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Taylor 12th in Total QBR through week 14...


Big Turk

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Such a silly stat. Any stat where Taylor is ahead of Big Ben, Carr, and Russell Wilson is just crazy.

 

There have been a lot of games this year that they have been downright bad in for long stretches...Carr has been bad in a lot of the games until the 4th quarter so its not all that surprising to be honest...would I rather have Taylor than either of those 3? No.

 

But those 3 players have been pretty inconsistent for much of this year as well...Roethlesberger has killed me in fantasy this year, for instance...he wasn't putting up much more than 18-20 points in most games...

Edited by matter2003
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There have been a lot of games this year that they have been downright bad in for long stretches...Carr has been bad in a lot of the games until the 4th quarter so its not all that surprising to be honest...would I rather have Taylor than either of those 3? No.

 

But those 3 players have been pretty inconsistent for much of this year as well...Roethlesberger has killed me in fantasy this year, for instance...he wasn't putting up much more than 18-20 points in most games...

Those guys have to carry their teams. Like if they don't put up 25+ points, their team is probably my going to lose. They have completely different jobs than Taylor.

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Interesting...

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

 

He was 7th last year for comparison...

 

70.3 versus 65.9 this year...

 

I thought QBR had been discredited as a meaningful stat?

 

It had its critics from the start:

"Further controversy erupted when the Total QBR system gave the Denver Broncos' Tim Tebow a higher rating than the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers in their respective Week 5 contests in 2011. Noting that Rodgers completed 26 of 39 passes for 396 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, while Tebow completed four of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown, and six rushes for 38 yards and a touchdown, in a loss to the San Diego Chargers, Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com wrote that he'll "continue to ignore ESPN’s Total QBR stat."[12] Rodgers himself was surprised: "I saw the [QBR stats] and chuckled to myself. I played a full game, [Tebow] played the half. He completed four passes, I completed 26. I think it incorporates QB runs as well ... The weighting of it doesn't make a whole lot of sense."[13]"

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I thought QBR had been discredited as a meaningful stat?

 

It had its critics from the start:

"Further controversy erupted when the Total QBR system gave the Denver Broncos' Tim Tebow a higher rating than the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers in their respective Week 5 contests in 2011. Noting that Rodgers completed 26 of 39 passes for 396 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, while Tebow completed four of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown, and six rushes for 38 yards and a touchdown, in a loss to the San Diego Chargers, Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com wrote that he'll "continue to ignore ESPNs Total QBR stat."[12] Rodgers himself was surprised: "I saw the [QBR stats] and chuckled to myself. I played a full game, [Tebow] played the half. He completed four passes, I completed 26. I think it incorporates QB runs as well ... The weighting of it doesn't make a whole lot of sense."[13]"

Tebow >>>>> Rodgers

 

Certain stats just don't work in football. I think a stat that shows how much a qb has to carry a team is important. Drew Brees knows he has to score 30 points a game because his defense is terrible. On the flip side, Russell Wilson knows if can score 17+, he must likely win most games.

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Those guys have to carry their teams. Like if they don't put up 25+ points, their team is probably my going to lose. They have completely different jobs than Taylor.

Huh?

 

What do you think Taylor has done?

 

Buffalo has scored 358 points this year.

 

Only Oakland has scored more of those 3 teams. They have 377, Pittsburgh has 341, and Seattle has 298...

 

Bills have scored 25+ points 9 times...

 

Again, only Oakland has scored 25+ more times at 10...Seattle is at 7 and Pittsburgh is at 6...

 

Bills D has given up more points than all those teams except Oakland, which is why this might be a flash in the pan type of year for them...they have won a lot of close, late games and typically you see certain teams do that in a season but don't follow it up the next year...Carolina last year did it, now they lose those games...Chicago did it under Kyle Orton one year going 13-3 but then fell back to average or bewlo average record the next year...same with Green Bay and Don Majkowski back in the day...the Cardiac Pack they were nicknamed...that model of winning isn't sustainable year to year, so unless their defense gets tightened up significantly they are looking at falling back to 8-8 or 9-7 next year...

