success against top notch competition.  I don't see him playing and succeeding against good playeers.    I would be concerned about draft him as a project.

 

 

 

 

well he should be there at 12 then....?

[maryland-bills-fan]

Just now, billsredneck1 said:

well he should be there at 12 then....?

I wouldn't take him at #12 myself.   I can not understand why there is such hype about him unless some pundits see who was drafted from a small school last year and want to be first on the bandwagon- and caused a stampede of people wanted to be on the smart side.  Or is it a bunch of smoke screens?     My opinion is that they guy doesn't have a clue about such things as how fast a good corner back can recover and step in to intercept a pass.   They say the game gets faster and faster every level. I wonder if the guy can recalibrate his head to the change in speed. When he sees a WR come open in his league, well the guy is open and he can drill the ball in there.  But with better CB's, its a whole different world.  His record against top 50 teams is poor.  He hasn't shown he can play with the big boys.  Maybe he didn't have to teammates to do so.  Maybe he can't.   Too much of a gamble for the Bills.  I hope somebody takes him ahead of the Bills pick.   For the Bills, its a maybe in the 4th round.

 

 

 

 

 

[BillnutinHouston]

45 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

1.  Do the best scouting job you can

 

2.  Draft the guy you think is the answer; move up as needed to get him

 

3.  Hope you made the right call.

 

goes for Allen or anyone else they pick

 

4. Most importantly, have sufficient coaching quality on staff to DEVELOP the guy you picked.  

[gobills1212]

Fo reals?

[billsredneck1]

i'm kinda thinking it goes...

1. rosen  browns

2. darnold  giants    (or switch 1 and 2. i think the giants would be fools to pass on rosen.)

3  allen  jets  (i'd rather them take allen then mayfield.)

4. browns stay put  (barkley)

5. denver goes non qb  (nelson)

6. indy stays put  (chubb)

7. mayfield in play from here on out........or allen in which case we would probably just have to go to 10 so the fins don't get him. either way, we get one of the top 4 and save picks.

 

btw, i wouldn't be surprised to see chicago jump on mayfield if he was right there.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by billsredneck1

[drf1835]

40 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

4. Pick a QB who can hit stationary targets.

 

 Like when Bill Polian and Mora were deciding on either weaker armed Manning who was significant,y more inaccurate after 50 yard passes, or stronger armed Leaf, Mora basically said to Polian, 'Manning it is, as we will just not have him pass over 50 yards" So, we can just tell our receivers to stop at point a, b or c, and that fastball will be there to knock your head off if you do not catch it. Seriously though, I rather have good guy, strong armed and mobile risk taker Josh Allen than more dink and dunk, injury prone, potential team divider Rosen. I think it is easier to fix footwork and timing mechanics than brittleness and personality, especially if one is smart, which I hear he is.,. Though I would support Rosen and the Bills if he was our qb, and then focus on all his positives and hope it works out as I could make a case for all the top 5 to 6 qbs.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

4. Pick a QB who can hit stationary targets.

Which he can.  The absurdity around here is reaching epic levels.

18 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

4. Most importantly, have sufficient coaching quality on staff to DEVELOP the guy you picked.  

Good point

[Chuck Wagon]

Unless Allen is the smokescreen for everyone, there’s rumors Cleveland, the Giants, the jets and the Bills are all interested. Now that’s not exactly a murderers row of well run teams, but it’s a little better than the “experts” on here pulling up stats and random youtube videos. If we decide Allen is our guy all we can hope we he’s developed properly, same stands for any other QB. 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

1.  Do the best scouting job you can

 

2.  Draft the guy you think is the answer; move up as needed to get him

 

3.  Hope you made the right call.

 

goes for Allen or anyone else they pick

In principle this is exactly right.  It may be difficult in practice.  For instance, people are wildly fooling themselves if they think Denver is not taking a QB.  The only chance is if three are gone and they QBs are gone before the Colts are on the clock.

[Epstein's Mother]

39 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I wouldn't take him at #12 myself.   I can not understand why there is such hype about him unless some pundits see who was drafted from a small school last year and want to be first on the bandwagon- and caused a stampede of people wanted to be on the smart side.  Or is it a bunch of smoke screens?     My opinion is that they guy doesn't have a clue about such things as how fast a good corner back can recover and step in to intercept a pass.   They say the game gets faster and faster every level. I wonder if the guy can recalibrate his head to the change in speed. When he sees a WR come open in his league, well the guy is open and he can drill the ball in there.  But with better CB's, its a whole different world.  His record against top 50 teams is poor.  He hasn't shown he can play with the big boys.  Maybe he didn't have to teammates to do so.  Maybe he can't.   Too much of a gamble for the Bills.  I hope somebody takes him ahead of the Bills pick.   For the Bills, its a maybe in the 4th round.

