Bandit's Annual Mock

[thebandit27]

As many of you know, I do one mock draft every year…and if you would stop feeding my ego, you’d stop having to see them

 

First, a few disclaimers: below represents what I think will happen on Thursday, not necessarily what I would do with any team’s pick. Also, I’m not great at predicting these things; I typically hover around 75% accuracy with regard to identifying the players that will be picked in round 1, and around 25% accuracy with regard to which players end up on which teams.

 

As always, I welcome any comments—try to be nice.

 

1. Los Angeles Rams (f/ Ten): Jared Goff-QB/California

 

In what appears to be Jeff Fisher’s last shot at salvaging his job, the Rams gave up the farm to move 14 spots and grab the draft’s most pro-ready QB. I’ve said all along that Goff is a Matt Ryan-type; cool demeanor, accurate arm, quick release, smart. If he’s able to wrest the starting job from the clutches of the venerable Case Keenum, Goff could provide an immediate boost to a passing game that ranked dead last in the NFL in 2015.

 

2. Philadelphia Eagles (f/ Cle): Carson Wentz-QB/North Dakota State

 

There aren’t many teams willing to trade a boatload of picks to move up to #2 for a QB in the same offseason that they mete out $30M in guaranteed money to veteran QBs. New HC Doug Pederson and Howie Roseman must feel really good about Wentz—the big-armed FCS Phenom. The physical tools are all there, but the worrisome part with Wentz will be his transition to the speed of the NFL game. He was never a quick-release guy in college, and his processing speed will be critical to his development. Luckily, he’s got some time to sit and learn (assuming Sam Bradford stops brooding long enough to accept the oh-so-offensive $18M payday he’s got coming).

 

3. San Diego Chargers: Jalen Ramsey-S/Florida State

 

Some teams have Ramsey slated as a corner, but I like him better as a safety, where he’ll have more freedom to roam and use his ball skills. With veterans like Patrick Robinson and Jason Verrett in the fold at corner, Ramsey can play FS, walk down to slot corner in nickel sets, and match against the Travis Kelce’s of the league. That type of versatility should go a long way in improving a pass defense that ranked 29^th in the NFL in YPA allowed last season.

 

4. Dallas Cowboys: Joey Bosa-DL/Ohio State

 

I think this is a pick that the entire top-10 can turn on—with Laremy Tunsil still on the board, you could see a team like Tennessee, Chicago, or Indianapolis make a move. There’s also the persistent rumor that the Cowboys love Ezekiel Elliott, so that’s a possibility as well. For me, with the loss of their top 2 pass rushers from 2015 (Greg Hardy to FA and Demarcus Lawrence to suspension), plus the suspension of 2015 2^nd round pick Randy Gregory, they’re practically forced into making an addition along their defensive front early. Bosa is a plus athlete with tremendous technique and tenacity that has the ability to play in multiple fronts.

 

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Myles Jack-LB/UCLA

 

When you start hearing conflicting information about a player’s injury scaring teams away, it may give you pause…unless you’re a skeptic like I am. Sounds like somebody wants Jack to drop, but I don’t see it happening. Sorry, but 233-lb guys with 33.5” arms that can cover slot WRs and possess the ability to jolt a pulling lineman upright in his place don’t grow on trees. A defense that saw a little bit of light with contributors like Sen’Derrick Marks and Telvin Smith gets beefed up with Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, Jack, and 2015 1^st rounder Dante Fowler (who missed all of his rookie season with a knee injury)…Gus Bradley has no more excuses this year.

 

6. Baltimore Ravens: Laremy Tunsil-OT/Ole Miss

 

From 1^st overall to out of the top 5 in less than 2 weeks, and through no fault of his own, Tunsil will be one motivated dude come September. Baltimore doesn’t really need a LT, but Ozzie Newsome won’t pass on one with franchise potential when he falls in his lap. With Eugene Monroe already in the fold, the Ravens can afford to start Tunsil out on the right side, with Ricky Wagner moving to the swing role. Adding the draft’s top OL talent should lessen the blow of losing All Pro LG Kelechi Osemele in FA.

