Jon Ledyard/NDT Scouting: 19 first round grades, with 2 of the top 4 QBs left out

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

He's getting pressured, not every time, but just about I'd say 70 percent of his
dropbacks, he's either getting pressure early — before 2 1/2 seconds — or his receivers aren't separating so he's forced to hold the ball and move and avoid pressure and then try to reset and throw. Or throw on the run while a defender is closing in on him," McShay said. "What are you supposed to do?"

 

People talk about Allen like having a bad team around him counts as a positive. It's an important part of the evaluation but it doesn't help you scout him unless you're just looking at stats. He also faced horrible defenses most of the year but still threw a distressingly high rate of interceptable balls.

 

So even if your argument is that he was pressured more than other QBs, you can still determine how he performed when under pressure relative to the other QBs. And again the numbers here are terrible. According to that NDT scouting report he threw an interceptable ball 20% of the time when he was under pressure. That's against lower college level talent. At the NFL level when everything is much faster that habit won't go away. His ball placement when under pressure was the worst out of 13 QBs evaluated. Similarly for throws beyond his first read he had some of the worst ball placement and a 20% interceptable rate.

 

He will face plenty of pressure in the NFL and he'll have to move beyond his first read all the time. And he'll have to do it faster than he ever had to at Wyoming. When people say he has poor mental processing this is what they mean. Not his wonderlic score but his ability to make quick decisions on the field based on what he sees.

[Doc]

33 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Not at all scary. There is no science to scouting QB's. Smart people get QB wrong all the time. I just don't remember such a wide variety of opinions. 

 

And...that's what makes it scary. 

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

This is the worst part of "Scout speak".  Round grades mean nothing.  There is not value at picking a QB 3 or 56.  If they become a franchise caliber starter in the NFL they are worth the 1st pick.  Value means nothing if you like the player and they produce and are effective in the NFL they are worth the pick or possibly higher.  Matt Malano would have been perceived as a reach if he was drafted in the 3rd though his play this past year would have justified it. 

 

Grades do matter but only the grade of the team that picks him.  If a team liked Milano enough to value him in the 3rd and then he produced at that level it doesn't matter whether 31 other teams thought he was an UDFA.  Every team has a different board and every draft analyst whether a professional for a network or a total amateur at home like me has a different board too.  

[mannc]

47 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Not at all scary. There is no science to scouting QB's. Smart people get QB wrong all the time. I just don't remember such a wide variety of opinions. 

Well, not since last year, anyway. 

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Grades do matter but only the grade of the team that picks him.  If a team liked Milano enough to value him in the 3rd and then he produced at that level it doesn't matter whether 31 other teams thought he was an UDFA.  Every team has a different board and every draft analyst whether a professional for a network or a total amateur at home like me has a different board too.  

Right but the guy is ignoring positional importance.  4 Rbs, a guard as his top player and splitting hairs on Darnold not including him in the first rd is idiotic and just click bait.  If Darnold becomes an average starting Qb he is more important to a teams success than the gaurd even if he is a perennial all pro for 10 years.  

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

Well, not since last year, anyway. 

 

I think there are just more guys to have different opinions on this year.  But you are right there was plenty of disagreement on the 3 first round guys in 2017.  

Just now, Mat68 said:

Right but the guy is ignoring positional importance.  4 Rbs, a guard as his top player and splitting hairs on Darnold not including him in the first rd is idiotic and just click bait.  If Darnold becomes an average starting Qb he is more important to a teams success than the gaurd even if he is a perennial all pro for 10 years.  

 

Position importance plays a part in the way I grade so it is kind of inbuilt to my grading system.  But at the same time when I am looking at who I would pick if I was a GM there are certain positions you will reach for - Quarterback is obviously one of them.

 

But ultimately as I say... the only grade that matters is the one the team picking has.  

[2003Contenders]

This is similar to what Gil Brandt has been saying. He has not released his top 100 yet (to my knowledge), but he said there are about 15-20 legitimate first round talent guys -- and that very little separates the guys in the next tier, say 20th thru 70th.