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There have been a lot of games this year that they have been downright bad in for long stretches...Carr has been bad in a lot of the games until the 4th quarter so its not all that surprising to be honest...would I rather have Taylor than either of those 3? No.

 

But those 3 players have been pretty inconsistent for much of this year as well...Roethlesberger has killed me in fantasy this year, for instance...he wasn't putting up much more than 18-20 points in most games...

 

Tyrod's ability to produce big plays/TD's with his feet kinda' keeps him from having utterly futile days we'd see on occasion from guys like Fitz/Trent.

 

He hasn't been "found out" on film or anything. Defenses have put a bit more focus on defending the sidelines this year but while the windows are a bit smaller they are still there.

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Tyrod's ability to produce big plays/TD's with his feet kinda' keeps him from having utterly futile days we'd see on occasion from guys like Fitz/Trent.

 

He hasn't been "found out" on film or anything. Defenses have put a bit more focus on defending the sidelines this year but while the windows are a bit smaller they are still there.

They also prevent us from having truly "bad" days on offense like a lot of teams do when their QB isn't throwing the ball well...we have only had 3 games this year when we haven't scored 20 points or more, which I have to believe is one of the best in the NFL...its just too bad the D hasn't played up to par very often this year...

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They also prevent us from having truly "bad" days on offense like a lot of teams do when their QB isn't throwing the ball well...we have only had 3 games this year when we haven't scored 20 points or more, which I have to believe is one of the best in the NFL...its just too bad the D hasn't played up to par very often this year...

That is a good point. Taylor definitely seems to have a decent floor. I just worry he doesn't really have much of a ceiling.

 

It's depressing to think if we fall behind by a touchdown or the run game isn't working, we're dead.

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32nd passing attack in the NFL and we're proud that he's not even in the top 10 of the most meaningless stat ever created.

 

Are you guys even watching the games? If you are, how many times in a row do you need to see our QB completely get shut down with the game on the line?

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They also prevent us from having truly "bad" days on offense like a lot of teams do when their QB isn't throwing the ball well...we have only had 3 games this year when we haven't scored 20 points or more, which I have to believe is one of the best in the NFL...its just too bad the D hasn't played up to par very often this year...

 

 

Tyrod was very productive but clearly flawed last year and instead of making adding weapons to his arsenal the top priority they subtracted and expected him to do more with less.

 

The additions were focused......naturally.......on Rex's pride and joy defense.

 

The right thing to do was find a way to get a big 1A quality WR across from Watkins and let Tyrod develop within the system doing the two things he does very well.......throw deep and orchestrate a running game.

 

It's plausible at least that after a 2-3 full seasons in the same offense he could improve wrt to knowing where and when to go with the football on intermediate throws.

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32nd passing attack in the NFL and we're proud that he's not even in the top 10 of the most meaningless stat ever created.

 

Are you guys even watching the games? If you are, how many times in a row do you need to see our QB completely get shut down with the game on the line?

I'd counter by saying how many games do other QBs not even get to that point because they are getting beat 30-3 or something like that? Even the good teams...Pittsburgh got blown out 34-3 against Philly...Seattle just got manhandled by Green Bay like 38-10 or something...

 

when was the last time the Bills got completely destroyed and blown out like that even when the offense isn't playing particularly well...you could point to the Patriot game but even that was a 2 score game...it rarely happens

 

In fact...the Bills have lost only 3 times by more than one score in games Taylor played in, none of those by more than 2 scores...and that included a Giants game when they had 2 TD's called back on questionable penalties, and after the Giant's RB stepped ot of bounds clearly on replay on that pass to the RB where Bradham missed a tackle for a 3 yard loss...

that's pretty good compared to most teams in the league..probably top 5 or top 10...we just need to figure out ways to win those games...whether its from the offense scoring, the defense stopping or the special teams winning the game...

Edited by matter2003
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32nd passing attack in the NFL and we're proud that he's not even in the top 10 of the most meaningless stat ever created.

 

Are you guys even watching the games? If you are, how many times in a row do you need to see our QB completely get shut down with the game on the line?

 

Do you know how high Greg Roman's offenses have ranked for passing attacks?

