Rams will not tag Watkins

[Gugny]

49 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Did we?  We got a 2nd round pick and a cornerback that played 59% of the team's defensive snaps, and looks unlikely to be retained.

 

The Rams got a WR1 that played 75% of the team's offensive snaps  and lead them in yards/catch, yards/target, and receiving TDs...he also appears to be likely to be retained.

 

We may not have lost the trade, but I don't see how we won it.  Now, maybe if the 2nd round pick we got from LA will turn into a great player, and then we can say that we won the trade, but until then, the jury's out.

 

We got rid of a lazy, arrogant, crappy teammate who doesn't play hard.  That, alone, makes us the winner, IMO.

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Sammy and Julio have identical snap percentages. 74 and change.

 

AB is at 80 percent.

 

I don't see much difference or any evidence of anything different happening in LA as far as rotations.

 

Hopkins looks like the exception with 93 percent.

 

Evans 83

DT 78

 

I mean there is a difference but Evans is one of the best blocking wideouts so that 10 percent could be a part of that? Also the Rams were one of the better offenses how many total plays did they run and how many did say the Texans run? Seems like splitting hairs 

 

The point isn't so much that Sammy is off the field more than those other WR1s, but rather that the way McVay sets up his offense is vastly different.  He's going to rotate his WR2/3/4 guys much more to keep them fresh and take advantage of team's corners.  One thing that I find very interesting is looking at the NextGenStats.

 

Teams clearly try to take away Watkins and take their chances with the others; Watkins was given an average of 4.8 yards of cushion per snap, which is 7th-lowest in the NFL.  The WRs that receive less cushion than Watkins?  Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, and Marvin Jones.  By contrast Cooper Kupp was given more cushion (in terms of average yards per snap) than any other WR in the league at 7.4 yards.  Woods was also near the bottom with an average of 6.5 yards of cushion.  It's clear that teams are picking their poison regarding the Rams.

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

We got rid of a lazy, arrogant, crappy teammate who doesn't play hard.  That, alone, makes us the winner, IMO.

 

Definitely doesn't play hard...at all...

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000849067/Sammy-Watkins-extends-across-goal-line-for-second-touchdown

[Thurman#1]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

A 2nd round pick is an unknown--even good teams can miss on 2nd round picks.  If that's the tipping point, well, I'm afraid that I don't place value on the pick as much as I do on known commodities.

 

As for Gaines' missed time, the bold comment above is not entirely accurate

 

He was injured against Atlanta in week 4 and missed 26 snaps

He missed the following week's game against Cincinnati entirely

He came back to face TB in the team's next game, got injured again, and missed 31 snaps

He missed the following 3 games with the knee injury you mentioned 

He returned to play 100% of the team's defensive snaps in the next 3 games, before getting injured against Miami and missing 35 snaps

 

His availability for this team was poor.

  

 

 

No, a 2nd round pick is NOT an unknown. This particular one, for instance, is precisely #56.

 

What's unknown is how well or poorly the picks will be used. But that's beside the point. We know the value of the pick. That pick isn't worth any less if they bollix it and pick a bust any more than your $50,000 is worth nothing if somebody cons you out of it or if you buy a lemon of a Porsche with it. That's your problem. The money's still worth $50K. In exactly the same way, that pick will have been worth 340 points on the draft value chart. That was it's value, that's what it was worth in the trade.

 

 Gaines this last year plus teh 2018 #56 pick is absolutely better than Sammy this last year.

 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I really don't know why he hasn't gotten the targets consistently, especially after the other-worldly performance he put up in the 2nd half of 2015 when he actually got WR1 targets.

 

I have a theory about this. He isn't physical and doesn't win contested catches so the only time his QB throws him the ball is when he's open. He's just a glorified burner. He is nothing like OBJ, Brown, Jones, etc. because he won't catch the ball if he's covered. So he has high efficiency stats because he pretty much always catches the ball when it comes his way, and he's usually downfield when that happens. But his total production will never be that high because his role is limited. Remember in the Chiefs game where he went off in the 1st half. Andy Reid made one small defensive adjustment at halftime and he was shut down the rest of the game. That would never happen for one of the great receivers.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The point isn't so much that Sammy is off the field more than those other WR1s, but rather that the way McVay sets up his offense is vastly different.  He's going to rotate his WR2/3/4 guys much more to keep them fresh and take advantage of team's corners.  One thing that I find very interesting is looking at the NextGenStats.

 

Teams clearly try to take away Watkins and take their chances with the others; Watkins was given an average of 4.8 yards of cushion per snap, which is 7th-lowest in the NFL.  The WRs that receive less cushion than Watkins?  Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, and Marvin Jones.  By contrast Cooper Kupp was given more cushion (in terms of average yards per snap) than any other WR in the league at 7.4 yards.  Woods was also near the bottom with an average of 6.5 yards of cushion.  It's clear that teams are picking their poison regarding the Rams.

