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Armchair GM: Hits and Embarrassing Misses over the Years


MrEpsYtown
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I thought it might be a fun exercise for us look at some of our hits and misses over the years. We all have opinions about all of the quarterbacks in this draft, but I'm sure we have all been wrong at times over the years.  Pretty much every year I fall in love with a quarterback, sometimes those guys have turned out to be pretty good and other times they’ve been awful. My earliest draft memories probably start at the 93 draft as an 11 year old. I’ve been watching and obsessing over the draft ever since. 

 

93: Drew Bledsoe was my second football love after Jim Kelly. I thought he was going to be awesome and went on to have a pretty good career. I was ecstatic when we acquired Bledsoe, even though he was thirty at that point. 

 

94: Heath Shuler: I thought he was going to be the man. So athletic and watching his games at Tennessee I thought he would be the real deal. 

 

95: I was a big PSU fan because my uncle went there and I really liked Kerry Collins. I did not think McNair was going to be good as a small school guy. Kerry Collins was ok but I was definitely wrong on McNair. We drafted Todd Collins in the second.  

 

96: This might be the worst QB drafts of all time. First guy off the board was Tony Banks in the second. I don’t recall liking any QBs in this draft. I remember really wanted Terry Glenn and being disappointed with Moulds. 

 

97: Loved Jake Plummer but I thought Jim Druckenmiller was going to be the better pro. 

 

98: Peyton Manning was obvious, but I thought Leaf was going to be good too. I feel like that was a fair debate at the time. 

 

99: Cade McNown was my favorite. He was a lefty and really athletic and fun. I thought Couch would be good too. I wasn't sold on McNabb or Akili Smith. I remember really wanting Andy Katzenmoyer, like a lot and being disappointed when we passed on him for Antoine Winfield. 

 

2000: Nobody special came out of this draft…....but I loved Giovanni Carmazzi. Steve Mariucci ruined him. 

 

2001: I really wanted Drew Brees. I was basically obsessed with him at Purdue. 

 

2002: I badly wanted Joey Harrington and he went one pick before ours. I really think Mariucci ruined him too and he should have  had a better career. I thought we might grab Patrick Ramsey in the  2nd. I thought he’d be good too. 

 

2003: Kyle Boller was my guy in this draft. Huge arm. 

 

2004: I felt the top guys were out of reach, so I was actually okay with JP Losman. I did not like the trade up though. I think we could have waited until the second. Still the wrong pick though. 

 

2005: That trade up cost us a shot at Aaron Rodgers, who I thought was really good. 

 

2006: I liked Vince Young in this draft. 

 

2007: I loved Brady Quinn, but really wanted Patrick Willis. I didn't love the Marshawn selection. I did not think there was any way Quinn would bust. 

 

2008: I loved Brian Brohm and felt really good about Colt Brennan. 

 

2009: I did not like anyone, but certainly did not want Aaron Maybin.

 

2010: A lot of rumors had us loving Tim Tebow so I convinced myself to like him. I really wanted Jimmy Clausen. I could not believe we passed on him in the second. 

 

2011: This one I am not proud of. I thought Cam was out of reach and I loved Blaine Gabbert, Absolutely loved him. He was like the prototype for me. I was upset when we passed on him, but I understood the Dareus pick. After the first day I convinced myself we were going to draft Colin Kaepernick, and I was ecstatic, then we drafted Aaron Williams and I was super pissed. 

 

2012: I spent the entire offseason dreaming of trade ups for Luck that obviously didn't happen. After him I wanted Brock Osweiler late. 

 

2013: I wanted Matt Barkley. Hated the EJ pick. Still surprised Barkley never amounted to anything and shocked he went in the 4th. 

 

2014: I was hoping Teddy Bridgewater would somehow slip to us in the 2nd. 

 

2015: I liked Bryce Petty and I thought Brett Hundley would be good as well. 

 

2016: I wanted Christian Hackenberg. I thought he had the pedigree as a prospect and was just really young for the draft. 

 

2017: I was intrigued by Mahomes, but was okay with the trade down. 