 

2011 - ranked 29

2012 - ranked 23

2013 - ranked 30

2014 - ranked 30

2015 - ranked 28

2016 - ranked 31 so far

 

Yep. That is clearly 100% Tyrod's fault.

 

Stop pretending this is an awesome passing offense that Tyrod simply can't execute. No quarterback has ever executed a Greg Roman passing attack to any meaningful success. No quarterback ever. In 6 years. Not one.

 

In fact the words Greg Roman and Passing Attack are Oxymorons.

 

But yeah. Tyrod sucks. Cut him. Let's replace him with some random schlep off the street. They will be better for sure. Any rookie will do. Doh!

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Do you know how high Greg Roman's offenses have ranked for passing attacks?

 

2011 - ranked 29

2012 - ranked 23

2013 - ranked 30

2014 - ranked 30

2015 - ranked 28

2016 - ranked 31 so far

 

Yep. That is clearly 100% Tyrod's fault.

 

Stop pretending this is an awesome passing offense that Tyrod simply can't execute. No quarterback has ever executed a Greg Roman passing attack to any meaningful success. No quarterback ever. In 6 years. Not one.

 

In fact the words Greg Roman and Passing Attack are Oxymorons.

 

But yeah. Tyrod sucks. Cut him. Let's replace him with some random schlep off the street. They will be better for sure. Any rookie will do. Doh!

So...now Tyrod was put into a position to fail? I'm honestly struggling to keep up with these excuses.

I'd counter by saying how many games do other QBs not even get to that point because they are getting beat 30-3 or something like that? Even the good teams...Pittsburgh got blown out 34-3 against Philly...Seattle just got manhandled by Green Bay like 38-10 or something...

 

when was the last time the Bills got completely destroyed and blown out like that even when the offense isn't playing particularly well...you could point to the Patriot game but even that was a 2 score game...it rarely happens

 

In fact...the Bills have lost only 3 times by more than one score in games Taylor played in, none of those by more than 2 scores...and that included a Giants game when they had 2 TD's called back on questionable penalties, and after the Giant's RB stepped ot of bounds clearly on replay on that pass to the RB where Bradham missed a tackle for a 3 yard loss...

that's pretty good compared to most teams in the league..probably top 5 or top 10...we just need to figure out ways to win those games...whether its from the offense scoring, the defense stopping or the special teams winning the game...

Tyrod is great because he rarely gets blown out? Isn't that just the same thing as praising him for his lack of interceptions while ignoring his lack of touchdowns?

 

The style of play might be ultra conservative just to keep us in it, but when we're down and the other team knows its time to pass he is dreadful. Same situation, Derek Carr thrives. It's hard to defend the QB that keeps it close but can't find a way to overcome deficits.

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Taylor is 32nd in pass attempts. Do the math what would his YPA need to be to be at the middle of yardage rankings?

 

The way he is over throwing receivers this year , and not seeing open receivers, more attempts could be brutal, as in 3 and out.

Edited by ALF
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So...now Tyrod was put into a position to fail? I'm honestly struggling to keep up with these excuses.

 

Well he certainly isn't in an environment where he or any other QB not named Tom Brady is going to put up big passing numbers. In fact, he is not in an offense where decent quarterbacks are going to put up even average passing numbers.

 

Face it. You can't even refute these numbers.

 

Roman's offenses' passing rating over his entire career as an offensive coordinator

2011 - ranked 29

2012 - ranked 23

2013 - ranked 30

2014 - ranked 30

2015 - ranked 28

2016 - ranked 31 so far

Yep. All Tyrod's fault.

You can't talk your way around those stats.

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Interesting...

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

 

He was 7th last year for comparison...

 

70.3 versus 65.9 this year...

 

 

Shows the error built into statistics.

 

There is always Truth lost in translation as you go from what actually happens on the field to a statistic.

 

It's an inaccurate way to try and assess who is doing what and how well.

 

It's a lot easier to just focus on Tyrod and watch him play football. Will show you all you need to know.

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Well he certainly isn't in an environment where he or any other QB not named Tom Brady is going to put up big passing numbers. In fact, he is not in an offense where decent quarterbacks are going to put up even average passing numbers.

