Mr. WEO Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Not just catches, look at targets when assessing Landry. He gets 10 targets per game, and ranked tied for 3rd in the NFL in targets in 2017. There are 33 receivers that had at least 100 targets last year, and among them Landry ranks: 17th in yards 6th in TDs 30th in yards/catch (the 3 guys that ranked behind him were Jack Doyle--a TE--and RBs L. Bell and C. McCaffrey) 31st in targeted air yards average 7th in 1st downs 7th in YAC 5th in catch %age So what you're paying high-end WR1 money for is a guy that catches a high percentage of his passes, does so almost exclusively near the LOS, and is able to move the sticks with YAC and be effective in the red zone. Is that worth WR1 money? If so, then Adam Thielen is going to get paid when he's up for a contract, because his numbers are quite similar, except that his targeted air yards average is nearly twice that of Landry. He's a possession receiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: He's a possession receiver. Ya think? You don't pay possession receivers WR1 money; they can be found pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 This suggests to me that the analytics folks in Cleveland, including Wolf and DePodesta, are not being listened to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Ridiculous amount of money for a slot WR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwai San Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Mat68 said: Does it matter where he is lined up if he catches 100 passes a year no matter who his Qb is? I highly doubt he will catch 100+ passes THIS season.......HIGHLY. DOUBT. Just my opinion but that's what I think......whats the MOST ANY Bills got from TT? Hell whats the most # of throws in a direction did any Bills wideout get???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: You don't pay possession receivers WR1 money; they can be found pretty easily. There is nothing easy about finding receivers who can grab 90+ balls a season. Have you seen the success rate of 1st round WRs lately? Spoiler alert, it's bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Mat68 said: Does it matter where he is lined up if he catches 100 passes a year no matter who his Qb is? yeah, 100 mostly inconsequential catches. he can't get into the end-zone, stretch the field, etc. He won't get 100 catches with Coleman and Gordon around. And TT at QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said: Bad move, let him play with Taylor for a season and his value would've dropped to around 7 to 9 mil a year. Just wait until they draft Josh Allen. He's running 3 yard cross routes and watching the ball sail 75 yards past his head, into the stands and nailing a fat Browns fan with a "Dawg" mask on in the 9th row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 I want no part of the WR market. Draft them and get rid of them after their rookie deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: There is nothing easy about finding receivers who can grab 90+ balls a season. Have you seen the success rate of 1st round WRs lately? Spoiler alert, it's bad. 8 WRs caught 90+ passes in 2017; 2 were 1st round picks (Fitz and Hopkins), 3 were 2nd round picks (Landry, Michael Thomas, and Golden Tate), 1 was a 3rd (K. Allen), 1 was a 6th (A. Brown), and 1 was an UDFA (A. Thielen) Go back to 2016 and the distribution gets skewed even further toward late-round picks. Perhaps the success rate of 1st round WRs hasn't been great since 2015, but there have been plenty of rookie WRs that have been solid. 2015 - Amari Cooper, Devin Funchess, even Jamison Crowder has been productive 2016 - Michael Thomas, Sterling Shepard 2017 - Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith Sure, only one of them has 90+ catches, but remember that receptions and yards are almost exclusively a function of targets. Just look at NE: Julian Edelman goes down for the season, and there's Danny Amendola making the jump from 28 receptions to 65. Just watch what happens in Miami this year; I'll bet a candy bar that Albert Wilson and Amendola combine in their share of the slot work to equal the 90 catches that Landry leaves behind, and for a combined $1M less per season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppy Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Jarvis Landry is one of my most despised current NFL players.. a pox on his house and the browns for signing him. Good riddance from the AFC East though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Sure, only one of them has 90+ catches, but remember that receptions and yards are almost exclusively a function of targets. Yes, but I would focus on the why. There is a reason he sees so many targets, and that's because he has some of the cleanest routes and softest hands in the league. Teams don't hand out touches like candy (remember all the "Sammy needs touches" talk?), you have to earn them. Despite mediocre QB play and three offensive coordinators in his first four years, he has produced at a high level. Tape don't lie. Possession receiver? Sure. He is not particularly explosive downfield, like Beckham Jr, but he knows how to get open, separate and win on the short routes. There are plenty of teams who would love to have him in their offense. Browns knew when they traded for him that they would have to pay him. Young, durable and productive players entering their prime are never cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: Yes, but I would focus on the why. There is a reason he sees so many targets, and that's because he has some of the cleanest routes and softest hands in the league. Teams don't hand out touches like candy (remember all the "Sammy needs touches" talk?), you