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PFF: The Unstoppable Run Schemes of the Buffalo Bills


Big C

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An except:

 

 

 

 

The run game was damn good. Doesn't mean the pass game or defense was any good.

The sad thing is even with the passing game being average, if we had any defense whatsoever, we win against the Seahawks, the Dolphins x2, Jets on 9/15. But nope we watched again and again that defense become the #1 team at giving up big plays over and over again. It was sad

You were drunk when you posted this, right?

Actually Roman's run game concepts are by far in the last 5 years the most difficult for defenses to deal with. From the 49ers to here with us, his run game concepts have been elite.

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The sad thing is even with the passing game being average, if we had any defense whatsoever, we win against the Seahawks, the Dolphins x2, Jets on 9/15. But nope we watched again and again that defense become the #1 team at giving up big plays over and over again. It was sad

Actually Roman's run game concepts are by far in the last 5 years the most difficult for defenses to deal with. From the 49ers to here with us, his run game concepts have been elite.

The defense was the main problem in 2016 and it kept the Bills out of the playoffs.

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I was about to start a new thread linking this very same article but big C beat me to it.

 

While most fans worry about the passing game, I don't. I think we pretty much know what it'll look like this year (and it won't look like Drew Brees throwing for 5,000 yards).

 

What I worry about instead is the run game. It was so effective last year - most yards, most yards per play before contact, most yards per play - that it's hard to imagine it being so productive again.

 

I hope Rico is studying what worked last year for us, besides bringing in his own stuff.

 

Supposedly he was running with a hurt foot.

 

But I agree, JW did not look impressive in '16.

especially when he kept fumbling in mop-up duty

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Top 10 in offensive touchdowns.

 

I agree we need a better passing game, but not to the extent Bills fans think.

 

The defense(thanks to awful coaching) was the biggest reason this team has been stuck in mediocrity the past two years.

Agreed. We were 10th in point per game which is more than many of the playoff teams in 2016. Our problems cannot be solved just by THROWING THE GODDAMN BALL MORE as a few of you seem to think. We need a sound, zone defense to succeed IMO.

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...so then why does he end up as Ravens' TE Coach and Assistant HC?......

Likely includes "other Duties "

I have a lot of respect for Roman. And Kromer actually.

I think Greg with A. Lynn as HC would have done okay in Buffalo.

Not a knock on the new staff by any means though!

Agreed. We were 10th in point per game which is more than many of the playoff teams in 2016. Our problems cannot be solved just by THROWING THE GODDAMN BALL MORE as a few of you seem to think. We need a sound, zone defense to succeed IMO.

execution of scheme.

This is why I feel the Bills will be improved on both sides of the ball this season.

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The sad thing is even with the passing game being average, if we had any defense whatsoever, we win against the Seahawks, the Dolphins x2, Jets on 9/15. But nope we watched again and again that defense become the #1 team at giving up big plays over and over again. It was sad

Actually Roman's run game concepts are by far in the last 5 years the most difficult for defenses to deal with. From the 49ers to here with us, his run game concepts have been elite.

This is true

 

However his passing concepts were not.....and this was talked about on the niner''s board when we actually hired him.

 

Run game - He is great

Passing game - below average

"... How a team manages to accomplish these things (running or passing) is completely and totally irrelevant." ...

 

while i might agree with the gist of this, it is not totally irrelevant. if you have a team, much like the Bills last year, that is based upon the ground game and their passing game is not really up to snuf, then when they get behind and have to play catch up, it becomes very relevant. when teams are behind, they rely moreso on their passing game to quickly catch up. same applies if you are losing and there are only 2 minutes remaining in the game. at that point, it becomes imperative that your passing game can flourish.

I agree with fox on this....although I will also say that quality of targets also comes into play

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Likely includes "other Duties "

I have a lot of respect for Roman. And Kromer actually.

I think Greg with A. Lynn as HC would have done okay in Buffalo.

Not a knock on the new staff by any means though!

execution of scheme.

