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Convince Me: Why Jackson or Rudolph Should be the Pick at 12 (if no trade up occurs)


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3 minutes ago, Doc said:

They shouldn't.  Either trade up for who you want or wait until another draft to draft a QB.

what if they want Jackson... or Rudolph for that matter?

 

and there is nothing in this thread that can be said that hasn't been harped and rehashed over and over again...

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Jackson, yes.  He has the potential to be something spectacular.   He needs to sit behind a teacher though, like McCown or McCarron.  Rudolph has a lot to like, but I keep seeing a lower-ceiling Gabbert/Bortles in him.   The Steelers like him as a project  and I think is well-suited for the second round, but I would never pick him in the first. I’m one more wrong than I am right though, so hopefully I’m wrong about this. To me, no quarterback in this draft has a higher bust potential than Rudolph. 

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3 minutes ago, DFT said:

Jackson, yes.  He has the potential to be something spectacular.   He needs to sit behind a teacher though, like McCown or McCarron.  Rudolph has a lot to like, but I keep seeing a lower-ceiling Gabbert/Bortles in him.   The Steelers like him as a project  and I think is well-suited for the second round, but I would never pick him in the first. I’m one more that I’m right though, so hopefully I’m wrong about this. To me, no quarterback in this draft has a higher bust potential than Rudolph. 

What makes him spectacular though?  Because he can run?

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Just now, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

What makes him spectacular though?  Because he can run?

That’s an understatement, but yes.  He is as gifted as a running QB as there has been, coming out.  But he has great intangibles, too.  There’s a whole demension to his game that was never developed and I think that’s what has teams like Buffalo and other QB needy teams intrigued.  It’s the teams that have QBs that worry me.  NE, NO and NYG all are said to be high on him.  

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1 minute ago, DFT said:

That’s an understatement, but yes.  He is as gifted as a running QB as there has been, coming out.  But he has great intangibles, too.  There’s a whole demension to his game that was never developed and I think that’s what has teams like Buffalo and other QB needy teams intrigued.  It’s the teams that have QBs that worry me.  NE, NO and NYG all are said to be high on him.  

But, how many running QBs have led their teams to Super Bowl wins in the modern era?

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7 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

he also threw for decent amount of yards in college. look at his throwing stats. they exist 

With truly no focus on mechanical development whatsoever.  He was wildly successful with or without his legs.   If he develops,  he could be the steel of this draft. He absolutely has to go to the right situation though. 

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

But, how many running QBs have led their teams to Super Bowl wins in the modern era?

Fair assessment.  You have the Newton’s, Wilson’s and the Vick’s, etc.  you could make an argument for Wentz as well.   But that’s the great thing about the NFL, is parody.  There was a time where the dual-threat QB was the hot button.  That time is coming back as more and more focus is placed on athletic abilities of QBs.  I don’t see him as a running quarterback as much as I see him as a gifted, under-developed prospect that has elite, elite, ELITE athleticism.  Like I said, I’m more wrong than right.  My wife wrote a book on it.  It’s in the non-fiction section.   

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13 minutes ago, Doc said:

They shouldn't.  Either trade up for who you want or wait until another draft to draft a QB.

 

But that probably means waiting until 2020. As I have said before something might come from left field for the 2019 draft like a one year starter playing his way into contention but as we stand now and today I don't think you are finding your franchise Quarterback in the 2019 draft.  

 

That said..... Jackson or Rudolph at #12 is a no for me. If I can't get up or get one of my top 3 at that spot I would take the BPA if that is a true impact player or slide back a few spots with a team who does want Jackson and collect more picks.  If either of the two of them are still there at #22 however, then I pull the trigger.  

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2 minutes ago, DFT said:

With truly no focus on mechanical development whatsoever.  He was wildly successful with or without his legs.   If he develops,  he could be the steel of this draft. He absolutely has to go to the right situation though. 

 

yup. i think he has to be with the right creative coach who will use him properly.  It's funny...people often say foles and other qbs will only be successful in certain systems. my immediate thought is...ok lets run that system.  

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Jackson is a project who could one day be something like a Michael Vick, a true weapon as a runner and a passer. He needs to develop. I actually see a lot of Cunningham in his game. 

 

Rudolph is a project who could some day be something like Brandon Weeden. He has the potential to be an average to below average backup. 

 

I wouldn't take either in the first round, but Jackson at least has the potential to be something. Jackson round 2, Rudolph round 3. 

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Just now, aristocrat said:

 

yup. i think he has to be with the right creative coach who will use him properly.  It's funny...people often say foles and other qbs will only be successful in certain systems. my immediate thought is...ok lets run that system.  

His future will be tied to his first coach.  I just hope that  he finds his way to a prospect developer and not someone like Doug Marrone. 

