Interesting article on the last 17 years QB drafts

[Davealan74]

After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot?  I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

[Zebrastripes]

I strongly believe this class is the most like 2004 where there were multiple guys that panned out.  So yes I would still make a trade up to get 1 of the top guys.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Zebrastripes

[KDIGGZ]

I was a fan of Connor Cook. Is he a flame out yet? I feel like he just hasn't had his chance to shine 

[Davealan74]

I remember being upset when the jets got Bryce Petty. Now I just laugh at the jets

[Luka]

Tebow didn't flame out, he was forced out.

[hondo in seattle]

The unpredictability - and generally low success rate - of drafted NFL QBs is why I'm not opposed to the Nick Foles option.  We know that Foles can do well in the right system surrounded by the right cast.

 

We don't know anything about this current crop of college signal callers.  Even some of the guys the experts said were can't-miss in the past ended up missing.  

 

My other thought is that the sensible thing to do is keep drafting QBs until you find one - every year or every other year.  But mortgaging the farm to trade up on a speculative hope scares me.   

 

Imaging giving up two 1s and a 2, let's say, to move up and get a guy who doesn't pan out.   Draft history says that's what would probably happen.  

 

I'd rather use one of our first round picks this year to draft a guy.  If we miss, try again next year.  Instead of betting the farm on one guy by using three picks, I'd use one pick for one guy - but I'd do it every year until we got a hit.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot?  I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

 

Makes the point rather effectively that a class with 3 long-term starters drafted in the 1st round is a rare exception, doesn't he?

The far more common outcome is 0 or 1.

 

The author flags for success a number of QB who either did not become long term starters (RGIII, Vince Young, etc), or who took the "scenic route" to that status (eg Alex Smith)

[Davealan74]

7 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I was a fan of Connor Cook. Is he a flame out yet? I feel like he just hasn't had his chance to shine 

I don't really know much about him but I don't think he has a chance to prove himself yet.  I think a lot of these guys that turn out do to circumstances appose to skill and being in the right place at the right time.

[yungmack]

I noticed this was written BEFORE the 2017 season. That said, it is kind of astounding how many QBs were drafted and how very few of them panned out at all. As to genuine stars, boy, are they rare.

Edited March 11, 2018 by yungmack

[Dadonkadonk]

Shhh.  Most on here don't want to hear this kind of talk.  

[Doc]

31 minutes ago, yungmack said:

I noticed this was written BEFORE the 2017 season. That said, it is kind of astounding how many QBs were drafted and how very few of them panned out at all. As to genuine stars, boy, are they rare.

 

The 2017 season doesn't really change much.  Currently at best you have 1 QB who showed something (Watson) but who got hurt.  The rest didn't show much or enough to say anything one way or another.

[NoSaint]

All I hear is that we shouldn’t hire the OP to scout 

[Davealan74]

4 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

All I hear is that we shouldn’t hire the OP to scout 

Your not quite getting what I'm saying hear. If you look back in history a lot of these guys were suppose to be sure things. Great arms, athletic, good foot work, accurate, are a few of the words used by the media, scouts and analysis over the last 17 years and most of these guys haven't panned out. There is no real good way to find out which guy is going to breakout or bust if you look back the last 17 years. It's really is a crap shoot.

[NoSaint]

13 minutes ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

Your not quite getting what I'm saying hear. If you look back in history a lot of these guys were suppose to be sure things. Great arms, athletic, good foot work, accurate, are a few of the words used by the media, scouts and analysis over the last 17 years and most of these guys haven't panned out. There is no real good way to find out which guy is going to breakout or bust if you look back the last 17 years. It's really is a crap shoot.

 

I get it. And stand by my joke.

[Chuck Wagon]

Well according to your analysis, we just trade up to pick the first QB off the board and we are golden.

[Davealan74]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

I get it. And stand by my joke.

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by lxxenigmaxxl

[USABuffaloFan]

3 hours ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot?  I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

No you don't, odds are you lose. You wait and grab I guy at your picks or go get a proven guy. If your gonna gamble QB gamble money, it is replaceable. 

[Davealan74]

3 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

No you don't, odds are you lose. You wait and grab I guy at your picks or go get a proven guy. If your gonna gamble QB gamble money, it is replaceable. 

