The Trump Economy

[RochesterRob]

20 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Sex? Not even referring to that. You are your knees before Trump, like a cultist. 

  When logic fails refer to the opposition as cultists is what you do.  Sadly, the people you champion would use you like a condom and accordingly throw you away if they came to power.  The notion that you will rise up and be powerful in a socialist state is utter fantasy for you.  You don't want to live long enough to find out what it is like to transition from useful idiot to useless idiot.  If you were younger you might wind up in a re-education camp but even there it would be determined that your intellect is too limited to bend into something useful.  I don't think that you would make the grade as menial labor in the old Soviet block and if you were lucky they would choose not to feed you versus an extended "holiday" in the East (Siberia).  

[keepthefaith]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

Lol, ya, sure they will. Soybean farmers will be cashing Trumps welfare checks. He's created a new dependency class and guess who is paying for it? 

 

The soybean market is a global market, a commodity like many others.  If China buys soybeans from producers other than the U.S. then other customers will go wherever they get the best price.  There might be some short term chop in the market but the rules of supply and demand shall apply. 

[3rdnlng]

The USA has had an unfair trade relationship with China for decades. Our trade deficit with them is in the hundreds of billions annually. They steal our intellectual property and make it difficult to sell our products to them. Trump is the first President to try to even the scales.  Long term, we hold the cards here but that's only true if we have the cahones to not get bluffed. If we cave into China's demands then they'll certainly overtake us not only as the world's super power but as the economic leader of the planet. Our vast energy resources and immense agricultural capacity coupled with our free society and intellectual abilities put us in the cat perch, but only if we choose to sit there.

[dpberr]

Smacking around the Chinese on trade was going to happen.  Some US President was going to have to do it.  Just so happened to be Trump.  Bush 1, Clinton, Bush 2 and Obama all certainly could have done the same thing.  

[3rdnlng]

41 minutes ago, dpberr said:

Smacking around the Chinese on trade was going to happen.  Some US President was going to have to do it.  Just so happened to be Trump.  Bush 1, Clinton, Bush 2 and Obama all certainly could have done the same thing.  

It's funny, but it's almost as if you want to get something considered conservative accomplished then you need a democrat president to do it. A democrat president would have the support of his party and the media and enough conservatives to get it done Think Clinton and welfare reform in the mid 90's. A conservative president would need a majority in the House and a super majority in the Senate to get a law passed over the opposition democrats and any RINO republicans.

[jrober38]

10 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  Far from out of business.  The best areas of the world are already being used for agriculture with existing outlets for product.  What remains is problematic due to politics or climate (or in the case of the Ukraine both).  Droughts, untimely frost, and disease will still plague agriculture meaning that China from time to time will have to turn to somewhat more stable suppliers such as the US.  Further, much research is happening for uses of soybeans other than feeding to livestock such as extracting its oils for industrial and personal uses.  These uses now include the development of plastics for structural material.  Far better markets in the long term than a fickle trade partner.

 

I think you underestimate how fragile modern farming is to family run farms.

 

If you planted soy beans this year, and you planned on selling them to China, you're screwed. 

[jrober38]

9 hours ago, GG said:

 

What do you think there were strategic implications of US designating Brazil as an important non-NATO military ally?

 

I have no idea. They have a tiny economy and US exports there are next to nothing. 

 

Brazil is a massive net exporter of agricultural products so I wouldn't count on them making up much of what China isn't buying anymore. 

[plenzmd1]

interesting quote's here from Tucker Carlson..one of Trumps biggest supporters.... at the 27 second mark.." the average person is getting poorer"...thought Trumps massive tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations were a "rising tide will lift all boats" thing..guess not

 

 

[RochesterRob]

11 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think you underestimate how fragile modern farming is to family run farms.

 

If you planted soy beans this year, and you planned on selling them to China, you're screwed. 

  I've underestimated nothing.  There are many obstacles to running a successful farm and marketing is just one of perhaps a dozen.  Also, you don't plan on your soybean crop going to China as though you have direct control in this.  There are other outlets for your soybeans depending on who your local broker/elevator deals with.  A fair amount of WNY crop goes to places such as Vietnam.  Lastly, quite a bit of WNY soybeans are being trucked into Canada with the intent of going to China.  The same thing happened with wheat and the Soviet Union back in the 1980's.  Wheat was trucked into Canada then in turn loaded onto ships going to the Soviet Union.  The Soviets did not ask any questions as to origin and most likely knew Canada did not grow that kind of volume with the same being true with China. China will no doubt make a spectacle of buying none US soybeans but will not ask any questions as to true Canadian production.

