[A Look Back] Philadelphia Fans In Shambles: Eagles mortgage future by trading up to #2 pick

[Fetou]

 

I found it very intriguing to look back at the situation surrounding the 2016 draft. Take a gander at the fan reactions.

[JinxedBill1]

Here come the "no weintz in this draft" crowd.  

 

To to which I say who was weintz before weintz?  

[Fetou]

Just now, JinxedBill1 said:

Here come the "no weintz in this draft" crowd.  

 

To to which I say who was weintz before weintz?  

 

You will see the words "project", "average", "not Mariota" etc. etc. 

 

You see they should have waited for a TRUE QB prospect to come sometime in the indeterminate future. That prospect would have  had no question marks. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Great find. Lays the hammer on the qb haters.

[Real McClappy]

Worked out pretty damn good for the Eagles. The Browns passing on Wentz before hindsight was dumb.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2017/04/the_carson_wentz_trade_tracker.html

 

Posted April 29, 2017 at 11:23 AM | Updated May 01, 2017 at 03:54 PM

 

 

 

 

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Carson Wentz photo by The Associated Press

Following the 2016 Browns-Eagles trade

BEREA, Ohio – When the Browns drafted Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer in Friday’s second round of the 2017 NFL Draft, he became the ninth player tied to last year’s pre-draft trade with the Eagles.

The trade – which fans might always remember for the Browns passing on the chance to draft Carson Wentz - originally resulted in the Browns giving up two picks in exchange for five from the Eagles. The Browns have traded four of those five picks, with a 2018 second-round pick the only one left untouched (as of now).

Those five picks from the Eagles have turned into 10 additional picks via the four trades. The haul of picks the Browns have accumulated from the deal won’t end until the 2018 draft. So let's take a closer look at where the path from last year's trade has led.

- By Scott Patsko, cleveland.com

 

 

Carson Wentz photo by Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com

Breaking down the 2016 deal

Here’s a look at what each team got in the trade:

Browns got

2016 first-round pick (No. 8)

2016 third-round pick (No. 77)

2016 fourth-round pick (No. 100)

2017 first-round pick (No. 12)

2018 second-round pick (TBD)

Eagles got

2016 first-round pick (No. 2, Carson Wentz, QB)

2017 fourth-round pick (No. 139, traded to Vikings for No. 132, Donnell Pumphrey, RB)

[MJS]

I did think the Eagles traded a lot, but I liked Went so I understood why. I remember thinking the Rams were dumb for not taking Wentz, but it seems to be working out for them too.

 

I'd like to see how things turn out for the Bears, who traded a lot to get Trubisky. I thought they were dumb to do it.

[CuddyDark]

I wanted the Bills to trade 3 1st for Wentz.

14 minutes ago, JinxedBill1 said:

Here come the "no weintz in this draft" crowd.  

 

To to which I say who was weintz before weintz?  

Luck. Eli Manning. Cam Newton.

[Bring it]

I see your point in this. But, also consider Washington trading up to get RG3. If they had not also grabbed Cousins the bust would have seemed even worse. 

Im not against moving up for a Qb and how do you really know which one? 

Its like calling plays. When they work your a genius. When they don,t you are a horrible coach. An example is Doug Pederson. Super bowl, 4th and goal and he goes for the td. Honestly I would have kicked the field goal and probably lost the game!

[Fetou]

4 minutes ago, Bring it said:

I see your point in this. But, also consider Washington trading up to get RG3. If they had not also grabbed Cousins the bust would have seemed even worse. 

Im not against moving up for a Qb and how do you really know which one? 

Its like calling plays. When they work your a genius. When they don,t you are a horrible coach. An example is Doug Pederson. Super bowl, 4th and goal and he goes for the td. Honestly I would have kicked the field goal and probably lost the game!

 

I almost posted this myself as a caveat. You could probably find threads of Redskins fans celebrating that trade up when it happened, and even more so a full year after. Perhaps without Shanahan's handling history would be different.

 

Ultimately, there is no sure thing when it comes to finding a QB. Your best chance is always going to be the best prospects, the ones that go at the top. Waiting around for Peyton Manning and hoping you have the worst record in the NFL the same year is not a realistic long term draft strategy.

 

If you hit on a franchise QB, there is almost no haul of assets that can pry him away from you. The Browns could offer their entire draft this year with two top 5 picks for Wentz and get rejected.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Fetou

[OldTimer1960]

It appears to have worked out for Philly, but note that they moved up fro pick 8, not 21.  Future draft picks in trades are typically “discounted” by a round per year in the future they are.  So look at what Philly gave up:

1, 3 and 4 plus future 1=2,(discount by 1 round)future 2=4(2 years out discounted by 2 rounds). - so equivalent to 1 First 1 second, 1 third and 2 fourths.

