First Round QB Busts since 2000

[BillsFan17]

28 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

He had one bad game where is was facing ferocious pressure. Need to improve the OL.

 

 

Digging out from the mess Whaley created. We were in cap hell. Time to reload with all the picks. A potential franchise QB will be there for us without changing our draft position. 

Picks 12 and 22 are not going to offer a blue chip QB spec.

[Overdue Bill]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I happens. It is one of the most difficult positions in sports. It's hard to do physically and mentally. Colleges do not do a good job of preparing these kids, and generally they get drafted by teams that suck. Then they get thrown into the fire too quickly, develop terrible habits, and flame out. When there are only about 10-12 good quarterbacks in the NFL, it tells you how hard it is. 

 

But it is also about opportunity, fit, and coaching. How many of these guys started too soon for coaches who got fired?

 

I mean if Trent Edwards got drafted by New England he'd probably still be in the league. 

 

Steve Mariucci completely ruined both Giovanni Carmazzi and Joey Harrington. If Gio got drafted by New England in the sixth round, maybe history is quite different. 

 

If Mo Lewis doesn't blow up Drew Bledsoe's spleen, we probably never even hear of Brady. If San Diego doesn't move on from Brees, giving him to Sean Patyton, Brees' career is probably quite different.  

 

A lot of things have to go right, but first you have to have the talent. Once they are in your building it is on the organization and player to make it work. 

 

I agree...which is why you had better be sure before you give away all of your drafts picks. I hope we do NOT move up in the draft. There is no guarantee that any of the top 4 QBs will be the Franchise QB...I can guarantee that we will be in a much worse position talent wise if we give up all of our 1st and 2nd rounds picks to get one (poitential) savior who may not even contribute in 2018.

[Santana]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

My brother is an Eagles fan.  For years, he felt the same way as many people on this board. 

 

He didn't want to see his team "overdraft" players, and was always worried about getting value from his picks.  He didn't believe a Quarterback could succeed without a fantastic O-Line in front of him, a great running game and receiving weapons all over the field.  So the best plan was always kicking the can down the road, until the rest of the roster was set.  Being a big NCAA fan, every QB prospect that popped up was also loaded with flaws.  There was always a better option "next year."

 

He just about lost his mind when the Eagles MORTGAGED THEIR FUTURE to move up for Carson Wentz.  He was depressed and wondered how a rookie QB could ever succeed with the "crappy roster" and "bad defense" around him.

 

Wentz wasn't even half-way through his rookie season before my brother completely changed his tune.  He told me that he could IMMEDIATELY see the difference in what Wentz brought to the table, even as a raw/inexperienced player.  Keep in mind that my brother watched Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb for years.  And when Nick Foles was playing fantastic, my brother was always convinced he was a "system quarterback."  But in less than 8 games, he immediately knew that Wentz was going to transform their franchise.  And only a year later, the Eagles were hoisting their first Lombardi trophy.

I could understand that but lets be realistic when we are talking about Wentz compared to this draft class. He was clear cut the best QB in that draft and he had a great coaching staff that knew how to develop a young QB. Frank Reich and Doug Pederson are about as good as it gets.

[Sky Diver]

26 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Miami drafts Jake Long  best player in the draft (Supposedly)

Atlanta drafts Matt Ryan 

 

Which team wants a do over?

 

 

I think 6 is the only reasonable spot to potentially move to.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Santana said:

I could understand that but lets be realistic when we are talking about Wentz compared to this draft class. He was clear cut the best QB in that draft and he had a great coaching staff that knew how to develop a young QB. Frank Reich and Doug Pederson are about as good as it gets.

 

He was SO clear cut that he was the SECOND QB taken that draft.

 

[Santana]

2 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

He was SO clear cut that he was the SECOND QB taken that draft.

 

Well by a coaching staff that knew who was the better of the 2 QB's yes. He was better than Goff and their coaching staff was a crap ton better than LA's at the time.

3 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

He was SO clear cut that he was the SECOND QB taken that draft.

 

I wasn't knocking your brother because he is right, but who's coaching the QB is just as much of a deciding factor on how good they will be and how quickly it happens.

[Sky Diver]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

When does a TSW account with the name SaviorMcCarron show up? 