 

7. San Francisco 49ers: DeForest Bucker-DL/Oregon

 

Now this is a bad football team. While they’d like to add a potential franchise QB (who wouldn’t?), they need everything. The pass rush ranked 29^th in the NFL, and they allowed 8.0 YPA to opposing QBs in 2015, which placed 30^th. Buckner is a physical freak: 6’7”, 290 lbs, with 34.5” arms and 11-3/4” hands! He’s similar to former Oregon teammate Arik Armstead, who the ‘niners picked 15^th overall last year, but he’s a more natural pass rusher.

 

**TRADE**

8. Miami Dolphins (f/ Mia via Cle and Phi): Ezekiel Elliott-RB/Ohio State

 

Miami makes a move to get their original pick back, and the Browns do what they do: pass up elite-level playmakers to get more bites at the apple. With Zeke still on the board after the top 7, HC Adam Gase sees the opportunity to pad his offense with a game-breaking back. Elliott’s size, burst, and balance make him a threat to break big runs every time he touches the ball, and will relieve a significant amount of pressure from QB Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins’ dink-and-dunk passing game.

 

**TRADE**

9. Tennessee Titans (f/ TB): Ronnie Stanley-OT/Notre Dame

 

What a deal for the Titans! They get to keep all but one of the 2^nd-round picks they gained in the trade-down from No. 1, and they get the OT they coveted from the start. Stanley is a rock of a LT; effective in the run game and capable of brilliance in pass protection. This move allows Tennessee to move Taylor Lewan over to RT and Jeremiah Poutasi to guard, which will hopefully improve a unit that allowed an NFL-worst 54 sacks in 2015.

 

10. New York Giants: Vernon Hargreaves-CB/Florida

 

After missing out on both Elliott and Stanley, and spending bajillions of FA dollars on the defense, the Giants could turn their attention to another tackle like Taylor Decker or Jack Conklin, but the opportunity to have their pick of the litter from the class of corners is too good to pass up. Hargreaves is a terrific athlete with an aggressive mentality and elite-level man coverage skills. His short arms and small hands may give him fits against some of the NFC East’s bigger WRs (Dez Bryant and Jordan Matthews), but he’s a perfect fit as a slot corner for a team that already has Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Janoris Jenkins, and faced 39.9 passing attempts per game in 2015 (4^th-most in the NFL).

 

11. Chicago Bears: Leonard Floyd-EDGE/Georgia

 

The Bears actually had a decent trio of pass rushers in 2015, with LaMarr Houston/Pernell McPhee/Willie Young combining for 19 sacks. What they lack is a consistent force along their front-3. Houston is severely miscast as a stand-up defender, and would be a much better fit as a 5-tech in John Fox’s defense. Floyd is an incredible athlete that’s smooth and fluid with great length. He can set the edge in the run game and provide pass rush as a rookie. He’ll need to add a fair amount of bulk to his frame and requires quite a bit of refinement before he’s ready to be an every-down player, but the all-pro potential will be too much for a heady coach like Fox to pass on at this pick.

 

12. New Orleans Saints: Shaq Lawson-DL/Clemson

 

What does the number 116.2 mean to you? If you’re a Saints’ fan, then it means tears of pain, as that’s the total passer rating their defense allowed to opposing QBs last year. That’s nothing short of atrocious. This defense needs another consistent pass-rush threat along the front to complement Cameron Jordan, and Lawson is a perfect fit. He can line up anywhere from 9-tech all the way inside to 3-tech, and can play as a stand-up rusher and drop into space. He makes disguising pressure packages much easier, and will allow their versatile young LB duo of Stephone Anthony and Hau’oli Kikaha to have more space to make plays.

 

13. Cleveland Browns (f/Mia): Darron Lee-LB/Ohio State

 

Finally, the Browns make a pick; I gave serious thought to having them trade down again, but at some point, they have to start selecting players. In addition to playing right in their backyard, Lee is a versatile ‘backer with incredible timed speed and athleticism. He’s played as an EDGE defender and offers some pass rush ability, but he can also drop in space and mirror against backs and TEs. For a team that released Karlos Dansby and currently has Tank Carder atop its depth chart at the Will spot, Lee would be a welcomed addition.