 

Face it. You can't even refute these numbers.

 

Roman's offenses' passing rating over his entire career as an offensive coordinator

2011 - ranked 29

2012 - ranked 23

2013 - ranked 30

2014 - ranked 30

2015 - ranked 28

2016 - ranked 31 so far

Yep. All Tyrod's fault.

You can't talk your way around those stats.

 

I am off the tyrod bandwagon and have been for five weeks...BUT, this argument does hold water regardless of how people feel about TT. An offense that has never produced an aerial attack and we expect him to light it up in the air?

 

Now...Polish Dave...how do you account for the fact that we have all seen WR's / TE's wide open on the field and TT not finding them? That cannot be a product of Roman's poor design, can it? Is the system designed to miss open players? I cannot see how that is possible.

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The way he is over throwing receivers this year , and not seeing open receivers, more attempts could be brutal, as in 3 and out.

 

Extra attempts will probably produce same YPA, TD per attempt and INT per attempt and his passing yards and his position on passing yards charts will adjust accordingly. It really is simple math and not rocket science.

I am off the tyrod bandwagon and have been for five weeks...BUT, this argument does hold water regardless of how people feel about TT. An offense that has never produced an aerial attack and we expect him to light it up in the air?

 

Now...Polish Dave...how do you account for the fact that we have all seen WR's / TE's wide open on the field and TT not finding them? That cannot be a product of Roman's poor design, can it? Is the system designed to miss open players? I cannot see how that is possible.

 

How many of those open players are open because the play direction was already determined? If Tyrod rolling to the right are you counting WR on the far left and middle open as their defenders move toward the play? You expect him to roll right and throw across his body while doing so?

 

So we are clear. If and when the Bills change coordinators and run a traditional offense Tyrod will not be the QB for that offense. He is the horse for the course so to speak.

Edited by jms62
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Extra attempts will probably produce same YPA, TD per attempt and INT per attempt and his passing yards and his position on passing yards charts will adjust accordingly. It really is simple math and not rocket science.

How many of those open players are open because the play direction was already determined? If Tyrod rolling to the right are you counting WR on the far left and middle open as their defenders move toward the play? You expect him to roll right and throw across his body while doing so?

 

So we are clear. If and when the Bills change coordinators and run a traditional offense Tyrod will not be the QB for that offense. He is the horse for the course so to speak.

 

No I'm referring to sitting in the pocket and misses guys...its a routine joke in our season ticket section. No, none of us are offensive QB's or coordinators but we can see that there are guys open routinely and he does not see them. I see other QB's sit in the pocket and find open WR's...why can our guy not?

 

And to your last point...I can easily see a situation where Rex is kept, Lynn is kept as OC and institutes his own offense and Tyrod is still their QB...why is that not an option? (obviously Lynn would still be run first, but he is currently using Romans playbook and designs...I'm sure he has his own that he would implement - which would tell us if Taylor is truly being held back by the evidence that Roman does not know how to create an aerial offense)

Edited by PaattMaann
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Well he certainly isn't in an environment where he or any other QB not named Tom Brady is going to put up big passing numbers. In fact, he is not in an offense where decent quarterbacks are going to put up even average passing numbers.

 

Face it. You can't even refute these numbers.

 

Roman's offenses' passing rating over his entire career as an offensive coordinator

2011 - ranked 29

2012 - ranked 23

2013 - ranked 30

2014 - ranked 30

2015 - ranked 28

2016 - ranked 31 so far

Yep. All Tyrod's fault.

You can't talk your way around those stats.

Kinda hard for Romans offense to flourish when his QBs are Taylor and Kaepernick.

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No I'm referring to sitting in the pocket and misses guys...its a routine joke in our season ticket section. No, none of us are offensive QB's or coordinators but we can see that there are guys open routinely and he does not see them. I see other QB's sit in the pocket and find open WR's...why can our guy not?

