The Six Most-Likely Scenarios for a Bills Trade-Down

[Formerly Allan in MD]

 

If it falls that way and Whaley goes QB at #10 who you want between Trubisky or Watson

Watson reminds me too much of Taylor. I'd lean towards Trubisky but it's unfortunate he doesn't have an additional year as a starter behind him. Perhaps we go WR in round one and a lesser name QB like Webb or Khaya later on.

[Baba Booey]

Foster just had surgery. I don't want another first rounder going into camp after just going under the knife!!!

[White Linen]

 

Since Whaley became GM has traded up in the draft, but he has not traded back a single time.

 

In 3 drafts he's obviously shown a historical propensity to trade up far too much.

Edited February 23, 2017 by Triple Threat

[Marty McFly]

I probably need to duck, but if it goes that way Watson would be my choice.

 

Watson reminds me too much of Taylor. I'd lean towards Trubisky but it's unfortunate he doesn't have an additional year as a starter behind him. Perhaps we go WR in round one and a lesser name QB like Webb or Khaya later on.

 

Thing with Hokies choice MD, is that Watson is a proven winner. I see the Tyrod comparison but its not by much as Watson throws all over the place, the only thing that bothers me is the film Ive seen Watson makes a lot of 1 read throws (not because he cant read but they are usually open), just hope he can go through progressions if they bring him in.

 

Trubisky is prob the top prospect as far as going through progressions goes but, doesnt have the leadership experience that Watson does.

.

If they really wanted a QB this year but not at #10, I would trade back pick up a top WRs like Mike Williams or Corey Davis, then target Pat Mahomes and let Tyrod start, while Mahomes gets used to taking snaps under center since hes always played in shotgun.

 

Really rather leave the top 3 rounds with a top WR and S regardless what they do at QB.

[ndirish1978]

i pray we dont waste pick on a QB this year. None of them are any good

[Mark Vader]

i pray we dont waste pick on a QB this year. None of them are any good

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks this way.

[Chandler#81]

I appreciate the efforts and insights here.Thanks. Given the breadth of possible selections, it begs the question 'is anyone at #10 a sure-fire, plug and play Day 1 starter'?

[simpleman]

would love to be able to trade down to pick 13-15 and still get him

Love to be able to trade down and get one but it is not going to happen. The trade would have to be to 19 at least to get the 2nd round to make it worth it. And there will be no 1st round grade WR left by that time. 13-15 would barely get you a 3rd. We need a starting WR, S and a developing QB in the 1st 2 rounds.

[simpleman]

Thanks for all the work Astro. I think trading back is only worth it if it nets you a later 1st and an extra 2nd. That means the first option would be TB or higher. Missing the 4th really hurts here. If we had that 4th we could package that with our 10th in the 1st, and trade down 5 or 6 spots and still get that 2nd. About the only way we could swing a trade to less than TB was if we could swap 3rds and give up a 5th or 6th too.

Edited February 23, 2017 by simpleman

[aristocrat]

watson is the only qb i want. he's thrown for more yards in one years than tyrod did in 2 years of college. not even close to a comparison

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I would love the Bills to start trading down more to acquire more picks. If I were a GM that is the approach I would take. It gives you so much flexibility. Personally I would be fine with taking one of Hooker, Adams, Foster, Mike Williams or on of the top 3 QB'S at 10 but I wouldn't mind a trade down as well.

 

trading down isn't a guarantee of success. see: browns.

[ALF]

If the QB the Bills want at #10 is gone , trade down for a needed extra pick .

[thebandit27]

I appreciate the efforts and insights here.Thanks. Given the breadth of possible selections, it begs the question 'is anyone at #10 a sure-fire, plug and play Day 1 starter'?

 

Well, assuming that there is such a thing, I would say that the following guys qualify as "probable day-1 starters" for just about every team:

 

Myles Garrett

Jonathan Allen

Malik Hooker

Jamal Adams

Marshon Lattimore

Sidney Jones

Reuben Foster

Corey Davis

Mike Williams

Dalvin Cook

If the QB the Bills want at #10 is gone , trade down for a needed extra pick .