I agree.

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, USABuffaloFan said:

No you don't, odds are you lose. You wait and grab I guy at your picks or go get a proven guy. If your gonna gamble QB gamble money, it is replaceable. 

 

Why are we better off spending 15m on a qb and drafting two second tier guys instead of signing two vets and trading up for a cheap rookie qb?

 

at least the rookie stands a chance of being the guy. Keenum or McCarron? Meh.

[Davealan74]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Why are we better off spending 15m on a qb and drafting two second tier guys instead of signing two vets and trading up for a cheap rookie qb?

 

at least the rookie stands a chance of being the guy. Keenum or McCarron? Meh.

Because the odds are against you. When I get the time I'll go and see how many qb over the years that panned out when a team moved up to get them. I guessing it's a extremely short list. Could the impossible happen, yes it could but do you really want to waste all those picks if it doesn't. We are too high on the board to reach that far down.

Edited March 11, 2018 by lxxenigmaxxl

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, Zebrastripes said:

I strongly believe this class is the most like 2004 where there were multiple guys that panned out.  So yes I would still make a trade up to get 1 of the top guys.

The best of that group was arguably Roethlisberger who was the 3rd one picked at 11.

[USABuffaloFan]

3 hours ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot?  I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

Thanks for the article too, very interesting. Brings reality to picking QB's. If you suck, do your homework, you might have a shot at a starter.

3 hours ago, Luka said:

Tebow didn't flame out, he was forced out.

Yes, not sure if he stayed in league he still would be here though. He just was a terrible thrower. Awesome football player but this is the NFL. 

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

The unpredictability - and generally low success rate - of drafted NFL QBs is why I'm not opposed to the Nick Foles option.  We know that Foles can do well in the right system surrounded by the right cast.

 

We don't know anything about this current crop of college signal callers.  Even some of the guys the experts said were can't-miss in the past ended up missing.  

 

My other thought is that the sensible thing to do is keep drafting QBs until you find one - every year or every other year.  But mortgaging the farm to trade up on a speculative hope scares me.   

 

Imaging giving up two 1s and a 2, let's say, to move up and get a guy who doesn't pan out.   Draft history says that's what would probably happen.  

 

I'd rather use one of our first round picks this year to draft a guy.  If we miss, try again next year.  Instead of betting the farm on one guy by using three picks, I'd use one pick for one guy - but I'd do it every year until we got a hit.  

Thank you for using reason, like your take.

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Makes the point rather effectively that a class with 3 long-term starters drafted in the 1st round is a rare exception, doesn't he?

The far more common outcome is 0 or 1.

 

The author flags for success a number of QB who either did not become long term starters (RGIII, Vince Young, etc), or who took the "scenic route" to that status (eg Alex Smith)

Some of it matters were you end up. If RGIII landed were a QB is taken care of, who knows. Shannon was stupid keeping RGIII in the game. Worse move on a QB ever. Shame!

[The Wiz]

5 minutes ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

Because the odds are against you. When I get the time I'll go and see how many qb over the years that panned out when a team moved up to get them. I guessing it's a extremely short list. Could the impossible happen, yes it could but do you really want to waste all those picks if it doesn't. We are too high on the board to reach that far down.

The odds are against you no matter if you trade up, down or stay put for a QB.  It's that simple.  We traded up for JP, down for EJ and stayed put for Trent.  All failed.

 

Spending money on free agents is the same situation.  Overpay for Mario, Clay, Owens, etc. and you screw your cap up for years.

 

In my opinion, it's easier to recover from blowing your load(picks) in one draft than locking in a guy for multiple years that will leave you with a player you can't cut if it doesn't work out.

[K-9]

The best thing about the history of QBs selected in previous drafts is that none of it is relevant. Every draft, every prospect, every situation he is drafted into is its own unique set of dynamics. 

 

The only commonality that matters is the level of conviction a particular team has towards a particular prospect and whether that conviction is enough to warrant the investment in the pick. 

[USABuffaloFan]

27 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Well according to your analysis, we just trade up to pick the first QB off the board and we are golden.

Your not getting Cleveland's pick

[NoSaint]

16 minutes ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

Because the odds are against you. When I get the time I'll go and see how many qb over the years that panned out when a team moved up to get them. I guessing it's a extremely short list. Could the impossible happen, yes it could but do you really want to waste all those picks if it doesn't. We are too high on the board to reach that far down.