 

And to your last point...I can easily see a situation where Rex is kept, Lynn is kept as OC and institutes his own offense and Tyrod is still their QB...why is that not an option? (obviously Lynn would still be run first, but he is currently using Romans playbook and designs...I'm sure he has his own that he would implement - which would tell us if Taylor is truly being held back by the evidence that Roman does not know how to create an aerial offense)

Kind of like Rex changing a defense that was working to implement his scheme cause he knows better. If Lynn changes the offense than the gamble is on him. Hard to think of him taking that risk with what amounts to this staffs final roll of the dice.

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Kind of like Rex changing a defense that was working to implement his scheme cause he knows better. If Lynn changes the offense than the gamble is on him. Hard to think of him taking that risk with what amounts to this staffs final roll of the dice.

 

I cannot imagine a situation, ever in football, where there is a coordinator change and that new coordinator uses some other guys offense EXCEPT for an in season change. Believe me, if Lynn is kept on as OC, he WILL change the offense to his offense.

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I am off the tyrod bandwagon and have been for five weeks...BUT, this argument does hold water regardless of how people feel about TT. An offense that has never produced an aerial attack and we expect him to light it up in the air?

 

Now...Polish Dave...how do you account for the fact that we have all seen WR's / TE's wide open on the field and TT not finding them? That cannot be a product of Roman's poor design, can it? Is the system designed to miss open players? I cannot see how that is possible.

 

You can't know why without knowing exactly what the play is and how Tyrod is being told to execute it. And NOBODY here knows that.

 

If the coaches thought he was not executing the plays as they are called, then I think they would have sat him (at least for part of a game) and let EJ try to do it. They haven't done that which tells me that they think Tyrod is doing at least okay in what those plays are designed to do.

 

Fans imagine that every NFL passing play is executed like backyard football where the QB drops back and surveys every receiver and chucks the ball to the most open guy. That isn't how it works. That only happens when there is a broken play. And once a play is broken, you can't expect perfect execution. You can't expect a QB to see every open guy in a broken play. Usually the field is cut in half because the qb is out of the pocket and on the run.

 

It is entirely possible and even very likely - that the passing game is too complicated by design or just poorly designed. History suggests it is one of those two or possibly both.

 

No Roman offense has ever had an average or better passing attack.

 

Kinda hard for Romans offense to flourish when his QBs are Taylor and Kaepernick.

 

You want a list? Here is a list of all the quarterbacks who couldn't get an effective passing attack going with Roman's offense:

 

Tyrod Taylor
EJ Manuel
Alex Smith
Colin Kaepernick
Colt McCoy
Blaine Gabbert
Troy Smith
Scott Tolzien
Josh Johnson
How many more quarterbacks do you want to rotate through a Roman system and watch fail as a passer before you shift your blame more towards the coach and the design of his system? He couldn't even get lucky and approach average with any of these guys.
If Roman was any good at all at designing a passing game, ANY good at all, don't you think he would have found a little success with at least one of those guys? His highest success in passing was getting to rank number 23 in the NFL. Dude's passing offenses fricken suck. It is irrefutable.
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You can't know why without knowing exactly what the play is and how Tyrod is being told to execute it. And NOBODY here knows that.

 

If the coaches thought he was not executing the plays as they are called, then I think they would have sat him (at least for part of a game) and let EJ try to do it. They haven't done that which tells me that they think Tyrod is doing at least okay in what those plays are designed to do.

 

Fans imagine that every NFL passing play is executed like backyard football where the QB drops back and surveys every receiver and chucks the ball to the most open guy. That isn't how it works. That only happens when there is a broken play. And once a play is broken, you can't expect perfect execution. You can't expect a QB to see every open guy in a broken play. Usually the field is cut in half because the qb is out of the pocket and on the run.

 

It is entirely possible and even very likely - that the passing game is too complicated by design or just poorly designed. History suggests it is one of those two or possibly both.

 

No Roman offense has ever had an average or better passing attack.

