It's just bad luck

BillsVet · April 27, 2016

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25567414/gm-explains-how-andrew-luck-spoiled-bills-plan-to-draft-cam-newton

Hey, the Bills just aren't lucky. It's a big part of the reason they've struggled finding their QB of the future.

First it was QB purgatory and now it's bad luck.

Freddie's Dead · April 27, 2016

Time to call the waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaambulance. We had a shot at Russell Wilson and Captain Kirk Cousins, and we passed on both.

Buffalo Barbarian · April 27, 2016

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25567414/gm-explains-how-andrew-luck-spoiled-bills-plan-to-draft-cam-newton

Hey, the Bills just aren't lucky. It's a big part of the reason they've struggled finding their QB of the future.

First it was QB purgatory and now it's bad luck.

no just bad scouting.

Beef Jerky · April 27, 2016

Time to call the waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaambulance. We had a shot at Russell Wilson and Captain Kirk Cousins, and we passed on both.

I still don't want Kirk

H2o · April 27, 2016

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25567414/gm-explains-how-andrew-luck-spoiled-bills-plan-to-draft-cam-newton

Hey, the Bills just aren't lucky. It's a big part of the reason they've struggled finding their QB of the future.

First it was QB purgatory and now it's bad luck.

So Andrew is the good "luck" and Tyrod Taylor is "bad luck". I get it

BillsVet · April 27, 2016

In Whaleys defense, no where in the article does he say bad luck is why they've struggled finding a QB.

The writer of the article suggests that. Not Whaley.

It's been a common refrain here for many years it's just bad luck for why the Bills aren't winning. :lol:

Certainly the writer applied his angle to the story, but it's strange a GM would be talking about this 5 years after the fact. To me it smacks of someone who isn't comfortable with their current QB situation and is preemptively saying it wasn't their fault.

We all know GMs and HCs use the media for getting their message out, and that's what this is IMO. Because without a playoff season it's likely people's jobs are at stake.

Malazan · April 27, 2016

It's been a common refrain here for many years it's just bad luck for why the Bills aren't winning.

This "common refrain" is just in your head like many of your other claims.

thebandit27 · April 27, 2016

It's been a common refrain here for many years it's just bad luck for why the Bills aren't winning.

Certainly the writer applied his angle to the story, but it's strange a GM would be talking about this 5 years after the fact. To me it smacks of someone who isn't comfortable with their current QB situation and is preemptively saying it wasn't their fault.

We all know GMs and HCs use the media for getting their message out, and that's what this is IMO. Because without a playoff season it's likely people's jobs are at stake.

That's a strawman argument.

The vast majority of folks have said that it's been the inability to find a franchise QB that's held them back.

If you want to say that it was indeed their fault for not drafting Cam Newton when he wasn't on the board, fine, say that. It won't make sense at all, but hey, neither does the first assertion you've made here.

The reality is that passing on two guys--Dalton and Russell Wilson--has easily been the worst of their decisions for the team, and it's set them back.

I'd love to see any link to any post stating that it's bad luck. Maybe you'll find one, but the idea that it's been a common refrain is simply false.

Nanker · April 27, 2016

I like it. So for the 5th anniversary of the 2011 Draft, SI does an in depth feature article on how the picks were taken - by various insiders including our current GM Doug Whaley.

"The 2011 NFL draft will go down as one of the most talent-laden ever—maybe the most. Already, nine of the first 11 picks have been selected to a Pro Bowl, more than have ever come from the first 11 of any modern-era draft, including the famed class of 1983. Which isn’t to suggest this was just a top-heavy class. The 2014 NFL rushing and sack leaders, plus today’s most feared corner in the league were all taken after the 69th pick. This is the behind-the-scenes story of how that class came to be.

On the clock: 1. Panthers 2. Broncos 3. Bills . . .

Mel Kiper Jr. (ESPN draft expert): Coming in, the highest-rated player on my big board was [LSU cornerback] Patrick Peterson. He was a can’t-miss prospect.

Patrick Peterson: I knew I was the best player in the draft, but I also knew I wasn’t going to be the No. 1 pick. It would have been cool to be the first cornerback to go No. 1, but I know how teams build—around the quarterback and pass rush. And Carolina needed a QB.

Marty Hurney (Panthers general manager): It all starts with that position. We’d taken Jimmy Clausen the year before in the second round. We still didn’t have that proven, elite franchise QB on our roster.

Ron Rivera (Panthers coach): When I first got [to Carolina] we talked about finding a franchise quarterback. I said, “He’s either on the roster or out there in the draft, but we have to go through everything to figure it out.”

Hurney: We looked closely at [Texas A&M linebacker] Von Miller, too. [Auburn quarterback] Cam [Newton] just jumped off the tape. The measurables: Arm strength, ability to look down field. . . . He looked to throw when pressure came.