[B-Man]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

interesting quote's here from Tucker Carlson..one of Trumps biggest supporters.... at the 27 second mark.." the average person is getting poorer"...thought Trumps massive tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations were a "rising tide will lift all boats" thing..guess not

 

 

 

 

So..................we are supposed to believe him when he says "average americans are getting poorer", but

 

NOT believe him when he says that liberals are overstating the white supremacy problem as a hoax to their benefit politically

 

(in the same clip)

 

Thanks for the clarification.

[plenzmd1]

4 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

So..................we are supposed to believe him when he says "average americans are getting poorer", but

 

NOT believe him when he says that liberals are overstating the white supremacy problem as a hoax to their benefit politically

 

(in the same clip)

 

Thanks for the clarification.

so, we are supposed to believe when he says white supremacy is a hoax..bit NOT believe him when he says t "average Americans are getting poorer"

 

Thanks for the clarification!!!!!

 

I am sure the MSM somehow made him say that!!!!

Edited August 7, 2019 by plenzmd1

[Ted Striker]

On 8/6/2019 at 11:12 AM, RochesterRob said:

  Tibs is very used to being bent over and reamed so he assumes that everybody else feels the same way.

 

It's a damn good thing he doesn't know how much I hate his guts.

[3rdnlng]

2 hours ago, Ted Striker said:

 

It's a damn good thing he doesn't know how much I hate his guts.

Make him feel it and scream like a pig. Him, not you.

[GG]

21 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I have no idea. They have a tiny economy and US exports there are next to nothing. 

 

Brazil is a massive net exporter of agricultural products so I wouldn't count on them making up much of what China isn't buying anymore. 

 

So what you are saying is that a massive agri exporter won’t have the ability to sell to China?

[3rdnlng]

49 minutes ago, GG said:

 

So what you are saying is that a massive agri exporter won’t have the ability to sell to China?

A massive agricultural exporter with a tiny economy.

[Q-baby!]

6 hours ago, Ted Striker said:

 

It's a damn good thing he doesn't know how much I hate his guts.

Like anyone cares what you think. 

[Deranged Rhino]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1158945886279557125

[DC Tom]

On 8/6/2019 at 10:03 PM, jrober38 said:

 

I have no idea. They have a tiny economy and US exports there are next to nothing. 

 

Brazil is a massive net exporter of agricultural products so I wouldn't count on them making up much of what China isn't buying anymore. 

 

Brazil is the 9th-largest economy in the world, and China is their largest trading partner.

[Buffalo_Gal]

There is enough gloom and doom being forecast in this article to make those on the left "happy":
 

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market remains strong even as the economy is slowing.
 

</snip>
 

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the government said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would be unchanged at 215,000 in the latest week.
 

</snip>
 

Though hiring has slowed, the pace of job gains remains well above the roughly 100,000 needed per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
 

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 164,000 jobs in July, down from 193,000 in June. Job growth over the last three months averaged 140,000 per month, the lowest in nearly two years, compared to 223,000 in 2018. The moderation in employment growth partly reflects a shortage of workers.
 

</snip>

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

There is enough gloom and doom being forecast in this article to make those on the left "happy":
 

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market remains strong even as the economy is slowing.
 

</snip>
 

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the government said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would be unchanged at 215,000 in the latest week.
 

</snip>
 

Though hiring has slowed, the pace of job gains remains well above the roughly 100,000 needed per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
 

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 164,000 jobs in July, down from 193,000 in June. Job growth over the last three months averaged 140,000 per month, the lowest in nearly two years, compared to 223,000 in 2018. The moderation in employment growth partly reflects a shortage of workers.
 

</snip>

 

....WELL, first AND foremost...is hubby STILL okay?.....OR....does he have one leg over the Peace Bridge railing??...just askin'......

[Tiberius]

Drudge Report is hysterical!

 

BANK OF AMERICA raises chance of recession to 1-in-3...

Fed Considers New Tool for Downturn...

OUT OF CONTROL: Federal Spending Sets New Record...
Deficit Widens 27%...
American household debt nears $14 trillion...

Treasury yields extend plunge...