 

14. Oakland Raiders: A’Shawn Robinson-DL/Alabama

 

GM Reggie McKenzie has had two very solid drafts in a row, adding a ton of front-7 talent. They have needs at MLB and CB, so a guy like Reggie Ragland or William Jackson III could make sense here, but did you also know that they got a grand total of 1.0 sack from their starting interior DL tandem last year? Robinson is a monster that can not only take on double teams and play in multiple schemes but can also get upfield and collapse the pocket. He’ll free up EDGE rushers Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin to be more aggressive and improve their ability to pressure opposing passers, taking more heat off their back-7.

 

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (f/ Ten): Kevin Dodd-DL/Clemson

 

Their best pass-rusher was Jacquies Smith. Go ahead and re-read that. We good? Good. Tampa Bay added Robert Ayers in FA, but they’ll need at least one more threat if they want to boost a defense that allowed a 102.5 passer rating to opposing QBs last year (only the Saints were worse). Dodd, much like his college teammate Shaq Lawson, offers a ton of versatility. He can play in a 2-point, line up on the interior, or flat out run the arc in obvious passing situations.

 

16. Detroit Lions: Jack Conklin-OT/Michigan State

 

This could be another potential landing spot for Ragland if they decide not to move DeAndre Levy back to MLB, but for now I’m giving them a starting OT. LT Riley Reiff will be an unrestricted FA after this season, and their RT is something called Michael Ola. Conklin may never be a pro bowl tackle, but he’s a guy that can start at RT from day 1 and bring a bit of nasty to a unit that finished dead last in rushing YPG in 2015 despite boasting a solid interior.

 

**TRADE**

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (f/ Atl): William Jackson III-CB/Houston

 

Speculation has been that Atlanta wants to move down, and this could be a landing spot for several players including Taylor Decker (think Jets, Seahawks) or Paxton Lynch (Denver). I think Jackson-to-Pittsburgh is simply too good a match not to happen. The Steelers allowed the 3^rd-most passing yards in the league last year, and parted ways with their top cover man (Cortez Allen) a few weeks ago. Jackson is my #1 corner in the draft, with the best size/speed/length combination and very good ball skills. GM Kevin Colbert is never shy about going and getting the players that fit his team’s identity, and that’s Jackson all over.

 

18. Indianapolis Colts: Reggie Ragland-LB/Alabama

 

I thought long and hard about giving them Taylor Decker to help secure their leaky OL, but that just seems too un-Grigson-like. I also think an EDGE defender would make sense here, given the ages of Robert Mathis and Trent Cole. Ragland, however, represents too much value as a replacement for FA-defection Jerrell Freeman to pass on at this point. For a Colts’ defense that allowed 4.3 YPC to opposing backs, and ranked 30^th in the league in runs of 20+ yards allowed, an instinctive LB like Ragland would be an immediate contributor.

 

**TRADE**

19. Denver Broncos (f/ Buf): Paxton Lynch-QB/Memphis

 

I tried not to do this; I don’t really want the Bills to trade down. I just cannot get by the idea that Denver needs to make a move to get ahead of the Jets, and here and Atlanta are the best places to do it. If Buffalo stays here, they probably pick from Taylor Decker, Chris Jones, Josh Doctson, and Karl Joseph. With Denver moving into this slot, they get the big-on-arm/short-on-vision signal caller to groom behind Mark Sanchez. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: I’m not a Lynch guy, and I’d hate this pick if it were my team.

 

20. New York Jets: Taylor Decker-OT/Ohio State

 

Steady-as-a-rock D’Brickashaw Ferguson is out at LT; pay-me-for-being-on-IR Ryan Clady is in, and RT Breno Giacomini is lousy-at-best. This Jets club that likes to sling the ball is facing serious questions at the edges of their offensive front. Decker isn’t my favorite tackle in the class, as I think he’s got pad level issues and isn’t a great drive-blocker, but he’s a starting-caliber tackle for a team that sorely needs one. I expect the Jets to look for a QB in round 2.

 

21. Washington Redskins: Ryan Kelly-C/Alabama

 

After tying for 29^th in the NFL with 3.7 YPC, Jay Gruden’s offense badly needs to shore up the leaks on their interior. No. 5 overall pick Brandon Scherff had a solid rookie year at RG, but center Kory Lichtensteiger looks like he’s on his way out. Kelly is clear-and-away the top center in the draft, sporting the critical footspeed and upper-body strength to control the point of attack from the pivot position. He should start as a rookie and give the Redskins’ run game a huge boost.

