A Look Back at the Stevie Johnson Trade

[Dorkington]

I don't think he would have been all that useful with EJ or Tyrod.... *maybe* Orton, but I don't think our offense was really designed for Stevies routes.

Here is a chart comparing the top receivers in the league over the last 9 weeks:

http://i0.wp.com/nysportsbiz.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/WR-EXCEL-SHEET.png?resize=768%2C223

His performance stands right there with anyone despite less opportunities. Tasker has an agenda that Jauronimo has pretty much destroyed him for. He says lots of nothing and think that the "lots" makes it substance.

 

For those that didn't click the link...

 

Thing that stands out to me, Sammy has the second highest catch %, and the highest yards per reception.

 

But, according to our resident expert, Sammy is a bust.

[QB Bills]

Stevie is a unique talent in that those talents aren't quite measurable. He's not especially fast, strong or tall. So of course you're going to have some people saying he's no good because he doesn't fit into one of those three categories.

 

The guy put up three straight 1,000 yard seasons with fitzpicksix as his QB. And then they went from a crap QB to one that was ten times worse with ej. I'd love to see what he could do on this team as a slot receicer, assuming they open up the playbook for Tyrod.

 

And the Watkins trade was a good one in retrospect. Not necessarily because of the value nor the selection (I would have rather taken Mack). But simply because Whaley and co were going to blow the later pick by taking Ebron instead of Beckham.

[SoulMan]

SJ was a liability. Bad penalties, bad drops. Move on.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Stevie Johnson: 10 games, 45 Rec, 497 Yds, 3 TDs, 1 Fum

Robert Woods: 14 games, 47 Rec, 552 Yds, 3 TDs, 2 Fum

 

I'm not sure how anyone can say that the first guy listed above sucks and wasn't worth keeping, but the second one deserves to be our #2 WR.

Cap # 1st of all. SD throws the football a lot more. IN SF which happened to be the same OC he had 35 catches in 13 games.

[Dorkington]

Alright, so I wanted to take a look at just how much of a bust Sammy Watkins is, since that seems to be the going opinion (or you know, one person yelling loudly and repeatedly). First off lets set this up:

 

Bills Team Ranks:

 

Passing Attempts: 31st

Passing Completions: 30th

Passing Yards: 28th

Net Yards/Attempt: 13th

 

We're clearly a run first offense, but when we pass, we're pretty efficient as a whole.

I took the top 50 players as far as catches, here are Sammy's ranks in various categories:

 

Receptions: 50th

Targets 45th

Catch %: 32nd

Yards/Reception: 1st

Yards/Game: 10th

 

Ok, so a bit of a mix when it comes to totals. I can see why people would be disappointed looking at things in a vacuum. But what about his value relative to our offensive mix? Is he held back by a run first offense? How important is Sammy to our passing attack?

 

Stats relative to totals

 

Pass Target Percentage: 21st

Pass Yards Percentage: 10th

Pass TD Percentage: 6th

 

What does this tell me overall? He's a top 10 talent, and extremely efficient. Oh, and he's tied for 2nd youngest at 22 years of age.

 

I can understand being disappointed in his *totals*, but its pretty clear by either watching the game, or examining the numbers, that he's a very large/important part of our offensive attack.

Edited July 13, 2016 by Dorkington

[....lybob]

Groin injuries took away his explosive change of direction which was his best attribute, I think it was a decent trade if you don't think SJ was going to return to form - I'm always of a mixed mind when players continue playing injured, I have to wonder how much additional damage SJ did to himself hobbling around the field in a brave but futile attempt to keep the Bills going.

[MyHorseAteTheKid]

I hoped he would go on to have a great career, but that didn't happen...

[jr1]

the guy from the Toyota commercial > Stevie

[eball]

Stevie Johnson: 10 games, 45 Rec, 497 Yds, 3 TDs, 1 Fum

Robert Woods: 14 games, 47 Rec, 552 Yds, 3 TDs, 2 Fum

 

I'm not sure how anyone can say that the first guy listed above sucks and wasn't worth keeping, but the second one deserves to be our #2 WR.

