Realism about the QB Position

[Sky Diver]

"After gaining the starting job in the end of the 1990 season as a true freshman (joined later by Jeff Tuel as the only two in school history), he quickly became the face of the Cougars offense. In 1992 Bledsoe led his team to a 9–3 record (ranking #10 in the coaches poll and #12 in the AP) and a 31–28 win against the Utah Utes in the Copper Bowl. "

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drew_Bledsoe

 

Washington State got better under Bledsoe. UCLA got worse after Rosen became the QB in 2015:

 

2014: 10 - 3

2015: 8 - 5

2016: 4 - 8

2017: 6 - 7

 

[blacklabel]

8 hours ago, NickelCity said:

Rosen has great field vision and can make all the throws - accurately. He needs to improve his pocket awareness and his concussions scare me.

 

But he was the only one giving UCLA a chance in games. I'm not impressed with that program at all.

 

This here... in watching several UCLA games they looked like a poorly coached team overall. The effort from some of his WRs was dismal. Rosen seemed to be one of the only guys working hard to make plays happen. I saw a few plays where his ball placement wasn't great but the ball was catchable with an adjustment from the WR. This WR in question was running a crossing route, the ball was a little bit behind him, receiver saw it but just kept running his route right to the sideline, didn't even make an attempt at catching it. Not every pass is gonna be perfectly on the money but if you get the ball in your receivers range, you'd think they'd at least make an effort to catch it.

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

 

The UCLA defense was ranked 127/130 and the rushing attack was ranked below 100 as well. Their passing Offense was ranked 4th. It's safe to say that the talent around him was lacking. 

 

What you mean he didn't play linebacker as well??? BUST.  

[Wayne Arnold]

Quarterbacks are 95% crap shoot.

 

That's why it's not intelligent to give up an entire cupboard of draft picks to get one. Especially when there will still be quality ones available when it's your time to pick.

[Sky Diver]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What you mean he didn't play linebacker as well??? BUST.  

 

Which is obviously why you need a balanced team. One guy can't do it alone, which is my point.

9 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

This here... in watching several UCLA games they looked like a poorly coached team overall. The effort from some of his WRs was dismal. Rosen seemed to be one of the only guys working hard to make plays happen. I saw a few plays where his ball placement wasn't great but the ball was catchable with an adjustment from the WR. This WR in question was running a crossing route, the ball was a little bit behind him, receiver saw it but just kept running his route right to the sideline, didn't even make an attempt at catching it. Not every pass is gonna be perfectly on the money but if you get the ball in your receivers range, you'd think they'd at least make an effort to catch it.

 

In the A&M game he was heaving the ball up in the air and his WR's made plays. There was a big element of luck in that game.

[blacklabel]

2 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Which is obviously why you need a balanced team. One guy can't do it alone, which is my point.

 

In the A&M game he was heaving the ball up in the air and his WR's made plays. There was a big element of luck in that game.

 

Well that'd be a welcome change, wouldn't it? A QB willing to throw into tight coverage and give his WRs at least a chance to make a play.

[Wayne Arnold]

1 hour ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

If you replace Josh Rosen with say the college equivalent of Tyrod Taylor they would be no where near 18-20. UCLA was criminally bad and only stayed afloat because of the singular brilliance of Josh Rosen.

 

1 hour ago, Sky Diver said:

 

They were 10 - 3 the year before Rosen.

 

1 hour ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

Are you seriously arguing UCLA got worse with Josh Rosen? LOL!

 

Ouch. Just take your L and move on, bro. 

 

Sky Diver is killing fools in this thread. Rosen is a fraud.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

 

 

Ouch. Just take your L and move on, bro. 

 

Sky Diver is killing fools in this thread. Rosen is a fraud.

 

UCLA's roster was overturned with people declaring. That wasn't the same team but okay. Anyone arguing that UCLA got worse because they suddenly got a Top 3 QB isn't smart.

 

9 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Quarterbacks are 95% crap shoot.

 

That's why it's not intelligent to give up an entire cupboard of draft picks to get one. Especially when there will still be quality ones available when it's your time to pick.

 

Mason Rudolph? LOL!