 

22. Houston Texans: Josh Doctson-WR/TCU

 

DeAndre Hopkins had a phenomenal breakout campaign in 2015, and looks to be a bona fide #1 WR. Outside of Hopkins, Houston has very little in the way of receiving production, and they’ll need another reliable target if they expect Brock Osweiler to have sustained success. Doctson doesn’t have elite straight-line speed, but he’s got everything else you want in a boundary threat: size, body control, hands, and short-area quickness. He’ll start from day 1 and allow Cecil Shorts III to move into the slot in ‘11’ sets.

 

23. Minnesota Vikings: Laquon Treadwell-WR/Ole Miss

 

I felt all along that Treadwell was a top-25 picks, and nothing has changed for me. He doesn’t have the type of top-end speed to land him in the top-15, but he does possess the route-running prowess and ball skills to be a team’s top target. For the Vikings, who haven’t had a receiver crest 60 receptions in a season since Greg Jennings in 2013, a guy that had 82 catches in 13 games as a senior (including a run of 6 straight games with a TD) must feel like a godsend.

 

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Sheldon Rankins-DT/Louisville

 

What’s he doing still on the board? Well, I have two answers to that: depth of the class makes teams feel that they can get DT talent later on, and Rankins, for me, is a scheme-specific fit. He’s a guy that is on the smaller side, doesn’t have outstanding length (it’s average), and wins with speed most of the time…which makes him a perfect penetrating 3-tech in a 40-front. The Bengals are looking to get younger and more athletic than Domata Peko at the DT spot, and Rankins, a local product, would be a perfect complement to Geno Atkins as they look to improve upon a bottom-10 run defense in YPC. Could they go receiver here? Sure. I’ll just note that the two guys that left in FA, Sanu and Jones, were 3^rd and 6^th round picks, respectively.

 

25. Atlanta Falcons: Karl Joseph-S/West Virginia

 

It took me a while to come around on Joseph, but I’m there now. He’s a beast. He’s physically similar to Earl Thomas, but plays like Kam Chancellor, which has to make Falcons’ HC and former Seahawks DC Dan Quinn a fan. Safety is an enormous need, as their current depth chart lists Kemal Ishmael and Ricardo Allen as the starting tandem (all together now: who?). Joseph’s speed and aggressiveness will allow him to play either safety spot, and walk down to slot corner in big nickel packages. When you face high-octane offenses like Carolina and New Orleans twice a season, that type of versatility is essential.

 

**TRADE**

26. Cleveland Browns (f/ Sea): Connor Cook-QB/Michigan State

 

Browns move down to avoid drafting a QB; Browns move up to draft a QB. Does it make sense? Sure. They grabbed an extra 1^st rounder next year, which they get to keep, and they can move up here for the cost of a 3^rd round pick. Cook has the physical tools to be a franchise QB, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him on his mechanics, delivery, and processing ability. Moving up to the end of round 1 ensures that Cleveland gets him on a 5-year deal, and Seattle gets the extra picks and lower cap hit that they covet.

 

27. Green Bay Packers: Chris Jones-DL/Mississippi State

 

If ever there’s a player-team fit, this has to be it. Ted Thompson is a size guy, and Jones is a monster. He’s got the versatility to play in a 2-gap or 1-gap scheme, and can play anywhere from 5-tech all the way inside to 0-tech. The Packers lost BJ Raji to retirement and haven’t gotten returns from Datone Jones, so the former Bulldog’s ability to collapse the pocket and control the LOS would be a huge addition. There’ve been rumors about Jones’ effort lacking at times, but I haven’t seen it in any of the 4 full games of footage I’ve watched.

 

28. Kansas City Chiefs: Corey Coleman-WR/Baylor

 

Andy Reid looks to duplicate the speed-to-burn duo that he had in Philadelphia for years by drafting Coleman, who would be an immediate contributor in their offense. Imagine being an opposing defensive coordinator and knowing that you have to game plan for Jamal Charles and Charcandrick West in the run game, and then account for Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce, Charles, and Corey Coleman in the pass game. Not fun. The presence of Dee Ford prevents them from having to reach for a pass rusher at this point (given the Justin Houston injury).