 

So for me it's a lot of hit or miss. I really loved prospects like Joey Harrington and Blaine Gabbert and was banging the table for Brady Quinn, but also had a couple of hits like Drew Brees. But I have been pretty wrong a lot. Just putting it all out there as fun. 

 

This year I am all in on Josh Rosen. 

 

It’s all a crapshoot. Who are some of your hits and embarrassing misses over the years? 
 

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I wanted Barkley too. It's all moot for me, though, because I don't watch college ball. All I do is look at mock drafts and read the hype and watch occasional highlight videos.

 

So I basically know nothing about who we should draft ever. I just have to hope for the best.

 

I do understand draft pick values and when the Bills are getting good value on players and trades, so that is what I look for.

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I like this thread....it feels cathartic, which we could all use this time of year. I can't say I can year by year the way the OP did, but I can draw out some good and bad memories off the top of my head:

 

I have to say, I didn't really pay close attention to the Draft until about 2004.....and immediately when Evans was selected first, I thought it was a wasted pick and when the Bills traded up for Losman, I nearly threw my drink at the t.v. I hated it then, and the feeling never left.

 

I hated Whitner, LOVED Ngata....thought Brady Quinn was an entitled little snot who would wilt in the light of the NFL. But, I really like Cutler, ugh....hated Kaep, strong dislike for Tannehill coming out, wasn't a big Flacco supporter so obviously wrong in some respects with him. 

 

I did not like the Lynch pick, but loved his tenacious running style, I really liked Martavis Bryant coming out of college and when I watched the Combine, he stood out as a smooth runner with speed and good hands. I didn't like Benjamin, thought he was "too big" to be a good NFL WR (time will tell), loved Kamara and Fournette (duh)....

 

Thought Big Ben would have a limited career, because I thought he held the ball too long and was too often looking for the big play - whammo, that one stung!

 

I didn't like Rivers' throwing trajectory, thought his arm was too sideways and he would turn into a sub par QB that would have a good game or two to keep his career alive but slink into obscurity....yikes!! Woof, that was bad. 

 

I loved Eli and thought that was just a truly easy one....I did NOT like RGIII and I really liked Cousins coming out of Mich. State; in fact had a conversation with a friend of mine who is a Redskins fan and told him, in two years, Cousins will be your guy RGIII is that skinny tie trend, it doesn't last and eventually everyone knows it looks stupid.

 

Hated Maybin pick, really liked the Aaron Williams and Cordy Glenn picks. Was clueless about Darby, didn't even see that coming.

 

I liked Andy Dalton as a low-tier solid to good QB....loved Julio Jones - but then again who didn't? - and really didn't like Alshon Jeffrey (my bad)

 

I said Jadaveon Clowney was overrated and I wouldn't have Drafted him #1 overall and in fact not in top 10, believed Khalil Mack should have been the #1 pick, loved Mike Evans and hated Ebron....I didn't like the Sammy Watkins pick, not because of him but the price to get him, and thought OBJ was just as good (again, wrong...he's so much better)

 

Believed Matt Ryan was a stud, and that Jordy Nelson was overrated (damn!)....cursed at the t.v. when Hardy's name was announced for the Bills, they were the only team to even think he should play, let alone 2nd round....uggghhh. Also on the side of being wrong, I thought Vernon Gholston was going to be an animal for that Jets Defense....wrong! However, in the same Draft I really, really liked Ray Rice.

 

There's so many more that just go racing through my mind, but that's a lot of ups and downs I can think of for now....thanks for this OP!

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3 minutes ago, rodneykm said:

Loved the Spiller pick. 

 

Desperately wanted us to draft Watson.

 

 

I'm a Clemson fan btw. 

 

I hated the spiller pick... When that pick popped up i said DEZ BRYANT and got really excited.  I just thought he was going to be really good.  If not him - then I thought defense - pass rushers for sure.

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I remember being pissed at picking McKelvin. The other one was Gilmore... I remember being so pissed, thinking that corner was the absolute LOWEST priority at that point in time. We had, on the roster at that point, Jairus Byrd, Drayton Florence, Aaron Williams,  McKelvin, George Wilson, Da'Norris Searcy..... I was like Why TF are we taking a corner?

