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RD 1, Pick 19: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson University


Beerball

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@ChrisBrownBills

Shaq Lawson - I'm very prepared for the NFL. I'm going to set the edge. Ready to help this team out and bring a Super Bowl back here. #Bills

@ChrisBrownBills

Shaq - not expecting to need shoulder surgery at any point moving forward. #Bills


https://vine.co/v/iPdQU7Z6xgW

Check this out, Shaq whips Stanley

 

@ChrisBrownBills

Shaq - Felt like I went against top competition that's going to be in the NFL like Ronnie Stanley (went 6th to Ravens). #Bills


@buffalobills

"I'm ready to just get on the field to help this team out...to bring a Super Bowl here." 1f4af.png

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@TyDunne

Lawson on Whaley saying he'll start Day 1: "That was my goal anyway. Come in Day 1, make an impact and get this team to the playoffs."


@SalSports

Shaq Lawson did not visit Bills pre-draft. Streak since 2010 ends of 1st pick being a pre-draft visitor.

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I feel like with it being a Clemson kid the pre draft visit is less crucial

I agree and think it is silly for Rex to get knocked for picking Clemson players. Having his son be someone who knows these guys, their work ethic in practice, attitude on and off the field, leadership qualities, etc... is invaluable information and something you don't get to see during the pre-draft process where everyone is on there best behavior and giving coached answers.

 

I also wonder if they figured he wouldn't be around for there spot so they didn't feel the need to bring him in.

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making the rounds - i believe from reddit, but the board i read it on didnt source it.

 

Broad Jump 9'9" or better, 3 cone under 7.20. It seems almost too simple on the surface, but check this out.

I'm looking at every player drafted between 2003 and 2012. I'm not including players drafted in 2013/14/15 because they haven't completed their rookie contracts yet.

That said, players who jumped 9'9" or better in the broad jump AND had a 3 cone under 7.20 average almost 21 sacks by the end of their rookie contract, AKA their first 4 seasons in the league. The exact number is 20.84 for those of you who are skeptical about me saying "almost".

Players who fail ONE of those two little checks average 6.8 sacks by the end of their rookie contract. Players who fail both average 5.9.

 

To look beyond just averages, get this. The odds of a player contributing exactly 0 sacks for a team if they check these boxes are 15.56%. If they fail to check even one of the two boxes those odds go up to 35.85%. Failing to check both boxes raises the odds even more, to 43.18%.

The odds of a player accumulating at least 20 sacks in their rookie contract if they check both boxes? 45.65%. If they fail to check one? 8.49%. Fail both and your odds of accumulating 20+ sacks in your rookie contract are 6.82%.

 

At the end of the day, it's not COMPLETELY fool proof, but if you like playing the odds, this has gotta be the best combination of ease+accuracy out there.

If you don't like advanced metrics but still want a quick, easy way to tell which edge rush prospects have a good shot at being pretty good, all you need to pay attention to is 3 cone and broad jump. Seems simple enough, right?

Looking at this year's class, here are the players that check both boxes:

 

Joey Bosa (grats Chargers)

Alex McCalister

Trent Corney

Leonard Floyd (grats Bears)

Bryson Albright

Jonathan Woodard

Stephen Weatherly

Shaq Lawson (grats Bills)

Kamalei Correa

Tyler Roberts

 

Players who fail one check, but not two:

 

Shawn Oakman (3 cone 7.53)

Bronson Kaufusi (broad jump 9'3")

Shiro Davis (3 cone 7.22)

Emmanuel Ogbah (3 cone 7.26)

Tautvydas Kieras (broad jump 9'8")

Shilique Calhoun (broad jump 9'7")

Romeo Okwara (3 cone 7.38)

James Cowser (broad jump 9'3")

Noah Spence (3 cone 7.21)

Jason Fanaika (broad jump 9'5")

Tyrone Holmes (broad jump 9'5")

Dadi Nicholas (broad jump 9'8")

Victor Ochi (3 cone 7.24)

Yannick Ngakoue (3 cone 7.35)

 

Players who fail both checks - the only drafted edge rushers since 2003 to fail both checks and still manage 20+ sacks on their rookie contracts have been Carlos Dunlap, Jabaal Sheard, and Ray Edwards. Here are your almost-definitely-busts:

 

Carl Nassib

Jonathan Bullard (although I like him as an interior DL)

Kevin Dodd

Branden Jackson

Mehdi Abdesmad

Matt Judon

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so all the NFL scouts and analysts are wrong about Lawson? He's been consistently ranked as a top 15 talent in this draft and top 2 pass rusher with Bosa. You act as if the Bills took him only because Rex has connections to Clemson (like it is a negative) and he was some kind of reach. Clemson has incredible talent on both sides of the ball. We are lucky that he has a connection there tbh. Jmo

Plus Watkins was picked before Rex got here. Last year we went FSU heavy in the draft. Living in Charleston I watch alot of the Clemson games and follow their program. They always have top end talent and good human beings. If they are not Dabo kicks them off the team. They are the anti FSU.

 

This kid is the real deal. I'm guessing we'll all be very happy with this pick after her settles in and learns the defense and speed of the NFL.

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Inside the Bills Draft Room: Day One

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Check out photos from inside the Buffalo Bills draft room on the first day of the 2016 NFL Draft.

 

Lawson: "I'm Ready To Get On That Field" (8:07)
Bills 1st rd pick Shaq Lawson addresses the Buffalo media for the first time to talk about his relationship with Rex Ryan, his eagerness to get to work and more.

 

Shaq Lawson's First Day at One Bills Drive
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Photos of Buffalo Bills first-round draft pick Shaq Lawson on his first day at One Bills Drive.

 

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