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3 minutes ago, jr1 said:

Lamar had Petrino mentoring him. He's more ready than a lot of people think

I disagree heavily and respectfully.  I love Petrino, but  my opinion is he left a lot of the development on the table (which is truly unlike him) and took advantage of his QBs natural athleticism. This kid has infinite untapped potential as a QB. 

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23 minutes ago, Rad Likes The Bills said:

what if they want Jackson... or Rudolph for that matter?

 

and there is nothing in this thread that can be said that hasn't been harped and rehashed over and over again...

 

Is that's who they want then fine.  I'm saying don't settle for a QB because/if the top-4 are off the board.

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Just now, DFT said:

His future will be tied to his first coach.  I just hope that  he finds his way to a prospect developer and not someone like Doug Marrone. 

 

i agree. it's funny. russell wilson would not have been successful imo on any other team than the seahawks. he has developed into a great qb. they had almost no offense the first few years with him. throwing for just over 3000 yards, running a lot but that defense allowed 14 points.   i hope we get the guy who will develop and we can put the team around him to develop.  That's why I am so hesitant to give up so many picks for a guy cause you can end up turning him into david carr.  the qbs needs to come into the right situation. 

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21 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

But, how many running QBs have led their teams to Super Bowl wins in the modern era?

 

Being too good at running isn't what has prevented "running QBs" from winning a Super Bowl. Not being a good enough passer or simply not having the fortune of being on a great team is. Guys like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Mike Vick, John Elway, Steve Young, etc. have proven that you can win with a "running QB". Only one team gets to win the Super Bowl each year and in a league with like 5 guys that you might consider to be "running QBs", the odds simply aren't in your favor in any given year that a "running QB" will win the Super Bowl.

 

But if Lamar becomes an average passer, your team will probably be a contender as long as the team around him isn't awful and he'll probably be an MVP candidate. I'd be okay with that.

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Just now, aristocrat said:

 

i agree. it's funny. russell wilson would not have been successful imo on any other team than the seahawks. he has developed into a great qb. they had almost no offense the first few years with him. throwing for just over 3000 yards, running a lot but that defense allowed 14 points.   i hope we get the guy who will develop and we can put the team around him to develop.  That's why I am so hesitant to give up so many picks for a guy cause you can end up turning him into david carr.  the qbs needs to come into the right situation. 

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. It is a total crapshoot to try and gauge that before they play, but this draft is loaded. I think there are so many teams out there that are excited that this draft is so QB heavy, because it means other fantastic players are going to fall to them. I love Josh Rosen as a fit for Buffalo, but if the brass thinks the better move is to stay at 12  and see who falls, while keeping all of their picks for what is a truly, ridiculously talented draft, then I see the intelligence in that. It will not be popular in Buffalo, but it could be a strong move. 

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1 minute ago, DFT said:

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. It is a total crapshoot to try and gauge that before they play, but this draft is loaded. I think there are so many teams out there that are excited that this draft is so QB heavy, because it means other fantastic players are going to fall to them. I love Josh Rosen as a fit for Buffalo, but if the brass thinks the better move is to stay at 12  and see who falls, while keeping all of their picks for what is a truly, ridiculously talented draft, then I see the intelligence in that. It will not be popular in Buffalo, but it could be a strong move. 

 

That's why I don't want them to package a ton of picks to move up. 

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22 minutes ago, Doc said:

They shouldn't.  Either trade up for who you want or wait until another draft to draft a QB.

  Take White in the 2nd and temper the expectations.  We have close to 100M next year and could trade picks to a team facing a salary issue and needing to unload a QB or would be willing to trade a QB.  Far better value in players we can use such as with Vea or R Smith.  Don't reach with your 12 or 22.

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5 minutes ago, DFT said:

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. It is a total crapshoot to try and gauge that before they play, but this draft is loaded. I think there are so many teams out there that are excited that this draft is so QB heavy, because it means other fantastic players are going to fall to them. I love Josh Rosen as a fit for Buffalo, but if the brass thinks the better move is to stay at 12  and see who falls, while keeping all of their picks for what is a truly, ridiculously talented draft, then I see the intelligence in that. It will not be popular in Buffalo, but it could be a strong move. 

  You can't worry about a few loud posters on a message board that is not officially tied to the team.  Beane should follow his board even if it means no trade up and no QB at 12.

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5 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Take White in the 2nd and temper the expectations.  We have close to 100M next year and could trade picks to a team facing a salary issue and needing to unload a QB or would be willing to trade a QB.  Far better value in players we can use such as with Vea or R Smith.  Don't reach with your 12 or 22.

And what has Mike White done to deserve 2nd round consideration? 

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4 minutes ago, DFT said:

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. It is a total crapshoot to try and gauge that before they play, but this draft is loaded. I think there are so many teams out there that are excited that this draft is so QB heavy, because it means other fantastic players are going to fall to them. I love Josh Rosen as a fit for Buffalo, but if the brass thinks the better move is to stay at 12  and see who falls, while keeping all of their picks for what is a truly, ridiculously talented draft, then I see the intelligence in that. It will not be popular in Buffalo, but it could be a strong move. 

