Compensatory pick ?

[Estro]

I started the thread in March that the Bills were making a big mistake losing out on 3rd and 4th round comp. picks for the departures of Gilmore and Woods by signing too many C-level FA's. It started a firestorm of reactions from those that agreed to those that thought comp. picks are totally overrated.

 

I was happy to see Matthew Fairburn & Joe Buscaglia both bring it up this week. Fairburn actually directly asked Beane about it in his last presser, and Beane was well aware of it.

 

I actually had a ? about how we can recoup that 3rd round pick though. I understand we need to cut 3 of the qualifying FA additions, the most likely being Ryan Davis, Andre Holmes and Vlad Ducasse. I see Micah Hyde, Steven Hauschka, Jordan Poyer & Patrick Dimarco as near locks, in that order.

 

My ? is when do they need to be cut, to not count as FA additions? Is it before week 1, or is it before week 10? For some reason I thought they can play a certain amount of games before qualifying as an addition? Can someone please let me/us know.

Edited August 8, 2017 by Estro

[Kirby Jackson]

Week 10, but this assumes that the other guys that were signed away from the Bills remain on rosters too. It's fluid

[KDIGGZ]

it won't happen but it's a nice thought

[Kirby Jackson]

it won't happen but it's a nice thought

I don't know. If I told you that you could have Streater, street FA DE, PS 4th interior OL (Mudge) and a 3rd round pick or Davis, Holmes and Ducasse for the last 6 weeks of the year what would you pick?

 

I think that the Bills would deal those 3 for a 3rd round pick yesterday. The problem will be if it goes beyond those 3. That's when they may decide to retain them.

[KDIGGZ]

I don't know. If I told you that you could have Streater, street FA DE, PS 4th interior OL (Mudge) and a 3rd round pick or Davis, Holmes and Ducasse for the last 6 weeks of the year what would you pick?

 

I think that the Bills would deal those 3 for a 3rd round pick yesterday. The problem will be if it goes beyond those 3. That's when they may decide to retain them.

they love Ducasse and Holmes is still a starter according to the depth chart. they are going to field the best team they can and they think those 2 will see significant playing time

[Kirby Jackson]

they love Ducasse and Holmes is still a starter according to the depth chart. they are going to field the best team they can and they think those 2 will see significant playing time

Ducasse is still their 5th interior OL, and Holmes could be as low as the 5th WR by the end of the week. They have 10 weeks of the regular season as well. It's absolutely on the table.

[eMoulds]

I don't know the exact formula off-hand, but there is a playing time component (non special teams based snaps). There is a chance that Ducasse may not count if the o-line stays healthy. There is also a chance that Justin Hunter may count as a loss if he plays enough snaps for the Steelers.

[Estro]

Week 10, but this assumes that the other guys that were signed away from the Bills remain on rosters too. It's fluid

So if it is week 10, this gives me hope Beane will find a way to recoup the 3rd rounder. If it looks like we are out of the running for a playoff push after week 9 (say 4-5) it will be a lot easier for Beane to make the wise decision & acquire the 3rd rd. comp. pick by cutting a few backups.

Edited August 8, 2017 by Estro

[Kirby Jackson]

I don't know the exact formula off-hand, but there is a playing time component (non special teams based snaps). There is a chance that Ducasse may not count if the o-line stays healthy. There is also a chance that Justin Hunter may count as a loss if he plays enough snaps for the Steelers.

That's interesting and Hunter sounds like he will play quite a bit.

So if it is week 10, as I though it my be too, this gives me hope Beane will find a way to recoup the 3rd rounder. If it looks like we are out of the running for a playoff push after week 9 (say 4-5) it will be a lot easier for Beane to make the wise decision & acquire the 3rd rd. comp. pick by cutting a few backups.

Even if we are in the mix (assuming relative health) will anyone be upset if Holmes and Ducasse are replaced by Mudge and Streater?

[billieve420]

it won't happen but it's a nice thought

 

If the Bills are not in contention come week 10 then the option is definitely on the table no point in holding onto to these guys if the playoffs are a long shot.

[eMoulds]

Another thing to keep in mind is that most of these projections are based on the website 'Over The Cap's' cutoff for qualification of 961 which is subject to change (both in terms of the actual cutoff number and players moving up and down the list due to snap count adjustments). Players for the Bills within 100 spots of their cutoff.

 

In: Ducasse (872), Davis (899), Johnson (1040)

Out: Blanton (1042), Hunter (1057)

 

I can imagine a scenario where Ducasse slips far enough down to no longer qualify and Hunter is one of the players that replaces him, which would shift the Bills from 5/7 to 6/6.

[Kirby Jackson]

Another thing to keep in mind is that most of these projections are based on the website 'Over The Cap's' cutoff for qualification of 961 which is subject to change (both in terms of the actual cutoff number and players moving up and down the list due to snap count adjustments). Players for the Bills within 100 spots of their cutoff.