This is why I feel the Bills will be improved on both sides of the ball this season.

...Roman was livid internally with the Cassel trade from what I know.....so I'm not sure nor will we ever know how much TT excited him.....Lynn had to pick up the pieces unfortunately, but nice to see him land a HC job....something about the new staff is passing the smell test so far (said that before and got 17 years of stench in my face for it)....

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...Roman was livid internally with the Cassel trade from what I know.....so I'm not sure nor will we ever know how much TT excited him.....Lynn had to pick up the pieces unfortunately, but nice to see him land a HC job....something about the new staff is passing the smell test so far (said that before and got 17 years of stench in my face for it)....

I was aware of some discontent. I can imagine it was not that hard to let Roman go.

Just a what if ? from me.

No reason not to risk be hopeful about the current staff. Btw i am sure there will be Staff adjustments post season. first year staff still working the process.

But as a whole this first effort by Sean/Terry.Beane, smells like something good is cooking right now.

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I dont care about having the #1 Run game, its not how you get to the superbowl. You MUST be able to throw the damn ball and do it well. I would rather drop to 8th or 10th in rushing and greatly increase our passing numbers.

 

But it CAN be how you get there so long as you have a passing attack to compliment it and a stout defense.

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I read we were 7th in scoring last year. Yes, we need to pass more, and I believe Denison will put us in a position to make that happen. McDermitt turned around every defense he coached. That's what has to improve this year.

I don't think the Bills need to pass more. They need to be able to pass when passing is necessary to win the game. That was the problem last season. All was well when they were dominating with the running game and had the lead, but trailing late in games spelled doom.

 

They could also use a few more big plays from the passing game, but honestly I think that part would have been fine if they had Sammy all season.

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Thurman, I respect you as one of the more intelligent posters on this board but I have to disagree to an extent.

 

Let's say the Bills score 100 offensive TDs this year. But only 37 of the 100 TDs came through the air. Would you still be disappointed in the passing game?

 

The percent of TDs that come through the air is meaningless.

 

Think about this: teams today generally pass more than they run. So today's defenses (schemes, rosters, lineups) are more designed to stop the pass than the run. In fact, defenses are in nickel and dime packages about 60% of the time.

 

The ancient Chinese strategist, Sun Tzu, said it's best to 'attack where there is no defense.' So if defenses are trying to stop the pass, maybe the smart thing to do right now is run. It's certainly the smart thing to do when your RB is better than your QB.

 

In the end, why do we care how we get our points as long as we score more than our opponent?

 

Last year, we were in the top 10 in scoring but our D was weak. We need to get better at D. But you're right - we're unlikely to be as effective on the ground this year as we were last year. So - to stay in the top 10 in scoring - we're going to have to develop a better passing game. And I think we will - screw the pundits.

A whole lot is getting made of the Bills being top 10 in scoring offense so I'd like to explore that a little more. They were tied with Pittsburgh (generally considered an excellent offensive team) for 10th at 24.9 ppg. That's top 11 and very respectable. One more FG a game and we'd have been top 3, just ahead of NE. One FG less a game and we'd have been 20th overall, a little below average. So that's the range we are in. A little improvement would vault us into the top of the league, but a little drop off would send us back to average.

 

We were also tied for 16th in defensive scoring at 23.6 ppg, exactly average. Improve by a FG a game and we'd move up to 12th. Give up an extra FG a game and we'd be at 29th! Yikes!

 

Looking back on the O and D run and pass rankings (see my previous post) it tells us a lot about the Bills. We were an elite rushing team with excellent pass defense, but terrible run defense and poor passing game.

 

The first thing that sticks out to me is that, wow, we can't fall off at all on defense. That'd be catastrophic. An improvement is obviously needed and I do expect it based solely on us running a competent scheme this season. But it'll take a big improvement (3.6 ppg) to get into the top 5. We were there before Wrex, so maybe we can get back - or at least close. As many have noted, the scoring defense needs to improve. Statistically that looks like it's all run defense, but one could argue that other teams ran on us a lot because they were ahead late in the game. Regardless, our run defense sucked.