 

After a SaviorRosen shows up or whoever else the flavor of the day is?

[apuszczalowski]

2 hours ago, CountDorkula said:

I only had to go back to 2008 to outdue your list. I dont know what your list is trying to prove. 

 

Mahomes

Watson

Trubisky

Goff

Wentz

Winston

Mariotta

Bortles

Bridgewater(?)

Luck

Tannehill

Newton

Stafford

Flacco

Ryan

No its not. The bills are going to make a mistake if they trade up, its all but guaranteed.

 

That's why they should stay pat and draft a guard and DT, so we can continue to suck for the next 15-20 years. 

A little early to call some of those guys franchise QBs. Mahommes has barely seen the field, Watson hasn't played an entire season yet.

 

You would feel comfortable trading away the Bills top 6 picks this year to get Trubisky or Bortles, or Tannehill? Would you be happy having Winston, or Marriotta or Bridgewater using those picks? The top guys in this years draft or more likely to be the next one of those players then the elite QBs like Brady or Manning or Brees. They don't have to mortgage their draft and still get a Jackson, or Rudolph who could be just as good or better then Tannehill or Bortles.

[MarkyMannn]

2 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

Losman,Tebow, Ponder are missing from this illustrious list.  

I knew that list was too short.  I noticed the JP too

[CountDorkula]

10 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

A little early to call some of those guys franchise QBs. Mahommes has barely seen the field, Watson hasn't played an entire season yet.

 

You would feel comfortable trading away the Bills top 6 picks this year to get Trubisky or Bortles, or Tannehill? Would you be happy having Winston, or Marriotta or Bridgewater using those picks? The top guys in this years draft or more likely to be the next one of those players then the elite QBs like Brady or Manning or Brees. They don't have to mortgage their draft and still get a Jackson, or Rudolph who could be just as good or better then Tannehill or Bortles.

 

Well since you already know the outcome, I guess there is no need to debate this anymore. 

 

The Bills will be stuck in suck forever. 

[26CornerBlitz]

15 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

After a SaviorRosen shows up or whoever else the flavor of the day is?

 

A worthy name based on actual talent. 

[Tyrod's friend]

2 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

Two problems with this data point:

• Pro Bowl is meaningless; All-Pro is the standard
• Time frame is entirely too long. 15 years covers the current span of quality QB play; if you'd prefer to get back to the entire careers of people like Peyton Manning, so be it. 
  
  Do we honestly care that in 1993 someone drafted an eventual Pro Bowl QB in the 8th round?

[Sky Diver]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

A worthy name based on actual talent. 

 

Haha. Have you started working on his bust for the HOF yet?

[Mickey]

Recent headlines featuring the phrase: "cost too much"

 

Totally Mediocre Man Passes on Date with Super Model Because:

"Dinner With Her Would Cost Too Much"

-------------The Daily Loser                                                                                    

Man Gives Away Ferrari: "Repairs cost too much!"

-------------The Idiot Street Journal                                                                     

Man Offered Immortality, Says No!

"Living Costs Too Much"

-------------The Mediocre Observer                                                                     

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Santana said:

I could understand that but lets be realistic when we are talking about Wentz compared to this draft class. He was clear cut the best QB in that draft and he had a great coaching staff that knew how to develop a young QB. Frank Reich and Doug Pederson are about as good as it gets.

 

Some of the top guys in this draft class (Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen in my opinion) have just as much potential as Wentz did. 

And Wentz wasn't the "clear cut best" QB of that class, which should be obvious because the Rams took Goff first.

 

The ability of a coaching staff to "develop" a Quarterback is overrated.  Coaches can only work with the talent they are given. 

We always hear about the Bills failing to develop quarterbacks like JP Losman and EJ Manuel.  But neither of those guys did squat in the NFL after going to other coaching staffs either.  It wasn't the coaches, it was the player.

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Two problems with this data point:

• Pro Bowl is meaningless; All-Pro is the standard
• Time frame is entirely too long. 15 years covers the current span of quality QB play; if you'd prefer to get back to the entire careers of people like Peyton Manning, so be it. 
  
  Do we honestly care that in 1993 someone drafted an eventual Pro Bowl QB in the 8th round?

