4th & Goal From The 1. TD Or FG?

[NoSaint]

 

Yeah, I saw that. I'm definitely in the "disagree" camp, too.

 

It's what rallies are made of, really.

 

And when momentum gets killed, it visibly knocks the wind out of the sails of people/teams.

A lot of the rally research points more towards dumb luck and coincidence (again, I don't think I've seen NFL recently)

[mannc]

How exactly has "the momentum myth" been thoroughly debunked?

 

i've been watching football a long time and have seen momentum shift in games many many many times.

 

A couple of examples for our own Bills. In 2013, Bills vs Bengals. Bills get 4th and 1 down on the Bengals 1 just before the 1/2. Thaddeus Lewis at QB. Bills go for it and get stuffed. Fired up Bengals drive 99 yards for the TD. We end up losing.

 

In a playoff game vs the Titans, Bills QB fumbles football out of back of EZ for a safety. Titans fans and players are super fired up and take the kick and score a TD. Thier ONLY TD of the game.

 

Analytics and stats work much better in baseball because it's one on one, batter vs pitcher. In football there it's 11 on 11 and the players change frequently.

 

So, I disagree with your assertion that momentum is a myth. Can you point to any evidence supporting your theory?

 

My opinion is that momentum is viewed as unimportant is made by people with thier head up thier stat sheet.

 

Emotions and momentum are super important in football IMHO.

I'll find the link. A couple questions though: If AZ seized the momentum by generating a 4th and 1 stop (probability, around 35-40%), how long would that momentum last? Until they have to punt from their own end zone? The rest of the quarter? The remaining 50 minutes of the game? And if the Bills scored a TD on 4th and goal (60-65%) chance, wouldn't that generate a lot more "momentum" than a sorry-ass 18-yard FG?? I call BS on your momentum argument.

 

Here you go: http://grantland.com/features/bill-barnwell-theory-momentum-football/

Edited September 26, 2016 by mannc

[PromoTheRobot]

It was important to get the points there. It was a good call.

[DC Tom]

This is why analytics was invented, and the math isn't even close. Going for it is the right call, regardless of what most coaches and fans would have done. In fact, the math says in that situation you go for the TD on 4th down anywhere inside the other team's 5-yard line.

 

The analytics judge the bulk limit, which tells you absolutely nothing about an individual situation, or an individual team, for that matter. What are the analytics for going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 for a team that ranks in the bottom third of the league rushing, and relies on a QB dive with their backup QB to convert previous 4th and 1 situations?

[mannc]

 

The analytics judge the bulk limit, which tells you absolutely nothing about an individual situation, or an individual team, for that matter. What are the analytics for going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 for a team that ranks in the bottom third of the league rushing, and relies on a QB dive with their backup QB to convert previous 4th and 1 situations?

The Bills are in fact a good rushing team and have the best running QB in the NFL--they should be very difficult to stop in that situation, certainly more difficult to stop than the average NFL team.

[reddogblitz]

I'll find the link. A couple questions though: If AZ seized the momentum by generating a 4th and 1 stop (probability, around 35-40%), how long would that momentum last? Until they have to punt from their own end zone? The rest of the quarter? The remaining 50 minutes of the game? And if the Bills scored a TD on 4th and goal (60-65%) chance, wouldn't that generate a lot more "momentum" than a sorry-ass 18-yard FG?? I call BS on your momentum argument.

Here you go: http://grantland.com/features/bill-barnwell-theory-momentum-football/

Thanks for posting this interesting article.

 

I can't say how long it would have lasted because they didn't get it. But it also comes and goes and swings back and forth in games.

 

As far as this article showing that the myth is "thoroughly de-bunked", not so fast. From your article:

 

I cant prove that momentum does or does not exist in sports, because its an arbitrary, abstract idea that you can mold into just about anything you want to tell the story youre looking to tell.

 

What did the statistics and analysis say about the he 2016 Bills vs the 2016 Arizona Cardinals in the 1st quarter?

 

This article is based on stats from 2 - 17 years ago.

 

Football is not played in a vacuum. It's played by people on the field and the emotions and state of mind of the players ON THE FIELD in the moment. Making decisions like this in real football games would be akin to figuring out which number to play in roulette by watching that board showing the past 10 numbers landed on IMHO. It's apples to oranges. Different teams, different situations, heck, the way the NFL is, different rules.

 

Just curious, do you think momentum and emotions played ZERO part in the world's biggest comenback by Frank Reich and the Bills? Or can it all be explained by statistics and analysis?

Edited September 26, 2016 by reddogblitz

[mannc]

Thanks for posting this interesting article.

 

I can't say how long it would have lasted because they didn't get it. But it also comes and goes and swings back and forth in games.

 

As far as this article showing that the myth is "thoroughly de-bunked", not so fast. From your article:

 

 

What did the statistics and analysis say about the he 2016 Bills vs the 2016 Arizona Cardinals in the 1st quarter?

 

This article is based on stats from 2 - 17 years ago.

 

Football is not played in a vacuum. It's played by people on the field and the emotions and state of mind of the players ON THE FIELD in the moment. Making decisions in real football games would be akin to figuring out which number to play in roulette by watching that board showing the past 10 numbers landed on IMHO. It's apples to oranges. Different teams, different situations, heck, the way the NFL is, different rules.