 

BarleyNY, it's been well established that Woods played hurt the entire year, in a "run first" offense with a first year starting QB. Oh, and there's that little thing about Stevie playing with an All-Pro at QB.

 

In other words, I don't think this sort of a comparison carries much weight in the discussion.

[Webster Guy]

Im not a fan of trading up for a WR, no matter how good Watkins becomes. I wont support the move. Trading Stevie however was a good move. Time to move on.

 

The Bills still do things that I dont understand, trading up for WRs and spending big assets on RBs.

You mean like how Atlanta traded a 2nd, 4th and next years 1st and 4th to Cleveland for Julio Jones and the Browns have ZERO players left on their team from that trade and Atlanta has an elite receiver that singlehandedly got them in the playoffs.

 

We paid less than that for the Sammy and now we have an elite, game changer out there that gets us wins.

 

Its ridiculous to say trading up for a WR is an enequivocal mistake. Depends on what you give up, what you get, what your needs are, draft board position--a million factors.

Edited July 13, 2016 by Webster Guy

[Buffalo_Stampede]

You mean like how Atlanta traded a 2nd, 4th and next years 1st and 4th to Cleveland for Julio Jones and the Browns have ZERO players left on their team from that trade and Atlanta has an elite receiver that singlehandedly got them in the playoffs.

 

We paid less than that for the Sammy and now we have an elite, game changer out there that gets us wins.

 

Its ridiculous to say trading up for a WR is an enequivocal mistake. Depends on what you give up, what you get, what your needs are, draft board position--a million factors.

You wont change my opinion. I would never trade up for a WR. Sit where you are and take one. Pretty much the only position I would trade up for is a QB, but even then its unrealistic. Not many teams in position to draft an elite QB are going to pass. Basically I probably never trade up.

[BarleyNY]

BarleyNY, it's been well established that Woods played hurt the entire year, in a "run first" offense with a first year starting QB. Oh, and there's that little thing about Stevie playing with an All-Pro at QB.

 

In other words, I don't think this sort of a comparison carries much weight in the discussion.

I totally disagree. SJ got 8 starts and played in 10 games with 593 offensive snaps. Woods got 9 starts and played in 14 games with 820 offensive snaps. Those extra snaps even up opportunities pretty well even with the run-first offense excuse. They look very comparable in my book for such a huge discrepancy in opinion. Beyond that, it seems dumb to think SJ couldn't help this team (regardless of whether or not he's better than Woods) since he'd easily be better than every other WR on the roster, Watkins obviously excepted. Honestly, you're comfortable with what our WR corps looks like now? How about when Watkins and/or Woods miss time?

[BarleyNY]

I don't think he would have been all that useful with EJ or Tyrod.... *maybe* Orton, but I don't think our offense was really designed for Stevies routes.

 

 

For those that didn't click the link...

 

Thing that stands out to me, Sammy has the second highest catch %, and the highest yards per reception.

 

But, according to our resident expert, Sammy is a bust.

 

That same link has Stevie Johnson rated much higher than Robert Woods.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

 

And, again, I'm not even arguing that I think SJ is better than EW. Just that it seems dumb to say there's a huge difference and that SJ wouldn't be a big help to the Bills.

Edited July 13, 2016 by BarleyNY

[eball]

I totally disagree. SJ got 8 starts and played in 10 games with 593 offensive snaps. Woods got 9 starts and played in 14 games with 820 offensive snaps. Those extra snaps even up opportunities pretty well even with the run-first offense excuse. They look very comparable in my book for such a huge discrepancy in opinion. Beyond that, it seems dumb to think SJ couldn't help this team (regardless of whether or not he's better than Woods) since he'd easily be better than every other WR on the roster, Watkins obviously excepted. Honestly, you're comfortable with what our WR corps looks like now? How about when Watkins and/or Woods miss time?

 

We'll just agree to disagree; I think Stevie was always overrated and Woods is underrated. And yes, I think that among the competitors at training camp we'll have a couple of guys emerge who can contribute.

That same link has Stevie Johnson rated much higher than Robert Woods.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

 

And, again, I'm not even arguing that I think SJ is better than EW. Just that it seems dumb to say there's a huge difference and that SJ wouldn't be a big help to the Bills.

