Do you know who disagrees with you that the Bills season is over?

[atlbillsfan1975]

As my father use to always say about vegas ' they do not build those big building because they lose'. So i get your point. I also know it can change day to day and week to week. IF the Bills get killed this week again, i would believe those odds would go down again.

But when you look around the league you have some darn good teams with the same record or worse the the Bills. Look at the Saints, Packers,Detroit, Pitts, Denver etc... These were playoff teams a year ago and thought to be very good teams this year.

Parity is alive and well in the NFL.

I have watched almost every Falcons game, and they are a good but very beatable team. Not sure about Texans, i have not seen any games of theirs yet.

The Bills seem like a team in need of some one to step up and be the leader. i think Dareus would be that guy but unfortunately his brothers death has left him dealing with much more important things.

Fitz stinks and the team knows it. You can see Stevie pissed off.

So yes i think Vegas is holding on to something. They know the talent this team has, and IF they can come up with a big win and pull together i think they can make a run.

[MDH]

With that list, could it also mean their the 10th best team out of 16 in the Conference?

 

Vegas isn't disagreeing with people here. They're looking at records. All teams with a worse record than the Bills have worse odds (Chiefs, Browns, Titans, Jags and Raiders). The only team with an equal or better record than the Bills right now who has worse odds is the team that finished with the worst record in football last year (Colts.)

 

I fail to see the point being made.

[2003Contenders]

The one thing that I will say is this: The Vegas folks have been right on the money when predicting the Bills straight up every week. Theteam was only favored in 2 games so far -- and they won each of those games and lost the other 3.

 

Looking back and heading into the season, I think most of us probably had them losing to the Jets and 49ers on the road and HOPING they would beat the Pats at home. So even the most optimistic of us probably had them at 3-2 at this point -- and most probably at 2-3, which is where they are. Sadly, I think most of us would have hoped for at least for a better showing in those predicted losses.

[first_and_ten]

The one thing that I will say is this: The Vegas folks have been right on the money when predicting the Bills straight up every week. Theteam was only favored in 2 games so far -- and they won each of those games and lost the other 3.

 

Looking back and heading into the season, I think most of us probably had them losing to the Jets and 49ers on the road and HOPING they would beat the Pats at home. So even the most optimistic of us probably had them at 3-2 at this point -- and most probably at 2-3, which is where they are. Sadly, I think most of us would have hoped for at least for a better showing in those predicted losses.

 

Yes, it's definately not that they lost but how they lost that's most distressing. I seriously wonder how thay can recover from those last two losses. I have been a fan for over 40 years and those are probably the worst two losses back to back I've ever experienced as a fan. They almost made me want to quit being a fan.

[xsoldier54]

Las freaking Vegas.

 

The whining, the crying, the pissing and moaning that the wheels have completely fallen off and the team is 11 games away from becoming the Los Angeles Bills has reached fever pitch here.

 

Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle, twobillsdrive.com is an overwhelming display of vaginal and hormonal imbalance.

 

But for the people out west who rig the game, pay off the refs, and pressure Goodell into destroying video tapes that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the game is controlled by factors other than blood, sweat and tears from these proud gladiators on the field (see: spygate,) they see the rest of the season playing out like this:

 

In order of odds win the American Football Conference:

1) Texans

2) Patriots

3) Ravens

4) Chargers/Broncos

5/6) Steelers, Chargers/Broncos

7) Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,New York Jets,Cincinnati Bengals

 

So the Vegas money, RIGHT NOW, the morning when most of you woke up ready to call direct tv to cancel your Sunday ticket, has the bills as a not very profitable prop bet to get a wildcard.

 

i repeat: if you go to las vegas and try to place a prop bet at one of the casinos on the Bills getting a 6 seed, you would get essentially a push bet.

 

Meaning Vegas, who's business it is to be right about these things... literally, it is their source of profit... thinks it's a safe bet the Bills will contend for a wild card spot.

 

I want you to think about that for awhile, before you respond with the "big whoop, that doesnt mean anything."

 

Because if you've ever gambled before... you would know... it means EVERYTHING.

 

no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them.

 

So... go ahead and flame away, and talk about how bad our defense is, and how my head is up my ass, and on and on and on. Every gambler knows, its the emotional ones who make stupid bets - like bills fans. But the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot.

OK, you win. Our defense is really bad and your head is completely up your ass. No way this team makes the playoffs.

[HOUSE]

The world is saved...

