Probably how the Bills will be going after a QB

[maryland-bills-fan]

Ever attend a country auction?  Two important rules: {1}  Look the goods over and decide how much you are willing to pay for each item. This prevents you from doing something in the heat of the moment and overpaying. {2} Find out what the bidding step increments are and place you bid so that you can make your last bid your maximum bid. You don't want somebody else walking away with the goods at your price.

 

Right now there are 4-6 QB's (?) who might be in play for the Bills to draft in the first round.  In my former life, I was involved in buying a lot of expensive technical equipment.  With a limited amount of upgrade money to spend, we would have to decide what area to upgrade, what the various equipment might help our product  and what the cost of the equipment might be after haggling with the manufacturer of the equipment.   Real apples and oranges comparisons.  Ultimately we would set our max bid for each alternative and then start bargaining.   You might do the same thing buying a used truck.  The Bills probably have ltwo lists that look something like the following:

Trade value "money"chart

#12   1200

#22     780

#53    370

#56    340

#65   265

#96   116

2019 #1   1000?

2019 #2   700?

 

QB max bid chart.................the entries in this chart are speculative. The order is the order of priority-who we want first is at the top.

Rosen        2300

Darnold      2100

Allen            1900

Mayfield       1500

Jackson      1400

Rudolph       800

 

 

The "max QB bid chart" is NOT what anybody thinks that the QB is worth in an absolute sense.  It is what it is worth to the Bills, and this balances the particular fit with the Bills (a running QB, or a California dude with small hands, or a guy with xyz warts) against the value of the other things the Bills could use that draft "money" for.    Some of the entries could never be bought at the prices listed.  We are not in the running for those guys. If someone wants a solid gold radiator, well lets not get into a bidding war with them.

 

What we do in the draft is offer our max bid to the team on the clock for the guy who is highest on the list and still available.  Sooner or later something is going to hit.  It is possible that we get down to our #12 slot and take the best guy- -OR-- we might also be glancing at a third chart (maybe it is ILB max bid chart) and take our QB of the defense instead.

 

One thing not to do, is to trade up ahead of time to (example) a #8 pick and wind up being stuck there.  There are number of things that might go wrong. We might not have a valuable QB available there and have to "overpay" by burning that pick on somebody we could have gotten lower in the draft.  We might also let some other team jump us to pick #7 and take "our guy" just ahead of us.  Nothing like having a target on your back and having shown your poker hand.

 I would be interested to see what people's "QB max bid" table would look like.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[billsredneck1]

excellent post! i really don't have anything worthy of adding to it.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

It seems like everyone has positioned themselves to get their guy.

 

Browns are set on Darnold, Giants look like they like Chubb a lot. Jets have tried to keep it a secret but Josh Salem could be their guy. Broncos seem enamored with Mayfield.

 

Three trade possibilities: Browns at 4, Colts at 6(I think they stay and take Barkley and Bucs at 7. If Rosen gets past NYJ he could drop and we could get our guy for a cheaper price.

[mead107]

I don believe in points 

[Your Brown Eye]

But the other thread said the Bills were going to use a blackjack format, now they're doing a country auction?

[4merper4mer]

21 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

It seems like everyone has positioned themselves to get their guy.

 

Browns are set on Darnold, Giants look like they like Chubb a lot. Jets have tried to keep it a secret but Josh Salem could be their guy. Broncos seem enamored with Mayfield.

 

Three trade possibilities: Browns at 4, Colts at 6(I think they stay and take Barkley and Bucs at 7. If Rosen gets past NYJ he could drop and we could get our guy for a cheaper price.

Josh Salem is aVERY well kept secret.  Props to the Jets for keeping it that way.  How did you find out?

[maryland-bills-fan]

19 minutes ago, mead107 said:

I don believe in points 

 What I do see is that most of the trades of draft picks come pretty close ( 10% or better) to that 40 year old Cowboy chart.    It is supposed to be pegged to the odds of getting a starting NFL QB.   I have seen a number of analysis this year that it is off.  It undervalues the chance of doing that with lower round draft picks. (even lower half of the first and the 2nd, & 3rd round)..     But who wants to draft a 3rd rounder for 7 years to get one franchse QB?

[auburnbillsbacker]

I think QBs go 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall so we have to hope that the 4th and 5th best QBs are good.   

[Fadingpain]

Disagree with the philosophy that says we can't trade up and "Show our hand" prior to the actual draft, or that we somehow gain leverage by making the move while someone is on the clock with time working as a factor in the analysis.