Edited March 22, 2018 by FeelingOnYouboty

[Batman1876]

9 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Quarterbacks are 95% crap shoot.

 

That's why it's not intelligent to give up an entire cupboard of draft picks to get one. Especially when there will still be quality ones available when it's your time to pick.

If you ignore probabilities, history and the value of the 20 scouts each team has then you are right. 

[Sky Diver]

8 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Well that'd be a welcome change, wouldn't it? A QB willing to throw into tight coverage and give his WRs at least a chance to make a play.

 

Like I said, in quite a few plays he was heaving the ball up in the air; it wasn't throwing into tight coverage. Watch the 2nd half of the game.

3 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

UCLA's roster was overturned with people declaring. That wasn't the same team but okay. Anyone arguing that UCLA got worse because they suddenly got a Top 3 QB isn't smart.

 

One guy can't carry a team; hence my point. And certainly not Rosen.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Sky Diver

[FeelingOnYouboty]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Like I said, in quite a few plays he was heaving the ball up in the air; it wasn't throwing into tight coverage. Watch the 2nd half of the game.

 

One guy can't carry a team; hence my point.

 

It takes a lot for a team to be great. Correct. Nothing papers over the weaknesses better than a Top QB. 

[Wayne Cubed]

17 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Quarterbacks are 95% crap shoot.

 

That's why it's not intelligent to give up an entire cupboard of draft picks to get one. Especially when there will still be quality ones available when it's your time to pick.

 

So as previously said, carry on doing what the Bills have been doing for the past 21 years...

[Sky Diver]

8 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

It takes a lot for a team to be great. Correct. Nothing papers over the weaknesses better than a Top QB. 

 

Rosen: 18 - 20

McCarron: 36 - 4

[Ga boy]

8 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

What if we drafted the two stud ND offensive lineman in the first and a QB and a MLB in the 2nd?

Bama:  I say keep our picks, and get a QB in 2nd, and let's roll with AJ to the playoffs!!!!!!!!!

[Batman1876]

2 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Rosen: 18 - 20

McCarron: 36 - 4

Kellen Moore 50-3

[FeelingOnYouboty]

6 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Rosen: 18 - 20

McCarron: 36 - 4

 

McCarron is a decent QB. I'm glad he's here especially at that price but Alabama wasn't a transcendent team because of his singular talent. C'mon lol!

[Sky Diver]

5 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Kellen Moore 50-3

 

Boise State is an FBS team. McCarron competed against the best programs in the country and let Alabama to back to back national championships.

Just now, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

McCarron is a decent QB. I'm glad he's here especially at that price but Alabama wasn't a transcendent team because of his singular talent. C'mon lol!

 

They had a balanced team which is what McDermott and Beane are trying to build here.

[Batman1876]

9 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Boise State is an FBS team. McCarron competed against the best programs in the country and let Alabama to back to back national championships.

 

They had a balanced team which is what McDermott and Beane are trying to build here.

I get it you’re a Bama homer. That’s fine they are a fantastic program. But the most reasonable assumption is that AJ is just OK. That’s why he was picked late. That’s why he was passed by all the other free agent QBs. It’s why he signed for so little. Maybe he’ll prove everyone wrong and be more than just OK but the odds are against it. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Realism about the QB position regarding the Bills is that they haven't had one who is franchise caliber since 1996 and they will be looking to the draft to fill that void such that they can be perennial playoff contenders.   This is the case no matter how many AJM threads the OP starts. 

Edited March 22, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

I get it you’re a Bama homer. That’s fine they are a fantastic program. But the most reasonable assumption is that AJ is just OK. That’s why he was picked late. That’s why he was passed by all the other free agent QBs. It’s why he signed for so little. Maybe he’ll prove everyone wrong and be more than just OK but the odds are against it. 

 

We shall see. Hoping for the best. He was projected as a 2nd rd pick.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Sky Diver

[Wayne Arnold]

55 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

So as previously said, carry on doing what the Bills have been doing for the past 21 years...

 

I consider making reckless trades one of the symptoms of the last 21 years.

[Wayne Cubed]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I consider making reckless trades one of the symptoms of the last 21 years.