 

How do you think the Redskins fans feel about the trade up for Robert Griffin?  If they hadn’t also drafted Cousins in the 4th, think how bad they would still be.

 

(Sorry, I obviously didn’t see the post above that is very similar)

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by OldTimer1960

[Manther]

18 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

I wanted the Bills to trade 3 1st for Wentz.

Luck. Eli Manning. Cam Newton.

Disagree....IMO Luck, Eli and Newton had less question mark. Eli and Newton did have question marks though.  I just think Wentz had more question marks.

13 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

It appears to have worked out for Philly, but note that they moved up fro pick 8, not 21.  Future draft picks in trades are typically “discounted” by a round per year in the future they are.  So look at what Philly gave up:

1, 3 and 4 plus future 1=2,(discount by 1 round)future 2=4(2 years out discounted by 2 rounds). - so equivalent to 1 First 1 second, 1 third and 2 fourths.

 

How do you think the Redskins fans feel about the trade up for Robert Griffin?  If they hadn’t also drafted Cousins in the 4th, think how bad they would still be.

 

(Sorry, I obviously didn’t see the post above that is very similar)

 

Thanks for the breakdown!

[nedboy7]

People who dont want a frencheyes qb this year are sooo dumb!! 

[RochesterRob]

26 minutes ago, Bring it said:

I see your point in this. But, also consider Washington trading up to get RG3. If they had not also grabbed Cousins the bust would have seemed even worse. 

Im not against moving up for a Qb and how do you really know which one? 

Its like calling plays. When they work your a genius. When they don,t you are a horrible coach. An example is Doug Pederson. Super bowl, 4th and goal and he goes for the td. Honestly I would have kicked the field goal and probably lost the game!

  Which leads us back to the issue in that neither Rosen nor Darnold and down the line are guaranteed to be a sure fire success. Philly traded up from 8 so that just reinforces the notion to me that it will cost us three 1st's and three 2nd's and most likely more to go up to 2.  That's assuming that Cleveland does not feel that upsets their plans and they in turn take their QB at 1 and come up behind us to trade with Indy to get Barkley at 3.  At that point we may have egg on our face if Cleveland takes the guy we may rate substantially higher than the other QB prospects.  Giving away the top half of the draft two years running will cripple this franchise even if we hit on a few FA's.  Lastly, the guys saying that they will cut the Bills some slack for mortgaging the future will be nowhere to be found when this gamble fails.  They will be back under a new account brandishing torches and pitchforks at the gates of OBD and saying how they knew this whole thing was destined to fail.

Edited March 11, 2018 by RochesterRob

[Victory Formation]

Eagles were a franchise QB away, they were loaded at nearly every position besides QB.

[OldTimer1960]

9 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

People who dont want a frencheyes qb this year are sooo dumb!! 

NOBODY doesn’t want a franchise QB.  

 

BUT, you have to realize that just because you trade a TON to move up to take one of these guys doesn’t mean that you just locked in someone like Brady, Rodgers or Brees who can just carry a weak supporting cast.  IF you are lucky, you get Phillip Rivers who has been very good, but has to have a good supporting cast.

 

Would it be prudent to trade 21, 22, 53 and next year’s 1st for a young Rivers?  And if the answer is yes, don’t forget you could also end up with RG3.

 

BTW, note that none of Brady, Rodgers and Brees were high first round picks.

Edited March 11, 2018 by OldTimer1960

[CuddyDark]

13 minutes ago, Manther said:

Disagree....IMO Luck, Eli and Newton had less question mark. Eli and Newton did have question marks though.  I just think Wentz had more question marks.

Thanks for the breakdown!

I don't think so. I think the only mark on Wentz was level of competition. Same with Big Ben. But as a player he was the cleanest QB since Luck, Eli and Newton.

8 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

People who dont want a frencheyes qb this year are sooo dumb!! 

People who think picking a QB high makes him a franchise QB are dumber!!!

Edited March 11, 2018 by CuddyDark

[Fetou]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Would it be prudent to trade 21, 22, 53 and next year’s 1st for a young Rivers?  And if the answer is yes, don’t forget you could also end up with RG3.

 

If you subject your eyes to the torture of watching the Buffalo Bills on a yearly basis, how in the hell could it not be yes?

Edited March 11, 2018 by Fetou

[PromoTheRobot]

Please note that the teams that succeed after a big trade up for a QB actually have good teams surrounding those QBs. Maybe that's why Philly didn't miss a beat when Wentz went down. So keep that in mind when your hands shake and sweat drops off your brow because you are ready to trade your entire draft for a QB. You still need 20-some other positions to be good too.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Please note that the teams that succeed after a big trade up for a QB actually have good teams surrounding those QBs. Maybe that's why Philly didn't miss a beat when Wentz went down. So keep that in mind when your hands shake and sweat drops off your brow because you are ready to trade your entire draft for a QB. You still need 20-some other positions to be good too.