Doug Whaley (Bills assistant GM): When we first started the draft process, we thought we’d have a good shot at Newton. [stanford quarterback] Andrew Luck, had he come out, would have been the first pick. Denver was at No. 2, and they didn’t need a QB. So we thought, We’ll get Cam at No. 3.

Warren Moon (mentor to Cam Newton): Cam was set to meet with the Bills before his pro day, but he didn’t have the proper clothes. I said, “No way can you meet guys in your warmups.” That’s how important perception and image are to NFL owners. We ran to the mall. It’s not easy finding stuff off the rack for him.

Kiper: Andrew Luck staying at Stanford was huge. By March, I had Newton going No. 1 in my mock draft. He had so much more talent than anyone else. He was like Superman—if you could just square away the intangibles.

Adam Schefter (ESPN reporter): Marty Hurney was under a tremendous amount of pressure to not take Cam Newton. There were people ripping Cam left and right [mostly over pay-to-play allegations].

Cecil Newton (Cam Newton’s father): There was still a lot of scandal, a lot of misinformation out there, writers who said Cam wasn’t a leader. You really need to have thick skin.

Schefter: He was about as polarizing a figure as there could be for an eventual No. 1 pick.

Moon: There was a lot of selling of Cam to [Panthers owner Jerry] Richardson. He’s a real conservative guy. Cam is a little bit outgoing, and he had some history—things he went through in college. Mr. Richardson had to swallow that and digest it. Remember: He said he didn’t want a QB that had cornrows, tattoos all over. . . . This was going to be a sell job.

Cecil Newton: I sat with Coach Rivera; I met with Jerry Richardson privately. I didn’t know what he would think of me, and he didn’t know what I would think of him. It was a 2 1/2-hour session. It took some ice-breaking, but we warmed up.

Hurney: Ron and I met with Cam for four hours in a hotel outside Auburn. The more research we did, as we talked to everybody, they all said the same thing: Cam was dedicated, had a great work ethic. A lot of the things written about him we didn’t find to be true. From that process, it just felt like he was our guy.

Schefter: I hoped Marty was right. His job depended on it.

Cecil Newton: Our whole family was [at the draft]. The Panthers didn’t explicitly tell us, We’re going to take you. So we weren’t really sure whether Cam would be No. 1. He was really edgy.

Rivera: When the league told us we were on the board, we put the name in right away. There was no hesitation.Schefter: Marty Hurney stood in the face of the critics and did what he thought was right, and he turned out to be right. . . . Then he lost his job anyway [after Carolina started 1–5 in 2012]. . . .

At No. 2, Miller was ticketed for Denver all along. They needed pass-rush help. And Von had no issues.

John Elway (Broncos GM): He was as athletic as anybody I’ve ever seen. That size and speed; that talent. . . . Obviously Cam was up there too. We looked there [despite having Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton on the roster].

Von Miller: I met John at the combine. I could tell on John’s face—I could tell on everybody’s face—they were really excited about meeting with me. They wanted me. It was different than any other meeting I had.

Whaley: On draft day we were thinking, Denver will probably go with [Alabama defensive tackle] Marcell Dareus, and then we’ll get Von Miller. We thought they’d go with an interior guy instead of an outside guy.

Schefter: I wish Doug had called me. That was one I knew.

Miller: At the draft, you kind of know—but you really don’t. I really didn’t know.

Elway: There were a lot of good football players [in that draft], but Von was a guy you could build an organization around.

Whaley: When Von went to Denver, everyone [in our draft room] had big smiles, everyone stood up. We had Marcell rated over Von. I was like, Don’t even listen to the [trade offers coming in], just turn that card in.

Kiper: The Bills had one of the worst rushing defenses. They needed a big body.

Whaley: With Marcell, you’re talking about a big, athletic man: 320 pounds, can run, is instinctive and a playmaker. A rare combination. . . . Cam, Von, Marcell—really, we wouldn’t have been wrong with any of those guys."

By Ben Baskin, Sports Illustrated http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/04/26/2011-nfl-draft-oral-history-cam-newton-von-miller

Then a staff writer from CBS Sports Sean Wagner-McGough cherry picks some quotes to "craft" an article with this specious angle: "Still, the Bills, five years later, sound a tad disappointed with the outcome of that draft. Because at one point, they thought they were going to snag Newton."

No small wonder this thread is when Whaley detractors pounce on any shred of perceived negativity no matter how inane to castigate him with aspersions. Tut-tut.

3rdand12 · April 27, 2016

I like it. So for the 5th anniversary of the 2011 Draft, SI does an in depth feature article on how the picks were taken - by various insiders including our current GM Doug Whaley.