 

Just curious, do you think momentum and emotions n played ZERO part in the world's biggest comenback by Frank Reich and the Bills? Or it all be explained by statistics and analysis?

Let's put it this way, even if momentum exists, the loss of said momentum by boldly going for 7 points there and failing, would be negligible when you consider the fact that the Cards would be backed up on their own goal line in a loud, hostile stadium, not to mention the 7 points (and, presumably, positive momentum) that you stand to gain by punching it in, like a real football team.

[TallskiWallski83]

It was very early in the game and it was 0-0, I dont mind the call. You dont want to give away momentum by not converting and when youre up against an offensive powerhouse team like the cardinals every point counts. Our team was 0-2, has struggled mightily in short yardage situations, and the fans in the stands would totally become dejected if we didnt convert. Take the lead and defend it and build on it. Control the game flow...thats what we did and surprise, we won.

 

Edited September 26, 2016 by TallskiWallski83

[Marty McFly]

Get the points early in the game. FG was the right call IMO.

Yep. 0-0 gotta reward the defense and Offense with points. When you go for it and fail in those scenarios, the 3 points ALWAYS come back to haunt you in the 4th QT

Edited September 26, 2016 by Marty McFly

[Talley56]

I know we won anyway but I'm one of the few who feels like you have to go for it. Complacency = mediocrity but risk takers win championships.

[Gugny]

I know we won anyway but I'm one of the few who feels like you have to go for it. Complacency = mediocrity but risk takers win championships.

 

200:1 Super Bowl Odds playing 9:1 Super Bowl Odds put points on the board when they're available. If this was more of an "even matchup," I would have said go for it, too. But the Bills would have been silly to go for it - especially after the two failed 4th and 1 attempts vs. the Jets, in my opinion.

[CountryCletus]

what if they had scored a touchdown?

What if they didn't? This board would crash with ridicule.... If if's and but's were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas

[CardinalScotts]

first quarter no score you have to take the points there and get 3...play with a lead. Tempting but cant do it - IF we were good in short yardage and had a money play tougher decision but as we all know we struggle in short yardage. You have to reward the offense for the drive - can't go for it

Edited September 26, 2016 by CardinalScotts

[PolishDave]

I wanted them to go for it because I am sick and tired of playing good teams and getting outscored by them because we decided to settle for 3.

 

There are plenty of games (like games against the Patriots when Tom Brady is at QB) where you will lose a game by being too conservative.

 

So, if that situation happens again where it is 4th and 1 and the score is 0-0 and we are playing a high power offense team like the Pats - I say go for it.

 

Glad it worked out against the Cardinals. But I bet it bites them in the ass if they keep making the conservative choice in those situations against other teams with good offenses.

[RyanC883]

In most 4th and goal from the 1 situations (including this one), I'd go for it.

 

However, that's not to say that kicking the FG is particularly wrong. It's just not what I'd do.

 

I'm with you on this 100%. Show the defense you trust them after they stopped AZ a couple of times, and show the O-line or TT/WR you trust them by going for it. Didn't backfire, but the results of this poll would be totally different had the Bills lost by 3-4.

I wanted them to go for it because I am sick and tired of playing good teams and getting outscored by them because we decided to settle for 3.

 

There are plenty of games (like games against the Patriots when Tom Brady is at QB) where you will lose a game by being too conservative.

 

So, if that situation happens again where it is 4th and 1 and the score is 0-0 and we are playing a high power offense team like the Pats - I say go for it.

 

Glad it worked out against the Cardinals. But I bet it bites them in the ass if they keep making the conservative choice in those situations against other teams with good offenses.

 

Agree with this also. Dodged one yesterday. Can't do this. Coaches like Tomlin and McCarthy would have gone for it there. Coaches like Jauroun don't.

Edited September 26, 2016 by RyanC883

[KDIGGZ]

On one hand you want the first points of the game. On the other you are playing a high scoring offense so you need TD's. It was a toss up for me really. I would have gone for it. You can't anticipate 4 INT's and a botched FG for a TD

[Peace Frog]

I understand when people are saying take the points or you'll lose the momentum but a FG is not an automatic thing. Look at Carp: he missed another PAT. The Cardinals botched the snap on the FG try and it resulted in a 10 point swing.

[DC Tom]

The Bills are in fact a good rushing team and have the best running QB in the NFL--they should be very difficult to stop in that situation, certainly more difficult to stop than the average NFL team.

 

My point being that your blind reliance on "analytics" ignores the situational specifics that you just described.

[CodeMonkey]

I know we won anyway but I'm one of the few who feels like you have to go for it. Complacency = mediocrity but risk takers win championships.

Risk takers also lose championships.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZSqjfYaX4M

[mannc]

 

My point being that your blind reliance on "analytics" ignores the situational specifics that you just described.

No, I've never advocated "blind reliance on analytics". You suggested that Rex should have ignored the math because the Bills are a lousy short yardage team, which I disputed.

 

I recognize that every situation is different, but the math in favor of trying to score the TD here was overwhelming and the situational specifics favored it even more. According to most analytics logarithms, you should go for it on fourth and one, no matter where you are on the field, but most especially on the goal line, since failing to convert there leaves your opponent backed up into its own end zone.

 

And while we're at it, we should have a debate about whether the Bills should ever kick an extra point, given Carpenter's struggles and the team's ability to come up with difficult to defend two-point conversion packages due to Tyrod's running ability.