 

The second thing, as I noted before, is that the pass game has to improve. Our run game is so far ahead of everyone else that we really can't improve it. 8 of the other top 11 ranked offenses made the post season. There are times that we will need to pass to win and we haven't been able to do that. That has to change too.

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I was aware of some discontent. I can imagine it was not that hard to let Roman go.

Just a what if ? from me.

No reason not to risk be hopeful about the current staff. Btw i am sure there will be Staff adjustments post season. first year staff still working the process.

But as a whole this first effort by Sean/Terry.Beane, smells like something good is cooking right now.

...surf 'n turf works for me......... :thumbsup: ...good 'ol Wrecks was woodchuck and carp................

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not sure whether I am hungry................ or nauseous.

...sounds as if breakfast toast has been cancelled for the foreseeable future with this disgusting visual.....be wary if Wrecks signs a marketing deal with Smuckers.... :thumbsup:....Welchs may be the safer bet....

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  • 2 weeks later...

If you didn't already know it, the Bills' 2016 run game was pretty damn good. The offense in '17 will be IZ/OZ heavy. We're already pretty good at it.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-best-offensive-line-units-by-run-concept-from-2016/

 

I think it's going to take a step back with less variety in the schemes. Last year's run game was so developed and diverse that it could really attack any defense regardless of its alignment or disposition.

 

I think this year it's going to be up to the passing game to step it up a notch and back defenses off, otherwise it's going to be hard to maintain the level of effectiveness that they had last season.

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I think it's going to take a step back with less variety in the schemes. Last year's run game was so developed and diverse that it could really attack any defense regardless of its alignment or disposition.

 

I think this year it's going to be up to the passing game to step it up a notch and back defenses off, otherwise it's going to be hard to maintain the level of effectiveness that they had last season.

 

I don't completely buy that idea. When you're that dominant running a concept, it points in the direction of teams simply struggling to stop you imposing your will. Potentially returning all 5 linemen responsible (or starting what I believe to be an upgrade at RT) and the same starting RB, the continuity is still there.

 

I agree that the pass game will have to get better (and we will be passing more in '17). Tyrod will be put into a position to shut up some of the critics that think he can't execute off play action or on time. If he can really make the next step as a passer, especially on bootleg plays off the stretch run action, it'll make him so much harder to defend.

Edited by Blokestradamus
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I don't completely buy that idea. When you're that dominant running a concept, it points in the direction of teams simply struggling to stop you imposing your will. Potentially returning all 5 linemen responsible (or starting what I believe to be an upgrade at RT) and the same starting RB, the continuity is still there.

 

I agree that the pass game will have to get better (and we will be passing more in '17). Tyrod will be put into a position to shut up some of the critics that think he can't execute off play action or on time. If he can really make the next step as a passer, especially on bootleg plays off the stretch run action, it'll make him so much harder to defend.

Yeah, but the Bills weren't running just one concept last season. That was a major key to their success. They would run zone, man, read option, iso, traps, misdirection, etc. They would run the QB, RBs and WRs. That's a lot to prepare for and defense's just couldn't handle all of it.

 

The Cowboys were more of an example of a team that ran a few simple concepts but just imposed their will. The Bills OL is not at that level.

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I don't completely buy that idea. When you're that dominant running a concept, it points in the direction of teams simply struggling to stop you imposing your will. Potentially returning all 5 linemen responsible (or starting what I believe to be an upgrade at RT) and the same starting RB, the continuity is still there.

 

I agree that the pass game will have to get better (and we will be passing more in '17). Tyrod will be put into a position to shut up some of the critics that think he can't execute off play action or on time. If he can really make the next step as a passer, especially on bootleg plays off the stretch run action, it'll make him so much harder to defend.

 

...will also preserve OL if passing game is sped up.....holding blocks during prolonged east-west scrambles will wear them down especially in the heat and the rotational guys need plenty of work versus plug 'n play.......also need to preserve Shady with + or - 250 carries in 2017....find a complimentary back to help carry the load and utilize Shady out of the backfield...the lad has hands......