 

That is why as much as I would love to get a franchise QB, I do NOT think it is the end of the world if Beane is unable to make that move up to get "his" guy. If 4-5 QBs do go early, then the Bills have a great shot at landing two bona fide difference-makers at 12 and 22 at other positions of need (OL, DL, WR, LB). Then with three more picks between there and 65, they can load up on other potential starters.

 

In talking about trading up for a franchise QB, I have to say that I get the impression that, unlike the Jets who appear to be OK with any of their top 2-3 rated QBs, Beane has a particular guy he is targeting. If he can make the move to trade up to get him, I think he does. If he can't, then I don't think the team will overpay to grab one of the "consolation prize" QBs.

Edited April 5, 2018 by 2003Contenders

[Boatdrinks]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I actually kind of prefer it. This way, it’s more a projection of long term value and calls out when someone is a reach. Like when EJ was drafted....

 

The point isn’t to predict when players will be drafted for these scenarios and shouldn’t be compared to a mock at all

I prefer it too. Just ranking  the best prospects, takes the need based drafting by teams out of it. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

This is similar to what Gil Brandt has been saying. He has not released his top 100 yet (to my knowledge), but he said there are about 15-20 legitimate first round talent guys -- and that very little separates the guys in the next tier, say 20th thru 70th.

 

That is why as much as I would love to get a franchise QB, I do NOT think it is the end of the world if Beane is unable to make that move up to get "his" guy. If 4-5 QBs do go early, then the Bills have a great shot at landing two bona fide difference-makers at 12 and 22 at other positions of need (OL, DL, WR, LB). Then with three more picks between there and 65, they can load up on other potential starters.

 

In talking about trading up for a franchise QB, I have to say that I get the impression that, unlike the Jets who appear to be OK with any of their top 2-3 rated QBs, Beane has a particular guy he is targeting. If he can make the move to trade up to get him, I think he does. If he can't, then I don't think the team will overpay to grab one of the "consolation prize" QBs.

 

I think there is only 1 guy he would go into the top 5 for.  Think there might be a 2nd guy he would move up 4 or 5 spots to take but to pay the big price and go to #2 it is for 1 specific guy.  

[Pete]

Only two first round grades on QBs?  Lets package multiple 1s and 2s and trade up for that 2nd round qb.  !@#$ it, lets just trade our next two drafts so no one pays more then us.  Because if we pay a lot, that QB must be really good

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there is only 1 guy he would go into the top 5 for.  Think there might be a 2nd guy he would move up 4 or 5 spots to take but to pay the big price and go to #2 it is for 1 specific guy.  

I am guessing this is contingent on Darnold going to Cleveland at 1.  So, who is the guy at 2 if they trade up?  I surmise Mayfield is the fella they might move up between 6 - 10 for, but I have no read on what they are really thinking.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I am guessing this is contingent on Darnold going to Cleveland at 1.  So, who is the guy at 2 if they trade up?  I surmise Mayfield is the fella they might move up between 6 - 10 for, but I have no read on what they are really thinking.

 

I thought for a long time it was Rosen.  I am increasingly thinking it might be Josh Allen.  I hope I am wrong because to me Rosen's tape is miles better.  

[Dr. Who]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I thought for a long time it was Rosen.  I am increasingly thinking it might be Josh Allen.  I hope I am wrong because to me Rosen's tape is miles better.  

Bandit convinced me to think better of Allen.  Rosen is clearly the safer pick, however. 

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Bandit convinced me to think better of Allen.  Rosen is clearly the safer pick, however. 

 

Yea Bandit is much higher on Allen than me and has Jackson and Rudolph basically flipped (he has Jackson as bottom of the 1st worthy and Rudolph a solid round 2 pick and I have them the other way around) but we are relatively close on Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield.  