 

In: Ducasse (872), Davis (899), Johnson (1040)

Out: Blanton (1042), Hunter (1057)

 

I can imagine a scenario where Ducasse slips far enough down to no longer qualify and Hunter is one of the players that replaces him, which would shift the Bills from 5/7 to 6/6.

Johnson can move up too. He's been working in the slot.

[Mark Vader]

That's interesting and Hunter sounds like he will play quite a bit.

Even if we are in the mix (assuming relative health) will anyone be upset if Holmes and Ducasse are replaced by Mudge and Streater?

I'm rooting for Holmes to make the team and be an effective WR for us. I'm not against Streater or any of the other WR's making a case for themselves either. I know Holmes' camp has been underwhelming, but it sounds like he has rebounded. Let's see how he does during the preseason games.

 

As for Ducasse, I'm not that thrilled with him. He is a veteran player, and probably a good back-up, but if Jordan Mudge can show that he should be on the roster, then go for it. Having younger players on the O-Line is a good thing for us.

[PromoTheRobot]

I don't know the exact formula off-hand, but there is a playing time component (non special teams based snaps). There is a chance that Ducasse may not count if the o-line stays healthy. There is also a chance that Justin Hunter may count as a loss if he plays enough snaps for the Steelers.

 

The formula is Pats = picks, Bills = no picks.

[Mark Vader]

 

The formula is Pats = picks, Bills = no picks.

 

So true

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I believe you can also cut them and bring them back after week 1 on a new deal. You eat the dead money (split over 2 years), but davis and ducasse are negligible dead money anyway.

[QCity]

The formula is Pats = picks, Bills = no picks.

Pats front office = head of the class, Bills front office = "cue Benny Hill music"

 

Ducasse is still their 5th interior OL, and Holmes could be as low as the 5th WR by the end of the week. They have 10 weeks of the regular season as well. It's absolutely on the table.

You're absolutely correct that it's still on the table, maybe the Benny Hill music finally stops.

[SoCal Deek]

I've never been able to keep up with all the ins and outs of the Cap, Free Agency rules, etc. and frankly I stopped trying to along time ago. Experience has taught me that NOBODY knows how any of these guys are going to play, how long they're going to last, or when they'll be suspended or even convicted.

 

Now I just watch the games and leave the Front Office mess to the guys who are paid big bucks to mess it up!

[thebandit27]

That's interesting and Hunter sounds like he will play quite a bit.

Even if we are in the mix (assuming relative health) will anyone be upset if Holmes and Ducasse are replaced by Mudge and Streater?

 

I would also be in favor of pursuing a wink-nod agreement to release and re-sign Ryan Davis after week 1 if it meant gaining the 3rd round comp pick.

 

As for Holmes and Ducasse, well, I didn't want either in the first place, so please, by all means, bring on Streater and Mudge/Ola/etc

[JMF2006]

Lets hope they field the best possible 53 and let the chips(comp draft picks) fall where they may.

 

Playing a strategy like that might work if your bottoming out like Cleveland.

[YoloinOhio]

 

I would also be in favor of pursuing a wink-nod agreement to release and re-sign Ryan Davis after week 1 if it meant gaining the 3rd round comp pick.

 

As for Holmes and Ducasse, well, I didn't want either in the first place, so please, by all means, bring on Streater and Mudge/Ola/etc

regarding Ducasse, I read that the recently signed Barton has looked pretty good

[thebandit27]

Lets hope they field the best possible 53 and let the chips(comp draft picks) fall where they may.

 

Playing a strategy like that might work if your bottoming out like Cleveland.

 

I agree that keeping the best players is what's important, but my point is simply that I doubt keeping Andre Holmes vs. Rod Streater will be the difference between 8-8 and 10-6 for this team, so why not make the more prudent move in terms of draft pick capitol if you can?

[Estro]

 

I agree that keeping the best players is what's important, but my point is simply that I doubt keeping Andre Holmes vs. Rod Streater will be the difference between 8-8 and 10-6 for this team, so why not make the more prudent move in terms of draft pick capitol if you can?

Precisely.

 

Couple that with McDermott, Beane and even Pegula all claiming you build through the draft. You can't say that & then forgo valuable & more importantly free mid round draft picks in favor of singing C-level FA's when you have a team predicted to win 7 games. At some point this team needs to get smart and backup their words with intelligent roster building.

Edited August 9, 2017 by Estro

[wilcoam]

The mistake mgmt made wasn't necessarily singing fringe depth players like Holmes, Ducasse, and Davis, it was that they signed them b4 June 1st or whatever the deadline was, or didn't make an arrangement with their agents to be signed after x date so they would not count as a negative towards the comp count

 

If we lose, what should be easy lower 3rd and 4th round picks, it makes that much harder to trade up in 2018 for the players mgmt really wants, which now that you can trade the picks, is likely their best value, not so much actually drafting any players but to be used to move up

 

Sons eno one really knows all the cap rules, other than what is listed on the overthecap website, I am not convinced releasing these players b4 week 10 changes the formula, where we are presently have singed 7 and lost 5, meaning there would have to a swing of 3 players just to get one comp pick

 

jc

[kota]

Picks are nice but unfortunately people feel that a GM is failing if he doesn't get those picks. People want to blame the Bills playoff drought on it when in reality its been lack of a solid coach and QB.

