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Some perspective on Taylor's season so far with a look ahead

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transplantbillsfan All Pro

transplantbillsfan

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Let's be honest, the Bills have faced a muderer's row of defenses to start the season. Cincy, Denver, Carolina and Atlanta are all great to Elite defenses. All are in the top 10 and Cincy, Denver, and Carolina are in the top 4. They are also very good passing defenses sitting at #2, #6, #7 and #12.

And before anyone just says "well they look great because Taylor's numbers skewed the raw data so they look better than they are..."

Let me give you a list of the common QBs those 4 teams have played that most would say are better or head & shoulders better than Taylor:

Joe Flacco
Deshaun Watson
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Phillip Rivers
Dak Prescott
Derek Carr
Tom Brady
Matthew Stafford

There were 11 of those common games. I looked it up and did the math and here's what those QBs averaged per game against those 4 defenses:

22.6/35.3 (64%), 227 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1.8 passing TDs, 0.5 INTs, 93.3 Passer Rating, 2.7 sacks, 18.5 yards lost

4 wins
7 losses

And I think we can all agree that Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are Elite QBs separate from the pack of pretty much every other QB in the NFL, right? Well, if you eliminate the games those guys played, those other 6 guys who most would consider better than Taylor looked like this on a per game basis:

19.1/31.7 (60.3%), 187.4 yards, 5.9 YPA, 1.4 passing TDs, 0.3 INTs, 87.7 Passer Rating, 2.4 sacks, 16.3 yards lost,

2 wins
5 losses


Now here's Taylor's stat line against those same teams:

17.3/27 (64.1%), 172 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1 passing TD. 0.25 INTs, 90.5 Passer Rating, 4 sacks, 19.7 yards lost

2 wins
2 losses


As hypercritical as people are with Taylor's play to start the season, is it really all that bad considering the defenses we've played?

I wouldn't call it great, but he's looked really good against some great defenses, at times. Other great QBs have looked really bad against the same defenses, at times.

Moving forward, the best defense we play are the 'Phins at #11, then the Chargers at #18. After that it's defenses that are currently 24th or worse.

 

Plus, 6 home games vs 5 away games.

Taylor passing at home: 211 YPG, 65% completions, 8.0 YPA, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, team is 11-6

Taylor passing away: 199.5 YPG, 60.4% completions, 6.7 YPA, 18 TDs, 5 INTs, team is 7-10

 

 

I don't think anyone can reasonably expect to start passing for 300+ or probably even 250+ yards per game, but I think we should expect to see a significantly better Taylor than we saw in the first 5 weeks.

 

And if we do and this defense keeps playing the way it has been, this is a playoff team :thumbsup:

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BringBackOrton All Pro

BringBackOrton

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Let's be honest, the Bills have faced a muderer's row of defenses to start the season. Cincy, Denver, Carolina and Atlanta are all great to Elite defenses. All are in the top 10 and Cincy, Denver, and Carolina are in the top 4. They are also very good passing defenses sitting at #2, #6, #7 and #12.

 

And before anyone just says "well they look great because Taylor's numbers skewed the raw data so they look better than they are..."

 

Let me give you a list of the common QBs those 4 teams have played that most would say are better or head & shoulders better than Taylor:

 

Joe Flacco

Deshaun Watson

Aaron Rodgers

Drew Brees

Phillip Rivers

Dak Prescott

Derek Carr

Tom Brady

Matthew Stafford

 

There were 11 of those common games. I looked it up and did the math and here's what those QBs averaged per game against those 4 defenses:

 

22.6/35.3 (64%), 227 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1.8 passing TDs, 0.5 INTs, 93.3 Passer Rating, 2.7 sacks, 18.5 yards lost

 

4 wins

7 losses

 

And I think we can all agree that Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are Elite QBs separate from the pack of pretty much every other QB in the NFL, right? Well, if you eliminate the games those guys played, those other 6 guys who most would consider better than Taylor looked like this on a per game basis:

 

19.1/31.7 (60.3%), 187.4 yards, 5.9 YPA, 1.4 passing TDs, 0.3 INTs, 87.7 Passer Rating, 2.4 sacks, 16.3 yards lost,

 

2 wins

5 losses

 

 

Now here's Taylor's stat line against those same teams:

 

17.3/27 (64.1%), 172 yards, 6.4 YPA, 1 passing TD. 0.25 INTs, 90.5 Passer Rating, 4 sacks, 19.7 yards lost

 

2 wins

2 losses

 

 

As hypercritical as people are with Taylor's play to start the season, is it really all that bad considering the defenses we've played?

 

I wouldn't call it great, but he's looked really good against some great defenses, at times. Other great QBs have looked really bad against the same defenses, at times.

 

Moving forward, the best defense we play are the 'Phins at #11, then the Chargers at #18. After that it's defenses that are currently 24th or worse.

 

Plus, 6 home games vs 5 away games.

 

Taylor passing at home: 211 YPG, 65% completions, 8.0 YPA, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, team is 11-6

 

Taylor passing away: 199.5 YPG, 60.4% completions, 6.7 YPA, 18 TDs, 5 INTs, team is 7-10

 

 

I don't think anyone can reasonably expect to start passing for 300+ or probably even 250+ yards per game, but I think we should expect to see a significantly better Taylor than we saw in the first 5 weeks.