 

29. Arizona Cardinals: Noah Spence-EDGE/Eastern Kentucky

 

Dwight Freeney came off the shelf in week 5 to lead the Cardinals in sacks, but I don’t think they can count on that type of serendipity again. The acquisition of Chandler Jones should help a bit, as will the maturation of 2015 2^nd rounder Marcus Golden, but adding another legitimate pass-rushing threat is a must if they want to compete for a Super Bowl title. Spence’s on-field skillset has never been questioned, and he sounds like a guy that’s taken accountability for the lifestyle choices that got him dismissed from Ohio State. Even if he’s a situational pass rusher as a rookie, his contributions could change Arizona’s fortunes.

 

30. Carolina Panthers: Mackensie Alexander-CB/Clemson

 

I had this pick set even before they pulled the tag from Josh Norman. This was not a talented secondary, and they desperately need guys that can cover. Alexander slips a bit due to some length/strength issues, but he can cover with the best of them. He’s going to have to temper his attitude a bit, but I don’t think that’ll be a concern for a team that managed to bring Josh Norman along.

 

31. Buffalo Bills (f/ Den): Vernon Butler-DL/Louisiana Tech

 

Butler offers the full profile of traits that Rex Ryan loves: big frame, great quickness, excellent length, and versatile skillset. He can play as far out as 7-tech, or align as a 1-tech nose. He knows how to use his long arms to bench press guards and tackles, and closes quickly when penetrating. He’s also an effort player. I can envision Butler and Dareus as interchangeable pieces that bounce from 5-tech to 3-tech to 1-tech, giving opposing QBs fits when trying to identify their fronts.

Edited April 25, 2016 by thebandit27

[Coach Tuesday]

Great work, as always. If it shakes out this way, though, I think they take Reed instead of Butler at 31.

[Dr. Who]

Seems rational enough. I am ambivalent about the Bills' scenario. Unlike you, I like Lynch, so I would want them to stay and take him at #19.

On the other hand, I really like Butler and would be pleased with a move back and extra pick that landed one of the most versatile D-line players in the draft.

[Blokestradamus]

This sucks. Delete it, start over again.

[FireChan]

Nice job, bandito.

[Wayne Cubed]

Nice Bandito, appreciate the work you've put into it.

[BringBackFergy]

Interesting take on the Browns trading down, then trading back up. Makes sense. Nice work Bandit.

[ALF]

I would like that trade to 31 just fine.

 

Steelers were interested in Joseph also.

[Kirby Jackson]

Great stuff as always Bandit!! It makes perfect sense and would seem to be something Bills fans would be happy with.

[John from Riverside]

I like it....

[GunnerBill]

I like it too. Some not all that different thinking from my final version which I all but completed yesterday and will post on Wednesday. The players you have in the 1st are VERY similar to me.

 

The three I don't have are Dodd (honestly don't think teams love him as much as the hype), Butler (though he makes perfect sense in the trade down scenario you suggest) and Joseph (who I had got mocked in the first in my version 1 I posted back in Feb but misses the cut in v.3).

[Luxy312]

Nice work, but for the Bills, there's definitely some missing logic based on the pre-draft visitors. I'm not saying that it's a lock, but the Bills first draft pick for the last 10 years in a row have been visitors to the team. To boot, Buffalo has visited 8 guys that grade out around top-20 picks, of which you only have 4 of those guys going in advance of the Bills pick at #19. What I really don't care for with this "trade down" scenario is that there's two DT's that grade out a LOT higher than Vernon Butler that are still there in Sheldon Rankins and Jarran Reed. To boot, they just visited with Taylor Decker, who is the only guy you suggested they would pick at #19 that could be the pick. They did meet with Joseph, but he grades out to a second rounder, making him a huge reach in the first. Same with Chris Jones, who they haven't met with. Doctson hasn't visited either and I seriously doubt a WR will be a priority for at least the first 3 rounds. They've met with exactly 1 WR out of the 22 guys visiting OBD and that was projected 3-4th round pick Kolby Listenbee.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Excellent stuff. Don't know where else you post this, but if you want you can correct the houston explanation in sentence two you meant Hopkins I think.

[Maury Ballstein]

Bust !!!

[KOKBILLS]

I like it...And I like Butler...

