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Moneyball and the Browns


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I agree with all this.

 

DePodesta is smart - smart enough to understand football is a different beast than baseball.

 

Innovation often comes with desperation. The Browns have never played in a Super Bowl and have earned a miserable 87-185 record since reestablishing the franchise in 1999. Why wouldn't the Browns try something new?

 

It'll be an interesting experiment.

But this is scary...

 

HASLAM'S NEW COMMITMENT to Money(foot)-ball model evident in restructuring of Browns front office into Harvard West. DePodesta reports only to owner. Final say on 53-man roster now belongs to Sashi Brown, 39, fellow Harvard grad and Browns' former general counsel who worked on salary cap and player contracts. Brown, in turn, hired Harvard grad and former Colts pro scouting coordinator Andrew Berry, 28, to be Cleveland's VP of player personnel. Browns' top analytics mind, Ken Kovash, promoted to director of football research and player personnel. Fourth Harvard grad, Kevin Meers, is now team's head research analyst. In total, three of top four decision makers have no NFL scouting or roster-building experience. Cleveland brain trust now unlike anything else in football, which is exactly the point.

 

To be fair, have you looked at the Browns roster - can you really make the claim that they previous regimes had any scouting roster-building experience?

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Scouts who aren't being retained are usually let go the week after the draft when a new regime comes in. Very unorthodox to do it 3 weeks before the draft.

That's because contracts for scouts typically run from May to May. The Browns just told the scouts that weren't being retained the news a few weeks early. Their jobs for the year were finished and all of their predraft work had been turned in. That situation isn't unusual at all. It's being portrayed as something crazy and stupid by some media because that's the default every time the Browns do anything. Heck, usually it's a good bet. In this case it's nothing. The Browns did the scouts a favor by giving them a jump on job seeking - while being paid through the end of their contracts.

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That's because contracts for scouts typically run from May to May. The Browns just told the scouts that weren't being retained the news a few weeks early. Their jobs for the year were finished and all of their predraft work had been turned in. That situation isn't unusual at all. It's being portrayed as something crazy and stupid by some media because that's the default every time the Browns do anything. Heck, usually it's a good bet. In this case it's nothing. The Browns did the scouts a favor by giving them a jump on job seeking - while being paid through the end of their contracts.

i think the reason it was looked at as unorthodox is that the scouts have team draft information that they are now reportedly sharing with other teams. All 6 were college scouts. That is why they usually don't let them go until May.

 

I'm not saying it's horrible, but the timing is unorthodox. It's not about the Browns. I look at the same way I did the bills waiting until March to fire their DL coach. Weird timing.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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To be fair, have you looked at the Browns roster - can you really make the claim that they previous regimes had any scouting roster-building experience?

 

I admit I laughed when I read this. Good point.

 

The first game I ever watched from beginning to end was a Browns - not Bills - game back during the 1968 playoffs. Their opponent was the Dallas Cowboys. This was when the Browns ruled the Century Division while the 'Boys were kings of the Capitol Division.

 

Because the Browns were losing early, I rooted for them and they rallied to beat the 'Boys. I've had a soft spot for the Brownies ever since.

 

It's obvious that I live under a curse when my favorite NFL team is the Bills and my next favorite is the Browns. I must have done something unspeakable in a previous life.

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I admit I laughed when I read this. Good point.

 

The first game I ever watched from beginning to end was a Browns - not Bills - game back during the 1968 playoffs. Their opponent was the Dallas Cowboys. This was when the Browns ruled the Century Division while the 'Boys were kings of the Capitol Division.

 

Because the Browns were losing early, I rooted for them and they rallied to beat the 'Boys. I've had a soft spot for the Brownies ever since.

 

It's obvious that I live under a curse when my favorite NFL team is the Bills and my next favorite is the Browns. I must have done something unspeakable in a previous life.

 

Remind me to never get in an airplane with you.

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I admit I laughed when I read this. Good point.