[Tiberius]

Looks like Trump blinked on trade war and stock market took off!

 

No clue what a Chinese crackdown on little Hong Kong will do, but I bet it will reverberate

[plenzmd1]

2 hours ago, Tiberius said:

Looks like Trump blinked on trade war and stock market took off!

 

No clue what a Chinese crackdown on little Hong Kong will do, but I bet it will reverberate

Of course he did, it was never a question of what was going to happen there.

Is anyone else getting sick of a sideways market for the last two years..i know I am

 

26,616 when tax law went into effect...26,300 now..and a deficit that has exploded, and the R word getting used more and more

 

 

Yay Trump economy!!!!!

 

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

5 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Of course he did, it was never a question of what was going to happen there.

Is anyone else getting sick of a sideways market for the last two years..i know I am

 

26,616 when tax law went into effect...26,300 now..and a deficit that has exploded, and the R word getting used more and more

 

 

Yay Trump economy!!!!!

 

 

 

 

Yah, it got a little dead cat bounce for tax law and has been just staying around that area.

[ALF]

Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red

 

The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.

 

The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.

 

“Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities,” Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business.

 

“If you depended on equities to tell you whether you are entering into a recession you did not do well. For example, October, November of 2006, exactly one year before the Great Recession began, the 2-10- inverted. Equities did well in the first half of 2008 when we were in a recession and oil prices hit a peak in May of 2008 when we were very much in a recession.

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/yield-curve-inversion-signals-recession

 

German economy shrinks as 'golden decade' comes to an end

 

Germany's economy shrank in the second quarter as global uncertainty and the trade war took a toll on its manufacturers.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/business/germany-economy-gdp/index.html

[plenzmd1]

@TPS and @GG, yall prolly get this stuff already, but good primer for us laymen

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-21/modern-monetary-theory-beginner-s-guide?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Q2-2019_Bloomberg_Retargeting_Evergreen-Subscription_All-Users_Phase1-Countries&utm_term=Retargeting_Paywall-Subscription_Engagement_Organic-Engagers_Male-Female_All-Ages_Twitter&utm_content=Content_Article_Modern-Monetary_V1

 

I have not read fully yet, will when get some time later today.

 

[GG]

15 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

@TPS and @GG, yall prolly get this stuff already, but good primer for us laymen

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-21/modern-monetary-theory-beginner-s-guide?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Q2-2019_Bloomberg_Retargeting_Evergreen-Subscription_All-Users_Phase1-Countries&utm_term=Retargeting_Paywall-Subscription_Engagement_Organic-Engagers_Male-Female_All-Ages_Twitter&utm_content=Content_Article_Modern-Monetary_V1

 

I have not read fully yet, will when get some time later today.

 

 

In short, MMT'ers are morons.  They have cause & effect backwards.

 

It's like saying that you should expect the same results from Nate Peterman as you would from Tom Brady because they're both called Quarterbacks. (For DC Tom's request that we discuss QBs)

[TPS]

42 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

@TPS and @GG, yall prolly get this stuff already, but good primer for us laymen

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-21/modern-monetary-theory-beginner-s-guide?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Q2-2019_Bloomberg_Retargeting_Evergreen-Subscription_All-Users_Phase1-Countries&utm_term=Retargeting_Paywall-Subscription_Engagement_Organic-Engagers_Male-Female_All-Ages_Twitter&utm_content=Content_Article_Modern-Monetary_V1

 

I have not read fully yet, will when get some time later today.

 

When you read it, you'll see that much of my argument with GG is based on an understanding of MMT.  There is no debate about the technical details of the argument, but there are disagreements about their policy suggestions, especially the job guarantee.  I'll let you decide who the moron is.... 

[GG]

11 minutes ago, TPS said:

When you read it, you'll see that much of my argument with GG is based on an understanding of MMT.  There is no debate about the technical details of the argument, but there are disagreements about their policy suggestions, especially the job guarantee.  I'll let you decide who the moron is.... 

 

Yes, technical details similar to 2 guys being QBs, wearing a helmet, receiving a snap, and dropping back to pass the ball.  The technical details are identical.   The execution, not so much.

 

If the theory was correct, it would apply equally to USA as it would to Argentina.

[TPS]

10 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Yes, technical details similar to 2 guys being QBs, wearing a helmet, receiving a snap, and dropping back to pass the ball.  The technical details are identical.   The execution, not so much.