 

And what reckless trades would that be? Trades don't set franchises back. Not being aggressive in finding a guy to fill the most important position in sports, certainly does though.

[Wayne Arnold]

1 minute ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

And what reckless trades would that be? Trades don't set franchises back. Not being aggressive in finding a guy to fill the most important position in sports, certainly does though.

 

Trading up for JP Losman (2004) and Sammy Watkins (2014) come to mind.

[MAJBobby]

10 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

Rosen was 18 - 20 with UCLA. It’s ridiculous to think that one guy can carry a team on his shoulders. As good as a QB might be, he needs talent around him.

 

Oh, and McCarron was 36 - 4.

 

Realism of the QB position is if you judge their potential with Win Loss records you immediately fail

And the Mayfield guys have got me to rewatch alot of him and won me over. 

 

There are three QBs i would be happy with in the top 

 

Rosen, Mayfield and Darnold 

1 hour ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Rosen: 18 - 20

McCarron: 36 - 4

 

Weak and clearly the simple minded way of evaluating a QB 

[Wayne Cubed]

2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Trading up for JP Losman (2004) and Sammy Watkins (2014) come to mind.

 

Those act of the trades themselves aren't symptoms of why this franchise has been bad. Hell, 3 years later the Bills made the playoffs without Sammy Watkins. That trade had no effect. Reports are if they stayed put they really liked Eric Ebron, how is that any better?

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

10 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

Rosen was 18 - 20 with UCLA. It’s ridiculous to think that one guy can carry a team on his shoulders. As good as a QB might be, he needs talent around him.

 

Oh, and McCarron was 36 - 4.

 

Explain Josh Allen then? Not 1 of his WR, RB, TE or OL that I saw were mentioned about even being drafted, not one. If someone finds something different feel free to let me know.

[K-9]

10 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

 

I prefer Mayfield personally.

 

Perhaps a bit, but the point remains that to be successful, you need to build a team.

Isn’t the old adage that games are won and lost in the trenches? 

That’s all well and good, but building teams is not a linear process. Ever. Can’t say “gotta get this in place first, get that in place first” and then draft your QB like it’s a plug and play scenario.

 

If you don’t have a QB and have a chance to get one, you do it and worry about the rest later. 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Boise State is an FBS team. McCarron competed against the best programs in the country and let Alabama to back to back national championships.

 

They had a balanced team which is what McDermott and Beane are trying to build here.

 

Then maybe we should fire everyone Hire Bama AD and Saban and draft all Bama players. 

 

Ooo wait that wont work because you cant recruit here and get the best players in the nation to come to you and walk on to complete out talent your opponents 

[TheBrownBear]

You are just looking at UCLA's overall record since Rosen has been there.  UCLA was 17-13 with Rosen as a starter and 1-7 without him.  How did Alabama fare without McCarron?

[Wayne Arnold]

13 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Those act of the trades themselves aren't symptoms of why this franchise has been bad. Hell, 3 years later the Bills made the playoffs without Sammy Watkins. That trade had no effect. Reports are if they stayed put they really liked Eric Ebron, how is that any better?

 

There's no slam-dunk quarterback. You improve your odds of obtaining one by increasing your number aka accumulating draft pick quantity. Not giving draft picks away. Draft one at 12 then one again in the 2nd or 3rd round. 

[Wayne Cubed]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

There's no slam-dunk quarterback. You improve your odds of obtaining one by increasing your number aka accumulating draft pick quantity. Not giving draft picks away. Draft one at 12 then one again in the 2nd or 3rd round. 

 

There hasn't been a slam dunk since Andrew Luck and before that Peyton Manning, guess what... Good/Great QBs have still been drafted.

 

I agree you improve your odds by selecting more, one thing the Bills haven't been doing, but you don't increase them by selecting lower grade prospects. There's a reason they are graded lower. We selected plenty of Levi Browns, Petermans, Trent Edwards and picked up FA Brohms, Fitz, Taylor... all lower graded QBs. Nothing has changed. Do you know what they Bills haven't done? Selected a QB high in the draft. 