"The 2011 NFL draft will go down as one of the most talent-laden ever—maybe the most. Already, nine of the first 11 picks have been selected to a Pro Bowl, more than have ever come from the first 11 of any modern-era draft, including the famed class of 1983. Which isn’t to suggest this was just a top-heavy class. The 2014 NFL rushing and sack leaders, plus today’s most feared corner in the league were all taken after the 69th pick. This is the behind-the-scenes story of how that class came to be.

On the clock: 1. Panthers 2. Broncos 3. Bills . . .

Mel Kiper Jr. (ESPN draft expert): Coming in, the highest-rated player on my big board was [LSU cornerback] Patrick Peterson. He was a can’t-miss prospect.

Patrick Peterson: I knew I was the best player in the draft, but I also knew I wasn’t going to be the No. 1 pick. It would have been cool to be the first cornerback to go No. 1, but I know how teams build—around the quarterback and pass rush. And Carolina needed a QB.

Marty Hurney (Panthers general manager): It all starts with that position. We’d taken Jimmy Clausen the year before in the second round. We still didn’t have that proven, elite franchise QB on our roster.

Ron Rivera (Panthers coach): When I first got [to Carolina] we talked about finding a franchise quarterback. I said, “He’s either on the roster or out there in the draft, but we have to go through everything to figure it out.”

Hurney: We looked closely at [Texas A&M linebacker] Von Miller, too. [Auburn quarterback] Cam [Newton] just jumped off the tape. The measurables: Arm strength, ability to look down field. . . . He looked to throw when pressure came.

Doug Whaley (Bills assistant GM): When we first started the draft process, we thought we’d have a good shot at Newton. [stanford quarterback] Andrew Luck, had he come out, would have been the first pick. Denver was at No. 2, and they didn’t need a QB. So we thought, We’ll get Cam at No. 3.

Warren Moon (mentor to Cam Newton): Cam was set to meet with the Bills before his pro day, but he didn’t have the proper clothes. I said, “No way can you meet guys in your warmups.” That’s how important perception and image are to NFL owners. We ran to the mall. It’s not easy finding stuff off the rack for him.

Kiper: Andrew Luck staying at Stanford was huge. By March, I had Newton going No. 1 in my mock draft. He had so much more talent than anyone else. He was like Superman—if you could just square away the intangibles.

Adam Schefter (ESPN reporter): Marty Hurney was under a tremendous amount of pressure to not take Cam Newton. There were people ripping Cam left and right [mostly over pay-to-play allegations].

Cecil Newton (Cam Newton’s father): There was still a lot of scandal, a lot of misinformation out there, writers who said Cam wasn’t a leader. You really need to have thick skin.

Schefter: He was about as polarizing a figure as there could be for an eventual No. 1 pick.

Moon: There was a lot of selling of Cam to [Panthers owner Jerry] Richardson. He’s a real conservative guy. Cam is a little bit outgoing, and he had some history—things he went through in college. Mr. Richardson had to swallow that and digest it. Remember: He said he didn’t want a QB that had cornrows, tattoos all over. . . . This was going to be a sell job.

Cecil Newton: I sat with Coach Rivera; I met with Jerry Richardson privately. I didn’t know what he would think of me, and he didn’t know what I would think of him. It was a 2 1/2-hour session. It took some ice-breaking, but we warmed up.

Hurney: Ron and I met with Cam for four hours in a hotel outside Auburn. The more research we did, as we talked to everybody, they all said the same thing: Cam was dedicated, had a great work ethic. A lot of the things written about him we didn’t find to be true. From that process, it just felt like he was our guy.

Schefter: I hoped Marty was right. His job depended on it.

Cecil Newton: Our whole family was [at the draft]. The Panthers didn’t explicitly tell us, We’re going to take you. So we weren’t really sure whether Cam would be No. 1. He was really edgy.

Rivera: When the league told us we were on the board, we put the name in right away. There was no hesitation.Schefter: Marty Hurney stood in the face of the critics and did what he thought was right, and he turned out to be right. . . . Then he lost his job anyway [after Carolina started 1–5 in 2012]. . . .

At No. 2, Miller was ticketed for Denver all along. They needed pass-rush help. And Von had no issues.

John Elway (Broncos GM): He was as athletic as anybody I’ve ever seen. That size and speed; that talent. . . . Obviously Cam was up there too. We looked there [despite having Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton on the roster].

Von Miller: I met John at the combine. I could tell on John’s face—I could tell on everybody’s face—they were really excited about meeting with me. They wanted me. It was different than any other meeting I had.

Whaley: On draft day we were thinking, Denver will probably go with [Alabama defensive tackle] Marcell Dareus, and then we’ll get Von Miller. We thought they’d go with an interior guy instead of an outside guy.

Schefter: I wish Doug had called me. That was one I knew.

Miller: At the draft, you kind of know—but you really don’t. I really didn’t know.

Elway: There were a lot of good football players [in that draft], but Von was a guy you could build an organization around.