 

The relative value of all the draft positions is a known commodity to all teams.  If we contact team X and are willing to give appropriate value for the position, no reason why they wouldn't necessarily accept the deal prior to the draft.

 

In fact, I would think both parties (not just the Bills) would prefer to have the deal wrapped up ahead of time so as to better cement their selection plans.

 

I am not saying we WILL make the deal prior to the draft; I am saying we well could, or that there is no reason why we wouldn't make the deal prior to the draft.

 

 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Josh Salem is aVERY well kept secret.  Props to the Jets for keeping it that way.  How did you find out?

 

skskskskss lol

[apuszczalowski]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Josh Salem is aVERY well kept secret.  Props to the Jets for keeping it that way.  How did you find out?

Better watch out, his abilities may be all from witchcraft 

 

 

[ALLEN1QB]

If that's the case the Jets way overpaid to move up 3 spots. I don't think the point chart is useful anymore.

[apuszczalowski]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

Disagree with the philosophy that says we can't trade up and "Show our hand" prior to the actual draft, or that we somehow gain leverage by making the move while someone is on the clock with time working as a factor in the analysis.

 

The relative value of all the draft positions is a known commodity to all teams.  If we contact team X and are willing to give appropriate value for the position, no reason why they wouldn't necessarily accept the deal prior to the draft.

 

In fact, I would think both parties (not just the Bills) would prefer to have the deal wrapped up ahead of time so as to better cement their selection plans.

 

I am not saying we WILL make the deal prior to the draft; I am saying we well could, or that there is no reason why we wouldn't make the deal prior to the draft.

 

 

There are 2 reasons you don't make the deal prior to the draft.

 

1. You want to make sure the reason you are making the deal is still there. You don't make a trade like the Jets did to get a certain player without knowing that the player will still be there when you pick. It's pretty obvious now they have at least 3 players in mind and would be happy with any of those 3.

 

2. You don't want to give other teams the chance to counter your move and get ahead of you to get what you want. Unless your moving up to 1, you don't want to give another team a chance to jump you after you make the trade to get what you want.

 

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Ever attend a country auction?  Two important rules: {1}  Look the goods over and decide how much you are willing to pay for each item. This prevents you from doing something in the heat of the moment and overpaying. {2} Find out what the bidding step increments are and place you bid so that you can make your last bid your maximum bid. You don't want somebody else walking away with the goods at your price.

 

Right now there are 4-6 QB's (?) who might be in play for the Bills to draft in the first round.  In my former life, I was involved in buying a lot of expensive technical equipment.  With a limited amount of upgrade money to spend, we would have to decide what area to upgrade, what the various equipment might help our product  and what the cost of the equipment might be after haggling with the manufacturer of the equipment.   Real apples and oranges comparisons.  Ultimately we would set our max bid for each alternative and then start bargaining.   You might do the same thing buying a used truck.  The Bills probably have ltwo lists that look something like the following:

Trade value "money"chart

#12   1200

#22     780

#53    370

#56    340

#65   265

#96   116

2019 #1   1000?

2019 #2   700?

 

QB max bid chart.................the entries in this chart are speculative. The order is the order of priority-who we want first is at the top.

Rosen        2300

Darnold      2100

Allen            1900

Mayfield       1500

Jackson      1400

Rudolph       800

 

 

The "max QB bid chart" is NOT what anybody thinks that the QB is worth in an absolute sense.  It is what it is worth to the Bills, and this balances the particular fit with the Bills (a running QB, or a California dude with small hands, or a guy with xyz warts) against the value of the other things the Bills could use that draft "money" for.    Some of the entries could never be bought at the prices listed.  We are not in the running for those guys. If someone wants a solid gold radiator, well lets not get into a bidding war with them.

 

What we do in the draft is offer our max bid to the team on the clock for the guy who is highest on the list and still available.  Sooner or later something is going to hit.  It is possible that we get down to our #12 slot and take the best guy- -OR-- we might also be glancing at a third chart (maybe it is ILB max bid chart) and take our QB of the defense instead.

 

One thing not to do, is to trade up ahead of time to (example) a #8 pick and wind up being stuck there.  There are number of things that might go wrong. We might not have a valuable QB available there and have to "overpay" by burning that pick on somebody we could have gotten lower in the draft.  We might also let some other team jump us to pick #7 and take "our guy" just ahead of us.  Nothing like having a target on your back and having shown your poker hand.