 

It's not an automatic--someone needs to be willing to come up, and you need to make sure that you're getting value for moving down. Dropping into the 20's and potentially watching 10+ of your higher-rated prospects go off the board, just to acquire an extra 3rd round pick would be a terrible move (not that I think you're endorsing such a move; I simply mean that "just trade down" isn't a push-button scenario).

[ROONDOGG55]

 

My "#DraftTek Bills Fan Club" asked me, "What would be the targets for other teams at the Bills' #10?"

The answer took me an hour, but I needed to know. It was a great question. Next week's Combine can change the names involved, but team picks and needs will remain the same. I considered six scenarios:

The ILB Intrigue:

Detroit #20 or Miami #21 wants ILB Reuben Foster, but New Orleans wants him at #11. Either trade up to #10 to get him.

The QB Quandary:

CLE and SF have QB as #1 need. Cleveland drafts Garrett at 1, not QB, signaling intention to draft QB with other RD1 at #12.

ARI#13 or WAS#17 trades up for QB of choice at #10.

The OT Onslaught:

CLE takes QB at #12, signaling their 2nd offense priority (OT) may be #12 pick.

Philly at #15 wants OT in thin market, TB#19, NYG#23 thinking the same thing.

The Peppers Caper

CHI#3 takes SS JAdams, Jets#6 take Hooker, Peppers is there at #10.

Cleve #12, Wash#17, Ten #18, TB#19, leapfrog to call Whaley.

The McKinley Mindbender:

BAL#16 wants to get ahead of Indy#14 to select their EDGE rusher McKinley. They call Whaley.

But WAS#17, MIA#22 also interested, and they call Whaley. Doug has them bidding against each other.

The CB/S Scenario:

CHI#3 or TEN#5 takes Humphrey, (NYJ#6 goes QB), you know CLE#12 may take their top D priority, a S or CB.

Peppers or Lattimore is going off board at #12.

PHI#15, WAS#17, DET#21, SEA#26, DAL#28 leapfrog to call Whaley for the #10.

Let me know your thoughts about the plausibility of these.

 

 

I love the idea of trading down, but if the Bills retain, Tyrod, Gillmore, and Z. Brown, then we should go for Reuben Foster. Especially if this kid blows up the combine. Ragland at Sam, Z. Brown at Will, and Foster at Mike. We would easily have the best LB core in the NFL and could take our defense back to what we were pre-Rex era. I wouldn't be nervous about safeties either. McDermott has had tremendous success with cast off safeties, which is exactly what we have.

[GunnerBill]

So I have completed my way too early mock (will post later) and I really struggled to find trade scenarios that made sense right across the first round this year. There will be trades but at the moment they haven't crystallised for me.

 

If Jonathan Allen drops (I see him as the surprise faller) might a team come up to take him at 10? Again... a bit like Foster... are you really trading up in the 1st for a defensive tackle (or linebacker)? Feels a stretch to me.

 

The most likely trade scenario in the top 10 is someone wants their choice of the 2 WRs and wants to get ahead of the Titans at #5. I can see the Jags wanting to move back just not sure right now who that trade up team is... to get to #4 it has to be a team in striking distance I think.... so in the first half of the round. Arizona possibly? San Diego maybe? Cincinnati I see as the sneaky receiver team in the top 10 but they very rarely move up the board and Philadelphia have a huge need for a #1 WR but are they gonna give up picks to move up a 2nd year in a row? Seems unlikely.

[Bill from NYC]

My "#DraftTek Bills Fan Club" asked me, "What would be the targets for other teams at the Bills' #10?"

The answer took me an hour, but I needed to know. It was a great question. Next week's Combine can change the names involved, but team picks and needs will remain the same. I considered six scenarios:

 

The ILB Intrigue:

Detroit #20 or Miami #21 wants ILB Reuben Foster, but New Orleans wants him at #11. Either trade up to #10 to get him.

 

 

The QB Quandary:

CLE and SF have QB as #1 need. Cleveland drafts Garrett at 1, not QB, signaling intention to draft QB with other RD1 at #12.

ARI#13 or WAS#17 trades up for QB of choice at #10.

 

The OT Onslaught:

CLE takes QB at #12, signaling their 2nd offense priority (OT) may be #12 pick.