 

 

You want a list? Here is a list of all the quarterbacks who couldn't get an effective passing attack going with Roman's offense:

 

Tyrod Taylor
EJ Manuel
Alex Smith
Colin Kaepernick
Colt McCoy
Blaine Gabbert
Troy Smith
Scott Tolzien
Josh Johnson
How many more quarterbacks do you want to rotate through a Roman system and watch fail as a passer before you shift your blame more towards the coach and the design of his system? He couldn't even get lucky and approach average with any of these guys.
If Roman was any good at all at designing a passing game, ANY good at all, don't you think he would have found a little success with at least one of those guys? His highest success in passing was getting to rank number 23 in the NFL. Dude's passing offenses fricken suck. It is irrefutable.

 

 

That is not what I imagine...I imagine a QB dropping back in the pocket and going through his progressions to find an open target...and yes, sometimes these are half field reads based on pre-snap reads.

 

What I am saying, and know is true, is that every game there are multiple times where Tyrod drops back like other QBs in the league, has good to great protection with several seconds to make his reads and throw like other QBs in the league, but he does not actually find the open target that IS actually open like other QBs in the league do.

 

I agree no one here knows what the play call is designed to do specifically, or what Tyrod is being told to do. But I do know that every NFL offense has things called passing plays, where the QB has several options to work through to find the open target, and is expected to find and throw to that open target. I know that indeed our offense has these passing plays, and I know that I have routinely seen Tyrod not be able to locate that guy (not on broken plays, not on scrambles, not on designed one read/half field plays, but actual NFL passing plays where the onus is on the QB to make some reads and make the play) enough that it makes me worry he can never be the guy we would need him to be.

 

I still think your point about Roman offenses never producing even an average aerial attack is a great point. I lean towards the argument "we already know who Tyrod is" despite this point...but I can see the other side of "who knows what Tyrod can do with an actual passing offense"...I just have a hard time reconciling with what we all see on the field on Sundays when he IS asked to be a QB despite of all other factors.

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Interesting stats Polish Dave. I really don't want to see it all blown up again. Despite his shortcomings, without a couple crappy defensive performances against the jets and phins, the bills would make the playoffs.

I'd rather see them find a way to use TT as a transition until they hit on a draft pick. Starting over with some other re-tread will take them 3 steps back and none forward. I hate to say it, but give it all one more year...

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You can't know why without knowing exactly what the play is and how Tyrod is being told to execute it. And NOBODY here knows that.

 

If the coaches thought he was not executing the plays as they are called, then I think they would have sat him (at least for part of a game) and let EJ try to do it. They haven't done that which tells me that they think Tyrod is doing at least okay in what those plays are designed to do.

 

Fans imagine that every NFL passing play is executed like backyard football where the QB drops back and surveys every receiver and chucks the ball to the most open guy. That isn't how it works. That only happens when there is a broken play. And once a play is broken, you can't expect perfect execution. You can't expect a QB to see every open guy in a broken play. Usually the field is cut in half because the qb is out of the pocket and on the run.

 

It is entirely possible and even very likely - that the passing game is too complicated by design or just poorly designed. History suggests it is one of those two or possibly both.

 

No Roman offense has ever had an average or better passing attack.

 

 

You want a list? Here is a list of all the quarterbacks who couldn't get an effective passing attack going with Roman's offense:

 

Tyrod Taylor

EJ Manuel

Alex Smith

Colin Kaepernick

Colt McCoy

Blaine Gabbert

Troy Smith

Scott Tolzien

Josh Johnson

 

How many more quarterbacks do you want to rotate through a Roman system and watch fail as a passer before you shift your blame more towards the coach and the design of his system? He couldn't even get lucky and approach average with any of these guys.

 

If Roman was any good at all at designing a passing game, ANY good at all, don't you think he would have found a little success with at least one of those guys? His highest success in passing was getting to rank number 23 in the NFL. Dude's passing offenses fricken suck. It is irrefutable.

All those QB's suck and EJ still threw for more yards in 2 games than TT does in 4. Edited by jmc12290
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They also prevent us from having truly "bad" days on offense like a lot of teams do when their QB isn't throwing the ball well...we have only had 3 games this year when we haven't scored 20 points or more, which I have to believe is one of the best in the NFL...its just too bad the D hasn't played up to par very often this year...

Don't worry. After another year of using our first four draft picks on defense, it might be back to where it was before Rex gutted it.
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