have to earn them. Despite mediocre QB play and three offensive coordinators in his first four years, he has produced at a high level. Tape don't lie. Possession receiver? Sure. He is not particularly explosive downfield, like Beckham Jr, but he knows how to get open, separate and win on the short routes. There are plenty of teams who would love to have him in their offense. Browns knew when they traded for him that they would have to pay him. Young, durable and productive players entering their prime are never cheap. He gets a lot of targets because he plays in the slot, where he has more room to operate. Consider NFL.com's NextGenStats: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation There are WRs that get more average yards of separation per route run than Landry that also play the slot: Albert Wilson, Randall Cobb, Ted Ginn, Tyreek Hill, Travis Benjamin, Adam Humphries, Robby Anderson, and Jamison Crowder. Half of those guys have better reception % than Landry, and yet each of them garnered far fewer targets, so it's not exactly like he's the only guy with the ability to create separation and catch a high percentage of passes. Of course, if you look at who's throwing him the ball, Tannehill in 2016 and Cutler in 2016 had an average intended air yardage of 8.5 on their passes, which is pretty low in comparison to other players. Since Landry is different from the others listed above (save for Humphries) in that he really only operates in the short zones, that's probably got a lot to do with why he gets so many targets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 12, 2018 Author Share Posted April 12, 2018 ANALYSIS Projecting Free-Agent WR Stats With so many wide receiver swaps this offseason in free agency, Nate Burleson takes a look at wideouts in their new locations to see who will have more or less success. Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns: SIMILAR PRODUCTION Old team: Miami Dolphins. Landry was able to be the first player in NFL history to record 400 receptions in his first four seasons because he got a ton of targets in Miami. He might not get that in this offense, and it's something he'll have to adjust to. It's not likely that Landry will have 100 catches, but he could be more efficient if he takes advantage of the balls thrown his way. The Browns have the potential to field two 1,000-yard receivers this season in Landry and Josh Gordon. 2018 prediction: 80 receptions for 1,000 yards and five TDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 4 hours ago, kdiggz said: I hope someone takes his head off before he's able to collect His butt buddy OBJ would be jealous Whenever I see her all I can think about is when she asked that Ram player how he would feel if he had to shower with a gay teammate. After the Rams drafted that guy from Missouri whose name I can't recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
without a drought Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 That's so brownsie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cba fan Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said: He's an overpaid slot receiver. To think another slot receiver by the name of Jordan Matthews would have to play almost 15 years to earn what that POS Landry will make in one year. (not counting mega sign bonus) 46 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said: Whenever I see her all I can think about is when she asked that Ram player how he would feel if he had to shower with a gay teammate. After the Rams drafted that guy from Missouri whose name I can't recall. What an ass wipe to ask such a stupid question. She is a "special kind of stupid" to steal a quote. I would have turned it right around on her and asked if she ever showered with a known gay person. Then get some insight from her about how it all went down why I should feel anything at all. It is just a freaking normal athletes group shower room, not a date. Edited April 12, 2018 by cba fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) Pretty pathetic, the Browns are notoriously stupid. Now somebody get out there and ring that scumbags bell. Edited April 13, 2018 by Turk71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: This isn't directed at you at all, but I get the sense that many people here are clueless about how much the cap has gone up. At 177.2 million, it's approaching MLB levels. If people are familiar with MLB salaries, they'll begin to understand that salaries like $15 million are garden variety for players that teams assume will be above-average starters. The Browns are a team with a TON of players on rookie contracts (and that'll go up after this draft too), so they have to spend their money somehow. They aren't devoting much to the QB position either, relatively speaking. Edited April 13, 2018 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Since when is Landry an elite WR? Don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: This isn't directed at you at all, but I get the sense that many people here are clueless about how much the cap has gone up. At 177.2 million, it's approaching MLB levels. If people are familiar with MLB salaries, they'll begin to understand that salaries like $15 million are garden variety for players that teams assume will be above-average starters. The Browns are a team with a TON of players on rookie contracts (and that'll go up after this draft too), so they have to spend their money somehow. They aren't devoting much to the QB position either, relatively speaking. Ridiculous comparison though, there are far more players in football counting against the cap. Landry is being payed as an elite receiver and he isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Turk71 said: Ridiculous