 

On to Global warming and world starvation

Edited October 8, 2012 by HOUSE

[truth on hold]

If history is any guide its not over. There have been plenty of teams that get off to iffy starts and turn it around. A win next this Sunday and we're back to .500 with a schedule that looks somewhat easier in 2nd half. The problem in this case its hard to get behind a team that lacks a QB with NFL talent, and a HC that should (at best) be an OC and consistently makes very bad decisions at key points during a game.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Las freaking Vegas.

 

The whining, the crying, the pissing and moaning that the wheels have completely fallen off and the team is 11 games away from becoming the Los Angeles Bills has reached fever pitch here.

 

Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle, twobillsdrive.com is an overwhelming display of vaginal and hormonal imbalance.

 

But for the people out west who rig the game, pay off the refs, and pressure Goodell into destroying video tapes that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the game is controlled by factors other than blood, sweat and tears from these proud gladiators on the field (see: spygate,) they see the rest of the season playing out like this:

 

In order of odds win the American Football Conference:

1) Texans

2) Patriots

3) Ravens

4) Chargers/Broncos

5/6) Steelers, Chargers/Broncos

7) Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,New York Jets,Cincinnati Bengals

 

So the Vegas money, RIGHT NOW, the morning when most of you woke up ready to call direct tv to cancel your Sunday ticket, has the bills as a not very profitable prop bet to get a wildcard.

 

i repeat: if you go to las vegas and try to place a prop bet at one of the casinos on the Bills getting a 6 seed, you would get essentially a push bet.

 

Meaning Vegas, who's business it is to be right about these things... literally, it is their source of profit... thinks it's a safe bet the Bills will contend for a wild card spot.

 

I want you to think about that for awhile, before you respond with the "big whoop, that doesnt mean anything."

 

Because if you've ever gambled before... you would know... it means EVERYTHING.

 

no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them.

 

So... go ahead and flame away, and talk about how bad our defense is, and how my head is up my ass, and on and on and on. Every gambler knows, its the emotional ones who make stupid bets - like bills fans. But the house money is on the Bills to be RIGHT THERE in week 17 for a wild card spot.

 

Those guys are dumber than I thought .

[djp14150]

It doesnt matter how you lose...a loss is a loss....

 

In the schedule many predicted Buffalo losing at San Fran, at Houston, spliting against the Jets, swept against the Pats...and through in another loss and you are at 10-6 which makes you a good shot as a playoff team. Without that loss they are 11-5...near certain playoff team.

[ALF]

Injuries this early in the season don't look good to make the playoffs, but we will see.

[Nukethis]

.

 

 

<YAWN>

Another Vegas conspiracy threat Bozo who thinks he has "inside info". These dummies are helpless as kids on their 1st day of school. He should go back to watching A&E or Discovery and tivo all the shows with conspiracies. Lets help him out here.......1. 9/11 was Planned by the US Government

2. UFO Recovered at Roswell

3. John F. Kennedy’s Assasination

4. Global Warming

5. Princess Diana was Murdered by the Royal Family

6. The NFL hates the Buffalo Bills and conspires against them.

7. Apollo Moon Landing Hoax

8. Pearl Harbor Was Allowed to Happen

9. The Third Secret of Fatima

10. The Philadelphia Experiment

[Maury Ballstein]

Let me summarize with an easy formula

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick plus a football = no playoffs

[xsoldier54]

It doesnt matter how you lose...a loss is a loss....

 

In the schedule many predicted Buffalo losing at San Fran, at Houston, spliting against the Jets, swept against the Pats...and through in another loss and you are at 10-6 which makes you a good shot as a playoff team. Without that loss they are 11-5...near certain playoff team.

Keep dreaming. This team is not only bad, it has one of the worst defenses in the history of the league. No way this team makes the playoffs.

[Homey D. Clown]

let me know what Vegas oddsmakers think 3 weeks from now. I'll check back for your update.

[Gordio]

see, now someone like THIS is why las vegas is an oasis in the middle of the desert, and the mob has multi million dollar palaces of neon lights and hookers-because people watch a game like last night, over react, and rush to bury a team... when there are literally hundreds of factors that influence prop betting - (not all of which are "legal.")

 

as i said, their record of predictions far outpaces yours.

 

 

 

you make it sound like this is peter king and john clayton sitting at starbucks putting out these lines.

 

everything you said is true, but theyre not ready to risk, what?

 

its a little more important than a blog post they're not willing to risk...

 

theyre not willing to risk the billions and billions of dollars that flow through the city in bets that the bills are a bad team.

 

we whine and cry on here, and for collateral, were willing to risk you tube videos, avatars and signatures.