 

 

Agreed.  There is not much history that suggests a quarterback can become something in the NFL that he wasn't in college.

[Homey D. Clown]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Josh Allen has the look of what you want in a QB.  A big guy who can throw it through a brick wall.   Good character- not a butt-head.   What bothers me about him is that he played at a low level of competition and did poorly when facing teams in the top 50.  I wonder if he ever played against more than a handful of NFL-quality defensive backs in his 2 year college career. (Reedly JC for  first two years).  Usually, you want to see the guy do good against the top competition, or if he is at a lower level, he should dominate.  I don't see that he did that.  Let's look at his 2017 results and opponents.

 

 

The Mountain West compiled a .436 winning percentage in nonconference play, the third-worst clip in the FBS.    It is the 7th ranked conference in the ncaa.  

 

Hawaii, New Mexico and San Jose State all mustered a single conference triumph, and Nevada joined the trio with a 3-9 record or worse.

 

 

2017 Game Log			Passing								Rushing					QBR
DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	RAW QBR	ADJ QBR
9/2	@Iowa	L 24-3	23	40	174	57.5	23	0	2	84.0	8	-10	-1.3	11	0	29.6	48.8
9/9	Gardner-Webb	W 27-0	22	32	328	68.8	47	2	0	175.5	0	0	0.0	0	0	96.1	89.3
9/16	Oregon	L 49-13	9	24	64	37.5	21	0	1	51.6	8	25	3.1	10	1	6.9	9.4
9/23	Hawai'i	W 28-21 (OT)	9	19	92	47.4	25	1	0	105.4	6	17	2.8	22	0	81.9	58.1
9/30	Texas State	W 45-10	14	24	219	58.3	40	3	0	176.2	8	12	1.5	9	0	88.0	75.1
10/14	@Utah State	W 28-23	18	26	208	69.2	28	1	1	141.4	16	36	2.3	16	1	59.0	64.7
10/21	@Boise State	L 24-14	12	27	131	44.4	30	1	2	82.6	18	62	3.4	19	1	62.5	69.6
10/28	New Mexico	W 42-3	16	28	234	57.1	38	4	0	174.5	4	20	5.0	11	1	77.7	61.5
11/4	Colorado State	W 16-13	10	20	138	50.0	21	0	0	108.0	12	60	5.0	18	0	40.9	31.6
11/11	@Air Force	W 28-14	8	11	70	72.7	17	1	0	156.2	4	-15	-3.8	2	1	83.6	66.4
11/18	Fresno State	L 13-7	No statistics available.
11/25	@San Jose State	L 20-17	No statistics available.
12/22	Central Michigan	W 37-14	11	19	154	57.9	45	3	0	178.1	8	-3	-0.4	7	0	88.3

Notice the QB rating against Iowa (29) and Oregon (6.9)    Fairly good teams.   ouch.

 

 

 

So his record against ranking was

opponent   no.     record

1-25              1        0-1

26-50            2        0-2

51-100          5       4-1

101-150       1       1-0
151 +          4         3-1

 

I didn't triple check the numbers, so don't nitpick.  Allen did NOT play against top notch opponents.  In the film that you see on him, he is not throwing against too many DB's who will be in the pros.   I'm not a expert, but I don't see consistent success against top notch competition.  I don't see him playing and succeeding against good playeers.    I would be concerned about draft him as a project.

 

 

 

 

 

I feel like he'll be another Paxton Lynch

[BmarvB]

Regardless of which QB they pick, it's still up to the coaching staff to develop him properly. With experience and good coaching, Allen could turn out OK.