Those aren't problems; those are your preferences.  The data set is what it is and please feel free to do whatever you want with it, including disregard it.

[BillsFan130]

4 hours ago, CountDorkula said:

I don't think any fall.

 

To many QB Needy teams up top.

 

TOM BRADY WAS A 6TH RD PICK. ITS SCIENCE THAT YOU DONT NEED TO DRAFT ONE IN RD 1.

 

TOM BRADY!!!

Tom Brady is 1 in 100 billion

 

It was an absolute fluke pick and the odds of another 6th round QB winning 5 Super Bowls is probably 1 in 100 billion

[CountDorkula]

2 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Tom Brady is 1 in 100 billion

 

It was an absolute fluke pick and the odds of another 6th round QB winning 5 Super Bowls is probably 1 in 100 billion

/Sarcsm****

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, CountDorkula said:

/Sarcsm****

Oh lol. Sorry about that 

[CountDorkula]

Just now, billsfan11 said:

Oh lol. Sorry about that 

No problem, i'm just tired of people pointing out QB's that were taken in late rounds that are, like you said the exception, not the rule.

[BillsFan130]

Just now, CountDorkula said:

No problem, i'm just tired of people pointing out QB's that were taken in late rounds that are, like you said the exception, not the rule.

100 percent agreed

[SouthNYfan]

7 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

No problem, i'm just tired of people pointing out QB's that were taken in late rounds that are, like you said the exception, not the rule.

 

6 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

100 percent agreed

 

 

It's kinda like cars.

You can bet your bottom dollar that Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla is going to run forever and be reliable, even if there is a lemon from time to time.

Vs

Chevy cavalier/Cobalt/Cruze/whatever small car name they use. Sure there have been some reliable vehicles in the bunch of Chevy cars, but overall, it's a safer bet to go with the Honda/Toyota vs the Chevy for reliability.

 

Honda and Toyota are the top picks in the draft, Chevy is the late round flyer.

 

I drive a Honda.

So does my wife.

 

[Tyrod's friend]

21 minutes ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

Those aren't problems; those are your preferences.  The data set is what it is and please feel free to do whatever you want with it, including disregard it.

yeah.

Data <> Information. Thanks.

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, slaphappy said:

Need a list of can't miss prospects that a team moved up to draft in the top 5 that ended up busting. Taking one at 12 isn't the same as giving away the farm to take "the guy".

 

Since 2000 ...

2004 ... the Bills traded up to get JP Losman

2005 ... the Redskins traded up to get Jason Campbell (yeah, he was a bust ... if he hadn't been a first rounder, teams wouldn't have started him)

2009 ... the Jests traded up to take Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez and the Bucs traded up to take Josh Freeman

2012 ... the Redskins traded up to take Robert Griffin III

 

Sanchez was a #5 pick and Griffin was taken at #2.  Lots of fans make the excuse for Griffin that his injury wrecked his career but the reality is that he never mastered any of the skills QBs need in order to be successful.  He tried to continue to play the way he did as a rookie, and he couldn't do that physically any more.  His inability to master the cerebral aspects of being a QB doomed Griffin more than his injury.  

[prissythecat]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

Since 2000 ...

2004 ... the Bills traded up to get JP Losman

2005 ... the Redskins traded up to get Jason Campbell (yeah, he was a bust ... if he hadn't been a first rounder, teams wouldn't have started him)

2009 ... the Jests traded up to take Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez and the Bucs traded up to take Josh Freeman

2012 ... the Redskins traded up to take Robert Griffin III

 

Sanchez was a #5 pick and Griffin was taken at #2.  Lots of fans make the excuse for Griffin that his injury wrecked his career but the reality is that he never mastered any of the skills QBs need in order to be successful.  He tried to continue to play the way he did as a rookie, and he couldn't do that physically any more.  His inability to master the cerebral aspects of being a QB doomed Griffin more than his injury.  

 

+1

[Captain Hindsight]

5 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

It's a lengthy list. There are no guarantees in this business.

 

Manziel

Manual

Weeden

RGIII

Gabbert

Locker

Bradford

Kolb

Quinn 

Russel

Leinart

Young

Cambell

Harrington

Couch

Kolb was a second rounder.