 

I suppose I would be in Bandit's "take Allen off the board" club because there is no way I'd spend a top 10 pick on him and there is no way he doesn't go in the top 10.  He is all but a top 5 lock I think at this stage.  

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, SoFFacet said:

 

Very few people think he'll be any good. He's inaccurate and slow. Almost nobody with his stats & pedigree has ever been successful in the NFL. 

I'm not a big Allen fan but calling him slow is ridiculous ... he is probably the second most athletic QB in the draft behind Lamar Jackson

[Blokestradamus]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'm not a big Allen fan but calling him slow is ridiculous ... he is probably the second most athletic QB in the draft behind Lamar Jackson

 

He's in that Carson Wentz/Andrew Luck tier of athlete. I'd honestly say that he's got the best balance of any QB in the draft as well.

[ndirish1978]

Thanks for this. I agree with his assessment for the most part. Makes trading UP more palatable if you're looking at giving up a pick outside of the top 19 guys cause the talent doesn't correspond to their draft position. This is definitely a draft to make moves to get your guy if you see someone you like early and trade back in the late 1st to acquire more picks. 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there are just more guys to have different opinions on this year.  But you are right there was plenty of disagreement on the 3 first round guys in 2017.  

 

 

Some people got it right, though

[D521646]

I dunno what metrics anyone might use to "grade" a 1st, or even 2nd round pick, but for me, it's simple.  1st round picks should be sure fire day one starters, 2nd round picks should be "we're pretty sure this guy can start day one", and 3rd round should be "geeze we need a LB and we think this kid can compete for a job"..  All the rest of the rounds are "cross your fingers and hope you get someone like Kyle Williams" 

 

 

Tim- 

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, mannc said:

Some people got it right, though

 

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

People talk about Allen like having a bad team around him counts as a positive. It's an important part of the evaluation but it doesn't help you scout him unless you're just looking at stats. He also faced horrible defenses most of the year but still threw a distressingly high rate of interceptable balls.

 

So even if your argument is that he was pressured more than other QBs, you can still determine how he performed when under pressure relative to the other QBs. And again the numbers here are terrible. According to that NDT scouting report he threw an interceptable ball 20% of the time when he was under pressure. That's against lower college level talent. At the NFL level when everything is much faster that habit won't go away. His ball placement when under pressure was the worst out of 13 QBs evaluated. Similarly for throws beyond his first read he had some of the worst ball placement and a 20% interceptable rate.

 

He will face plenty of pressure in the NFL and he'll have to move beyond his first read all the time. And he'll have to do it faster than he ever had to at Wyoming. When people say he has poor mental processing this is what they mean. Not his wonderlic score but his ability to make quick decisions on the field based on what he sees.

What you have when you over scrutinize a college players tape when said player only has played two years of football all you get is "part" of the analysis. The kid started college as this scrawny 198 lb weakling who grew into his bigger frame. The same can be said about developing as you go and more times than not players improve their play the more they play. You can watch two years of tape forever and it won't tell you the entire story.

 

Josh Allen's first year of college he played with a somewhat veteran team and in his second year, everyone that had touched the ball in his first year was gone. Allen had to deal with an entire rookie class that was learning as they went. Hence the reason he was running for his life nearly every offensive play and when he did throw his receivers had difficulty getting separation and catching the ball. Most QB's when under this kind of duress usually don't win many games and yet this young man managed to carry his team when needed. 

 

 

In the senior bowl, Allen faced some top competition and he did well going 9 of 13 for 158 yards, 2 TDs with a 12.8 avg. He also showed accuracy and touch with his throws in the game. 

 

From what has happened since the senior bowl, combine, and pro day is a significant improvement in his footwork, accuracy, and touch. There is a REAL reason as to why so many scouts, draft analysts have this kid as a top-five pick and some the first overall pick. 

 

P.S. Where are you getting this poor mental processing stuff? Allen can read the full field and is capable of getting through his progressions at a reasonable pace. He doesn’t anticipate players coming open, but will deliver the ball when he sees a player moving into space. This kid needs some time to on the bench to develop no question and like I said if developed properly he could be another Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers. 