[HiddenInLight]

The guy is basically a young EJ Manuel.  Everything that happens around this guy reminds me of EJ,  Hype started to really take off after the senior bowl.  People talking about how he could go very early despite the fact that they have a 2nd round grade on him.  He has all the measurables you want and a great arm, but not great accuracy.  His mechanics need a lot of work.....They are all things that we said about EJ right before he was drafted.  I was in the EJ camp at the time, but I really don't want to go through that again.  I'm tired of never being able to come back in a game because we can't move the ball in the pass game.  I'm tired of considering a 200 yard game exceptional.  Lets get a real QB and make this team relevant again.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, HiddenInLight said:

The guy is basically a young EJ Manuel.  Everything that happens around this guy reminds me of EJ,  Hype started to really take off after the senior bowl.  People talking about how he could go very early despite the fact that they have a 2nd round grade on him.  He has all the measurables you want and a great arm, but not great accuracy.  His mechanics need a lot of work.....They are all things that we said about EJ right before he was drafted.  I was in the EJ camp at the time, but I really don't want to go through that again.  I'm tired of never being able to come back in a game because we can't move the ball in the pass game.  I'm tired of considering a 200 yard game exceptional.  Lets get a real QB and make this team relevant again.

 

Partly I agree, and partly I see genuine differences. 

 

Allen played in a much more pro-like offense than EJM, who was a spread-offense guy who made half-field reads in college and had the accompanying spread-offense-guy completion stats.  Allen, in contrast, was asked to play under center and make pro-style progressions.  So in that regard, he's way ahead of EJM and possibly ahead of anyplace EJM will get to - certainly ahead of where EJM got to with the Bills.

 

But yes, I do hear echos of the EJM pre-draft descriptions in what people write about Allen, reflecting I think, the fact that Allen is widely recognized as being a potential franchise QB, but to need significant development before he becomes that.  And yes, it worries me.

 

32 minutes ago, BmarvB said:

Regardless of which QB they pick, it's still up to the coaching staff to develop him properly. With experience and good coaching, Allen could turn out OK.

 

OK, so this is the thing that scares me.  I do not know if we have the right QB coach in place to develop a young passer.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[elltrain22]

He's not my  first or second choice, but I trust our decision makers, and although stats are something to base opinions on, they don't necessarily make someone a good or bad prospect. I think Allen has alot of intrigue and possibility, and if we draft him, I'll be his biggest fan/supporter! Go Bills!!

[maryland-bills-fan]

33 minutes ago, elltrain22 said:

He's not my  first or second choice, but I trust our decision makers, and although stats are something to base opinions on, they don't necessarily make someone a good or bad prospect. I think Allen has alot of intrigue and possibility, and if we draft him, I'll be his biggest fan/supporter! Go Bills!!

I got no problem with rooting for him like mad if the Bills pick him.  I've been a homer for a long time. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Why I would be worried: 

-Dave Culley

-Lack of arm talent

-That picture of him in the Pats gear

 

Why I would NOT be worried:

-The Process

-Have to trust it

[FeelingOnYouboty]

For me at least all the goodwill that Beane and McDermott have built up will be erased if they take Josh Allen let alone trading assets for Josh Allen. 

[starrymessenger]

Josh Allen is an unusual and fascinating case. I don't put too much emphasis on the conference he comes from, level of competition etc... When he is on he looks like a man amongst boys - regardless of the surrounding talent, be it good or bad. It's absolutely imperative that he go to the right team where he won't be press ganged into early service, where he can sit and learn behind a legit veteran starter and can benefit from the teachings of a good QB coach. 

Comparing him to a guy like EJ is a superficial, rudimentary and inaccurate analysis. He is 10x the prospect EJ was and a legitimate 1st round guy. A risky pick to be sure and if he winds up having to start behind a team like last year's Browns he will likely bust.

This year's QB class is exceptional IMO. Now is the time to get one.

[LeGOATski]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Which he can.  The absurdity around here is reaching epic levels.

Yeah. He can.

 

He also can't. Remember him missing the stationary target net during senior bowl week.

 

He'll be hitting the medical tent in camp, too.

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

Josh Allen is an unusual and fascinating case. I don't put too much emphasis on the conference he comes from, level of competition etc... When he is on he looks like a man amongst boys - regardless of the surrounding talent, be it good or bad. It's absolutely imperative that he go to the right team where he won't be press ganged into early service, where he can sit and learn behind a legit veteran starter and can benefit from the teachings of a good QB coach. 

Comparing him to a guy like EJ is a superficial, rudimentary and inaccurate analysis. He is 10x the prospect EJ was and a legitimate 1st round guy. A risky pick to be sure and if he winds up having to start behind a team like last year's Browns he will likely bust.

This year's QB class is exceptional IMO. Now is the time to get one.

Yep.  He did look like a man amoungst boys when he beat the Bulldogs 27-0.   They were ranked #264 in Division I.   And when they played Oregon.....  ??