 

If the theory was correct, it would apply equally to USA as it would to Argentina.

Says someone who probably hasn't bothered to read the theory...otherwise you would know what they say about different institutional structures related to monetary and fiscal policies, and exchange rate regimes.

[GG]

4 minutes ago, TPS said:

Says someone who probably hasn't bothered to read the theory...otherwise you would know what they say about different institutional structures related to monetary and fiscal policies, and exchange rate regimes.

 

So it's a bull#### theory.  It basically says that if you're blessed to be a reserve currency you can issue unlimited debt.   It assumes that the markets will continue to accept your currency as the global standard forever.   Like a vote of confidence to Bank of England in 1910.

 

 

[TPS]

16 minutes ago, GG said:

 

So it's a bull#### theory.  It basically says that if you're blessed to be a reserve currency you can issue unlimited debt.   It assumes that the markets will continue to accept your currency as the global standard forever.   Like a vote of confidence to Bank of England in 1910.

 

 

Speaking of bull####, you stated in a previous post, "My entire point is that not all countries are the SAME."  

Yet, you now claim that a theory that says "the US and Argentina are NOT the same" is bull####.  Interesting....

[Tiberius]

So Trump enthusiastically supports a no deal Brexit? That will cause some serious problems. Recession is also certain if that happens.

[Tiberius]

Trump knows what he is doing? AOC could easily do a better job than this complete clown

 

Quote

 

FRANKFURT — In ominous signs of the damage being done by the trade war between China and the United States, data released on Wednesday indicated that the German economy is hurtling toward recession and that growth at Chinese factories is slowing at a pace not seen in almost two decades.

Germany’s economy shrank 0.1 percent from April through June and it has been treading water for the past year, the government’s official statistics agency said. Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that the economy would continue to shrink in the current quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession.

In China, factory output in July fell to its slowest pace in 17 years, according to government data. Although the Chinese economy posted trade figures that were stronger than expected last week, the industrial output figure was another sign that China’s overall growth rate continues to slow under the weight of Beijing’s trade war with the United States and the country’s debt problems.

It is not surprising that China and Germany are stumbling under the weight of the trade pressures. China is the world’s largest exporter of goods and services, just ahead of the United States, and Germany is No. 3. Both have been countries hit directly by President Trump’s tariffs, and more broadly by the disruption to the global economy that the trade conflict has caused.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/business/german-economy.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[TPS]

21 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Of course he did, it was never a question of what was going to happen there.

Is anyone else getting sick of a sideways market for the last two years..i know I am

 

26,616 when tax law went into effect...26,300 now..and a deficit that has exploded, and the R word getting used more and more

 

 

Yay Trump economy!!!!!

 

 

 

 

If Trump reacts to anything, it's the stock markets.  I'm sure he will hurl more disparaging tweets at Powell about lowering interest rates (and the Fed most likely will), but this is all on Trump.  It will be interesting to see how he responds to today's "signal".....

[row_33]

It can lose many more thousand points and be back to Obama’s greatest ever economic miracle

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

6 minutes ago, TPS said:

If Trump reacts to anything, it's the stock markets.  I'm sure he will hurl more disparaging tweets at Powell about lowering interest rates (and the Fed most likely will), but this is all on Trump.  It will be interesting to see how he responds to today's "signal".....

 

 

 

[TH3]

Hey - If the stock market reverts over the next 12 months....at least DT can run on his bank of promises and claims made and kept: Wall built and Mexico paid for it✔️, budget balanced✔️, national debt paid off✔️, ACA repealed and replaced with something better ✔️ and ✔️, illegal immigration under control✔️, Korean peninsula denuclearized ✔️, opiate problem solved✔️, trade balance with China down✔️, NAFTA renegotiated and enacted ✔️, new trade deal with China✔️.

 

All than and gerrymandering taken care of✔️ - Russians rebuked and tamped down when it comes to election middling ✔️...

 

I mean that pretty much will make his win loss record 13-1

[TPS]

44 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

 

Btw, if the route continues, I can see the FED dropping rates by 50 basis points very, very soon.

The 30-year rate is approaching the 3-month rate....

[ALF]

32 minutes ago, TPS said:

Btw, if the route continues, I can see the FED dropping rates by 50 basis points very, very soon.

The 30-year rate is approaching the 3-month rate....

 

With present tariffs  , would 0% fed rates cause inflation ?