Philly at #15 wants OT in thin market, TB#19, NYG#23 thinking the same thing.

 

The Peppers Caper

CHI#3 takes SS JAdams, Jets#6 take Hooker, Peppers is there at #10.

Cleve #12, Wash#17, Ten #18, TB#19, leapfrog to call Whaley.

 

The McKinley Mindbender:

BAL#16 wants to get ahead of Indy#14 to select their EDGE rusher McKinley. They call Whaley.

But WAS#17, MIA#22 also interested, and they call Whaley. Doug has them bidding against each other.

 

The CB/S Scenario:

CHI#3 or TEN#5 takes Humphrey, (NYJ#6 goes QB), you know CLE#12 may take their top D priority, a S or CB.

Peppers or Lattimore is going off board at #12.

PHI#15, WAS#17, DET#21, SEA#26, DAL#28 leapfrog to call Whaley for the #10.

 

Let me know your thoughts about the plausibility of these.

My thoughts? I think that this was a well thought, great post.

 

Thanks for this, and all of your other work.

[ChanOverChin]

For the Bills, it all comes down to QB.

 

Who will be Buffalo's QB in 2017?? Does anybody really know??

 

If the Bills keep Taylor or somehow acquire Romo they might still want to go QB at #10 overall (since they may not have such a good opportunity to obtain a franchise caliber QB). One way or another though the Bills will need to know who their QB will be by the time they select at #10 overall.

 

The Bills really like Trubisky, but he won't make it to #10 overall.

 

Watson?? Kizer?? Mahomes?? There's no way to know how high the Bills value these guys.

[Kirby Jackson]

He's probably my #2 choice at pick 10 behind Garrett (who'll never get to 10). After him it's Adams, Allen, Hooker, Lattimore, Davis, Williams, Thomas. Worst nightmare for me is all 9 of them gone before 10

I think (including Foster) those are the top 9 talents in the draft. There is a drop off after them IMO.

So I have completed my way too early mock (will post later) and I really struggled to find trade scenarios that made sense right across the first round this year. There will be trades but at the moment they haven't crystallised for me.

 

If Jonathan Allen drops (I see him as the surprise faller) might a team come up to take him at 10? Again... a bit like Foster... are you really trading up in the 1st for a defensive tackle (or linebacker)? Feels a stretch to me.

 

The most likely trade scenario in the top 10 is someone wants their choice of the 2 WRs and wants to get ahead of the Titans at #5. I can see the Jags wanting to move back just not sure right now who that trade up team is... to get to #4 it has to be a team in striking distance I think.... so in the first half of the round. Arizona possibly? San Diego maybe? Cincinnati I see as the sneaky receiver team in the top 10 but they very rarely move up the board and Philadelphia have a huge need for a #1 WR but are they gonna give up picks to move up a 2nd year in a row? Seems unlikely.

I could see someone trying to get in front of us for the 2nd receiver. There is a drop after those 2 and I think the Titans take one at 5.

 

On a side note I'm glad to see Lattimore rising (although I'm not surprised).

Edited February 23, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

I think (including Foster) those are the top 9 talents in the draft. There is a drop off after them IMO.

I could see someone trying to get in front of us for the 2nd receiver. There is a drop after those 2 and I think the Titans take one at 5.

 

On a side note I'm glad to see Lattimore rising (although I'm not surprised).

 

I think there is a top 8. I am not as high on Thomas as a lot of people. I think Tennessee will go receiver at 5 and I think if you want to be sure of getting the 2nd one you better get ahead of San Diego who are a possible (though they should go defense) and Cincinnati, who I think are a real danger to teams wanting the second WR. My board has a big drop off after Williams and Davis. I have said elsewhere today they are the only two I have first round grades on and I have 7 with second round grades.

 

Lattimore is now the clear #2 on my board after Garrett. The more I watch him the more I love him.... he is a potential lockdown, all pro level corner.

[KRT88]

The bills should identify that one guy who would be a must at 10. If he's not there they should have a boat load of guys in mind and trade back if possible. We have 6 picks! The team needs 9 or10. Move back the draft is deep at several position.