 

Definitely doesn't play hard...at all...

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000849067/Sammy-Watkins-extends-across-goal-line-for-second-touchdown

 

Great highlight, Bandit.  The words came out of his own mouth that he didn't play hard all the time.  I'm not saying he NEVER played hard.  But I think you knew that.

 

The guy is a jerk who is only half as good as he thinks he is.

 

And it's a shame, because if he could get out of the way of his own ego, he COULD be every bit as good as he thinks he is.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

"To all the people that have a problem with me being injured you guys go out there and play this sport it’s a 100% injury rate,” Watkins wrote. “I’m not first or last person that’s gone be injured difference from me and you guys y’all mad and I’m not get a life and goto work stop worrying about my job because I’m good on this end and forever will be losers most of you just wish to be in this position so continue working y’all little jobs for the rest of y’all lives since everyone once a response here go one have a blessed day.”

 

Watkins later posted, then deleted, a clarification on Twitter: “Message wasn’t for fans for whomever have a problem with athletes being injured.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/oct/28/bills-watkins-to-fans-continue-working-yall-little-jobs-for-the-rest-of-yall-lives

 

When you cut out that part it looks far worse than it was. Not a great look. Awkward, looked small, should never have been posted. But also not a big deal.

 

 

to your eyes?

 

NONE of it looks good. a selfish player that thinks he's above all, you know, those working the "little jobs".

 

!@#$ him.

[thebandit27]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

  

 

 

No, a 2nd round pick is NOT an unknown. This particular one, for instance, is precisely #56.

 

What's unknown is how well or poorly the picks will be used. But that's beside the point. We know the value of the pick. That pick isn't worth any less if they bollix it and pick a bust any more than your $50,000 is worth nothing if somebody cons you out of it or if you buy a lemon of a Porsche with it. That's your problem. The money's still worth $50K. In exactly the same way, that pick will have been worth 340 points on the draft value chart. That was it's value, that's what it was worth in the trade.

 

 Gaines this last year plus teh 2018 #56 pick is absolutely better than Sammy this last year.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, exactly, what that pick turns into is an unknown, and it's entirely germane to the point, vis-a-vis known quantity versus unknown quantity.

[Thurman#1]

12 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

We got rid of a lazy, arrogant, crappy teammate who doesn't play hard.  That, alone, makes us the winner, IMO.

 

 

Nonsense. Sammy gave everything he had. He had major injury problems throughout his time here and his effectiveness was hurt by that, but you can't find one teammate, coach or person from OBD who will say anything like what you're saying here. It's all fans saying this stuff, the people who don't know.

[BuffaloRebound]

Very telling that 2 teams now have either traded him or let him hit free agency.  Only takes 1 team to over-pay him, but can't see anyone giving him a long term deal at #1 WR money.  Can see him getting a Alshon Jeffery 1 year prove it deal.  

[YoloinOhio]

46 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

he will end up on the jets or browns on a short deal i'd bet just to give the rookie a potential big weapon.  alshon type deal at 1 or 2 years 10 mil per

I doubt his agent would advise him to sign with either team given the QB scenario you mention, unless he has no other offers 

[I_want_2_BILL_Lieve]

When I think about Sammy I keep coming back to this phrase: The MYTH of Sammy Watkins. That's just it. You THINK with all this talent you're getting a receiver who has performed at a high level. Think 1,000+ yards, 90+ receptions and 10-15 TDS. But what is the reality. 39 receptions for 593 yards last year. 

 

With Buffalo it was, if he only had a better QB. Or if only the OC would use him right. Or even, if only he wasn't injured. He was traded to a high octane offense in the Rams and lo and behold - he had a better QB, he wasn't injured. What did he do. Not much. 

 

Someone will overpay for the myth. They'll be disappointed too. 

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

I think whether we have an interest in Sammy or not is related to the Tyrod decision. Clearly all the signs are that Tyrod is out. But if he is not, he and Sammy were developing something. In the early going it seemed EJ Manuel was better for Sammy than Tyrod - but towards the end Tyrod was finding Sammy. So if the Bills are resigned to one more year of Tyrod, it would not surprise me if Sammy is also signed.

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I have a theory about this. He isn't physical and doesn't win contested catches so the only time his QB throws him the ball is when he's open. He's just a glorified burner. He is nothing like OBJ, Brown, Jones, etc. because he won't catch the ball if he's covered. So he has high efficiency stats because he pretty much always catches the ball when it comes his way, and he's usually downfield when that happens. But his total production will never be that high because his role is limited. Remember in the Chiefs game where he went off in the 1st half. Andy Reid made one small defensive adjustment at halftime and he was shut down the rest of the game. That would never happen for one of the great receivers.