 

The first game I ever watched from beginning to end was a Browns - not Bills - game back during the 1968 playoffs. Their opponent was the Dallas Cowboys. This was when the Browns ruled the Century Division while the 'Boys were kings of the Capitol Division.

 

Because the Browns were losing early, I rooted for them and they rallied to beat the 'Boys. I've had a soft spot for the Brownies ever since.

 

It's obvious that I live under a curse when my favorite NFL team is the Bills and my next favorite is the Browns. I must have done something unspeakable in a previous life.

 

Nothing beats memories from growing up, especially with teams that you rooted for like crazy. those are 2 rough teams you chose; I really hope you a re a Yankees fan or something to help balance it out.... :beer:

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That's my point about a pass, a completion is good and incompletion is bad. But there are many datapoints that effect the result and I don't understand how you collect and assess them to come up with a value added result beyond what could be determined by a person. Not saying it can't be done, just seems like a larger set of variables than baseball because of the team nature of the sport including a playbook etc.

 

Also for example, a few years ago Kavika (sp?) Mitchell was called out on twitter for not making a play in the pass defense. It certainly looked like it could have been his fault but according to him it was not his responsibility. How do you assess a player when you don't know the responsibilities and how well they were followed?

A guy might play 1000 snaps per season. Maybe he's a factor in a quarter of them. You could spend one day on a guy and watch every play in his entire season and still spend 30 seconds per play measuring whatever you want.

 

Don't assume these guys only have the stats on ESPN.com to work from.

Edited by over 20 years of fanhood
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This sounds like something Russ Brandon would drum up.

 

Football is too much of a team sport for most positions to be evaluated by data, unlike baseball which is far more individualized, especially in terms of batting, on base percentage etc.

 

What the Browns are doing reminds of what companies have to go through when some VP decides to hire consultants to come in. Everything gets shaken up, huge process improvements are promised, and in the end everything ends up back the way it was being done in the first place.

 

The Browns have an awful drafting history since I can remember, so I guess there's nothing to lose.....

 

or worse

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i think the reason it was looked at as unorthodox is that the scouts have team draft information that they are now reportedly sharing with other teams. All 6 were college scouts. That is why they usually don't let them go until May.

I'm not saying it's horrible, but the timing is unorthodox. It's not about the Browns. I look at the same way I did the bills waiting until March to fire their DL coach. Weird timing.

They could certainly share their own work, but I'm told they haven't been privy to the composite work at the top (draft board, final decisions, etc.). Under Farmer and previous regimes there was a lot of information leaked so I'll be interested to see whether or not that is the case this draft. Edited by BarleyNY
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I just see too many variables in football for this to work. Let's think of reasons 1st rounders bust: not enough talent, injuries, no desire to be their best, incompetent coaches, drafted for wrong offensive/defensive scheme. Half of these reasons analytics will not be able to measure or predict.

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Don't draft or trade for players with substance abuse or off field issues

 

Don't draft players who had serious injuries . Kujo for one

 

The Bills lucked out with Richie and Thurman Thomas

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I dont think football is a good fit for an analytics-driven organization. An analytics department might be good. Can add a lot of information, but ultimately, football has a miniscule sample space compared to the other sports. 16 games... 12 for NCAA. In NCAA you have a number of mis-matches in any given season. You also often need to compare players from very different conferences/levels. Unlike other sports, you are drafting guys directly to your pro roster.

There is also quite a bit of 'situational' variables like 'garbage time', maybe the player is banged up. Maybe his match-up was banged-up, etc. Then you have the all-important personality issues. Is the player going to get pulled over with drugs and a gun before camp? Is the player smart enough? Will he grasp the NFL? Is he too smart where he is going to figure out he should retire after a year or two?

 

 

If I were Pegula/Brandon... I would put most of the analytics eggs into cap and roster management. Historical NFL cross sections on age, roster makeup, production, % of the cap, bonuses, etc. That is where its at

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