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I don't completely buy that idea. When you're that dominant running a concept, it points in the direction of teams simply struggling to stop you imposing your will. Potentially returning all 5 linemen responsible (or starting what I believe to be an upgrade at RT) and the same starting RB, the continuity is still there.

 

I agree that the pass game will have to get better (and we will be passing more in '17). Tyrod will be put into a position to shut up some of the critics that think he can't execute off play action or on time. If he can really make the next step as a passer, especially on bootleg plays off the stretch run action, it'll make him so much harder to defend.

a resounding agreement from me on both paragraphs.

Vic C's recent dig at the Bills O line is caustic in the nicest manner.

I feel they will at the very least maintain if not actually improve.

 

And this offense , in theory of course, should be Hotrods comfort zone.

Could be how they sold him to come back at that price. His best chance to succeed perhaps ?

and as mentioned LM might have more fun with this game play.

You folks are right, he really has sweet hands and is very fluid coming out of the backfield making it easier for the qb.

 

 

I can imagine good things.

Like screens to Watkins with LM in motion. That's gotta be a brutal look for defenses, if they Bills develop that type of call and make it an honest threat to gameplan against !

 

THIS!!!

 

TD Mike is really good...let's not take away form his talents. I am still upset about losing him to the Cheatriots!

your pain is reasonable. You are not the only one Brother. Great change of pace back.

I wish they had a rookie who played Shady style ball, so the Veteran could mentor. Maybe next draft.

Edited by 3rdand12
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@RobQuinn619

Bills 'unstoppable' run game should carry over into 2017 despite coaching changes

https://t.co/c6CbTPx5jJ

 

I'd like to hope so...and yes, if Dennison is smart, he'll be pulling pages and pages from the Roman playbook along with the annotations from Anthony Lynn. Its innovative, it uses the talent on the field, and it worked.

 

But....

 

I've also heard the same from other coaches...taking over something that had worked...and pledging not to destroy it.

 

Rex's press conference after he fired Schwartz:

 

"One thing you'll find out about me is that it's not ego-driven. We're not going to definitely play a 3-4 or a 4-3, for that matter. We're going to have in our arsenal the ability to do anything. As an opponent, you've got to prepare for everything because, if not, I'm going to find out what you're not prepared for and I'll attack you appropriately. That's how we play defense. We play defense based on our personnel, not just the scheme. I don't try to put a square peg in a round hole."

 

That statement alone should quell any fear that the Bills' defense will take a step back by losing Schwartz. Ryan knows defense as well as anybody in the NFL.

 

http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2015/01/rex_ryan_explains_firing_jim_schwartz_says_buffalo_bills_defense_will_rank_no_1.html

 

Coaches have egos. They want to do things their way.

 

Colonel Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain: Generals can do anything. There's nothing so much like a god on earth as a General on a battlefield.

 

I'm sure many think of themselves as generals when they put together their gameplan. Its why most haven't learned more than one "scheme" in their careers, but expecdt players to learn a new one every year.

 

 

I won't speak for Dennison, I don't know enough aobut him..but he'd be a fool not to take things from that playbook.

 

Whether he will...another story.

 

Ive come to realize that nfl coordinators can be the biggest divas in all of sports.

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Good article, I love PFF

 

Now this may rile up folks but its true

The Bills under Pegs to date continually exhibit a lack of on field continuity

Think about it

4 yrs of ownership and there's been 3 mgmt regimes

 

So those who thought our 2014 D would be just as good in 2015 were dead wrong

Looking back there was a lack of continuity

Mgmt changes, scheme changes, minor player changes, all had a major impact, the end result is history

 

I'll project the same thing will unfort occur will the Bills 2017 run game

There is a lack of continuity from 2016

You cannot change HC's, OC's, blocking schemes, make player changes, and it not have an effect

True, its possible the run game could be even better

But the odds are all the changes will result in it not being as effecient as it was last year

Then again I expect with a healthy Sammy, shiny new WR's, different blocking on passing downs, you might see an improved pass attack

If I am correct maybe it'll balance itself out

And I hope I'm wrong, I'm totally down with winning with a great ground game and a better D

 

I'm just not yet convinced with all the changes the 2017 Bills will offer either or

I mean do you see an easy 10 wins here with this offense or defense?

