cage Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Channeling your inner crayon eater? This thread has been a welcome relief of laughter.... so I commend the OP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 Again with respect: how is a Bills roster or season from 15 years ago predictive of what will happen on Sunday, next Sunday, or the one after? I think you mean ergo. I'm not going to calculate anything. I just enjoy watching football and can't appreciate negative thinking, or a thought process that says the Bills futility years ago is predictive of anything in the future. The algorithm predicts intangibles like crowd noise in December, prevailing wind patterns and officiating tendencies over 10-15 years. All of those factors play into the normalized coefficient which results in a probability. So, for instance, our dreadful playoff drought over 15 years increases the likelihood of losing out (and correspondingly increases the likelihood of the Titans, Browns and Bengals winning out). As such, in the event all factors work together, we can solidify the first pick by January and start our scouting process early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Bills can't get #1 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sir andrew Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 I like to brain sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watkins101 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 They can trade for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 They can trade for it Of course, but I'm talking about controlling our own destiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Of course, but I'm talking about controlling our own destiny.There's a kid at Michigan called Julius Peppers. Yep...I'll take him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I created an algorithm that allows you to input all types of metrics and data (similar to the ESPN Playoff calculator) and, in the end, gives you a projection of where we will draft next May 2017. I'll download the program and link it here shortly. Based on certain criteria, and if everything falls our way, we can still secure the first overall pick next year. Obviously, we need to lose out and end the season 6-10. Then, since Cleveland is one of our losses, they will have beaten us head to head. In that case, the next tie breaker is common opponents. We will have lost that category as well. We still need all the other 2, 3, and 4 win teams to win out. I don't want to play spoiler this year...I want to have what is rightfully ours. The #1 pick. For non-playoff teams draft position is based on record. The tiebreaker for teams with identical records is strength of schedule. If SOS is identical a coin flip determines order. Head to head games and games against common opponents do not factor into draft order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Isn't Cleveland already 0-12? If they win out they are 4-12 and Buffalo is 6-10. How do the Bills get the #1 pick? Forget it, he's rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 For non-playoff teams draft position is based on record. The tiebreaker for teams with identical records is strength of schedule. If SOS is identical a coin flip determines order. Head to head games and games against common opponents do not factor into draft order.Are you saying the code that I wrote is defective? The programming sequence takes all metrics and criteria into consideration. The fact that it projects an outcome adverse to your own wishes shouldn't detract from the credibility of the algorithm itself. Head to head and common opponents has a bearing on our ability to secure the #1 pick I assure you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Are you saying the code that I wrote is defective? The programming sequence takes all metrics and criteria into consideration. The fact that it projects an outcome adverse to your own wishes shouldn't detract from the credibility of the algorithm itself. Head to head and common opponents has a bearing on our ability to secure the #1 pick I assure you. Your hypothesis is perfect... except.... we traded away our #1 pick in the Sammy trade, I think until 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Let me state this as PC as possible, you are a feminine hygiene product! I don't think "tampon" is politically incorrect, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jobot Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Isn't Cleveland already 0-12? If they win out they are 4-12 and Buffalo is 6-10. How do the Bills get the #1 pick? HAHAHA what a sweet algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 That link is still suspiciously missing. What kinda self-created algorithm program ya got downloadin over there. Also the scenarios to figure out the first draft pick are way way less complicated than the playoffs haha. You don't need an algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I say this with respect: your math and computer skills are impressive, but I absolutely hate your kind of thinking. Where you say "if everything falls our way, we can still secure the first overall pick next year" I say, "if everything falls our way, we can still go deep into the playoffs". Thanks Bill. Wouldn't you rather us go 11-5, face the Chiefs or Broncos and beat them to get to the second level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Unfortunately this must be based on rules you've just made up in your head since W-L is the first tiebreaker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 There's a kid at Michigan called Julius Peppers. Yep...I'll take him. Who are the Bills taking at #1, McDavid or Eichel?? The guy in Michigan is named Jabrill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I created an algorithm that allows you to input all types of metrics and data (similar to the ESPN Playoff calculator) and, in the end, gives you a projection of where we will draft next May 2017. I'll download the program and link it here shortly. Based on certain criteria, and if everything falls our way, we can still secure the first overall pick next year. Obviously, we need to lose out and end the season 6-10. Then, since Cleveland is one of our losses, they will have beaten us head to head. In that case, the next tie breaker is common opponents. We will have lost that category as well. We still need all the other 2, 3, and 4 win teams to win out. I don't want to play spoiler this year...I want to have what is rightfully ours. The #1 pick. Wow, so we really are still playing meaningful games in December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 There's a kid at Michigan called Julius Peppers. Yep...I'll take him. You sir are no Crayonz! Nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 I don't think "tampon" is politically incorrect, man. Or douche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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