[thebandit27]

Picks are nice but unfortunately people feel that a GM is failing if he doesn't get those picks. People want to blame the Bills playoff drought on it when in reality its been lack of a solid coach and QB.

 

I have never heard a single person say that.

 

 

The mistake mgmt made wasn't necessarily singing fringe depth players like Holmes, Ducasse, and Davis, it was that they signed them b4 June 1st or whatever the deadline was, or didn't make an arrangement with their agents to be signed after x date so they would not count as a negative towards the comp count

 

 

^Also a relevant point.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I agree that keeping the best players is what's important, but my point is simply that I doubt keeping Andre Holmes vs. Rod Streater will be the difference between 8-8 and 10-6 for this team, so why not make the more prudent move in terms of draft pick capitol if you can?

If the Bills were offered a 3rd and Rod Streater for Andre Holmes it'd be a no-brainer. It's not quite that simple but isn't far from that either.

[26CornerBlitz]

Beane was on WGR the other day and he responded to a question about compensatory picks by saying he wouldn't be doing his job if it weren't part of his consideration with respect to the final roster. He went on to say that he won't construct a roster he thinks has less talent just to get more comp picks.

[BillnutinHouston]

I liked Beane's answer to the question earlier this week, because as I recalled it mirrored my thinking. As I recall, it was basically, yes I'm aware of the comp pick formulas, but we balance that awareness with making sure we're putting the best team on the field.

 

I didn't get the impression Beane considers preserving comp picks as a driver of decision-making, which is precisely where I am.

[26CornerBlitz]

@RobQuinn619

Bills fans turned this comment into releasing 3 players they signed 5 months ago and getting a 3rd round pick. amazing

 

@SalSports

Replying to @RobQuinn619

I used to think it was completely crazy-talk. But I don't anymore after being around Beane and listening to him. Still think doubtful though

 

@RobQuinn619

Replying to @SalSports

I just can't see it. There's literally no DE depth, WR questions, and he said "not throwing a worse team out there"

 

@SalSports

Again, I don't think it will happen. But I think it's wrong to completely discount it after watching practice every day and hearing him.

 

[eball]

You know what's better than a compensatory pick? Signing a FA who actually makes your roster better, now.

[26CornerBlitz]

You know what's better than a compensatory pick? Signing a FA who actually makes your roster better, now.

 

Not for the Tankers Brigade.

[Mark Vader]

You know what's better than a compensatory pick? Signing a FA who actually makes your roster better, now.

 

Not for the Tankers Brigade.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Not for the Tankers Brigade.

I guess for me it's not about tanking as much as it is asset collection. If I have the choice of a 3rd and Streater or Holmes I'm taking the 3rd and Streater 8 days a week. It's just a better move. Preston Brown was a 3rd as was John Miller. You can get 2 contributing players for the price of 1 (that may not even be an upgrade).

[eball]

I guess for me it's not about tanking as much as it is asset collection. If I have the choice of a 3rd and Streater or Holmes I'm taking the 3rd and Streater 8 days a week. It's just a better move. Preston Brown was a 3rd as was John Miller. You can get 2 contributing players for the price of 1 (that may not even be an upgrade).

 

I guess it depends upon just how crucial they believe Holmes' ST skills are. If you believe you have another gunner on the roster then you let Holmes go and grab the pick. Doesn't really change my point, though.

[BarleyNY]

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

 

Here's a good link to OverTheCap's comp pick projections. They're always very close or spot on. Bills don't seem in the running for a 2018 comp pick.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I guess it depends upon just how crucial they believe Holmes' ST skills are. If you believe you have another gunner on the roster then you let Holmes go and grab the pick. Doesn't really change my point, though.

I guess we just see it differently. I'd trade the best gunner in the league for a 3rd at any time.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

 

Here's a good link to OverTheCap's comp pick projections. They're always very close or spot on. Bills don't seem in the running for a 2018 comp pick.

I believe that it is Holmes, Ducasse and Davis but it could end up less or more based on snap counts of Blanton and Hunter as well as Ducasse.

[Jamie Muellers Ghost]

I think this is going to be almost a given now with what happened. Don't we also have until week 10 on these players that are involved in the compensatory formula?

 

Based on Camp and play so far though I think we can pencil in Ducasse as a cut.

 

I know it's three players for an additional third what does a 4th player get us again is it a sixth ?

Edited August 11, 2017 by Jamie Muellers Ghost

[BringBackOrton]

Cut Ducasse, Davis and Holmes today.

 

Let's go McBean

 

Not for the Tankers Brigade.

RIP in peace.

[QCity]

Start packing your bags Andre, Vlad, and Ryan. If Justin Hunter winds up qualifying this season (it's possible), we may even get an extra 4th!

 

If Beane pulls this off, I may have to consider adjusting my "dead buffalo" avatar into something more positive. This is an exciting day.