Edited by CLTbills
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Loved Trent Edwards and thought he was a steal.  Then the first half of 2008, I thought we finally found our franchise QB.

 

Hated Losman and knew he wasn't going to be anything.

 

Really wanted .Aaron Donald.

 

Really wanted Phillip Rivers.

 

Thought Patrick Petersen was all hype.

 

Really wanted Eric Decker.

 

Thought Spiller was going to be a Super star.

 

I was upset when the Bills placed Kyle Williams ahead of John McCargo on the depth chart.  I thought Stroud/McCargo would be a dominate DT duo.  Chris Brown was answering fan questions on BBMB and specifically asked him what the hell are the Bills thinking of starting Williams over McCargo. (I bolded this one because it's a doozy)

 

Never really liked Poz.  He was okay but not a difference maker.  I was really hoping to get David Harris instead.

 

Thought Brian Brohm was going to get his mojo back.

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

I LOVED Colt McCoy coming out of Texas. I thought he had the swag as well as some some solid physical traits. I think he could have had success if he didn't go to Cleveland.

 

There's a running theme here.....hmmmm, what could it be??? :D

Edited by BigBuff423
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Being a Notre Dame fan I thought Jimmy Clausen was different. I was banging the table for him. I was right there along with Mel Kiper when the Bills passed him over twice. Oh how wrong was I. I owned it. :oops:

Edited by H2o
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So in my mind I kind of separate my draft viewing into 3 periods:

 

2003-2008 - casual fan, watched no college football had no idea who most of the people in the draft were until about 3 weeks before they got drafted by which time I might now the 10-20 sure fire first rounders and a few other QBs by name. From that period loved the Lee Evans pick and the Losman trade up and then pretty much every year after would scratch my head at why the Bills did what they did in the 1st.

 

2009-2013 - watched a bit of college ball didn't really pay much attention though but would love reading mock drafts from January onwards. In this period I really wanted them to take Josh Freeman in 2009 and still think they should have (he couldn't have been worse than Maybin).  In 2010 I really wanted Trent Williams in the 1st but he was gone long before we picked.  In 2011 I liked the Dareus pick but remember being intrigued by Jake Locker and in 2012 they picked my guy I was all over Gilmore. Equally in 2013 I thought they HAD to go Quarterback and I would have gone EJ out of that class.  

 

2014-present - started trying to be an amateur evaluator... so from here on I will give you some hits and misses beyond the Bills:

 

2014

#1 player on my board: Jadaveon Clowney

My guy for the Bills: (actual pick trade up pick Sammy Watkins at #4) - I was a Mike Evans guy, I absolutely loved him and believe he was the single biggest reason Manziel went in the 1st.  

My biggest hits: As well as Evans I loved Ryan Shazier, he was a top 5 player on my board, and Aaron Donald.  Later rounds I really liked Chris Borland the linebacker out of Wisconsin who had a really good rookie year for the 9ers then retired over head injuries.

My biggest misses: Not sure he is quite a "miss" but I had Blake Bortles as my #1 QB. On the flip side I really didn't like Anthony Barr, in fact I think I called him "Maybinish" whoops. I actually liked Richardson the big guard we took in the 5th from Baylor. He sucked.  

 

2015

#1 player on my board: Leonard Williams

My guy for the Bills: (actual pick no 1st round  selection) - In the 2nd I liked Ali Marpet the OL who went to Tampa Bay some and also Maxx Williams the tight end who went to Baltimore.  

My biggest hits: I liked both Mariota and Winston a lot they were my 2nd and 3rd ranked players respectively, are they "hits" yet? Hard to say.  I though both Preston Smith and Landon Collins who went in the 2nd to the Redskins and the Giants were 1st round talents and I think they have proven that in the league.

My biggest misses: I remember thinking when the Browns took Danny Shelton and Cam Erving "wow, sensible, non flashy, long term cornerstones."  But I shoulda known... Browns gonna Browns. 

 

2016

#1 player on my board: Jalen Ramsey - love, love, loved him.  