 

 

[Nihilarian]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I thought for a long time it was Rosen.  I am increasingly thinking it might be Josh Allen.  I hope I am wrong because to me Rosen's tape is miles better.  

Rosen's tape is miles better. But then so was the team he played on with better players, better coaching. His star receiver Lasley had over 1264 yards receiving with 9 TDs. Rosen also played in a pro-style WCO offense with shorter passes...and yet UCLA finished the 2017 season at 5-6.

 

I can't help but think that Rosen is another Sam Bradford who looks and plays brilliantly and yet only managed to play in half of his career games because of injuries. While he can move around in the pocket and set his feet very quickly. He also isn't very good at escaping a pass rush and when he does get hit he tends to get injured. 

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Rosen's tape is miles better. But then so was the team he played on with better players, better coaching. His star receiver Lasley had over 1264 yards receiving with 9 TDs. Rosen also played in a pro-style WCO offense with shorter passes...and yet UCLA finished the 2017 season at 5-6.

 

I can't help but think that Rosen is another Sam Bradford who looks and plays brilliantly and yet only managed to play in half of his career games because of injuries. While he can move around in the pocket and set his feet very quickly. He also isn't very good at escaping a pass rush and when he does get hit he tends to get injured. 

The bolded is highly questionable.  I don't believe there was a worse coach than Jim Mora in Division 1 college football. 

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve been thinking that the Allen buzz is largely being created by his agent to try to boost his stock.  This lends credence to that.  

 

God I hope so.

 

The Allen hype is just baffling the hell outta me.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Tyrod's friend]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

God I hope so.

 

The Allen hype is just baffling the hell outta me.

Don't you understand?

He throws the ball very fast. 

[thebandit27]

7 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Don't you understand?

He throws the ball very fast. 

 

And he's a good athlete 

And he's got great escapability

And he has shown the ability to manipulate the defense with his eyes and with PA

And he's played in a pro style offense

And he's a smart, high character kid that loves the game 

 

But again, I realize that it's very difficult for folks to be intellectually honest with regard to Allen; it's far easier to use hyperbole.

 

I haven't figured out why that's the case though; doubt I ever will 

[Tyrod's friend]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

And he's a good athlete 

And he's got great escapability

And he has shown the ability to manipulate the defense with his eyes and with PA

And he's played in a pro style offense

And he's a smart, high character kid that loves the game 

 

But again, I realize that it's very difficult for folks to be intellectually honest with regard to Allen; it's far easier to use hyperbole.

 

I haven't figured out why that's the case though; doubt I ever will 

I haven't used hyperbole to describe Josh Allen once, so perhaps you'll excuse an attempt at humor.

You forgot to say 
And he's big.

 

I understand your commitment to the study you've done. From what I see around here you do a lot of film work, I'll honor that and admit my opinions are direvative. The very obvious things that stand out to me is that 

* excuses about talent surrounding him don't hold up. He wasn't that good a year ago. 

* talk about his playing in what amount to a scrimmage at an all-star game really doesn't hold up in my mind. 

* often his escapeability - according to people that have done some pretty good analysis - is because he failed in pre-snap reads. I think that will likely only get worse when really good players and DCs start to truly disguise what is coming.

I believe pretty strongly in muscle memory. The things a player does and has committed to his body to do, is what he will do at the least for the next four years after being a professional athlete - especially at QB. And to that ends, I do believe playing in a pro-style offense is an argument that has merit - but he wasn't particularly good at it nor did he show improvement the more he was exposed to it.

But if offensive style is a dominant theme, shouldn't we weight more heavily Lamar Jackson - who can spin it, improved himself year over year, led his team to great records, overcame poor WRs, was the singularly MOST escapable QB and analysts suggest is more accurate, and whom we won't have to move an inch to get?