 

jc

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JW had those same holes and sucked.

be jw sucked and Gillislee didnt. diesnt mean he was worth 4+ mil.. if we can find ANYONE to keep Tolbert from being out number 2. we SHOULD be ok

I dont care about having the #1 Run game, its not how you get to the superbowl. You MUST be able to throw the damn ball and do it well. I would rather drop to 8th or 10th in rushing and greatly increase our passing numbers.

our offense would still be the same ranking wise but more dangerous. that my friend is how you make a difference Edited by Agent 91
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Most of this statement is short-sighted and incorrect.

 

The marks of a good offense are POINTS SCORED, AVOIDING TURNOVERS and EFFICIENCY.

How a team manages to accomplish these things (running or passing) is completely and totally irrelevant.

 

Does this mean our passing game is good enough right now? Absolutely not. There are going to be times where the team is behind without much time on the clock, and Tyrod Taylor is forced to move the ball with his arm. These are moments when the run game will not help and the QB can't afford to play it safe. We need Tyrod to get better in these moments. No doubt.

 

But I hate when people suggest the Bills should just forget the run and become a passing team, because "that's what wins in the NFL." It's just not true.

great post

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I read we were 7th in scoring last year. Yes, we need to pass more, and I believe Denison will put us in a position to make that happen. McDermitt turned around every defense he coached. That's what has to improve this year.

all he has to do to turn the bills defense around is go back to a 43. will we be top 3? prob not but top 10 is my expectation

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Thurman, I respect you as one of the more intelligent posters on this board but I have to disagree to an extent.

 

Let's say the Bills score 100 offensive TDs this year. But only 37 of the 100 TDs came through the air. Would you still be disappointed in the passing game?

 

The percent of TDs that come through the air is meaningless.

 

Think about this: teams today generally pass more than they run. So today's defenses (schemes, rosters, lineups) are more designed to stop the pass than the run. In fact, defenses are in nickel and dime packages about 60% of the time.

 

The ancient Chinese strategist, Sun Tzu, said it's best to 'attack where there is no defense.' So if defenses are trying to stop the pass, maybe the smart thing to do right now is run. It's certainly the smart thing to do when your RB is better than your QB.

 

In the end, why do we care how we get our points as long as we score more than our opponent?

 

Last year, we were in the top 10 in scoring but our D was weak. We need to get better at D. But you're right - we're unlikely to be as effective on the ground this year as we were last year. So - to stay in the top 10 in scoring - we're going to have to develop a better passing game. And I think we will - screw the pundits.

 

 

 

Hondo, the percentage of TDs gotten through the air is absolutely NOT meaningless when people so consistently try to use the whole offense's scoring totals to prove that the passing game is good.

 

The percentage of TDs gotten through the air lets the air out of that senseless connection. To take your example, if the Bills next year scored 100 TDs and 37 were through the air and people used these numbers to attempt to prove that the passing game was good, they would have failed.

 

As I've said a dozen times, the run game was terrific. I'm not arguing that. But using stats provided largely by the run game to try to say things about the pass game just doesn't make sense.

 

The bottom line is this, the run game was great, and the pass game was substandard, as was the whole defense and the STs.

 

You say, "So if defenses are trying to stop the pass, maybe the smart thing to do right now is run." Thing is, when other defenses played the Bills, they weren't trying to stop the pass. Does "make him play QB" sound familiar? Our run game was what other teams made their first priority, and for good reason when the run game's efficiency (yards per carry) was far and away #1 in the league and the pass game's efficiency (yards per attempt) was 20th in the league.