 

Again -- Woods was injured for the entire year and gutted it out. Ask 32 GMs right now if they'd rather have Stevie Johnson or Robert Woods as their #2 WR.

[Jauronimo]

He's been a non-factor in the league for 3 seasons. Always seems to be hurt. Got rid of his contract too. Haven't thought about him for ages.

 

Who was that poster who hated Stevie with a passion and had a SJ13 crusade? Anyone recall?

Curitiba

[White Linen]

You wont change my opinion. I would never trade up for a WR. Sit where you are and take one. Pretty much the only position I would trade up for is a QB, but even then its unrealistic. Not many teams in position to draft an elite QB are going to pass. Basically I probably never trade up.

 

I don't think it's about wanting to change your opinion. It's about how wrong your opinion is.

[GunnerBill]

You wont change my opinion. I would never trade up for a WR. Sit where you are and take one. Pretty much the only position I would trade up for is a QB, but even then its unrealistic. Not many teams in position to draft an elite QB are going to pass. Basically I probably never trade up.

 

But put yourself in a mind-set of someone who isn't so wedded to a position of not trading up and ask yourself whether you can see a logic in the trade. That is what we should all be trying to do. Not saying "what would I do?" but ask "is there some evidence of a reasonable logic?"

[Kirby Jackson]

I think that Stevie is a better player than Robert Woods. He would have been a great #2 (assuming that is a role that he was willing to accept). The Bills seem pretty intent on getting younger at the WR position. How many times, this offseason, has one of us suggested Anquan Boldin (or someone like him)? I still think that they need a #2 but I am not sure Stevie would have readily accepted it. I voted "no" and "yes" above. It doesn't have to be Stevie to me (even though I like him) it has to be him or someone like hm. They still haven't added that guy.

[BarleyNY]

We'll just agree to disagree; I think Stevie was always overrated and Woods is underrated. And yes, I think that among the competitors at training camp we'll have a couple of guys emerge who can contribute.

 

Again -- Woods was injured for the entire year and gutted it out. Ask 32 GMs right now if they'd rather have Stevie Johnson or Robert Woods as their #2 WR.

You seem to be changing my arguement substantially. Please stick to what I said. I'm not arguing who's better, just that there isn't a huge difference between the two and that SJ could help the Bills. Respond to that.

 

The "played injured" card is very weak sauce. Wow, you know what a player on your team went through. How about SJ? Did you look to see if he played hurt? Every player has to suit up with injury of some kind during the season. Woods did. Johnson did. It's part of the game. Had Woods played substantially below what he previously did, then maybe injury could be a big consideration. But that wasn't the case.

[GunnerBill]

I think that Stevie is a better player than Robert Woods. He would have been a great #2 (assuming that is a role that he was willing to accept). The Bills seem pretty intent on getting younger at the WR position. How many times, this offseason, has one of us suggested Anquan Boldin (or someone like him)? I still think that they need a #2 but I am not sure Stevie would have readily accepted it. I voted "no" and "yes" above. It doesn't have to be Stevie to me (even though I like him) it has to be him or someone like hm. They still haven't added that guy.

 

And I am not sure Stevie's skillset really fits Roman.... but he is more talented than Robert Woods I agree.

[Agent 91]

I would have rather had Stevie than Percey Harvin in a heartbeat.

 

Forget that, I would have rather had Stevie than any other WR we have on this team. I won't say, that includes Sammy, but I'm pretty close. Sammy is look like a Nancy out there. This season will be a put up or shut up for him IMO. If he misses some games because of minor injuries... I'm no longer going to believe he's a future superstar. He'll be just another what if, coulda been typ of player.

For me its not the injuries. For me its the play after reception. He is too big and I thought too physical to just go down. He hasnt made anyone miss. His yards are mostly bombs. I thought he was gonna go out and make a few guys miss and bounce off of people.

[eball]

You seem to be changing my arguement substantially. Please stick to what I said. I'm not arguing who's better, just that there isn't a huge difference between the two and that SJ could help the Bills. Respond to that.