 

they make cold, calculated moves, and are NOT willing to risk billions of dollars that the bills season is over.

 

this has nothing to do with my "enthusiasm," its just cold, hard numbers.

 

Vegas makes so much money on prop bets it should be illegal. The prop bet clearly plays on fans emotions rather then their brains. My guess is that 99% of these placed wagers never pay out. My one story on prop bets. I was in Vegas in March right before the start of MLB. I am a lifelong Mets fan(yes I know can I honestly have picked 2 worst run franchises then the Bills/Mets) this was in 2006. I put $200 on the Mets to win the pennant in the National League. They were one of the favorites that year going off @ 5:1. Well we moved a month later & I ended up losing the ticket. They ended up making it to the NLCS against the Cardinals. I was sick about losing the ticket & actually was routing against them. How messed up is that? When it went to Game 7 & Beltran struck out against Waignwright with the tying & winning runs on base to end the game, I was actually relieved. I go to Vegas every year but I will never play a prop bet again.

[CSBill]

 

Much like women in an Aboriginal tribe who have locked into the same menstrual cycle . . .

 

WHAT ????

[Haven Moses]

I'm surprised that we are only getting 4.5 in Arizona.

[QB Bills]

I'm not sure that's how this works. I'm not a big gambler, but I think odds are based on what side people are betting on, not what Vegas thinks is going to happen. They make their money on the juice, so the idea is that they want to have an equal amount of money at risk for both sides. That's why lines are always moving.

[DrDawkinstein]

No read, just post:

 

"Of course, it hurts. But we'll collect ourselves. We're family. We'll stick together. We'll let everybody on the outside world tear us up right now and pay it no mind. But come the end of the year, they'll be ready to jump on our bandwagon."- CJ Spiller.

[BuffOrange]

It doesnt matter how you lose...a loss is a loss....

 

In the schedule many predicted Buffalo losing at San Fran, at Houston, spliting against the Jets, swept against the Pats...and through in another loss and you are at 10-6 which makes you a good shot as a playoff team. Without that loss they are 11-5...near certain playoff team.

 

Except that is one of those silly media-created cliches. Point differential is a proven superior predictor of the future than record.

 

Now you'd still rather be 2-3 with 3 blowout losses than 1-4 w/ 4 heartbreakers because 1 game is a big deal in a 16game sample. But it's impossible to not be more pessimistic than before the season after the 5 games we've seen.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

no offense... actually, i dont care if I offend you... vegas is right about professional football a HELL of a lot more than ANYONE ive ever seen predict ANYTHING 3 months out on this board. If they werent, you would be the billionaire building hotels in the middle of the desert - not them.

 

Odds can be ADJUSTED based on conditions... and so if suddenly a team collapsed, those odds would not change?

 

Continue living in your bubble.

[Bronc24]

Do you ever think that Vegas might be looking for an idiot like you who will see the last half of our schedule and put money on the Bills? That is how casinos get built.

[Kaz]

Do you ever think that Vegas might be looking for an idiot like you who will see the last half of our schedule and put money on the Bills? That is how casinos get built.

 

I think one of Johnny Gold's main points is that you would NOT make decent money betting on the Bills to make the playoffs.

 

I don't know why everyone is getting their panties in a bunch over this topic. For one, I think it's a heckuva lot more interesting than any of the normal crap topics that keep getting regurgitated during the week.

[akm0404]

Didn't read through the whole thread, but the OP has no idea how gambling works.

 

Vegas has nothing to do with being right or wrong, they merely set the line to attract half of the action on any bet to both sides. They don't win by "being right", they win by setting a line that entices half to take each side, to guarantee their profit by the vig or juice.

 

The more you know.

 

Edit: The Bills have no chance to make the playoffs. Do you really watch these games and see a playoff team? Come on.

Edited October 9, 2012 by akm0404

[Mr. WEO]

I think one of Johnny Gold's main points is that you would NOT make decent money betting on the Bills to make the playoffs.

 

I don't know why everyone is getting their panties in a bunch over this topic. For one, I think it's a heckuva lot more interesting than any of the normal crap topics that keep getting regurgitated during the week.

 

No, his main point was to tell us that since there is a betting line today for the Bills making the playoffs we should cheer up because Vegas "knows" things, or something.

 

His subsequent threads were spent proving what many suspected--that he didn't really know what he was talking about. Many people pointing this out doesn't equal "panties in a bunch". In fact the only interesting thing about this thread was how whacky is sounded and is.