Increases in completion percentage when moving to the pros ends when you start getting paid. Period. The arc of improvement stops. Any leap is temporary and more than likely reflective of the countless other variables that go into success as a pro. Matty Ryan didn't go from 57 to 61 and then up and up and up. 

Finally, there's this: I have a natural aversion to QBs with big arms. Their confidence gets them into problems and they tend to be turnover machines. They have problems with completions because frankly they don't throw a catchable ball and that is the singular, and I mean SINGULAR thing a QB must do. Does that apply to Josh Allen? I don't know I've never sat in a cold, NW stadium in November. 

I sure as heck don't want the Buffalo Bills to roll the dice on a guy that couldn't complete 60% of his passes against Western Goldminer State. Regardless of the many reasons he didn't complete the passes (like, because Brett Favre said "Touchdowns first" so he wouldn't hit the safety valve even though that was the design of the play), I know he didn't. 

Hope you get to stay warm.

Alex 

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

I haven't used hyperbole to describe Josh Allen once, so perhaps you'll excuse an attempt at humor.

You forgot to say 
And he's big.

 

I understand your commitment to the study you've done. From what I see around here you do a lot of film work, I'll honor that and admit my opinions are direvative. The very obvious things that stand out to me is that 

* excuses about talent surrounding him don't hold up. He wasn't that good a year ago. 

* talk about his playing in what amount to a scrimmage at an all-star game really doesn't hold up in my mind. 

* often his escapeability - according to people that have done some pretty good analysis - is because he failed in pre-snap reads. I think that will likely only get worse when really good players and DCs start to truly disguise what is coming.

I believe pretty strongly in muscle memory. The things a player does and has committed to his body to do, is what he will do at the least for the next four years after being a professional athlete - especially at QB. And to that ends, I do believe playing in a pro-style offense is an argument that has merit - but he wasn't particularly good at it nor did he show improvement the more he was exposed to it.

But if offensive style is a dominant theme, shouldn't we weight more heavily Lamar Jackson - who can spin it, improved himself year over year, led his team to great records, overcame poor WRs, was the singularly MOST escapable QB and analysts suggest is more accurate, and whom we won't have to move an inch to get?

Increases in completion percentage when moving to the pros ends when you start getting paid. Period. The arc of improvement stops. Any leap is temporary and more than likely reflective of the countless other variables that go into success as a pro. Matty Ryan didn't go from 57 to 61 and then up and up and up. 

Finally, there's this: I have a natural aversion to QBs with big arms. Their confidence gets them into problems and they tend to be turnover machines. They have problems with completions because frankly they don't throw a catchable ball and that is the singular, and I mean SINGULAR thing a QB must do. Does that apply to Josh Allen? I don't know I've never sat in a cold, NW stadium in November. 

I sure as heck don't want the Buffalo Bills to roll the dice on a guy that couldn't complete 60% of his passes against Western Goldminer State. Regardless of the many reasons he didn't complete the passes (like, because Brett Favre said "Touchdowns first" so he wouldn't hit the safety valve even though that was the design of the play), I know he didn't. 

Hope you get to stay warm.

Alex 

 

My apologies if the "intellectual honesty" comment appeared to be directed at you; that was not my intention...it was more of a statement about the general theme surrounding Josh Allen dialogue on this board.

 

It's not as though you don't make fair points.  I myself have reservations about Allen, even though I may be his most outspoken supporter on the board.

 

Where we definitely agree is regarding Allen's overconfidence in himself.  My #1 issue with him can be boiled down to "he tries to do way too much".  He tries to make throws that aren't there because he has an arm unlike any other--that he manages to do so from time to time doesn't help.  He tries to extend plays too far when he should take the throw-away.  He tries to carry his team on his arm when it's not possible to do so.

 

Appreciate the well-wishes; while Mrs. Bandit and I aren't huge fans of the April snow, my kids are ecstatic about it

Edited April 6, 2018 by thebandit27