My guy for the Bills: (actual pick Shaq Lawson at #19) - Not going to lie I really liked Shaq.  Had a top 10 grade on him and other than Myles Jack who was falling because of a medical he was the highest player left on my board when the Bills picked.    

My biggest hits: I thought the top 5 in that draft were all good picks and they have been, though Goff obviously had struggles year 1. Looking further down I was the only person I knew who had a 1st round grade on Deion Jones; thought Dak was a late 2nd rounder and had a mid round grade on eventual UDFA Robby Anderson.... who when he isn't nutting in the eye of a police officer's wife is a darn good football player. Oh and I was right Paxton Lynch sucks.  

My biggest misses: I could never quite ween myself off Connor Cook and had a 2nd round grade on him and I was one of the few who didn't think Eli Apple was a reach for the Giants at #10 - after a steady rookie year he was a disaster in 2017. Sheldon Rankins has not been the force for the Saints I expected yet either. I thought he was Aaron Donald v2.0. 

 

2017 - VERY early to judge

#1 player on my board: Myles Garrett

My guy for the Bills: (actual pick trade back and Tre'Davious White at #27 ) - I would have stayed at #10, sprinted to podium and selected Deshaun Watson.  Once the Bills traded back though I said straight away - "I hope Tre White is still there".  

My biggest hits: Lattimore was the #2 player on my board, obviously Watson looked a stud before the injury, and I thought Budda Baker should have gone in the 1st round. Lower down I liked the Milano pick and hated the Peterman pick for the Bills and I thought Pat Elflein who ended up starting for the Vikings at center went a round later than he should have.  

My biggest misses: I liked the Zay Jones pick a lot too, though not necessarily the trade up and, full disclosure, I thought TJ Watt was a late 2nd round player who went in the 1st because of his surname. WRONG.  

 

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My favorite prospects I've watched and wanted the Bills to draft:

Leonard Floyd: Georgia played him all over the field and at the time I thought Rex would love to have him

Robert Nkemdiche:  His film was amazingly fun to watch.  A complete man amongst boys in College.  Appears the whole "doesnt love football and is a weirdo" thing turned out to be accurate.

Hau'oli Kikaha: Just ran all over the field with reckless abandon.  Felt like another guy Rex could have used.

Jake Matthews: Bills needed o-line help that year and his initial kick was a thing of beauty

Deshaun Watson: Jury is still out and I honestly wanted to dislike him as a prospect but much like Mason Rudolph this year he had the intangibles all the very good quarterbacks had before him.  Also was blown away by how good his back shoulder throw was for a prospect.

Bryce Petty: Should have known better given the Baylor offense but he just seemed to have it all coming out. 

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins: Watching his film I was sure he was the next Gronk.  

Cordarrelle Patterson: What can I say.  I got sucked in.

 

Players I Hated and Didn't Watch the Bills to Touch:

Odell Beckham:  I will never forget Joe B. saying before that draft that if the Bills couldn't get Sammy they would draft OBJ.  I said out loud in my kitchen "No God, not him"  I thought he was a one route player who couldnt block.

Christian Hackenberg: Much like Josh Allen this year, I didnt get the hype.  Kid looked like a tire fire on film.

Deshone Kizer: I am a Notre Dame guy and Deshone reminded me of EJ Manuel with turnover issues. 

Teddy Bridgewater: I still dont think Teddy is a good quarterback.  I think Minnesota hid him most of the time. 

Mike Glennon: That neck.  Looked like a statue on tape and that neck.

 

 

Edited by thenorthremembers
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3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I thought it might be a fun exercise for us look at some of our hits and misses over the years. We all have opinions about all of the quarterbacks in this draft, but I'm sure we have all been wrong at times over the years.  Pretty much every year I fall in love with a quarterback, sometimes those guys have turned out to be pretty good and other times they’ve been awful. My earliest draft memories probably start at the 93 draft as an 11 year old. I’ve been watching and obsessing over the draft ever since. 

 

93: Drew Bledsoe was my second football love after Jim Kelly. I thought he was going to be awesome and went on to have a pretty good career. I was ecstatic when we acquired Bledsoe, even though he was thirty at that point. 