 I would be interested to see what people's "QB max bid" table would look like.

 

 

 

 

 

Great stuff here.  A couple thoughts.  One, while you use points I always recall Polian laughing when the points chart came up, and saying GMs paid no attention to that.  Maybe true in his day, may have changed or may not have today.  Still your logic about what it would take, what you'd offer as a max, is  very wise, and I suspect that is how Beane will play this.  I lso think it's how other teams will play it.  The Giants IMHO would be nuts to make a deal before they are actually on the clock.  They can have ideas about offers from teams, but when the heat is really on is when teams wanting to get to 2 will maximize out their offer.

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

Disagree with the philosophy that says we can't trade up and "Show our hand" prior to the actual draft, or that we somehow gain leverage by making the move while someone is on the clock with time working as a factor in the analysis.

 

The relative value of all the draft positions is a known commodity to all teams.  If we contact team X and are willing to give appropriate value for the position, no reason why they wouldn't necessarily accept the deal prior to the draft.

 

In fact, I would think both parties (not just the Bills) would prefer to have the deal wrapped up ahead of time so as to better cement their selection plans.

 

I am not saying we WILL make the deal prior to the draft; I am saying we well could, or that there is no reason why we wouldn't make the deal prior to the draft.

 

 

I disagree.  The Giants are in the catbird's seat.  By waiting till the 11th hour some team will get desperate and up their offer.

[KDIGGZ]

I hope the Bills have them ranked like that.  However, I think they like 1. Darnold,  2. Allen.  They like the moxy, durability, and mobility of those QB's over Rosen.  I think if they traded up to 2 it would be for one of those 2.  They might still be interested in Rosen at 4 or 6 but they also might be happy sitting back and taking Lamar Jackson (yuck!).  I hope this is not the case but that is what I have heard.  If they traded up to 2 and took Allen I think people would freak out and burn down the city, which may be a reason why they haven't.  But the big reason why they haven't is because both the Giants and Bills are waiting to see if Darnold is there at 2.  Beane would give up everything for him but the Giants might want him for themselves.  So while I would personally rank them like above, I think the Bills (and a lot of other teams) have them ranked differently

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Ever attend a country auction?  Two important rules: {1}  Look the goods over and decide how much you are willing to pay for each item. This prevents you from doing something in the heat of the moment and overpaying. {2} Find out what the bidding step increments are and place you bid so that you can make your last bid your maximum bid. You don't want somebody else walking away with the goods at your price.

 

Right now there are 4-6 QB's (?) who might be in play for the Bills to draft in the first round.  In my former life, I was involved in buying a lot of expensive technical equipment.  With a limited amount of upgrade money to spend, we would have to decide what area to upgrade, what the various equipment might help our product  and what the cost of the equipment might be after haggling with the manufacturer of the equipment.   Real apples and oranges comparisons.  Ultimately we would set our max bid for each alternative and then start bargaining.   You might do the same thing buying a used truck.  The Bills probably have ltwo lists that look something like the following:

Trade value "money"chart

#12   1200

#22     780

#53    370

#56    340

#65   265

#96   116

2019 #1   1000?

2019 #2   700?

 

QB max bid chart.................the entries in this chart are speculative. The order is the order of priority-who we want first is at the top.

Rosen        2300

Darnold      2100

Allen            1900

Mayfield       1500

Jackson      1400

Rudolph       800

 

 

The "max QB bid chart" is NOT what anybody thinks that the QB is worth in an absolute sense.  It is what it is worth to the Bills, and this balances the particular fit with the Bills (a running QB, or a California dude with small hands, or a guy with xyz warts) against the value of the other things the Bills could use that draft "money" for.    Some of the entries could never be bought at the prices listed.  We are not in the running for those guys. If someone wants a solid gold radiator, well lets not get into a bidding war with them.

 

What we do in the draft is offer our max bid to the team on the clock for the guy who is highest on the list and still available.  Sooner or later something is going to hit.  It is possible that we get down to our #12 slot and take the best guy- -OR-- we might also be glancing at a third chart (maybe it is ILB max bid chart) and take our QB of the defense instead.

 

One thing not to do, is to trade up ahead of time to (example) a #8 pick and wind up being stuck there.  There are number of things that might go wrong. We might not have a valuable QB available there and have to "overpay" by burning that pick on somebody we could have gotten lower in the draft.  We might also let some other team jump us to pick #7 and take "our guy" just ahead of us.  Nothing like having a target on your back and having shown your poker hand.