 

Missing Losman, Ponder ect. 

 

This list is incomplete and inaccurate 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Captain Hindsight said:

Kolb was a second rounder.

 

Missing Losman, Ponder ect. 

 

This list is incomplete and inaccurate 

 

Not to mention irrelevant. 

[Sky Diver]

Taking a break from casting the bronze bust of Rosen for the HOF?

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Sky Diver

[reddogblitz]

5 hours ago, mjt328 said:

If you want to succeed, you can't be afraid of failing.  I would rather swing for the fences and strikeout, as opposed to playing it safe and stockpiling talent at other positions.

 

Doesn't have to be either or.  Sometimes you play it safe by not swinging at a high hearer on 3 and 2.  Then you steal 2nd.  The next guy hits a seeing eye grounder and you'e to 3rd.  The next guys hits a long fly SAC and, guess what, YOU SCORE!!

 

Perhaps that's what Mighty Casey should have done?

 

Were you happy with EJ and JP?  They were swing for the fences guys that failed.

 

I'm all for swinging if it's a really good pitch.  I have no desire in swinging for high outside curve balls.

[N.Y. Orangeman]

1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:

yeah.

Data <> Information. Thanks.

 You prefer All-Pro over Pro Bowl for datasets and the premise of your 15 year period requirement is nonsensical.  Again, these are your preferences (which is fine), but do nothing to undermine the validity of the data/information.

Edited March 19, 2018 by N.Y. Orangeman

[Manther]

11 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

Losman,Tebow, Ponder are missing from this illustrious list.  

Off the top off my head more than that are missing.  Akili Smith Bengals?  Same year as Ciuch and McNabb?

10 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

And the hits from that same time period include:

 

Eli Manning - 2 Super Bowl rings

Ben Roethlisberger - 2 Super Bowl rings

Aaron Rodgers - 1 Super Bowl ring

Joe Flacco - 1 Super Bowl ring

Carson Wentz - 1 Super Bowl ring

Not to mention guys like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton, who got their teams very close to winning a championship.

 

 

If you want to succeed, you can't be afraid of failing.  I would rather swing for the fences and strikeout, as opposed to playing it safe and stockpiling talent at other positions.

 

 

 

 

Agreed.  Take your shot.  I feel the process to evaluate QBs in the last 5 year’s has improved AND with the pay skill lessening the blow of missing in the first round has changed the NFL.

 

Its a new day and you must take your shot!

[BuffaloBillyG]

11 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

When does a TSW account with the name SaviorMcCarron show up? 

 

11 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

After he lights it up.

 

...in the first preseason game.

[Tyrod's friend]

4 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

 You prefer All-Pro over Pro Bowl for datasets and the premise of your 15 year period requirement is nonsensical.  Again, these are your preferences (which is fine), but do nothing to undermine the validity of the data/information.

Data can be valid without being information. Information is of course useful data. 

By presenting it you are suggesting that getting to the Pro Bowl is some sort of meaningful hurdle. Hardly is. And beyond that, I doubt that anyone here is particularly interested in whether or not Elvis Grbec or Trent Green were drafted late and both got last minute access to a Pro Bowl. It is particularly the intersection of the age of the information and the watered down aspect of just making a Pro Bowl that makes it less information and just ... data.

[apuszczalowski]

8 hours ago, CountDorkula said:

 

Well since you already know the outcome, I guess there is no need to debate this anymore. 

 

The Bills will be stuck in suck forever. 

Yeah, because if you just trade up a lot of picks to the top of the draft for a QB you automatically no longer suck

 

I never said I knew the outcome, but are any of these top 4 QBs being projected to be the next Brady, Brees, Luck or Manning?

Odds are they are closer to being the next Winston or Marriotta, guys who are good players, but not can't miss gotta have franchise guys that guarantee you championships....

 

You don't need to have an elite Franchise Qb to be good/great if you can build a great team around them. Foles won the Eagles a SB, yes Wentz got them to the playoffs, but Foles had to step in and take it the rest of the way to beat one of the best defences and one of the best teams in the league.

 

Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor were QBs for teams that made the playoffs while Matt Stafford, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott sat watching the playoffs from their TVs at home.