 

I would stand pat and take Jones at #19 because I'm admittedly enamored with his upside...But getting Butler as consolation is certainly not bad...And the extra picks are huge!!!

[John from Riverside]

I like it...And I like Butler...

 

I would stand pat and take Jones at #19 because I'm admittedly enamored with his upside...But getting Butler as consolation is certainly not bad...And the extra picks are huge!!!

To me it is all about what is being offered....anything less then denver's 2nd round pick I would just stand firm and take Jones

[KOKBILLS]

To me it is all about what is being offered....anything less then denver's 2nd round pick I would just stand firm and take Jones

 

Agree 100%!

[CommonCents]

Well written and good explanations, thanks. I would like to hear your reasoning on Zeke. It seemed like you almost sent him to Dallas but then went with Bozo. Zeke is a perfect fit for that oline and frail QB, plus JJ loves toys and doesn't do things the conventional way.

Edited April 25, 2016 by Commonsense

[thebandit27]

Excellent stuff. Don't know where else you post this, but if you want you can correct the houston explanation in sentence two you meant Hopkins I think.

 

Great catch...thanks.

[BaaadThingsMan]

Good stuff and nice catch with Denver to 19. I don't think I've seen that mocked but it makes sense, hope the return is good.

[thebandit27]

Nice work, but for the Bills, there's definitely some missing logic based on the pre-draft visitors. I'm not saying that it's a lock, but the Bills first draft pick for the last 10 years in a row have been visitors to the team. To boot, Buffalo has visited 8 guys that grade out around top-20 picks, of which you only have 4 of those guys going in advance of the Bills pick at #19. What I really don't care for with this "trade down" scenario is that there's two DT's that grade out a LOT higher than Vernon Butler that are still there in Sheldon Rankins and Jarran Reed. To boot, they just visited with Taylor Decker, who is the only guy you suggested they would pick at #19 that could be the pick. They did meet with Joseph, but he grades out to a second rounder, making him a huge reach in the first. Same with Chris Jones, who they haven't met with. Doctson hasn't visited either and I seriously doubt a WR will be a priority for at least the first 3 rounds. They've met with exactly 1 WR out of the 22 guys visiting OBD and that was projected 3-4th round pick Kolby Listenbee.

 

Butler did visit, though I don't think they're married to the philosophy of having to meet with a guy.

 

Also, I don't have Rankins ahead of Butler for multiple-front teams. Butler, for me, ranks way ahead of Reed on all of my boards, but that's JMO.

 

Thanks for the comments!

I like it too. Some not all that different thinking from my final version which I all but completed yesterday and will post on Wednesday. The players you have in the 1st are VERY similar to me.

 

The three I don't have are Dodd (honestly don't think teams love him as much as the hype), Butler (though he makes perfect sense in the trade down scenario you suggest) and Joseph (who I had got mocked in the first in my version 1 I posted back in Feb but misses the cut in v.3).

 

You and I tend to think alike draft-wise.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

If we can add an impact lineman there, and add an extra 2nd. That'd give us 3 shots in the first 60 or so picks. Huge add pick-wise.

 

Draft's deep in the front 7 too - we could end up with 2 or 3 new faces.

Edited April 25, 2016 by dneveu

[Coach Tuesday]

 

Butler did visit, though I don't think they're married to the philosophy of having to meet with a guy.

 

Also, I don't have Rankins ahead of Butler for multiple-front teams. Butler, for me, ranks way ahead of Reed on all of my boards, but that's JMO.

 

Thanks for the comments!

 

You and I tend to think alike draft-wise.

 

Maybe so - I just get the impression that the Bills are much higher on Reed...

[thebandit27]

Well written and good explanations, thanks. I would like to hear your reasoning on Zeke. It seemed like you almost sent him to Dallas but then went with Bozo. Zeke is a perfect fit for that oline and frail QB, plus JJ loves toys and doesn't do things the conventional way.

 

Jerry does love toys; thing is, he actually has a tremendous personnel guy running the show in Will McClay, who's talked him out of picks like Johnny Manziel in favor of headier picks like Zach Martin and Travis Frederick.

 

I think it comes down to need vs. value--I think they'll be fine with Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden at RB, and if not, they could likely grab Derrick Henry in the 2nd or Devontae Booker in the 3rd.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Butler did visit, though I don't think they're married to the philosophy of having to meet with a guy.