 I would be interested to see what people's "QB max bid" table would look like.

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting post and well thought out. Having said that I have to think about it some more.

[xRUSHx]

2 hours ago, Your Brown Eye said:

But the other thread said the Bills were going to use a blackjack format, now they're doing a country auction?

Bills have always used the country auction it's why we always get the bargain basement QBs, why throw it out OBD will make you a star. If they used the poker format of all in we would have had a franchise worthy QB here many years ago.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Bills have always used the country auction it's why we always get the bargain basement QBs, why throw it out OBD will make you a star. If they used the poker format of all in we would have had a franchise worthy QB here many years ago.

Or gone bust a lot of times.

 

I'll take Beane's toothbrush over many here when it comes to understanding how to manage an NFL franchise

[xRUSHx]

IMO they have the big 4. Big pocket QBs to see over the line. IMO rankings are more like this.

Rosen         2300

Darnold       2100

Rudolph.     1900

Mayfield.   1800 (only because of size,I love Mayfield)

Allen             900

Jackson       800

 

[oldmanfan]

I have thought for quite a while it will come down to the interviews.  My gut is they have the top 6 grouped fairly tight when it comes to physical skills, all have flaws here and there.  But which one impresses on the interview?  Which one shows he can be the kind of leader the Bills want?  Which one stands at the white board and shows Daboll he understands read and concepts of Daboll's offense?  

 

None be of us have that info, which is why the board, pundits, etc have wildly varying opinions.  But Beane and company does.  If they trade to 2, they do so feeling very sure there was one guy who clearly outshone the others.  They move to say 4 or 6, maybe two guys and they get the second.  And so on.

 

It'll be a nail biting night to be sure, but I think Bills fans can be confident knowing Beane will do everything in his power to amass the data he needs to make the best decision he can.

[Sweats]

OMG, this thread would be so much better if you could yell it out in an auctioneers voice.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

Better watch out, his abilities may be all from witchcraft 

 

 

I heard he used to be a rat that they turned into a QB. Oh wait that's Rosen.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

How can the # 53 pick be worth 340 points and a 2019 2nd round pick be worth 700 points?  I've read too over the years that to you need to de-value draft picks for one year out by one round.  Trading now for say the Bills 2019 1st round pick since they have the #12 pick overall  would only be worth the points given to the 12th pick in the 2nd round. 

 

The problem too I see with your whole concept is when buying good as compare too, there are plenty of auctions to go to.  So you don't overpay  at the one this week, maybe next weeks auction is on a rainy day so not many people show up and you get a better deal.  Different auctions, different attendees, and other variables.  Here same group of people and same bidders all the time.  So you're more at the mercy of the people selling or you'll continue to go home empty handed.  That may be the better option than over paying, but not if you really need a specific item.

[Augie]

5 hours ago, mead107 said:

I don believe in points 

Dennison was not big on them either. 

[Teddy KGB]

5 hours ago, Your Brown Eye said:

But the other thread said the Bills were going to use a blackjack format, now they're doing a country auction?

 

Maybe we should hire these people to help 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

How can the # 53 pick be worth 340 points and a 2019 2nd round pick be worth 700 points?  I've read too over the years that to you need to de-value draft picks for one year out by one round.  Trading now for say the Bills 2019 1st round pick since they have the #12 pick overall  would only be worth the points given to the 12th pick in the 2nd round. 

 

The problem too I see with your whole concept is when buying good as compare too, there are plenty of auctions to go to.  So you don't overpay  at the one this week, maybe next weeks auction is on a rainy day so not many people show up and you get a better deal.  Different auctions, different attendees, and other variables.  Here same group of people and same bidders all the time.  So you're more at the mercy of the people selling or you'll continue to go home empty handed.  That may be the better option than over paying, but not if you really need a specific item.

Gee, not really.   Maybe there are a lot of QB one week.  Maybe there are a lot of cheap, were-high-draft-pick veterans around this year.  Maybe it is a great year for blind-side offensive tackles.  Maybe most of the league is 7-9 to 9-7 this year, so good & bad teams are scrambled in draft sequence.  Maybe the early drafters took QB's the last 3 years and don't want to draft them but there are a lot of good QB's this year?   There is a lot of variation in the "bidders" year to year in the nfl draft.