[N.Y. Orangeman]

40 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Data can be valid without being information. Information is of course useful data. 

By presenting it you are suggesting that getting to the Pro Bowl is some sort of meaningful hurdle. Hardly is. And beyond that, I doubt that anyone here is particularly interested in whether or not Elvis Grbec or Trent Green were drafted late and both got last minute access to a Pro Bowl. It is particularly the intersection of the age of the information and the watered down aspect of just making a Pro Bowl that makes it less information and just ... data.

edit:  Nevermind.....

Edited March 20, 2018 by N.Y. Orangeman

[Jay_Fixit]

Oh, Kevin Kolb was drafted in the first. Good to know...

[CountDorkula]

10 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

Yeah, because if you just trade up a lot of picks to the top of the draft for a QB you automatically no longer suck

 

I never said I knew the outcome, but are any of these top 4 QBs being projected to be the next Brady, Brees, Luck or Manning?

Odds are they are closer to being the next Winston or Marriotta, guys who are good players, but not can't miss gotta have franchise guys that guarantee you championships....

 

You don't need to have an elite Franchise Qb to be good/great if you can build a great team around them. Foles won the Eagles a SB, yes Wentz got them to the playoffs, but Foles had to step in and take it the rest of the way to beat one of the best defences and one of the best teams in the league.

 

Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor were QBs for teams that made the playoffs while Matt Stafford, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott sat watching the playoffs from their TVs at home.

 

I love this argument. Foles played at an elite level, and is also an outlier. Next you'll tell me that Trent Dilfer won a superbolw 15 years ago. 

 

How many times have the Bills tried to build a team without a QB and failed? The Bills have the least amount of passing yards in the NFL since Kelly retired. Coincidence that they have sucked for so long, I think not.

 

Who are the top Teams every Year and what do they have in common?

 

[apuszczalowski]

Whenever it doesn't suit your out the boards narrative it's an outlier and doesn't count. The Bills have drafted 1st round And before and it didn't work out. They have gone with retreads and it didn't work out, they have also gone with under the radar later picks and it hasn't worked out. For whatever reason, and it's not always just the QB, they have been mediocre at best for a long time. They have had poor coaching as part of the cause, they have had times where the offence was actually good and the defence held them back, and other times where the defence was great and the offence was bad. 

 

Some of the better And in the league were not top of the draft 1st rounder (Wilson, Brees, Brady, Prescott, everyone's new favorite Garapolo, Cousins). Theres also guys taken near the top that i doubt anyone would be willing to trade the boatload of picks they want to move in this draft for (Winston, Marriotta, Bortles, Tannehill, Smith)

 

No One can even decide who the best QB is in this draft, not because they are all so great, but because they all have some big flaws. That's why people have said this draft is more quantity over quality for QBs. Theres also lot of decent/good ones, just not elite ones. Just because everyone thinks the Bills have to have a  elite one doesn't mean that if the Bills run out and throw a ton of picks out to move up and get one they will have some elite franchise starter for the next 10-15 years.

 

It may be wiser to stay put and take the 5th best guy in the draft and save the rest of the picks to build up around them rather then blow a ton of picks hoping that the guy they chose may turn out to be the next elite QB.

 

If the QBs in this draft where viewed as beimg the next Aaron Rodgers/Brees/Manning(s)/Brady elite QB, there would be almost no on arguing not to spend whatever it takes to get one. 

[Santana]

20 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

Some of the top guys in this draft class (Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen in my opinion) have just as much potential as Wentz did. 

And Wentz wasn't the "clear cut best" QB of that class, which should be obvious because the Rams took Goff first.

 

The ability of a coaching staff to "develop" a Quarterback is overrated.  Coaches can only work with the talent they are given. 

We always hear about the Bills failing to develop quarterbacks like JP Losman and EJ Manuel.  But neither of those guys did squat in the NFL after going to other coaching staffs either.  It wasn't the coaches, it was the player.

 

The ability of a coaching staff to develop a QB is NOT overrated. Just like your boy Goff, how was he with Jeff Fisher compared to being with Sean McVay? How about the QB's that Pat Shurmur has worked with? Of course it's not 100% but it drastically helps.