 

Maybe 2020 is our year then 

[mannc]

33 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Eagles were a franchise QB away, they were loaded at nearly every position besides QB.

And they were fortunate enough to unload Sam Bradford to Minnesota, thereby recouping much of what they paid to move up for Wentz.

[nedboy7]

33 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

I don't think so. I think the only mark on Wentz was level of competition. Same with Big Ben. But as a player he was the cleanest QB since Luck, Eli and Newton.

People who think picking a QB high makes him a franchise QB are dumber!!!

 

that's my point. 

[OldTimer1960]

24 minutes ago, Fetou said:

 

If you subject your eyes to the torture of watching the Buffalo Bills on a yearly basis, how in the hell could it not be yes?

Point is over Rivers’ career how good have the Chargers been?  I’d say pretty good when they have occasionally put good talent around him and not so good when they haven’t.

 

Sure, Their highs have been a bit better than the Bills better seasons, but they hav not really ever been serious SB contenders.

[nedboy7]

35 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

NOBODY doesn’t want a franchise QB.  

 

BUT, you have to realize that just because you trade a TON to move up to take one of these guys doesn’t mean that you just locked in someone like Brady, Rodgers or Brees who can just carry a weak supporting cast.  IF you are lucky, you get Phillip Rivers who has been very good, but has to have a good supporting cast.

 

Would it be prudent to trade 21, 22, 53 and next year’s 1st for a young Rivers?  And if the answer is yes, don’t forget you could also end up with RG3.

 

BTW, note that none of Brady, Rodgers and Brees were high first round picks.

 

that was sarcasm.  I am not into spending evey pick for some rookie qb.  I thought TT was good enough to keep another year.  let's see what goes down now. 

[Fetou]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Point is over Rivers’ career how good have the Chargers been?  I’d say pretty good when they have occasionally put good talent around him and not so good when they haven’t.

 

Sure, Their highs have been a bit better than the Bills better seasons, but they hav not really ever been serious SB contenders.

That franchise is terribly run. I have always felt sorry that Rivers wasted his career with that half-rate organization.

 

And for the short period of time where they actually did have the talent, they were an electric team to watch.

 

It's a lot easier to put the talent around the QB than it is to find the QB. Opportunities to find the QB are very limited.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Fetou

[PromoTheRobot]

7 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Maybe 2020 is our year then 

Maybe not. I mean McDermott took this ragtag bunch to a wild card. I just don't want to totally mortgage the future. I can live with a Sammy Watkins deal: this year's first, next year's first and middle-round pick. That still leaves enough picks to take a step up. (Though I know I will hate the 2019 draft with no first.) We just have to resist the urge to pull a franchise-destroying Ditka move out of desperation. I'm confident McBeane don't roll like that.

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, Fetou said:

That franchise is terribly run. I have always felt sorry that Rivers wasted his career with that half-rate organization.

 

And for the short period of time where they actually did have the talent, they were an electric team to watch.

Yes, but only happened 3 of 14 year’s - rest were floating a game or 2 around .500.  Also, notably all 3 great seasons were early in Rivers’ career before they had to limit spending on other positions to pay him.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

Maybe not. I mean McDermott took this ragtag bunch to a wild card. I just don't want to totally mortgage the future. I can live with a Sammy Watkins deal: this year's first, next year's first and middle-round pick. That still leaves enough picks to take a step up. (Though I know I will hate the 2019 draft with no first.) We just have to resist the urge to pull a franchise-destroying Ditka move out of desperation. I'm confident McBeane don't roll like that.

 

If you’re not desperate for a qb, you’re not doing it right. There is no price too big to pay.

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

If you’re not desperate for a qb, you’re not doing it right. There is no price too big to pay.

I disagree on two fronts: yes, there are prices too big to pay, and no, desperation is the worst position to operate from.

[DallasMac]

44 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

NOBODY doesn’t want a franchise QB.  

 

BUT, you have to realize that just because you trade a TON to move up to take one of these guys doesn’t mean that you just locked in someone like Brady, Rodgers or Brees who can just carry a weak supporting cast.  IF you are lucky, you get Phillip Rivers who has been very good, but has to have a good supporting cast.

 

Would it be prudent to trade 21, 22, 53 and next year’s 1st for a young Rivers?  And if the answer is yes, don’t forget you could also end up with RG3.

 

BTW, note that none of Brady, Rodgers and Brees were high first round picks.

The next generation all were though.  Wentz, Goff, Luck, Ryan, Stafford, Mariota, Winston.  I get that it's risky but sometimes you just have to take the chance.

[Fetou]

4 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I disagree on two fronts: yes, there are prices too big to pay, and no, desperation is the worst position to operate from.