 

Also, I don't have Rankins ahead of Butler for multiple-front teams. Butler, for me, ranks way ahead of Reed on all of my boards, but that's JMO.

 

Thanks for the comments!

 

You and I tend to think alike draft-wise.

Me too, he is a lot more versatile.

 

I put a lot of stock into Sr. Bowl week as it is one of the only times that "the playing field is leveled" for lack of a better term. Butler had an outstanding week and did so against some highly regarded OL. In addition, he jumped off the screen to me in the couple of LA Tech games that I watched. His size and versatility makes him appealing to me.

[thebandit27]

 

Maybe so - I just get the impression that the Bills are much higher on Reed...

 

That may indeed be the case--I'd be slightly disappointed by that.

Me too, he is a lot more versatile.

 

I put a lot of stock into Sr. Bowl week as it is one of the only times that "the playing field is leveled" for lack of a better term. Butler had an outstanding week and did so against some highly regarded OL. In addition, he jumped off the screen to me in the couple of LA Tech games that I watched. His size and versatility makes him appealing to me.

 

Yeah--versatility is huge with Rex. He's also got the ideal body type for what Rex likes--he's long-limbed and thick through his upper body.

 

As far as interior linemen that they have a realistic shot at with the 19th pick, Butler's right behind Chris Jones for me.

[Kirby Jackson]

Well written and good explanations, thanks. I would like to hear your reasoning on Zeke. It seemed like you almost sent him to Dallas but then went with Bozo. Zeke is a perfect fit for that oline and frail QB, plus JJ loves toys and doesn't do things the conventional way.

While this is true, I think Zeke is being miscast a little as a luxury. This isn't like a Spiller or Tavon Austin type of "weapon" in the top 10. It is closer to Adrian Peterson in terms of being just a great football. In fact, some have him as the highest graded back since Peterson almost a decade ago.

 

Zeke might be the best football player in this draft. He is a complete back and scored a 32 on the wonderlic. He is explosive, shifty, a finisher with great vision and one of the best blocking backs ever graded. I am certainly a bit of a homer on him but he will be a home run for whoever takes him.

 

That may indeed be the case--I'd be slightly disappointed by that.

 

Yeah--versatility is huge with Rex. He's also got the ideal body type for what Rex likes--he's long-limbed and thick through his upper body.

 

As far as interior linemen that they have a realistic shot at with the 19th pick, Butler's right behind Chris Jones for me.

I like Jones as well. I am not too enthused about any of the Alabama guys there.

[GunnerBill]

 

You and I tend to think alike draft-wise.

 

Indeed. Even a couple of the matches you have - Floyd to Chicago and Spence to Arizona I have had and then changed. Version 3 that I will post is actually about version 6.... I had a v.3 I was pretty happy with before the Philly trade then spent Friday evening putting a new one together. Wasn't happy with it, it just didn't feel right then the revised version Saturday did... with just a couple of picks giving me pause for thought and finally Sunday I nailed one I like.

 

I am waiting until Wednesday just in case the rumour mill churns something out late.... 2 years ago I got burned with a final version going early and by the Wednesday it was pretty clear the Bills were in serious negotiations about trading up.

[thebandit27]

 

Indeed. Even a couple of the matches you have - Floyd to Chicago and Spence to Arizona I have had and then changed. Version 3 that I will post is actually about version 6.... I had a v.3 I was pretty happy with before the Philly trade then spent Friday evening putting a new one together. Wasn't happy with it, it just didn't feel right then the revised version Saturday did... with just a couple of picks giving me pause for thought and finally Sunday I nailed one I like.

 

I am waiting until Wednesday just in case the rumour mill churns something out late.... 2 years ago I got burned with a final version going early and by the Wednesday it was pretty clear the Bills were in serious negotiations about trading up.

 

Haha--I hear that...at some point I just cut the cord and post it, mostly so that I can finish any last-minute evaluations of guys I don't feel great about. This usually means that I'm reviewing a few guys that I think may end up in Buffalo that I didn't previously like; trying to talk myself into liking them

[Rubes]

So if Denver trades up with us for that pick, what would we most likely get in return?

[thebandit27]

So if Denver trades up with us for that pick, what would we most likely get in return?