 

Sorry, but that argument doesn't hold water when you look at the routes he ran and the catches he made last year.

 

Just a sample:

 

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

The point isn't so much that Sammy is off the field more than those other WR1s, but rather that the way McVay sets up his offense is vastly different.  He's going to rotate his WR2/3/4 guys much more to keep them fresh and take advantage of team's corners.  One thing that I find very interesting is looking at the NextGenStats.

 

Teams clearly try to take away Watkins and take their chances with the others; Watkins was given an average of 4.8 yards of cushion per snap, which is 7th-lowest in the NFL.  The WRs that receive less cushion than Watkins?  Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, and Marvin Jones.  By contrast Cooper Kupp was given more cushion (in terms of average yards per snap) than any other WR in the league at 7.4 yards.  Woods was also near the bottom with an average of 6.5 yards of cushion.  It's clear that teams are picking their poison regarding the Rams.

What does that have to do with snap percentage though? You keep using it but his percentage is very close to all other number 1s. It's identical to Julio's. Watkins played less snaps his first three weeks of the season which no doubt would bring his actual percentage up once he was "full speed"

 

I know you like Sammy I just don't see a WR rotation being a factor in his limited production. The percentages don't tell that story. 

 

Space at the LOS? Surely that could be from teams deciding that the best way to defend Sammy is to jam him right?

 

 

 

 

[What a Tuel]

6 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

to your eyes?

 

NONE of it looks good. a selfish player that thinks he's above all, you know, those working the "little jobs".

 

!@#$ him.

 

This makes you sound small. No offense.

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I think whether we have an interest in Sammy or not is related to the Tyrod decision. Clearly all the signs are that Tyrod is out. But if he is not, he and Sammy were developing something. In the early going it seemed EJ Manuel was better for Sammy than Tyrod - but towards the end Tyrod was finding Sammy. So if the Bills are resigned to one more year of Tyrod, it would not surprise me if Sammy is also signed.

Sammy's best statistical year to this point was the first year he and Tyrod played together. And he did it in 13 games, to boot.

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

And millions of dollars in future cap space. We were never going to pay Sammy what he wants. So our choice was take a one-year rental in a year where we were not going to contend for a Super Bowl, or collect a 2nd rounder and a valuable CB. When those were the available options it's a no-brainer that we won this trade. If you want to argue that the Rams didn't lose the trade, there's still an argument to be made there. But if Sammy signs elsewhere I think that will do it.

The issue isn't who won the trade as it is was it the right thing to do for you. If he resigns with the Rams and becomes a star then good for him. That still isn't to say that it was the wrong thing for us to do. Our needs are our needs and another team's needs are their needs. 

 

As you noted the Bills gained cap space and they got a second round pick in the deal. If that second round pick is used in a deal for a qb this year then I would consider it a phenomenal deal for us. Or if that acquired second round pick becomes a mainstay defensive player I would still declare the transaction as a success. 

[aristocrat]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I doubt his agent would advise him to sign with either team given the QB scenario you mention, unless he has no other offers 

 

well then he will probably need to take less money to get on a vet qb team. but i dont see too many teams with vet qbs that need a big money wideout. if he thinks thats what he is. His only options will be teams with rookie qbs imo.  

[Thurman#1]

14 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

to your eyes?

 

NONE of it looks good. a selfish player that thinks he's above all, you know, those working the "little jobs".

 

!@#$ him.

 

 

 

No, you're misreading this, and at this point, willfully. 

 

He wasn't aiming this at everybody. He aimed it very specifically at the people on twitter attacking him for having injury problems. And yeah, to my eyes it was still a bad look for him. But if posting stupidly or rudely on social media were something only stupid rude arrogant people did, the internet would be a much much nicer place.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

What does that have to do with snap percentage though? You keep using it but his percentage is very close to all other number 1s. It's identical to Julio's. Watkins played less snaps his first three weeks of the season which no doubt would bring his actual percentage up once he was "full speed"

 

I know you like Sammy I just don't see a WR rotation being a factor in his limited production. The percentages don't tell that story. 

 

Space at the LOS? Surely that could be from teams deciding that the best way to defend Sammy is to jam him right?

 

 

 

 

 

I mentioned snap percentage to highlight the fact that the played WR1 snaps for LA.

 

When I talk about the rotation that McVay uses, here's the discussion point: he loaded his team up with speed players and dressed 6-7 WRs each week (the Rams were the only team in the NFL with 6 WRs that played in 20% of their snaps--and they did it without any of their WRs suffering a major injury).  He would play his No. 3-6 WRs more than any other coach by my count, which kept them fresher than the DBs that were playing 70+ snaps per game, and gave them a decided advantage.

 

When your No. 3 target has an advantage over the guy covering him, it's far more likely you're going to go that way with the ball.