 

i think we've gone off thread topic but i think the jets have already screwed up their trade. they ignored the offensive line. released wilkerson for a stupid reason. signed teddy b. they don't seem to have a plan and are winging it a bit.  with wilkerson they have a really nice d line. without him you just have to stop williams. much easier. they could have set the rookie up but they took a step back imo

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35 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Interested in hearing your arguments as to why you feel that Beane should take either Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 12, in the event that the Browns and Giants are unwilling to trade out of their spots.

 

Haven't read any responses yet...

 

1. We get to keep all nine of our draft picks - six in the first three rounds will be fun to look forward to and watch in training camp.

 

2. Rudolph is at-worst the second most accurate passer in this draft (arm strength is overrated as long as you have the requisite amount of it) and appears to be very sharp when talking X's and O's. He's also 6-5 with good speed and has used RPO's in college.

 

3. Lamar Jackson is a very young freak of nature who has improved dramatically as a passer over the last few years. He could have the highest ceiling among all of the quarterbacks and may turn into a superstar. 

 

4. The NFL's gradual offensive revolution combined with Daboll's year of college playcalling experience should allow for an easier transition for a QB that either ran few NFL concepts in college (Rudolph) or may not have the typical pro style skill set (Jackson). Look at how successful Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson have been.

 

At this point I think it's a no-brainer to stay at 12 and choose the best remaining QB on the board - which, in the long-run, may be the best quarterback in the draft.

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They should not be!! I can't think of ANY reason  for  them not to move  up to get Rosen. If we  get the 2nd pick and  Rosen or Darnold  are there to pick, that's what we absolutely need to do. Yes, its costly, and draft picks could help to, but get the QB while you can, and thats not something we have to worry about for a long time.

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40 minutes ago, Rad Likes The Bills said:

what if they want Jackson... or Rudolph for that matter?

 

and there is nothing in this thread that can be said that hasn't been harped and rehashed over and over again...

Take Rudolph at 22 or trade back into first to get him late. 

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2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Haven't read any responses yet...

 

1. We get to keep all nine of our draft picks - six in the first three rounds will be fun to look forward to and watch in training camp.

 

2. Rudolph is at-worst the second most accurate passer in this draft (arm strength is overrated as long as you have the requisite amount of it) and appears to be very sharp when talking X's and O's. He's also 6-5 with good speed and has used RPO's in college.

 

3. Lamar Jackson is a very young freak of nature who has improved dramatically as a passer over the last few years. He could have the highest ceiling among all of the quarterbacks and may turn into a superstar. 

 

4. The NFL's gradual offensive revolution combined with Daboll's year of college playcalling experience should allow for an easier transition for a QB that either ran few NFL concepts in college (Rudolph) or may not have the typical pro style skill set (Jackson). Look at how successful Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson have been.

 

At this point I think it's a no-brainer to stay at 12 and choose the best remaining QB on the board - which, in the long-run, may be the best quarterback in the draft.

Rudolph played in a very, very, VERY weak conference, from a defensive standpoint, and was used to dominating against horrible defensive backs.  As a result, his receivers (e.g. James Washington) were able to freely run wide open most of the time.  He also comes from a college system that has NEVER produced a franchise NFL QB.

If Jackson "improved dramatically as a passer" then why does have a sub 60% completion percentage?

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1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Rudolph played in a very, very, VERY weak conference, from a defensive standpoint, and was used to dominating against horrible defensive backs.  As a result, his receivers (e.g. James Washington) were able to freely run wide open most of the time.  He also comes from a college system that has NEVER produced a franchise NFL QB.

If Jackson "improved dramatically as a passer" then why does have a sub 60% completion percentage?

Agree 100%!  Jackson improved as a player from his Boca days, but he is still vastly underdeveloped as a passer.   Rudolph....   I just hope I’m wrong about him.  I do.   I don’t wish for any prospect to fail. He’s got skills, but I think those skills were amplified by his team, the conference, and the offense. Again, I am wrong more than I am ever right. 

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3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Rudolph played in a very, very, VERY weak conference, from a defensive standpoint, and was used to dominating against horrible defensive backs.  As a result, his receivers (e.g. James Washington) were able to freely run wide open most of the time.  He also comes from a college system that has NEVER produced a franchise NFL QB.

If Jackson "improved dramatically as a passer" then why does have a sub 60% completion percentage?

 

take a look at his wide receiver drops. adjusted his comp percent is 64 percent. 38 drops.  

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17 minutes ago, chris heff said:

John Elway had 33 rushing TDS and rushed for 3400 yards.

Defenses are a lot faster and more complex today and modern rules made it much more advantageous to be a pocket passer. Ever running QB is forced to try and be a pocket passer as defenses always catch up after a year or so of tape.

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