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The NFL will not disclose their formula. Overthecap seemed to have it nailed down, but not on that pick. Edmunds missed some time this season and playing time factors into the formula. Total speculation on my part, but that may have been it. He was calculated as giving us the lowest 3rd round comp pick - other than the ones given to teams that have minority GMs and HCs hired away.

Is Edmunds even aloud to drink beer yet?

Yep , I would say that’s as well. The jags always give the bills issues and are above.500 against them I believe. Funny how bills homies are so ready to be critical of other teams receiving corps , yet we suffered watching a season with the two fa’s from the fins do essentially nothing, Knox has continued to be an enigma, our wr 1 falling of in productivity drastically during the second halves of the 2 preceding seasons, our great hands rb continuing to drop wide open passes and have fumble issues. Plus , guys w blinders on forget the game that Jax easily beat our bills last year as even the now released zay jones even caught a TD during that game. Just saying , having been a bills fan my whole life , but at the same time having been an original jags season ticket holder to support the community and Jax’s bid to stay an NFL site to enhance the cities financial development , I’ve had to watch the jags beat the bills in playoff games ( ending Kelly’s career etc) and beat the bills even as the jags had inferior talent and it’s been a sad experience too often over the years. Better watch what you wish for as the bills really are in no position to criticize any receiving corp given the WRs beane has supported or, better to say failed to support Josh with at least up until this point. Plus remember Gabe was here as Dorsey misused most players and had to be fired. All I am suggesting is pedersen is a good hc/oc (he does have a Lombardi the bills franchise lacks ) , and has proven he can outcoach McDermott head to head , so GABE MAY indeed have untapped potential. Time will tell and should only be judged going forward as the past means nothing now. Sadly, one of my fav BILLS , Morse , has also added in JAX , and will add a lot of intelligence and stability to bolster one of the jags weaknesses. Really loved Morse as a BILL; guy was well spoken , humble, great leader and was good for josh who i think will also miss Morse. Have to admit these moves make Jax a more likeable team to follow locally even tho they are no where close to my BILLS fandom; it at least shows the owner is finally trying to win and thats been hard to believe with all the prior terrible squads they have fielded in the past. Jax is a small town except geographically, and many football guys live in the very wealthy ponte Vedra beach area or go to the TPC at sawgrass or the LODGE beach club in ponte vedra. I don’t live in those really wealthy areas but just in a non gated part of ponte vedra since ‘85 , and there is only one TARGET ( hey there are really great stores in the open mall area , but for some reason Targets still draws many high income shoppers. I know this having seen them but also from talks with cvs pharmacists in target who have shared w me ) in the area that surprisingly draws lots of people from those gated areas. ( funny, i posted when i met and had a great 15 min visit in that target with then Milano fiancé , now wife, as while traveling thru the area she came up to me as i was wearing a bills hat !). So , here’s hoping i get a chance to possibly run into Morse or Gabe out shopping and get a chance to talk a little BILLS football with them! Hate that they are no longer BILLS , but not sad they are now part of the city / community! Anyhow , just saying bills fans should temper their criticism of GABE/morse/ Jax , until they see the actual product and be honest that right at this moment , our wr corp is a big question mark and who knows how good any bills wr is given the misuse by the past oc’s. I think a case could be made GABE could be more productive in the future than our prior MLB Edmunds will be as a bear going forward. Again , time will tell, but as a BILLS fan, not looking forward to playing Jax next year as we often play poorly against them and they have already added 5 significant new starters via free agency; GABE might thrive on the jags roster as pedersen might get more out of him.

And so it then appears that it was no big deal Edmunds was let go then…, Odds are we will be fine with out Morse at center as well, being the coaches are capable of making changes at need…,

You seem to be able to see into the future.., or you just had a knee jerk reaction, remember Edmunds? And the hole 🕳 he supposedly would leave in our defense? In actuality it never happened …, and we got better because of him being let go…,

depends on how you look at it. It's a great signing for them at that price IMHO. I'm surprised he didn't get more. Directly, did we get worse? I would say probably since he has always been a great and steady player for us at C. Indirectly? we needed that cap space, which we need for now and the future. And the unknown part is how Conner McGovern will perform at C. When we lost Tremaine Edmunds we thought we'd have a significant drop off, and then enter Terrel Bernard who surprised us all.

No way am I giving epenesa 20 m sorry. I love his work but he lost a little flcred on talent evaluation with the Bernard and Edmunds takes.

If I understand the argument correctly, comp picks are based on what you lost. The playing time would be based on their contributions to the team prior to them moving on, 2022 in this case. Edmunds played 72% of the defensive snaps in '22, which would (by some people's theories) reduce by some factor what he was signed for. It is possible that playing time in both seasons matters too. However it is calculated, there is no reason for this information to be so secret. I could have lived with a 4th if Beane knew it at the beginning of the season or throughout the season what the likely outcomes were.

Edmunds missed 2 games. But he did still play 92% of defensive snaps for the Bears so if that was what knocked him down that feels like an incredibly high threshold. And yea, if it was that Jimmy G (also a 4th) being a pick ahead after playing far less is odd.

Edmunds extracts one final coup de grâce on his TBD-TSW enemies. "Take that, you jive turkeys!"

Because it would appear based on the 9ers also having the Jimmy G pick that was equally predicted as a third knocked down (see they were affected too) that time missed has taken both Edmunds and Garropolo out of the 3rd round range they were in by contract value and reduced them to round 4. And it has happened within weeks of the season ending. This coming Sunday will be 4 weeks on from the Superbowl.