 

All just terminology. If there is a player that you think has a high probability of being a franchise guy, the price does become somewhat secondary. Because if you are right, you underpaid. That doesn't necessarily have to be a top five pick, but if that's the market perception, the cost can't be allowed to be an obstacle  when you have the means.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I disagree on two fronts: yes, there are prices too big to pay, and no, desperation is the worst position to operate from.

 

Question: 

 

is a franchise that hasn’t had a real qb in 20 years not the definition of desperate?

[mannc]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

Question: 

 

is a franchise that hasn’t had a real qb in 20 years not the definition of desperate?

The last 20 years has nothing to do with now.  Last year we made the playoffs with a mediocre QB who is now gone.  We will sign a veteran and draft a rookie.  There are multiple good options in both categories and we have the resources to get it done.  Hence, no need to panic. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

The last 20 years has nothing to do with now.  Last year we made the playoffs with a mediocre QB who is now gone.  We will sign a veteran and draft a rookie.  There are multiple good options in both categories and we have the resources to get it done.  Hence, no need to panic. 

You think. Let’s say that they stay put and Rosen Darnold Rudolph Allen and even Jackson are gone. Then what? What’s your alternative 

[RochesterRob]

23 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Point is over Rivers’ career how good have the Chargers been?  I’d say pretty good when they have occasionally put good talent around him and not so good when they haven’t.

 

Sure, Their highs have been a bit better than the Bills better seasons, but they hav not really ever been serious SB contenders.

  The Chargers while Rivers has been there have never been a team that I would say were likely to be conference champs w/o few fortunate happenings along the way.  

19 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I disagree on two fronts: yes, there are prices too big to pay, and no, desperation is the worst position to operate from.

  The guys who think too much is not enough to pay and are desperate that if they went to Seneca-Niagara or Del Lago they would be the ones rehearsing their speech to the wife as to why they can't make the next car and mortgage payment.  Then they go to their buddies' houses for the next two and half weeks until the wife cools off and borrows the money from her parents.

9 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

You think. Let’s say that they stay put and Rosen Darnold Rudolph Allen and even Jackson are gone. Then what? What’s your alternative 

  Rest comfortably knowing that 2019 is not already out the window because Beane did not act like a riverboat gambler with those picks.

[BringBackOrton]

I was pounding on the table to trade up and grab Wentzylvania that entire offseason.

 

Thank God we stuck with Shaq, Ragland and Adolphus!

[mannc]

20 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

You think. Let’s say that they stay put and Rosen Darnold Rudolph Allen and even Jackson are gone. Then what? What’s your alternative 

I did not say “stay put”.  I said, don’t panic and overpay to move up.  I’m convinced there will be opportunities to land someone good without giving up a king’s ransom.

[Boca BIlls]

40 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Maybe not. I mean McDermott took this ragtag bunch to a wild card. I just don't want to totally mortgage the future. I can live with a Sammy Watkins deal: this year's first, next year's first and middle-round pick. That still leaves enough picks to take a step up. (Though I know I will hate the 2019 draft with no first.) We just have to resist the urge to pull a franchise-destroying Ditka move out of desperation. I'm confident McBeane don't roll like that.

He traded for a RB... a franchise QB is worth everything.

[transient]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

People who dont want a frencheyes qb this year are sooo dumb!! 

 

I don’t consider myself to be one of those QB Francophile types, but I’d take one of them over a sloweyes QB. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Worked out pretty damn good for the Eagles. The Browns passing on Wentz before hindsight was dumb.

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2017/04/the_carson_wentz_trade_tracker.html

 

The Browns have been the Poster Child for not wanting to pull the trigger on a QB prospect high in the draft (waiting for Mr Flawless?)

I don't think anyone else has had so many chances, and wasted them.

 

30 minutes ago, mannc said:

I did not say “stay put”.  I said, don’t panic and overpay to move up.  I’m convinced there will be opportunities to land someone good without giving up a king’s ransom.

 

That's entirely possible.  But realize that historically, the odds overall are best with the very top 2 picks, and very few drafts seem to have 3 QB who work out drafted 1-2-3.  It's usually something like (1 and 2) or (1 or 2) then one of the guys who was the 5th - 7th QB drafted

Edited March 11, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Perry Turtle]

Whether you trade up or not is irrelevant.  What really matters is that the front office is good enough to identify a franchise QB in the draft.  Philadelphia's front office was good enough to recognize Wentz as a legit franchise QB.  Cleveland's front office wasn't.

 

If you believe that Beane's front office has the ability to identify a franchise QB in the draft, then you shouldn't worry about the Bills trading up. 

 

If you don't believe that Beane can't identify a franchise QB in the draft, then you hope he stays out and keeps the draft picks.  At the same time though, you should hope that Beane is replaced, because who wants a GM who can't fill the most important position on the team (see Whaley).