 

The "played injured" card is very weak sauce. Wow, you know what a player on your team went through. How about SJ? Did you look to see if he played hurt? Every player has to suit up with injury of some kind during the season. Woods did. Johnson did. It's part of the game. Had Woods played substantially below what he previously did, then maybe injury could be a big consideration. But that wasn't the case.

 

I think there is a pretty big difference between the two players, and what Woods does is more beneficial to the Bills than what Stevie does. For example, Woods embraced the run-blocking aspect of his role and excels at it -- hugely important in a run-oriented offense.

 

As for the "playing hurt" issue, yes, I agree all players do this to some degree. I think we'll see pretty quickly, though, that Woods was really hurt last season. He's also entering his prime and playing for a new contract.

[BarleyNY]

I think there is a pretty big difference between the two players, and what Woods does is more beneficial to the Bills than what Stevie does. For example, Woods embraced the run-blocking aspect of his role and excels at it -- hugely important in a run-oriented offense.

 

As for the "playing hurt" issue, yes, I agree all players do this to some degree. I think we'll see pretty quickly, though, that Woods was really hurt last season. He's also entering his prime and playing for a new contract.

For the record, I think SJ was the better player last season - but not by much. This season? It wouldn't surprise me if either SJ or EW was the better player. Beyond that, SJ is more expensive than EW and does not have the potential upside EW has. He is what he is at this point and it'll only be downhill from there. I could see why a coach would want SJ for the very short term, but would prefer EW for the long term. But it isn't an either/or question. I think the Bills would be better with both. A veteran like SJ would be good to have to push EW and the other young WRs. He'd be good to have as a 3 who could step up to a 2 - and for general depth. He's not the only guy like that out there and the Bills may yet pick one up to fill that role. Probably cheaper. I hope they do because I don't have the same high expectations you do for the WR corps. I see one very talented player in Watkins, but I worry about the injury bug biting. Woods as a #2 isn't a big threat. I think he'll be solid. Nor more, no less. After that it's just hope. SJ - or another solid vet - sitting there on the roster fighting with EW for the 2/3 WR spots would make me feel a lot better. I'd feel better about EW having earned the #2 spot, I'd feel better about the WR rotation and I'd feel better when a starter had to miss time.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Stevie Johnson: 10 games, 45 Rec, 497 Yds, 3 TDs, 1 Fum

Robert Woods: 14 games, 47 Rec, 552 Yds, 3 TDs, 2 Fum

 

I'm not sure how anyone can say that the first guy listed above sucks and wasn't worth keeping, but the second one deserves to be our #2 WR.

Easy- second guy is a better blocker, 20% more productive over the last 3 seasons and half the price.

 

Steive worked as the best guy in what was probably the NFLs worst recover group for 3 seasons and had and ideally matched offense and QB. Since then he's been performing closer to where his draft position speculated he would.

[eball]

For the record, I think SJ was the better player last season - but not by much. This season? It wouldn't surprise me if either SJ or EW was the better player. Beyond that, SJ is more expensive than EW and does not have the potential upside EW has. He is what he is at this point and it'll only be downhill from there. I could see why a coach would want SJ for the very short term, but would prefer EW for the long term. But it isn't an either/or question. I think the Bills would be better with both. A veteran like SJ would be good to have to push EW and the other young WRs. He'd be good to have as a 3 who could step up to a 2 - and for general depth. He's not the only guy like that out there and the Bills may yet pick one up to fill that role. Probably cheaper. I hope they do because I don't have the same high expectations you do for the WR corps. I see one very talented player in Watkins, but I worry about the injury bug biting. Woods as a #2 isn't a big threat. I think he'll be solid. Nor more, no less. After that it's just hope. SJ - or another solid vet - sitting there on the roster fighting with EW for the 2/3 WR spots would make me feel a lot better. I'd feel better about EW having earned the #2 spot, I'd feel better about the WR rotation and I'd feel better when a starter had to miss time.

 

I don't believe Stevie would bring anything more to the Bills this season than Greg Salas or Leonard Hankerson, but he'd bring the baggage of being a "former #1" to the locker room.

 

We just clearly have differing opinions on Stevie's value at this point in his career.

[Dorkington]

Okay Tasker's Ghost, 3rd and final chance to comment on Sammy's performance when put into context against his peers:

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/

 

You've ignored the previous 2 times I've posted it, so I won't hold my breath.