 

And if we do and this defense keeps playing the way it has been, this is a playoff team :thumbsup:

I'm not sure Taylor plays that much better against bad defenses.

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transplantbillsfan All Pro

transplantbillsfan

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Nice stat work. Well see how it plays out. Im surprised how close he matches up with some of those names tho. The majority of those QBs have much better WRs but, aome have worse OLines.

 

I think it's an indication we really need to pump the brakes on saying Taylor sucks, as some on this board have been proclaiming.

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BringBackOrton All Pro

BringBackOrton

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I don't think anyone can reasonably expect to start passing for 300+ or probably even 250+ yards per game, but I think we should expect to see a significantly better Taylor than we saw in the first 5 weeks.

 

And if we do and this defense keeps playing the way it has been, this is a playoff team :thumbsup:

 

 

And he had better games against better defenses throughout the year too. What's your point?

Edited by jmc12290
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Gugny Hall of Famer

Gugny

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Nice stats work. Long season ahead of us and no reason to give up on Tyrod early. It starts with a really bad pass defense this Sunday.

 

It started 2.5 years ago. To give up on him now would be far from early.

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ganesh All Pro

ganesh

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I have nothing against Taylor, I just don't think his style of play will ever win us a playoff game.

 

I hope we trade a LT and Taylor for a 1st rd pick to Denver. I still see him putting up the same numbers with much better weapons.

The OP gave some real good evidence. Taylor is an above average QB. Let us fix the WR crew, OL and get the Running game going. WE are ranked #29 in the Run game. Detractors will continue to point that the Run game is bad because Taylor is bad. The only grudge I have against Taylor is that he is simply unable to bring the team a win on a 4th quarter comeback. They have all fallen short. However, Taylor is NOT our problem.

Edited by ganesh
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harv shitz RFA

harv shitz

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He is no better than average. He won't throw a guy out of his break, won't put it up and let a receiver "go get it," checks down too early, misses open guys too often, and can't or won't throw down the middle.

 

I have nothing against the guy, but his shortcomings are going to ruin another great defensive season,where we could at least make the playoffs.

 

I have zero confidence that he can take team down the field and win a game.

 

Too bad they didn't look harder in the off season. In hindsight, that #10 pick on Watson would have been a great one.

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grb RFA

grb

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I am bracing myself for more inconsistent play from Tyrod and a generally poor passing offense.

 

I agree Taylor's inconsistency is baffling.

 

After all, he's throwing to a hopeless head case (who we all hope will get better), multiple punt returners and rejects scrapped off the scrap heap. He's dealing with a running attack which has ranged from poor to nonexistent. He's behind an offensive line which regularly implodes even while Taylor waits for receivers who can't get separation. He was in the top quarter of the league in +20yd pass plays using just a running back and tight end - and then lost the tight end. So you can see why Taylor's inconsistency is so damn puzzling......

 

How in the world has he managed to play so well so often?

Given all the wreckage around him, isn't that the real inconsistency?

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fridge Veteran

fridge

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I agree Taylor's inconsistency is baffling.

 

After all, he's throwing to a hopeless head case (who we all hope will get better), multiple punt returners and rejects scrapped off the scrap heap. He's dealing with a running attack which has ranged from poor to nonexistent. He's behind an offensive line which regularly implodes even while Taylor waits for receivers who can't get separation. He was in the top quarter of the league in +20yd pass plays using just a running back and tight end - and then lost the tight end. So you can see why Taylor's inconsistency is so damn puzzling......

 

How in the world has he managed to play so well so often?

Given all the wreckage around him, isn't that the real inconsistency?

Just list the excuses in numerical format so it's easier to follow. No need to get Shakespeare on us.

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EmotionallyUnstable All Pro

EmotionallyUnstable

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Excellent work OP

 

Thanks for taking the time to add substance to your arguement. I couldn't agree more. TT is s piece of the problem, not the only problem. I enjoy watching him play, especially since he is one of two viable playmakers on the offense.

 

The idiots who argue with isolated statistics aren't worth your time.

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Game Manager Practice Squad

Game Manager

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Excellent work OP

Thanks for taking the time to add substance to your arguement. I couldn't agree more. TT is s piece of the problem, not the only problem. I enjoy watching him play, especially since he is one of two viable playmakers on the offense.

The idiots who argue with isolated statistics aren't worth your time.

If we played the Bengals in a playoff game this year who would you bet on ?

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NoSaint Hall of Famer

NoSaint

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Dude, I don't think I've even started 9 threads in 9 months since I've been here. But nice try 0:)

 

Was a joke, you know with your multiple bet threads on tyrods stats, this thread in tyrods stats, the thread a couple weeks ago on tyrods stats when the teams trailing, the thread on cam (as compared to Tyrod)

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Game Manager Practice Squad

Game Manager

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Sounds like you have no idea what the thread and statistics support.

FWIW, I would trust TT in the playoffs. Because frankly, if they do make the post season, he would've been the one that got them there.

31st of 32. Time for a breakthrough

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2017&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

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