Kelly the Dog Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Just the varied responses and the basically 50-50 vote of posters wanting to kick and wanting to go for it shows that it was not a no brainer decision. Especially because fans are more willing to want to go for it than coaches, in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estelle Getty Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Field goal all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirtbag Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 They are not good in short yardage. Not sure why you would equate two TDs as the same thing as fourth and one from the one. Again, I would have gone for it. It's not at all a no brainer. i'm not sure why you're arguing for the fg if you think it was the wrong call. and my argument was simply to point out that we shouldn't assume that we couldn't get the td if we decided to run (much less -- god forbid -- pass). what does it being a "no brainer" have to do with anything? there's risk with everything. lots of coaches, fans, and tv analysts believe you should always punt/kick a fg on fouth down unless there are 2 minutes left. that doesn't make it the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Just the varied responses and the basically 50-50 vote of posters wanting to kick and wanting to go for it shows that it was not a no brainer decision. Especially because fans are more willing to want to go for it than coaches, in general.This is why analytics was invented, and the math isn't even close. Going for it is the right call, regardless of what most coaches and fans would have done. In fact, the math says in that situation you go for the TD on 4th down anywhere inside the other team's 5-yard line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 If the defense is playing so well, wouldn't it be great to pin AZ back on its own one-yard line, even if you don't score the TD? Wouldn't you trust the D to force a punt, then get the ball back in AZ territory? No. See my comment about shifting momentum. The emotional part and momentum are huge in football. They don't call it the Big Mo for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 No. See my comment about shifting momentum. The emotional part and momentum are huge in football. They don't call it the Big Mo for nothing.And the "momentum myth" has also been thoroughly de-bunked by statistical analysis. At any rate, I'm not sure how backing the other team up to their one-yard line would shift the momentum to the Cardinals anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 (edited) In most 4th and goal from the 1 situations (including this one), I'd go for it. However, that's not to say that kicking the FG is particularly wrong. It's just not what I'd do. I'll chalk it up not as wrong but as less right. The numbers are close enough that you don't hang the coach for trusting his gut but generally speaking - to go for it is the better choice Edited September 26, 2016 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 i'm not sure why you're arguing for the fg if you think it was the wrong call. and my argument was simply to point out that we shouldn't assume that we couldn't get the td if we decided to run (much less -- god forbid -- pass). what does it being a "no brainer" have to do with anything? there's risk with everything. lots of coaches, fans, and tv analysts believe you should always punt/kick a fg on fouth down unless there are 2 minutes left. that doesn't make it the right call. No brainer means everything. If it's a no brainer than there is no excuse not to go for it. If it's a 55-45 proposition or something close to that, you make a decision based on how the game is going, where you are playing, how your team is playing, what your record is, etc. it enters into the equation. One game you may kick, another game in similar circumstances you may go for it. The reason I wanted to go for it was the Bills were horrible in their first two games. We were at home. if we score, we give huge confidence to the team, and the crowd goes nuts. But I didn't think it was a no brainer. I totally understood why a coach would kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 (edited) And the "momentum myth" has also been thoroughly de-bunked by statistical analysis. At any rate, I'm not sure how backing the other team up to their one-yard line would shift the momentum to the Cardinals anyway.The last I saw drive start stats - at the 1 has slightly negative average point and the 25 was like 1.5-2 points higher. IE a fg followed by touchback stats out to a 1.5 point play while a TD followed by touchback would be like 5.5 and a failed td is like .5 points still (going off memory and don't recall sample size and real napkin math here) The odds in going for it make it a favorite by a bit but.... Edited September 26, 2016 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Rex got this one right, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 This is why analytics was invented, and the math isn't even close. Going for it is the right call, regardless of what most coaches and fans would have done. In fact, the math says in that situation you go for the TD on 4th down anywhere inside the other team's 5-yard line. Yea - on an icy statistical analysis it's a clear choice. A coach turning into a bettor might beat the odds technically though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma Pecoraro Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 No brainer means everything. If it's a no brainer than there is no excuse not to go for it. If it's a 55-45 proposition or something close to that, you make a decision based on how the game is going, where you are playing, how your team is playing, what your record is, etc. it enters into the equation. One game you may kick, another game in similar circumstances you may go for it. The reason I wanted to go for it was the Bills were horrible in their first two games. We were at home. if we score, we give huge confidence to the team, and the crowd goes nuts. But I didn't think it was a no brainer. I totally understood why a coach would kick. Cowardice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Rex got this one right, IMO. And his decision actually shocked me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 And his decision actually shocked me! I was waiting for EJ's hard count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 And the "momentum myth" has also been thoroughly de-bunked by statistical analysis. At any rate, I'm not sure how backing the other team up to their one-yard line would shift the momentum to the Cardinals anyway. How exactly has "the momentum myth" been thoroughly debunked? i've been watching football a long time and have seen momentum shift in games many many many times. A couple of examples for our own Bills. In 2013, Bills vs Bengals. Bills get 4th and 1 down on the Bengals 1 just before the 1/2. Thaddeus Lewis at QB. Bills go for it and get stuffed. Fired up Bengals drive 99 yards for the TD. We end up losing. In a playoff game vs the Titans, Bills QB fumbles football out of back of EZ for a safety. Titans fans and players are super fired up and take the kick and score a TD. Thier ONLY TD of the game. Analytics and stats work much better in baseball because it's one on one, batter vs pitcher. In football there it's 11 on 11 and the players change frequently. So, I disagree with your assertion that momentum is a myth. Can you point to any evidence supporting your theory? My opinion is that momentum is viewed as unimportant is made by people with thier head up thier stat sheet. Emotions and momentum are super important in football IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Emotions and momentum are super important in football IMHO. I can't think of a sport in which they're not super important. Individual or team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Though we all like the possibility of going for it and getting at least 6 on the board, taking the 3 is the right call. If we don't get it maybe the momentum of the whole game changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 How exactly has "the momentum myth" been thoroughly debunked? i've been watching football a long time and have seen momentum shift in games many many many times. A couple of examples for our own Bills. In 2013, Bills vs Bengals. Bills get 4th and 1 down on the Bengals 1 just before the 1/2. Thaddeus Lewis at QB. Bills go for it and get stuffed. Fired up Bengals drive 99 yards for the TD. We end up losing. In a playoff game vs the Titans, Bills QB fumbles football out of back of EZ for a safety. Titans fans and players are super fired up and take the kick and score a TD. Thier ONLY TD of the game. Analytics and stats work much better in baseball because it's one on one, batter vs pitcher. In football there it's 11 on 11 and the players change frequently. So, I disagree with your assertion that momentum is a myth. Can you point to any evidence supporting your theory? My opinion is that momentum is viewed as unimportant is made by people with thier head up thier stat sheet. Emotions and momentum are super important in football IMHO. I'm assuming that he's referring to stuff similar to the "hot hand" research in basketball that the last shot doesn't actually effect the odds of the next. The perception being a combo of our own perception and tv selling story lines I'd guess that you could do similar stats on football with last drive/next drive but haven't seen it that I recall offhand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I can't think of a sport in which they're not super important. Individual or team. I can't either Gug, but I was responding to mannc who maintains it is a myth that has been "thoroughly de-bunked" by stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I can't either Gug, but I was responding to mannc who maintains it is a myth that has been "thoroughly de-bunked" by stats. Yeah, I saw that. I'm definitely in the "disagree" camp, too. It's what rallies are made of, really. And when momentum gets killed, it visibly knocks the wind out of the sails of people/teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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