[SoTier]

The OP's list is not accurate.  Here are the QBs taken in first round by year between 2000 and 2014 from DraftHistory.com.  The busts are bolded.

2000 #22 Chad Pennington*

2001 #1 Michael Vick

2002 #1 David Carr, #3 Joey Harrington, #32 Patrick Ramsey

2003 #1 Carson Palmer, #7 Byron Leftwich, #19 Kyle Boller, #22 Rex Grossman

2004 #1 Eli Manning, #4 Phillip Rivers, #11 Ben Roethlisberger, #22 JP Losman

2005 #1 Alex Smith, #24 Aaron Rodgers, #25 Jason Campbell

2006 #3 Vince Young, #10 Matt Leinart, #11 Jay Cutler

2007 #1 JaMarcus Russell, #22 Brady Quinn

2008 #3 Matt Ryan, #18 Joe Flacco

2009 #1 Matthew Stafford*, #5 Mark Sanchez, #17 Josh Freeman

2010 #1 Sam Bradford, #25 Tim Tebow

2011 #1 Cam Newton, #8 Jake Locker*, #10 Blaine Gabbert, #12 Christian Ponder

2012 #1 Andrew Luck*, #2 Robert Griffin III*, #8 Ryan Tannehill, #22 Brandon Weeden

2013 #16 EJ Manuel

2014 #3 Blake Bortles, #22 Johnny Manziel, #32 Teddy Bridgewater*

* injuries may have compromised career

 

Who on this list are consensus "franchise QBs" -- truly outstanding QBs who have been instrumental in making their teammates better; who have repeatedly shown the kind of leadership that enables teams to win close games, even coming from behind; and who have done that for more than a few years?  I would argue that that list is pretty short: E Manning, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Ryan, and Stafford. 

 

Other excellent QBs a notch below the top QBs are Pennington, Vick, Palmer, Rivers, Newton, and Luck. 

 

Smith, Cutler, Flacco, Bradford, Tannehill, and Bortles are decent starting QBs but except for Flacco, all of them have been disappointments to the teams that drafted them.  Flacco hasn't been the same QB who won the Super Bowl for more than just last season, so since then, he's been a disappointment, too.

 

What these lists are missing are some of best QBs in the NFL because they weren't drafted in the first round at all!  Consider ...

  2000 6th round  Tom Brady

  2001 2nd round Drew Brees

  2004 UDFA Tony Romo

  2004 3rd Matt Schaub

  2011 2nd Andy Dalton

  2012 3rd Russell Wilson, 4th Kirk Cousins

  2014 2nd Derek Carr

 

There are also numerous later round QBs who were at least serviceable QBs like 3rd rounder Josh McCown, 4th rounders David Garrard and Kyle Orton, 5th rounder Mark Bulger, 6th rounders Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor, seventh rounder Ryan Fitzpatrick, and UDFA Case Keenum, which is more than one can say for many of the first round busts who didn't even make decent backups.

 

The biggest fallacy getting bandied around on TBD is that if the Bills don't trade up to draft a QB prospect in the 2018, they're doomed to mediocrity or worse for the foreseeable future.  In reality, numerous teams have found serviceable, even great QBs, after the first round.  Is it as likely as finding one in the first round?  Of course not because we all know the very best prospects go at the top of the draft no matter what position they play, and the best prospects have more success than marginal ones. 

 

Unfortunately, with QBs more than any other position, the opportunities for QBs who are not first round picks are severely limited.  Most second or third or sixth round QBs don't ever get real shots at starting jobs.  Among those who actually do, however, they seem to "hit" at least close to the same rate as first round picks taken outside the top five. 

 

Labeling successful QBs drafted outside the first round as "outliers" and dismissing them ignores the role opportunity, coaching, and support plays in ANY QB's success.   Drafting a QB in the first round, even in the top five, doesn't guarantee that he'll be a franchise QB, and even if he has all the talent in the world, he needs nurturing.  Consider this: Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson came into the NFL the same year, but Wilson went to a playoff team in search of a starting QB while Luck went to a team lacking talent on the field, along the sidelines, and in the FO.  Luck has much more talent than Wilson but it's been largely wasted because of the lousy situation he's in in Indy.

 

Some TBD posters need to remember this when they're tempted to hysteria over the Bills QB situation.