 

94: Heath Shuler: I thought he was going to be the man. So athletic and watching his games at Tennessee I thought he would be the real deal. 

 

95: I was a big PSU fan because my uncle went there and I really liked Kerry Collins. I did not think McNair was going to be good as a small school guy. Kerry Collins was ok but I was definitely wrong on McNair. We drafted Todd Collins in the second.  

 

96: This might be the worst QB drafts of all time. First guy off the board was Tony Banks in the second. I don’t recall liking any QBs in this draft. I remember really wanted Terry Glenn and being disappointed with Moulds. 

 

97: Loved Jake Plummer but I thought Jim Druckenmiller was going to be the better pro. 

 

98: Peyton Manning was obvious, but I thought Leaf was going to be good too. I feel like that was a fair debate at the time. 

 

99: Cade McNown was my favorite. He was a lefty and really athletic and fun. I thought Couch would be good too. I wasn't sold on McNabb or Akili Smith. I remember really wanting Andy Katzenmoyer, like a lot and being disappointed when we passed on him for Antoine Winfield. 

 

2000: Nobody special came out of this draft…....but I loved Giovanni Carmazzi. Steve Mariucci ruined him. 

 

2001: I really wanted Drew Brees. I was basically obsessed with him at Purdue. 

 

2002: I badly wanted Joey Harrington and he went one pick before ours. I really think Mariucci ruined him too and he should have  had a better career. I thought we might grab Patrick Ramsey in the  2nd. I thought he’d be good too. 

 

2003: Kyle Boller was my guy in this draft. Huge arm. 

 

2004: I felt the top guys were out of reach, so I was actually okay with JP Losman. I did not like the trade up though. I think we could have waited until the second. Still the wrong pick though. 

 

2005: That trade up cost us a shot at Aaron Rodgers, who I thought was really good. 

 

2006: I liked Vince Young in this draft. 

 

2007: I loved Brady Quinn, but really wanted Patrick Willis. I didn't love the Marshawn selection. I did not think there was any way Quinn would bust. 

 

2008: I loved Brian Brohm and felt really good about Colt Brennan. 

 

2009: I did not like anyone, but certainly did not want Aaron Maybin.

 

2010: A lot of rumors had us loving Tim Tebow so I convinced myself to like him. I really wanted Jimmy Clausen. I could not believe we passed on him in the second. 

 

2011: This one I am not proud of. I thought Cam was out of reach and I loved Blaine Gabbert, Absolutely loved him. He was like the prototype for me. I was upset when we passed on him, but I understood the Dareus pick. After the first day I convinced myself we were going to draft Colin Kaepernick, and I was ecstatic, then we drafted Aaron Williams and I was super pissed. 

 

2012: I spent the entire offseason dreaming of trade ups for Luck that obviously didn't happen. After him I wanted Brock Osweiler late. 

 

2013: I wanted Matt Barkley. Hated the EJ pick. Still surprised Barkley never amounted to anything and shocked he went in the 4th. 

 

2014: I was hoping Teddy Bridgewater would somehow slip to us in the 2nd. 

 

2015: I liked Bryce Petty and I thought Brett Hundley would be good as well. 

 

2016: I wanted Christian Hackenberg. I thought he had the pedigree as a prospect and was just really young for the draft. 

 

2017: I was intrigued by Mahomes, but was okay with the trade down. 

 

So for me it's a lot of hit or miss. I really loved prospects like Joey Harrington and Blaine Gabbert and was banging the table for Brady Quinn, but also had a couple of hits like Drew Brees. But I have been pretty wrong a lot. Just putting it all out there as fun. 

 

This year I am all in on Josh Rosen. 

 

It’s all a crapshoot. Who are some of your hits and embarrassing misses over the years? 
 

 

....GREAT work bud and thanks for sharing..:thumbsup:....boy there are some distant yet painful memories on that list.......perfect illustration that the draft has never been, is not and never will be an exact science....BTW, is Quinn STILL in the Green Room??................

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy
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