Whaley: When Von went to Denver, everyone [in our draft room] had big smiles, everyone stood up. We had Marcell rated over Von. I was like, Don’t even listen to the [trade offers coming in], just turn that card in.

Kiper: The Bills had one of the worst rushing defenses. They needed a big body.

Whaley: With Marcell, you’re talking about a big, athletic man: 320 pounds, can run, is instinctive and a playmaker. A rare combination. . . . Cam, Von, Marcell—really, we wouldn’t have been wrong with any of those guys."

By Ben Baskin, Sports Illustrated http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/04/26/2011-nfl-draft-oral-history-cam-newton-von-miller

Then a staff writer from CBS Sports Sean Wagner-McGough cherry picks some quotes to "craft" an article with this specious angle: "Still, the Bills, five years later, sound a tad disappointed with the outcome of that draft. Because at one point, they thought they were going to snag Newton."

No small wonder this thread is when Whaley detractors pounce on any shred of perceived negativity no matter how inane to castigate him with aspersions. Tut-tut.

That was fine read Nanker ! Thanks.

BarleyNY · April 27, 2016

The Colts didn't get lucky when they got Andrew Luck. They tanked for him. They wouldn't have had that chance had Peyton Manning not gotten injured, but they made sure they had absolute garbage at QB that season. It was a lot like the Sabres trading away every decent goalie they came across to get Eichel.

BillsVet · April 27, 2016

That's a strawman argument.

The vast majority of folks have said that it's been the inability to find a franchise QB that's held them back.

Vast majority? That's not a straw-man argument?

They haven't found a QB because their decisions on the position have been a case study in not prioritizing it. They tried to fill the position with duct tape and bailing wire, then were forced to take one in a bad draft, and now seemingly need to add another arm. Not taking one, especially in 2011 and 2012 haunts them to this day. (Now I suppose someone will say who they should have taken to further conflate the issue)

Almost everything in terms of on-field success circles back eventually to bad front office management. Not taking a QB in 3 drafts is a bad decision. And having to enter drafts needing a certain position is the cumulative result of bad decisions. It's why the Bills never really rebuild, but shuffle pieces around and end up with the same result...mediocrity.

thebandit27 · April 27, 2016

Vast majority? That's not a straw-man argument?

They haven't found a QB because their decisions on the position have been a case study in not prioritizing it. They tried to fill the position with duct tape and bailing wire, then were forced to take one in a bad draft, and now seemingly need to add another arm. Not taking one, especially in 2011 and 2012 haunts them to this day. (Now I suppose someone will say who they should have taken to further conflate the issue)

Almost everything in terms of on-field success circles back eventually to bad front office management. Not taking a QB in 3 drafts is a bad decision. And having to enter drafts needing a certain position is the cumulative result of bad decisions. It's why the Bills never really rebuild, but shuffle pieces around and end up with the same result...mediocrity.

No, it's not a strawman at all. The QB position, and the team's inability to find one, gets talked about ad nauseam on this site. In fact, I can't think of another topic that even comes close.

There's no question that they didn't prioritize QB in 2011 and 2012, hence my statements about Dalton and Wilson. There's also no question that, since 2013, they have prioritized it. They've spent a 1st round pick and added starting-level QBs in FA each offseason.

Regardless, not a single thing in this response supports the statement that bad luck is commonly cited as the reason for their continued inability to make the playoffs, which is the very title of this thread, and the statement with which I took issue. It appears that the reference to poor decision-making in 2011 and 2012 is further conflating the discussion.

DrDawkinstein · April 27, 2016

The Colts didn't get lucky when they got Andrew Luck. They tanked for him. They wouldn't have had that chance had Peyton Manning not gotten injured, but they made sure they had absolute garbage at QB that season. It was a lot like the Sabres trading away every decent goalie they came across to get Eichel.

Speaking of Luck (both Good and Andrew), how is it that the Colts franchise manages to time their tankings every 15 years or so, to coincide with that generations top QB talent? 1983 with Elway, 1998 with Manning, and 2012 with Luck. What a bunch of jerks!

It's been a common refrain here for many years it's just bad luck for why the Bills aren't winning.

Certainly the writer applied his angle to the story, but it's strange a GM would be talking about this 5 years after the fact. To me it smacks of someone who isn't comfortable with their current QB situation and is preemptively saying it wasn't their fault.

We all know GMs and HCs use the media for getting their message out, and that's what this is IMO. Because without a playoff season it's likely people's jobs are at stake.

Classic BillsVet, right here.

thebandit27 · April 27, 2016

Speaking of Luck (both Good and Andrew), how is it that the Colts franchise manages to time their tankings every 15 years or so, to coincide with that generations top QB talent? 1983 with Elway, 1998 with Manning, and 2012 with Luck. What a bunch of jerks!

Classic BillsVet, right here.

It's just bad luck

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