 

Bottom line: on a per-target basis when normalized for how often teams pass vs run, Sammy is as good as anyone not named Antonio Brown.

 

As to Stevie, $7M/year for a guy that would've been their #2 option in the passing game wasn't practical back when he was traded; now it's becoming the norm (see Marvin Jones and Mo Sanu).

I put it all out there for him as well, but I doubt there will be a response. I just don't see how anyone can dislike the performance that Sammy has put out yet.

[thebandit27]

I put it all out there for him as well, but I doubt there will be a response. I just don't see how anyone can dislike the performance that Sammy has put out yet.

Very unlikely to get a response.

 

IF there is one, it'll skew the topic if history is any indication--(i.e. the discussion about Buffalo's rushing offense, in which we HAD to remove QB rushing yards for Buffalo, but COULDN'T remove them for the rest of the league when comparing).

 

Regardless, the point is irrelevant. Other teams know who they need to stop. It's the reason that Belichick--whose number one priority every week is to stop what offenses do best--gave his pro bowl corner help against Sammy every play in Week 11.

[Kirby Jackson]

I put it all out there for him as well, but I doubt there will be a response. I just don't see how anyone can dislike the performance that Sammy has put out yet.

They decided that they didn't like the trade at the time. The knew very little about the prospect and would rather stick to their guns than admit being wrong.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

I don't think it's about wanting to change your opinion. It's about how wrong your opinion is.

explain what is wrong? I said I would never trade up for a WR. You say I'm wrong. Explain.

[KD in CA]

I liked Stevie but let's be honest, he was a loser.

 

This team was desperately in need of shedding losers like Stevie & Fitz. Getting any draft pick for him was a win.

[eball]

explain what is wrong? I said I would never trade up for a WR. You say I'm wrong. Explain.

 

You think making an absolute statement like that means you're "right?"

 

You have an opinion about how to best manage draft selections, and your stubbornness apparently doesn't allow you to absorb facts that suggest the Bills helped themselves by making this move -- so perhaps draft strategy shouldn't be defined by absolutes.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

But put yourself in a mind-set of someone who isn't so wedded to a position of not trading up and ask yourself whether you can see a logic in the trade. That is what we should all be trying to do. Not saying "what would I do?" but ask "is there some evidence of a reasonable logic?"

That specific trade in that draft? I've changed my opinion of the trade as time has gone by. I was for the agressive move, go get your guy.

 

But now logically I feel it made no sense to trade up for Watkins. I don't think Whaley would do it again if he could tell the future. I'm positive zero fans would do the trade again. So many good Wrs in that draft.

 

It didn't hurt us IMO. Watkins is a good player, great player actually. Plus we only gave up pick 19. But my stance on trading up has changed. I don't see the benefit anymore. Add picks,as many as possible. Whaley is a good GM. I would like him to have as many picks as possible.

You think making an absolute statement like that means you're "right?"

 

You have an opinion about how to best manage draft selections, and your stubbornness apparently doesn't allow you to absorb facts that suggest the Bills helped themselves by making this move -- so perhaps draft strategy shouldn't be defined by absolutes.

I never brought up right or wrong. Someone said I'm wrong about not wanting to trade up for a WR. I simply asked what makes me wrong? It's my opinion.

 

As for the Watkins trade, if the Giants offered Odell Beckham and a 1st round pick for Sammy Watkins you would say yes. A couple years ago I would think differently, today it's obvious.

Edited July 13, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[John from Riverside]

Stevie is a unique talent in that those talents aren't quite measurable. He's not especially fast, strong or tall. So of course you're going to have some people saying he's no good because he doesn't fit into one of those three categories.

 

The guy put up three straight 1,000 yard seasons with fitzpicksix as his QB. And then they went from a crap QB to one that was ten times worse with ej. I'd love to see what he could do on this team as a slot receicer, assuming they open up the playbook for Tyrod.

 

And the Watkins trade was a good one in retrospect. Not necessarily because of the value nor the selection (I would have rather taken Mack). But simply because Whaley and co were going to blow the later pick by taking Ebron instead of Beckham.