comparison though, there are far more players in football counting against the cap. Landry is being payed as an elite receiver and he isn't. It's not a ridiculous comparison at all. $15 million is what *average* decent starters (e.g., Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford for the Giants) get paid in MLB when they are no longer under team control. Landry is n no longer under team control and better than average (he's not a deep threat, but he's one of the better slot guys in the league). By way of comparison, Landry, for all of his limitations, is a *significantly* better receiver than anyone on the Bills at present (and yes, I'm including Benjamin, who is glacially slow for a #1). Anyway, the MLB luxury is $210 million now, and the minimum salary is higher than in the NFL. In the NFL, guys on rookie contracts count for peanuts, and the Browns' team is filled with them. Last year, the Browns were something like $100 million under the cap. The bottom line: $15 million ain't what it used to be with regard to NFL contracts. The cap has gone up by a LOT in recent years. Edited April 13, 2018 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: It's not a ridiculous comparison at all. $15 million is what *average* decent starters (e.g., Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford for the Giants) get paid in MLB when they are no longer under team control. Landry is n no longer under team control and better than average (he's not a deep threat, but he's one of the better slot guys in the league). By way of comparison, Landry, for all of his limitations, is a *significantly* better receiver than anyone on the Bills at present (and yes, I'm including Benjamin, who is glacially slow for a #1). Anyway, the MLB luxury is $210 million now, and the minimum salary is higher than in the NFL. In the NFL, guys on rookie contracts count for peanuts, and the Browns' team is filled with them. Last year, the Browns were something like $100 million under the cap. The bottom line: $15 million ain't what it used to be with regard to NFL contracts. The cap has gone up by a LOT in recent years. Average decent starters get paid more in MLB. There are less players eating a bigger pie, it's not a good comparison. Landry is one of the top payed wrs in the NFL, he isn't that good is the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Turk71 said: Average decent starters get paid more in MLB. There are less players eating a bigger pie, it's not a good comparison. Landry is one of the top payed wrs in the NFL, he isn't that good is the point. ? - I don't understand your point. Look around at MLB team salary pages and factor in a) the Browns' cap situation and b) Landry' productivity. He is decidedly better than average albeit not elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, dave mcbride said: ? - I don't understand your point. Look around at MLB team salary pages and factor in a) the Browns' cap situation and b) Landry' productivity. He is decidedly better than average albeit not elite. More mouths to feed with less cap is the NFL to MLB comparison, if u don't understand, I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 22 hours ago, thebandit27 said: He gets a lot of targets because he plays in the slot, where he has more room to operate. Consider NFL.com's NextGenStats: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation There are WRs that get more average yards of separation per route run than Landry that also play the slot: Albert Wilson, Randall Cobb, Ted Ginn, Tyreek Hill, Travis Benjamin, Adam Humphries, Robby Anderson, and Jamison Crowder. Half of those guys have better reception % than Landry, and yet each of them garnered far fewer targets, so it's not exactly like he's the only guy with the ability to create separation and catch a high percentage of passes. Of course, if you look at who's throwing him the ball, Tannehill in 2016 and Cutler in 2016 had an average intended air yardage of 8.5 on their passes, which is pretty low in comparison to other players. Since Landry is different from the others listed above (save for Humphries) in that he really only operates in the short zones, that's probably got a lot to do with why he gets so many targets. I feel we got into a similar conversation last year on the same topic about Sammy? These advanced stats are a little silly some times. Bottom line, there are guys who produce at a high level. Landry is one of them. There are others where you can cherry pick certain numbers to fit the narrative, but they never really put it all together.This is a league where it's all about moving the football forward. He's a superb option. His talent in the short routes almost serves as an extension of the running game. If they all those have better reception rates, yards per separation, blah blah blah, why don't they perform better than him? As mentioned by a few other guys, the market has spoken. $15 million is the going rate for an upper tier receiver. 400 catches in 4 years says that Landry is exactly that. Edited April 13, 2018 by TheElectricCompany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sir andrew Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Browns gonna Browns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: I feel we got into a similar conversation last year on the same topic about Sammy? These advanced stats are a little silly some times. Bottom line, there are guys who produce at a high level. Landry is one of them. There are others where you can cherry pick certain numbers to fit the narrative, but they never really put it all together.This is a league where it's all about moving the football forward. He's a superb option. His talent in the short routes almost serves as an extension of the running game. If they all those have better reception rates, yards per separation, blah blah blah, why don't they perform better than him? As mentioned by a few other guys, the market has spoken. $15 million is the going rate for an upper tier receiver. 