 

It's almost an exact match in points for the #63 selection--which Denver owns

[DrDawkinstein]

 

It's almost an exact match in points for the #63 selection--which Denver owns

 

So it's:

 

#19, #49 vs. #31, #49, #63

 

Hrrmm...

[FireChan]

 

So it's:

 

#19, #49 vs. #31, #49, #63

 

Hrrmm...

I run to the phone for this.

Edited April 25, 2016 by FireChan

[Kirby Jackson]

 

So it's:

 

#19, #49 vs. #31, #49, #63

 

Hrrmm...

In this draft I would take 31,49 & 63

[KOKBILLS]

 

Maybe so - I just get the impression that the Bills are much higher on Reed...

 

Could be...I do have the feeling the Bills are being a little more covert this year knowing the word is out that they Draft guys who visit a lot...

 

I'm definitely on board with Bandit on the Butler over Reed...Not sure about Rankins though...I agree he's a bit limited, but he's so disruptive, despite his size...

 

I like Chris Jones better than any of them though...

[DrDawkinstein]

In this draft I would take 31,49 & 63

 

Yeah, I get it, with the depth at DL, LB, etc...

 

I like the Butler pick (maybe even better than Chris Jones in the 1st). But who are we adding in the 2nd? Does Cravens and/or Vonn Bell make it that far?

 

If we wanted to move back up in the 2nd, how far up would #63 and 1 of our 4th rounders get us? Trade back in the 1st to pick up an extra pick, then use that to move up in the 2nd and get the guys we want.

Edited April 25, 2016 by DrDareustein

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Yeah, I get it, with the depth at DL, LB, etc...

 

I like the Butler pick (maybe even better than Chris Jones in the 1st). But who are we adding in the 2nd? Does Cravens and/or Vonn Bell make it that far?

 

If we wanted to move back up in the 2nd, how far up would #63 and 1 of our 4th rounders get us? Trade back in the 1st to pick up an extra pick, then use that to move up in the 2nd and get the guys we want.

I think that there would be a reasonable chance that you could get both if that's what you wanted. If the Bills walked out of the 1st 2 rounds with something like Butler, Michael Thomas and Cravens I would be thrilled.

 

Here is the draft value chart: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

[thebandit27]

 

Yeah, I get it, with the depth at DL, LB, etc...

 

I like the Butler pick (maybe even better than Chris Jones in the 1st). But who are we adding in the 2nd? Does Cravens and/or Vonn Bell make it that far?

 

If we wanted to move back up in the 2nd, how far up would #63 and 1 of our 4th rounders get us? Trade back in the 1st to pick up an extra pick, then use that to move up in the 2nd and get the guys we want.

 

I don't have either Cravens or Bell making it to 49. I think there's a small chance of Correa getting there, and he'd be my ideal pick at that point.

 

To go from 63 to, say, 43, you're talking about having to give up a 3rd round pick--a 4th round pick will help you jump about 7 spots in the 2nd round.

 

If Correa doesn't get to 49, I think you take a long look at Tyler Boyd (if you want to go offense), or you could go with a Kyler Fackrell type if he suits your fancy. I'd be plenty willing to move from 49 to 42 using a 4th round pick if it means getting Correa. I think if you choose to go in another direction at 49, you might look to Shilique Calhoun at 63 under my scenario.

[bisonbrigade]

Per Drafttek trade chart 19th pick is worth Denver's 31st and 63rd picks.

 

31st Jarran Reed DT Alabama

49th Von Bell SS Ohio ST

63rd Kamalei Correa OLB

80th Cyrus Jones CB Alabama

117th Charone Peake WR Clemson

139th Kevin Hogan QB Stanford

156th Antonio Morrison ILB Florida

192nd Aziz Shittu DE Stanford

[thebandit27]

I think that there would be a reasonable chance that you could get both if that's what you wanted. If the Bills walked out of the 1st 2 rounds with something like Butler, Michael Thomas and Cravens I would be thrilled.

 

Here is the draft value chart: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

 

I have Bell going 41 to Chicago right now...Cravens I just can't place. He strikes me as a TB-type, so that's a possibility, but I also think he could end up in Oakland at 44.

 

2nd round is so tough to predict, because that's when all kinds of trades start to go down.