I dont agree with you much....but I think you are spot on here

[eball]

That specific trade in that draft? I've changed my opinion of the trade as time has gone by. I was for the agressive move, go get your guy.

 

But now logically I feel it made no sense to trade up for Watkins. I don't think Whaley would do it again if he could tell the future. I'm positive zero fans would do the trade again. So many good Wrs in that draft.

 

It didn't hurt us IMO. Watkins is a good player, great player actually. Plus we only gave up pick 19. But my stance on trading up has changed. I don't see the benefit anymore. Add picks,as many as possible. Whaley is a good GM. I would like him to have as many picks as possible.

I never brought up right or wrong. Someone said I'm wrong about not wanting to trade up for a WR. I simply asked what makes me wrong? It's my opinion.

 

As for the Watkins trade, if the Giants offered Odell Beckham and a 1st round pick for Sammy Watkins you would say yes. A couple years ago I would think differently, today it's obvious.

 

Am I a fool if I don't think it's obvious? OBJ has had Eli Manning. Let's revisit this question in five years and see what the two WRs have become.

[Gugny]

 

Am I a fool if I don't think it's obvious? OBJ has had Eli Manning. Let's revisit this question in five years and see what the two WRs have become.

 

Hopefully they become a better QB's targets.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Hopefully they become a better QB's targets.

I think that the 2nd half of the year showed that Tyrod knows he needs to target Sammy. I think that you will see 10 targets a game for Sammy from this point forward. He will be used like Julio, Brown, OBJ and all other great receivers are. Gone are the days of 2 catches on 3 targets. He will be a focal point of the office from the middle of last season until his time in Buffalo is up (which isn't anytime soon). It is going to be Tyrod to Sammy for 10 years.

[Gugny]

I think that the 2nd half of the year showed that Tyrod knows he needs to target Sammy. I think that you will see 10 targets a game for Sammy from this point forward. He will be used like Julio, Brown, OBJ and all other great receivers are. Gone are the days of 2 catches on 3 targets. He will be a focal point of the office from the middle of last season until his time in Buffalo is up (which isn't anytime soon). It is going to be Tyrod to Sammy for 10 years.

 

I hope you're right. About all of this.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I hope you're right. About all of this.

To be honest, it was kind of min boggling to me that they ever thought that it was okay to use him so little? They gave up a lot to get him, he has a great skill set and they would throw him 3 balls. I'm glad that he spoke up. Maybe he was beat up to start the year but I know that if I had a receiver with his talents I would be finding ways to get him the ball. He still lags behind other great receivers in "number of targets" but that comes from the run first offense. The chart above clearly shows that when you throw him the ball good things happen. Even the Bills can see that -can't they?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

Am I a fool if I don't think it's obvious? OBJ has had Eli Manning. Let's revisit this question in five years and see what the two WRs have become.

I used to be there but take some time and watch Beckham run routes. Its unbelievable how much separation he gets. Watkins is a great player, but there is no way someone can say today they would take Watkins over OBJ and a 1st.

 

I used to pound the table for the trade. It doesnt make sense to keep doing that. Im just happy we at least hit on Watkins.

Edited July 13, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[thebandit27]

I used to be there but take some time and watch Beckham run routes. Its unbelievable how much separation he gets. Watkins is a great player, but there is no way someone can say today they would take Watkins over OBJ and a 1st.

 

I used to pound the table for the trade. It doesnt make sense to keep doing that. Im just happy we at least hit on Watkins.

 

The thing is, it's not really genuine to use hindsight to criticize the decision at the time they made it.

 

There was no question at all that Watkins was the best offensive player in that draft, and they did what they had to do to get him.

 

Now, you're correct that very few people would choose Sammy over Beckham plus a 1st (though I'll tell you that--from my perspective--it's a whole lot closer than you might expect). That doesn't mean that it was a bad move.

 

You move up because you fall in love with a prospect and don't want to miss out. They got their guy, it was a definite hit, and he's poised to be a great player for them for a long time.

 

As far as the two players being compared, I watch both guys intently, and they're both open nearly all the time. The biggest difference I've seen is that Beckham really struggles when he's pressed at the line, which too many teams are afraid to do because of his deep speed.