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Football Outsiders: Bills will be 'measurably worse' in 2017


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It was sarcasm. Then again we are "measurably worse."

The only way to "measure" how good the Bills are would be to look at the win-loss column, and since the games haven't started yet I'm not sure how they could be "measurably worse." Maybe "apparently worse in my opinion" would be more accurate.

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I think we should all expect growing pains this year. Too many decent players lost to be entirely offset by McD and the 4-3.

The only hope is that if we see TT, McCoy, Sammy and clay healthy the majority of the way-- there could be a nice step taken in the offense still

 

But net talent in the short term? Yea, probably a small step back when we compare the 53 on paper year over year.

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Really really bad shape.

Running game was good last year. Let's change it, say the coaches. The one thing that's meaningless in today's NFL, they obsess over. All you need it for is to pick up third and short, and the goal line.

Defense has gone from 4-3 to 3-4 now back to a 4-3. No depth as a decade of drafts go down the drain spent on rebuilds. These rebuilds are due to one trick coaches who force themselves on the team, instead of using competence and experience to work with what they got, and prioritize for the most important position in sports.

Speaking of the one thing the Bills should focus on, QB has been totally disregarded outside of:
- TT standing on his tip toes to throw a 5 yard completion
- A 2nd round pick who went down with a knee injury in OTAs

 

It's not a rebuild. It's grooming for the rebuild.

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As I see the talent and schedule, a six win season sounds about right to me. That would not be measurably worse. "measurably" worse would be a 3 or 4 win season which would be good for the rebuild fans as a 3 winscould get us the second or third overall pick! I always hope for the best but this way there is no disappointment

 

A 3 win season is a definite possibility for this team... 6 wins would be their best probable outcome if things went reasonably well (not many injuries for example and Watkins plays close to a full season) I'll stand by that prediction barring unforeseen circumstances....

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I'll stick with my 7-9. Hopeful with this Coaching staff though.

While I'd like a few more wins, I can see that for this year. But I'm hopeful for the coming seasons (for the first time in a while).

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We get Dareus and Hughes back this year. Both were lost to Rex's scheme.

 

Plus we add in Ragland and Lawson.

 

I think our defense could really bounce back for the same reason. If our run game can repeat we will win 8 games.

 

I'm usually a huge downer...but I believe this year we ... just ... might ... go .500 again.

 

Looking forward to this season. The big thing is the schedule...it sucks.

 

If we go 7 wins we'll have had a good season...we really need to sweep the Jets and Phins....beyond that Colts, Bucs, and Saints at home get us to 7 and then we're looking @Chargers and @Chiefs to get to 9 and a possible wildcard birth. Falter somewhere and we need to win v.DEN(possible but tough), @ATL (no way), @Cinci (not likely), or home v.Raiders (not likely).

 

Long story short, tough schedule but so it goes for us every year with a locked in 2 loses to the Pats. Really need to roll the 'phins and Jets and need to beat all the average teams at home. Do that and grab 2 more along the way and we'll be the best we've been in 20 years. Get hurt at QB, RB1, WR1 (almost certain), or on the DL and we **** the bed again. No room for error.

 

We are either a bad ass front 7 with opportunistic secondary that benefits from good run stopping/pressure along with a run game and flash and pass passing game + Tyrod scramble ... or a ****ty team.

 

TLDR: Next year we are either what Rex should have been or we suck again. Defense and run game.

Edited by dayman
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A 3 win season is a definite possibility for this team... 6 wins would be their best probable outcome if things went reasonably well (not many injuries for example and Watkins plays close to a full season) I'll stand by that prediction barring unforeseen circumstances....

3 wins is ridiculous. The starting talent is not that bad. I'll stick with 7-9.

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Post draft, Las Vegas and alot of other doc called expert pundits are saying 6 wins, now PFF is saying only 3-4 wins, and just about everybody has us being 4th or 5th worst team in the AFC

 

We will find out soon enough if they are bang on or not, if they are, its gonna be an awakening for those here who insist we've had a great off season, and this and that rookie or FA is easily gonna replace whom we lost, or changing of scheme's is automatically worth X wins

 

And if we should only win 3-6 games, its gonna be real interesting to make a convincing argument, from Jan 2018 forward that all these management changes have put our team on the 'right track', when in fact the W-L record says something completely different, lol

 

Please don't get me wrong, I was calling for replacing Rex from the start, and I thought it was time for DW to go, and I love each new hire here, but at the same time I'm just not that convinced Sean's first off season has been all that successful in terms of acquiring talent necessary to win more NFL games that the team he took over, so far I not impressed whatsoever by his GM skills, though I'm sure his coaching skills are way better

 

Meanwhile fingers crossed Vegas, the pundits, PFF, are all dead wrong because us fans deserve watching our team win 10 games sometime this decade

 

jc

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I think some of us are underestimating the importance of coaching.

 

Rex and his defensive coaching did not perform well last year. Too often our guys look unprepared and played from different sheets of music.

 

I really like ALynn and think he did some really nice things in the run game. But he had zero background in the passing game and it showed.

 

This new coaching staff isn't perfect and they'll make some mistakes as well. But - on the whole - we'll be better schematically and we'll execute better as well.

 

I think, despite some roster attrition, we'll win more games in '17 than we did in '16.

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Total bunk. The only rookie they'll be relying-on to replace a departed player is White, for Gilmore. But with the move back to the 4-3, which suits most of the players and is a reason the defense will be much-improved, it will help the secondary. The biggest question is whether Ragland can play MLB.

 

On offense, Holmes and Brown can easily replace what they lost in Woods and Goodwin. If Zay Jones turns out to be a stud, so much the better, and the same goes if Dawkins can be an upgrade over Mills.

 

Don't also forget adding Hauschka. And Rehkow has a good shot of replacing Schimdt.

I like where you're head's at Doc. We need Sammy healthy, and if so we have more weapons and we have a far better coaching staff than the buffoons the last two years. No one should underestimate going to a 4-3 which our talent is designed for success, and improved communication and players can react not hesitate.

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this will be a facinating year. in my eyes it is two season. Taylor really has 10 games to get it done. If this team is 4-6 or worse then they should go to Peterman or Jones for the final 6 . I have never been in favor of "tanking" but for 6 games if it means a shot at which ever qb'rise to the top of the draft I am in. The Billsy thing would be to be 3-7 but the qb playing lights out.

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this will be a facinating year. in my eyes it is two season. Taylor really has 10 games to get it done. If this team is 4-6 or worse then they should go to Peterman or Jones for the final 6

 

I broadly agree with that. If the team looks done with 6 to play I'd like to see some Peterman (doubt Jones makes the roster).

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I just don't think Taylor is a good enough passer to carry a average team talent wise to a wildcard. To even think playoffs with Taylor we would need the Seahawks defense and the Rams offense of the 90's. I really think Taylor is gone after this year.

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A 3 win season is a definite possibility for this team... 6 wins would be their best probable outcome if things went reasonably well (not many injuries for example and Watkins plays close to a full season) I'll stand by that prediction barring unforeseen circumstances....

no, it's definitely not. every year someone says this, and every year the bills stay at that annoying average mark. i'm in no way saying the bills are good, but i personally feel last year to this year will be a lateral move.

I had no idea how critical Goodwin was to our great 2016.

exactly. i like woods a lot as well, but losing goodwin and woods doesn't exactly destroy this offense. as others have mentioned, i think the loss of MG is far worse.

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