 

Weve seen the list a dozen times this offseason.

 

find the list of guys like Keenum, McCarron etc... that have become viable answers vs the ones that disappeared. It’s even longer odds.

[USABuffaloFan]

20 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Why are we better off spending 15m on a qb and drafting two second tier guys instead of signing two vets and trading up for a cheap rookie qb?

 

at least the rookie stands a chance of being the guy. Keenum or McCarron? Meh.

That is not what I said. I would gamble $30mil/yr and go for Cousins. I would gamble all 4 top picks if Indy would give me Luck. You win with Pedigree. Maybe you can pry, Rivers away with next years 1st and a 2nd rounder, what about Brees, Wilson, Rodgers. What is the Price, we have the pics. I would not gamble 4 picks on any of the QB's in this draft. I would take Jackson with 22nd or Rudolph in 2nd. Maybe there is a gem in 3rd round or later. Gamble picks for proven commodities, that is how you might have a shot. Teams value QB picks too much. Team's are made in the draft but by picking lineman late 1st round and later. Once in a while you get a JJ Watt.

[Davealan74]

7 minutes ago, K-9 said:

The best thing about the history of QBs selected in previous drafts is that none of it is relevant. Every draft, every prospect, every situation he is drafted into is its own unique set of dynamics. 

 

The only commonality that matters is the level of conviction a particular team has towards a particular prospect and whether that conviction is enough to warrant the investment in the pick. 

Good post, that makes sense.

[USABuffaloFan]

39 minutes ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

Because the odds are against you. When I get the time I'll go and see how many qb over the years that panned out when a team moved up to get them. I guessing it's a extremely short list. Could the impossible happen, yes it could but do you really want to waste all those picks if it doesn't. We are too high on the board to reach that far down.

Well spoken!

33 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

The best of that group was arguably Roethlisberger who was the 3rd one picked at 11.

I was praying he would drop, yelling for Buffalo to move up. I was also screaming for Buffalo not to draft Losman, not a LA surf QB. Losman had skills but somehow they ruined him. I remember a Houston come from behind where he hit 2 - 80 yard passes all in the air right on the mark. That is talent wasted.

Edited March 11, 2018 by USABuffaloFan

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

That is not what I said. I would gamble $30mil/yr and go for Cousins. I would gamble all 4 top picks if Indy would give me Luck. You win with Pedigree. Maybe you can pry, Rivers away with next years 1st and a 2nd rounder, what about Brees, Wilson, Rodgers. What is the Price, we have the pics. I would not gamble 4 picks on any of the QB's in this draft. I would take Jackson with 22nd or Rudolph in 2nd. Maybe there is a gem in 3rd round or later. Gamble picks for proven commodities, that is how you might have a shot. Teams value QB picks too much. Team's are made in the draft but by picking lineman late 1st round and later. Once in a while you get a JJ Watt.

 

I’ve been pro-luck if our trainers pass him and he’s available... but there aren’t any “proven” QBs that we can count on getting. If something opens up that puts brees, wilson or Rodgers in play - great. But I don’t think anyone is expecting that to happen 

[USABuffaloFan]

17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

The odds are against you no matter if you trade up, down or stay put for a QB.  It's that simple.  We traded up for JP, down for EJ and stayed put for Trent.  All failed.

 

Spending money on free agents is the same situation.  Overpay for Mario, Clay, Owens, etc. and you screw your cap up for years.

 

In my opinion, it's easier to recover from blowing your load(picks) in one draft than locking in a guy for multiple years that will leave you with a player you can't cut if it doesn't work out.

We had no problem getting rid of Mario but he wasn't a flop, Rex was. He played great for 3 years with 10 plus sacks. You are completely wrong about money and picks. What hurts is when you do BOTH wrong, you WIN by doing both right. You can come back from bad contracts by drafting well. If you draft poorly you end up wasting money buying players.

15 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Weve seen the list a dozen times this offseason.

 

find the list of guys like Keenum, McCarron etc... that have become viable answers vs the ones that disappeared. It’s even longer odds.