 

 

Gardner-Webb

W 27-0

22

32

328

68.8

47

2

0

175.5

0

0

0.0

0

0

96.1

89.3

[Charlottebillsfan2]

Allen is going #1 to the Browns. So don't sweat it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

In principle this is exactly right.  It may be difficult in practice.  For instance, people are wildly fooling themselves if they think Denver is not taking a QB.  The only chance is if three are gone and they QBs are gone before the Colts are on the clock.

 

I really think this is BS as written.  People are wildly fooling themselves if they think Denver is locked into drafting "a QB" with the 5th pick.  That's not why they signed Keenum to a 2 year contract and have already invested $18M in the QB position for this year.

 

I think you probably know as much as I do about how it works, but for those who don't:

Either literally or electronically, the Broncos have a draft board with positions from (say) top to bottom, and the players lined up with their grade at those positions from L to R. 

 

It is very unlikely that the Broncs organization has the exact same or even similar grades on all the top QB, because they're different guys with different strengths, weaknesses, and personalities.  

 

Chances are they have 1 or 2 they consider worth the #5 pick. 

 

It's also unlikely that the Browns, Giants, and Jets have the same grades (because, different strengths weaknesses personalities).  So let's say the guy the Broncs like best is still there at #5.  Will they draft a QB?  You Betcha!

 

OTOH, let's say the Broncs two top graded guys are gone or they only had one QB they have a top-5 grade on and he's gone.  Will they stay put and take a QB?  Not necessarily.  They may move to the other positions where they have players who grade that high left, or, they may entertain a trade-down if they feel fairly comfortable the guy they want will still be there. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[starrymessenger]

24 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yep.  He did look like a man amoungst boys when he beat the Bulldogs 27-0.   They were ranked #264 in Division I.   And when they played Oregon.....  ??

 

 

Gardner-Webb

W 27-0

22

32

328

68.8

47

2

0

175.5

0

0

0.0

0

0

96.1

89.3

 

The point is he also looked like a man amongst boys when he came out (the second time) in the senior bowl game where he was surrounded by better talent on both sides of the ball (and not just one one side, like the other side to be more specific, the couple of times he squared off against power 5 competition in 2017). 

Its pretty obvious that he's a risky pick, too risky for me as a Bills fan, but if he's drafted by the right team he's a good pick and every bit a first round talent. I hope he gets the help he needs to develop and I wish him the best. Odds are against him perhaps but if he pans out he will be fun to watch (but not play against).

[maryland-bills-fan]

Yea but.  The senior bowl has special rules that keeps the defenses from doing anything strange or that may hurt a QB.  We did not see how he handled pressure or disguised defenses.

 

All blocks below the waist are prohibited.

Pass rush games are prohibited at all times. Only four rushers allowed, no 5-man pressures or blitzes from secondary permitted.

Fronts

• • a. In Base, only an Under front will be permitted in both 4-3/3-4 schemes.
    • 1. 4-3 UNDER, traditional lineup with strong-side linebacker over TE and remaining two linebackers in "box" and off-the-line of scrimmage.
    • 2. 3-4 UNDER, strong-side linebacker (Sam) aligns over TE, with two “box" linebackers off-the-line and weak-side linebacker reduced as the 4th rusher (not allowed to drop into pass coverage).
  • b. Linebackers and defensive ends are not permitted to switch positions.
  • c. In Sub, only an EVEN front with four-down defensive linemen and the Center
    left uncovered will be permitted.

Pass Coverage

• a. Zone
   
  • 1. Two-deep or Three-deep zone coverage only.
     
  • 2. Safety rotation to curl/flat only. In Base, Under/Cover-6 will be a zone call that allows the free safety to rotate to the weak-side of the offensive formation. In Sub, Even/Cover-3 will be a zone call that allows the strong safety to rotate to the strong-side of the offensive formation. No safeties are allowed to insert or switch coverage responsibility with the linebacker assigned to his side (no “buzz” rotation allowed).
  • 3. The deep middle safety must be aligned between the hash-marks when the ball is snapped.
     
• b. Man-to-Man
  • 1. Man coverage with a free safety only. Press technique is permitted.  Etc etc etc

 

 

 

https://www.seniorbowl.com/playing-rules.php

 

The senior bowl did not show how he might react to real pressure or how much instant smarts he has.  (They want an entertaining game and don't want players to get hurt).   They take a lot of weapons out of the hands of the defense and play into the profile of a big guy with a bit arm.   I don't think it shows how he would have done in a big time program, but it is better to have looked good than bad there.