 

Boiled down, I guess what I'm trying to say is as simple as this:

 

Stats for the passing game should be used to evaluate the passing game. Stats for the run game should be used to evaluate the run game. And stats for the whole offense should be used to evaluate the whole offense.

 

People here are trying to use stats for the whole offense to evaluate the passing game. Which doesn't make sense.

 

 

 

As for us developing a better pass game next year, I'd argue we have to do more than get better, that we have to get a lot better. Can we do it? Yeah, it's possible. I highly doubt it, but I hope you're right. Clearly it would be the best thing for the Bills.

 

Love the Sun Tzu reference, though I'm more of a Musashi fan. "Whatever your determination or will power, it is foolish to try to change the nature of things. Things work the way they do because that is the way of things." I disagree with significant amounts of it, but still, nice thoughtful post.

Edited by Thurman#1
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be jw sucked and Gillislee didnt. diesnt mean he was worth 4+ mil.. if we can find ANYONE to keep Tolbert from being out number 2. we SHOULD be ok

 

 

 

Gillislee was worth the money the Pats gave him. The Pats are skinflints and they valued him right. The Pats made him the 27th highest paid back in the league, the guy who outran LeSean McCoy behind the same line, scoring the highest yards per carry figure in the league.

 

Touchdown Mike is worth the money, and more than that, the Pats had to give him more money than we had to. We could have kept him by giving him a 2nd round tender, which was $2.81 mill. Which would have valued him 30th in the league. Again, a good deal.

 

We were in serious salary cap straits, though, and couldn't do it, which is a damn shame.

Edited by Thurman#1
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I read we were 7th in scoring last year. Yes, we need to pass more, and I believe Denison will put us in a position to make that happen. McDermitt turned around every defense he coached. That's what has to improve this year.

 

 

McDermott has turned around defenses very well indeed. But not necessarily in the first year.

 

2008 Eagles 3rd in yards, 12th in points, 4th in points

McDermott becomes defensive coordinator before 2009 season

2009 Eagles 12th in yards, 19th in points

2010 Eagles 12th in yards, 21st in points

 

2010 Panthers 18th in yards, 26th in points

McDermott becomes defensive coordinator before 2010 season

2011 28th in yards, 27th in points

2012 10th in yards, 18th in points

2013 2nd in yards, 2nd in points

2014 10th in yards, 21st in points

2015 6th in points, 6th in points

2016 21st in yards, 26th in points

 

There's a lot of interesting things there, but one of them is that it generally takes him more than a year to make a real turnaround.

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Looking back on the O and D run and pass rankings (see my previous post) it tells us a lot about the Bills. We were an elite rushing team with excellent pass defense, but terrible run defense and poor passing game.

 

The first thing that sticks out to me is that, wow, we can't fall off at all on defense. That'd be catastrophic. An improvement is obviously needed and I do expect it based solely on us running a competent scheme this season. But it'll take a big improvement (3.6 ppg) to get into the top 5. We were there before Wrex, so maybe we can get back - or at least close. As many have noted, the scoring defense needs to improve. Statistically that looks like it's all run defense, but one could argue that other teams ran on us a lot because they were ahead late in the game. Regardless, our run defense sucked.

 

The second thing, as I noted before, is that the pass game has to improve. Our run game is so far ahead of everyone else that we really can't improve it. 8 of the other top 11 ranked offenses made the post season. There are times that we will need to pass to win and we haven't been able to do that. That has to change too.

 

 

 

I find it really hard to understand how anyone could call our pass defense "excellent."

 

We were 12th in the league at defensive passer rating, with an 85.9. And in a four-way tie for 22nd in the league in defensive passing efficiency, with a defensive YPA of 7.5. That's not excellent.

 

I think people try to use the fact that they only allowed 3,582 yards total in passing, 6th in the league, as evidence that they were really good. But that is largely a reflection of how infrequently teams passed against us. We had the lowest amount of passes thrown against us, #32 in the league with only 511 attempts. That's why we had a relatively low amount of yards.

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