Foles, Alex Smith, Fitz, Favre, Brady. Outside of Brady these guys played for someone else and teams seen what they did picked them up and won with them to the playoffs. Always better watching for good QB's that have played before. Even Orton was a play or 2 away from getting Buffalo to the playoffs. Pick the right guys and magic can happen.

[Direhard Fan]

Use the draft this year to build in all the other areas we need help and they will be with us for a long time.  Buy a free agent QB and know what we are getting.  We have the cap space.   Taking a shot on an unknown when we have so many needs is nuts.  Draft one QB a year and hope he is a Brady.  Plus so many think Petermann has a great deal to offer.  

[The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

We had no problem getting rid of Mario but he wasn't a flop, Rex was. He played great for 3 years with 10 plus sacks. You are completely wrong about money and picks. What hurts is when you do BOTH wrong, you WIN by doing both right. You can come back from bad contracts by drafting well. If you draft poorly you end up wasting money buying players.

I agree.

 

but when you waste money buying players because you drafted poorly, you still get to draft next year and hope to do better.  Meanwhile, you're stuck with that wasted money for 3+ years.  Then it just continues if the FO doesn't learn how to draft.  I think that was a problem of the past though and hopefully has corrected itself with McBeane.

[USABuffaloFan]

10 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

I’ve been pro-luck if our trainers pass him and he’s available... but there aren’t any “proven” QBs that we can count on getting. If something opens up that puts brees, wilson or Rodgers in play - great. But I don’t think anyone is expecting that to happen 

You make it happen if you think that QB gets you deep in the playoffs. If you keep the players you have, add a few free agents. Give Indy 2 1st rounders one this year one next and both 2nds. Are we a playoff team with 1 st, 2 - 3rd pics. Hard to say this year but next when we get $80 mil in cap we definitely could be. We have a line if we get a Center with our 22nd pick, gave 21st to Indy. Groy becomes RG, Glenn RT, Price or Daniels Center. 3rd picks get DT and middle linebacker. Go get speed WR in free agency. Tyrod gives $10 mil back, Luck is 4 years 84mil left, he adds 12mil to what we were spending still leaves money to get guys. Question is would Indy do this for 2-1st and 2-2nds. I think yes, they are 2-3 years away and have 3rd pick, Luck is 29. If it was me I would make the call, lay the trade down and let Indy think about it.

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I agree.

 

but when you waste money buying players because you drafted poorly, you still get to draft next year and hope to do better.  Meanwhile, you're stuck with that wasted money for 3+ years.  Then it just continues if the FO doesn't learn how to draft.  I think that was a problem of the past though and hopefully has corrected itself with McBeane.

Your not stuck if you let player go before Free Agency, you eat that money that year. If you were foolish to guarantee all the money that is your fault. Your choice if you want to spread out the signing bonus or go cash to cap. either way, draft picks are cheap now. Just forces you to go that route.

[Chuck Wagon]

56 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Your not getting Cleveland's pick

 

 

Cleveland isn't picking a QB #1

[gobills1212]

5 hours ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot?  I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

Good read, thanks!

[Domdab99]

5 hours ago, Luka said:

Tebow didn't flame out, he was forced out.

 

lol oh you're one of those.

[What a Tuel]

18 hours ago, lxxenigmaxxl said:

After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot?  I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

 

Absolutely because if you don't play the game, you don't get the QB. The odds of 1st and 2nd rounders being a success are much better than the plethora of 3rd-6th rounders and the few that worked out.

 

Much better odds to take one of the top guys.

Edited March 12, 2018 by What a Tuel

[Davealan74]

1 hour ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Absolutely because if you don't play the game, you don't get the QB. The odds of 1st and 2nd rounders being a success are much better than the plethora of 3rd-6th rounders and the few that worked out.

 

Much better odds to take one of the top guys.

What a Tuel 

Edited March 12, 2018 by lxxenigmaxxl

[SoTier]

16 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

Weve seen the list a dozen times this offseason.

 

find the list of guys like Keenum, McCarron etc... that have become viable answers vs the ones that disappeared. It’s even longer odds.

 

How, exactly, is McCarron a "viable answer" to anything?  He was a fifth round draft pick who hasn't started/played in a dozen games in his career, so he's more like the legendary franchise saviors like Rob Johnson and Matt Flynn.