 

[4merper4mer]

55 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I really think this is BS as written.  People are wildly fooling themselves if they think Denver is locked into drafting "a QB" with the 5th pick.  That's not why they signed Keenum to a 2 year contract and have already invested $18M in the QB position for this year.

 

I think you probably know as much as I do about how it works, but for those who don't:

Either literally or electronically, the Broncos have a draft board with positions from (say) top to bottom, and the players lined up with their grade at those positions from L to R. 

 

It is very unlikely that the Broncs organization has the exact same or even similar grades on all the top QB, because they're different guys with different strengths, weaknesses, and personalities.  

 

Chances are they have 1 or 2 they consider worth the #5 pick. 

 

It's also unlikely that the Browns, Giants, and Jets have the same grades (because, different strengths weaknesses personalities).  So let's say the guy the Broncs like best is still there at #5.  Will they draft a QB?  You Betcha!

 

OTOH, let's say the Broncs two top graded guys are gone or they only had one QB they have a top-5 grade on and he's gone.  Will they stay put and take a QB?  Not necessarily.  They may move to the other positions where they have players who grade that high left, or, they may entertain a trade-down if they feel fairly comfortable the guy they want will still be there. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dude I definitely typed it poorly or autocorrect killed it but Denver is taking a QB at 5 unless they hate whoever becomes the leftover after QBs are picked 123. For Pete's say I saw Keenum himself acknowledge as much on TV this morning.

[starrymessenger]

34 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yea but.  The senior bowl has special rules that keeps the defenses from doing anything strange or that may hurt a QB.  We did not see how he handled pressure or disguised defenses.

 

All blocks below the waist are prohibited.

Pass rush games are prohibited at all times. Only four rushers allowed, no 5-man pressures or blitzes from secondary permitted.

Fronts

• • a. In Base, only an Under front will be permitted in both 4-3/3-4 schemes.
    • 1. 4-3 UNDER, traditional lineup with strong-side linebacker over TE and remaining two linebackers in "box" and off-the-line of scrimmage.
    • 2. 3-4 UNDER, strong-side linebacker (Sam) aligns over TE, with two “box" linebackers off-the-line and weak-side linebacker reduced as the 4th rusher (not allowed to drop into pass coverage).
  • b. Linebackers and defensive ends are not permitted to switch positions.
  • c. In Sub, only an EVEN front with four-down defensive linemen and the Center
    left uncovered will be permitted.

Pass Coverage

• a. Zone
   
  • 1. Two-deep or Three-deep zone coverage only.
     
  • 2. Safety rotation to curl/flat only. In Base, Under/Cover-6 will be a zone call that allows the free safety to rotate to the weak-side of the offensive formation. In Sub, Even/Cover-3 will be a zone call that allows the strong safety to rotate to the strong-side of the offensive formation. No safeties are allowed to insert or switch coverage responsibility with the linebacker assigned to his side (no “buzz” rotation allowed).
  • 3. The deep middle safety must be aligned between the hash-marks when the ball is snapped.
     
• b. Man-to-Man
  • 1. Man coverage with a free safety only. Press technique is permitted.  Etc etc etc

 

 

 

https://www.seniorbowl.com/playing-rules.php

 

The senior bowl did not show how he might react to real pressure or how much instant smarts he has.  (They want an entertaining game and don't want players to get hurt).   They take a lot of weapons out of the hands of the defense and play into the profile of a big guy with a bit arm.   I don't think it shows how he would have done in a big time program, but it is better to have looked good than bad there.

 

 

Point well taken. It's not flag football in shorts but it's not full throttle either.

But frankly my impression is that Allen would have looked a lot better in a big time college program like the ones he so desperately tried to gain admission to even if the competition would also have been at a higher level. He was better in 2016 than he was in 2017 before losing 4 skill position players to the NFL. He did not execute a QB friendly offence either and I'd have to think that with a tailored scheme, a ground game and blue chip receiving talent surrounding him (think Mayfield, Rudolph and others from amongst this year's class) his college stats would have been much improved. No one did him any favours. If people insist on comparing him to those QBs my response is to say that he's then not really a 56% completion percentage guy (even if that's his actual number).

Decision making and pocket presence are open questions but the porousness of his O-line was not. He was often having to execute a jail break and one would reasonably expect that had a lot to do with his skittishness.