400 catches in 4 years says that Landry is exactly that. This is scouting by stats at its worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Turk71 said: More mouths to feed with less cap is the NFL to MLB comparison, if u don't understand, I understand. Trust me, I fully understand. What you don't seem to realize is that the bottom 25-30 players on an NFL rosters are chum; they are paid peanuts, relatively speaking, and collectively they add up to a miniscule amount. Are there low earners in MLB? Yes, but they represent a far smaller portion of the roster than in the NFL. Seriously, look at salary pages for NFL and MLB teams. The issue is that some players HAVE to be paid credible major professional sports salaries given the revenues involved and the collective bargaining agreements, even in the 53-players-per-team NFL. The disparity between the top and bottom tiers in the NFL is huge, but since there is a salary cap floor, for all teams some number of players have to paid . Indeed, the Browns basically took on Brock Osweiler last year to add ballast to their overall salary structure, which was ridiculously low. By way of example: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/payroll/ vs. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/cap/ Seriously, take a look. Edited April 13, 2018 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: I feel we got into a similar conversation last year on the same topic about Sammy? These advanced stats are a little silly some times. Bottom line, there are guys who produce at a high level. Landry is one of them. There are others where you can cherry pick certain numbers to fit the narrative, but they never really put it all together. This is a league where it's all about moving the football forward. He's a superb option. His talent in the short routes almost serves as an extension of the running game. If they all those have better reception rates, yards per separation, blah blah blah, why don't they perform better than him? As mentioned by a few other guys, the market has spoken. $15 million is the going rate for an upper tier receiver. 400 catches in 4 years says that Landry is exactly that. It may be, but time will tell if he is and if it's worth that. This is the frickin Browns we are talking about, they are not setting the market. They are just making bad decisions as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: I feel we got into a similar conversation last year on the same topic about Sammy? These advanced stats are a little silly some times. Bottom line, there are guys who produce at a high level. Landry is one of them. There are others where you can cherry pick certain numbers to fit the narrative, but they never really put it all together.This is a league where it's all about moving the football forward. He's a superb option. His talent in the short routes almost serves as an extension of the running game. If they all those have better reception rates, yards per separation, blah blah blah, why don't they perform better than him? As mentioned by a few other guys, the market has spoken. $15 million is the going rate for an upper tier receiver. 400 catches in 4 years says that Landry is exactly that. Good post. Spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: This is scouting by stats at its worst. Check back in when he grabs another ~95 balls for 1100 yards or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, TheElectricCompany said: Check back in when he grabs another ~95 balls for 1100 yards or so. Confirms what I just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Confirms what I just posted. He's a lot better than you seem to think, CB. He is a GREAT safety valve, seems to always catch the tough balls in heavy traffic (attested to by his career 70 percent catch rate and what I see on the screen), and plays with a violent streak that shows up in the run game too (as the Bills can attest). He has a bit of Hines Ward in him. I think he's a jerk, but whatever - that's neither here nor there. Edited April 13, 2018 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Confirms what I just posted. Cool. Gloss over total production as much as you'd like. You don't find guys like him on the street walking around. I'll say it again, productive, young and durable players are always expensive, especially when their best football is ahead of them. Edited April 13, 2018 by TheElectricCompany 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: Cool. Gloss over total production as much as you'd like. You don't find guys like him on the street walking around. I'll say it again, productive, young and durable players are always expensive, especially when their best football is ahead of them. He's being paid like an explosive game breaking #1 WR. He simply isn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: He's being paid like an explosive game breaking #1 WR. He simply isn't. As I say above, $15 million ain't what it used to be. And he is unquestionably better than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I just don’t believe in paying a slot WR #1 WR money. But, with Cleveland’s cap, if they can front load the deal, it may work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, dave mcbride said: As I say above, $15 million ain't what it used to be. And he is unquestionably better than average. Rising cap aside, he's not worth $15.1M per season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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