[Wayne Arnold]

11 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

There hasn't been a slam dunk since Andrew Luck and before that Peyton Manning, guess what... Good/Great QBs have still been drafted.

 

I agree you improve your odds by selecting more, one thing the Bills haven't been doing, but you don't increase them by selecting lower grade prospects. There's a reason they are graded lower. We selected plenty of Levi Browns, Petermans, Trent Edwards and picked up FA Brohms, Fitz, Taylor... all lower graded QBs. Nothing has changed. Do you know what they Bills haven't done? Selected a QB high in the draft. 

 

Watson was chosen at #12 and he's a beast. Prescott was chosen in the 4th round. Garoppolo and Carr both 2nd round picks. Russ Wilson and Nick Foles 3rd rounders. Cousins a 4th rounder.

 

These aren't outliers. Evaluating quarterbacks is hard as hell.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

If only the academic standards at UCLA were more like Bama. 

 

...but Alabama also pays better..........

[blacklabel]

4 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Like I said, in quite a few plays he was heaving the ball up in the air; it wasn't throwing into tight coverage. Watch the 2nd half of the game.

 

One guy can't carry a team; hence my point. And certainly not Rosen.

 

I've read comments on Rosen quite a few times that teammates and coaches view him as the type of player that, no matter the circumstance, he's one of those guys that can give his team a chance to win when the game is on the line. That's one of them intangible things. It'd be fun to experience games wherein we had some real, actual faith that the QB is gonna rally and pull off some comeback victories. 

 

And at least he was throwing it up there, giving his guys a chance.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Then maybe we should fire everyone Hire Bama AD and Saban and draft all Bama players. 

 

Ooo wait that wont work because you cant recruit here and get the best players in the nation to come to you and walk on to complete out talent your opponents 

 

The Saban disciples would like that.  I'd rather watch paint dry.  

[Putin]

13 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

Rosen was 18 - 20 with UCLA. It’s ridiculous to think that one guy can carry a team on his shoulders. As good as a QB might be, he needs talent around him.

 

Oh, and McCarron was 36 - 4.

Yes Good running game and especially defense had a lot to do with that 

13 hours ago, Virgil said:

That’s why some of us want Mayfield

I would say MOST of us 

[Sky Diver]

6 minutes ago, Putin said:

Yes Good running game and especially defense had a lot to do with that 

I would say MOST of us 

 

Any chance that he falls to 12?

[BullBuchanan]

13 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

Rosen was 18 - 20 with UCLA. It’s ridiculous to think that one guy can carry a team on his shoulders. As good as a QB might be, he needs talent around him.

 

Oh, and McCarron was 36 - 4.

 

Jared Zabransky was 32-5 

[BillsFan2313]

5 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

"After gaining the starting job in the end of the 1990 season as a true freshman (joined later by Jeff Tuel as the only two in school history), he quickly became the face of the Cougars offense. In 1992 Bledsoe led his team to a 9–3 record (ranking #10 in the coaches poll and #12 in the AP) and a 31–28 win against the Utah Utes in the Copper Bowl. "

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drew_Bledsoe

 

Washington State got better under Bledsoe. UCLA got worse after Rosen became the QB in 2015:

 

2014: 10 - 3

2015: 8 - 5

2016: 4 - 8

2017: 6 - 7

 

 

out of the 7 losses in 2017, he got hurt in one, and didn't play in 2. Of of the 4 losses he played a lot

463 yards against 25th ranked Memphis

480 yards against 20th ranked Standford

219 yards against Arizona

421 yards against 12 ranked USC

 

Yep, Rosen doesn't elevate a team, or was just that the team was horrid around him?

Edited March 22, 2018 by BillsFan2313

[Batman1876]

2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Watson was chosen at #12 and he's a beast. Prescott was chosen in the 4th round. Garoppolo and Carr both 2nd round picks. Russ Wilson and Nick Foles 3rd rounders. Cousins a 4th rounder.

 

These aren't outliers. Evaluating quarterbacks is hard as hell.

They are outliers. Those are low probability picks. What is bigger 30+20+15+10+1+1+0 or 80. On top of that you can’t draft 3 QBs and get them all sufficient reps and game time.