Yes explaining how Jimmy G has more of an impact on the raiders when he was benched half the season over Tremaine Edmunds who started every game for the bears is mind boggling and after this news. I also think Beane is either 1 more active in free agency then he first thought or 2 now possibly plans on trading back to early round 2 to recomp a 3rd

It's mystifying. Edmunds was the fourth highest-paid LB last year and received the fifth biggest contract in FA in 2023. Is it all based on position? If so, LB is below D-line, o-line, WR, and QB in terms of AAV paid. The fact that the Bengals only got sixths for losing two top-level safeties suggestions that positional worth might be a factor. Bengals got only sixths for the two very good safeties they lost. I am starting to think that overall positional value plays a role.

Bengals fans are mad because they lost their starting safeties and only get two 6th round picks. I don’t know how much those two signed for in FA, but Beane was careful to navigate the cap to ensure we’d get a 3rd for Edmunds $18M/yr contract. He said he even spoke to people to make sure his signings weren’t jeopardizing that. Something does feel wrong here.

So is this the Edmunds pick?....it was always slated at 99?

This is irritating. Last year when Edmunds was walking there were so many people in terms of podcasters and posters on here saying we'd get a 3rd because it's a formula. So to those of you who said it would be a 3rd, what happened?

One theory I've seen is that the NFL supposedly factors in playing time with the comp pick formula. Edmunds missed time in 2022 so that may be the thing that screwed us. Man this really really sucks. Beane traded for Rasul Douglas because he thought we had another 3rd round pick.

That's true in a lot of ways. They signed Miller to be an impact player in 22 and 23 and hoped for the best after that. The writing was on the wall for Poyer and Hyde, although the timing was still unclear. Diggs would be in his prime, and they'd have Davis on a cheap contract. And remember, Edmunds was the start of the parade out the door. 2024 was always going to be like this. But as others have said, it just doesn't look to be too bad. The offense needs two players - a center or guard and a receiver. The defense needs a safety and probably a corner, although Douglas, Benford, Elam is a very nice fallback plan There are some things that would be nice, but that aren't essential. That's five players, with a tight but manageable cap budget and a boatload of picks. Beane will get Brady a receiver, and rest will be up to him. McDermott will get the defensive backfield together, and the Bills will be a contender.

Yeah, I agree. Belichick was the master at that. Over the years, I've developed two general rules about player retention. The rules are (1) let old talent go before they're done (only exception is a true franchise player who you drafted and who deserves to finish his career with your team), and (2) keep young talent until you're sure they've busted. It looks like Beane should have started on the old players a year ago, and done it a bit more gradually. Had to keep Morse, because the middle of the line was so unsettled. Had to keep White, because he could have come back and been a stud for several years. McGovern, Torrence, and Douglas made them expendable this year. Had to be Poyer last year, and Rapp could have taken on a bigger role more quickly. The best talent in free agency is first and second picks coming off their rookie deals, guys who have underperformed in some way, so their original team lets them walk. Work ethic and team orientation are great, gotta have it, but there's no substitute for size, strength, speed, talent - the stuff you find in the first two rounds. Elam is the current example of sticking with the underperforming young talent. The Bills need to keep working with him and see how he develops. Edmunds was the last example - Bills were sure about him by the time he left.

First of all, I am not trying to sway anyone to agree with me. I come here to talk about the Bills and football. I don't necessarily care whether or not you agree with my takes, and I'm quite certain that the feeling is mutual. That said, let's explore that trade a bit more, shall we? When McDermott made this trade, Beane was not there. Do you really think that McDermott was sure of Josh Allen being there for them in 2018? I make the case that they lucked into Josh. In that same draft (2018) they also traded up for Tre Edmunds. Good move? And if you think that the Bills received adequate compensation for the #10 pick, let's just agree to disagree. Going down 17 spots from a top 10 pick? For what they received? I don't think so. And really, it is up to professionals to recognize the best QB in football, not me and you. We are just fans with opinions enjoying ourselves, no? So you see? There is no need to be accusatory or hostile. Not every fan has to support and/or every dumb move, or even not so dumb move that the Bills make. We are fans, not cultish followers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome

Good point and Beane has shown he is not afraid to make trades on draft night. He traded up for Allen and Edmunds too if I remember correctly. Also, we have to see how FA plays out. If Allen restructures maybe the Bills can sign a quality FA or two.

Sorry but most fans have no loyalty to the players, personally I think your statement is way off. Players are always made out to be the enemy - Diggs, Miller, Edmunds, going back to players like Mario Williams....all of these guys ended up on fans sh*t lists. Most people are fans of teams, not of players. Teams aren't loyal to the players, why should the players be loyal to the team? Both sides know it's a business, and they are loyal up to a certain point.

Interesting comments. Yes, to all. I don't know, but I wouldn't say they have plans and backups and backups to the backups. I doubt they're really plans in the ordinary sense of the word. A plan is something that takes you to a defined ending. An engineer puts together a plan for the construction of the building. In that case, the end product is known, and the plan is how to get from where you are today to the final building. When the building is done, in all major respects the building comes out just like the original suggested it would. When Beane does is different. There isn't a defined end, with player A at this position and player B at that position. It's open-ended - assemble players that collectively can achieve what we want. When you say plans and subplans, I think what actually happens is like what Beane has described for the draft. He's not planning so much as he's playing out scenarios in his head. Who's likely to be available where I'm picking? Who would I take? What might I do if I trade up? Trade down? What if the guy I want isn't there? He described it well after his first draft. He had spent a day role playing a lot of different scenarios. He admitted that despite all of his preparation, no scenario involved getting Allen and then being able to get Edmunds, too. It's sort of like it's impossible to have a "plan" for a chess game. If you're playing white, you might be able to predict each of the six or eight moves, but sooner or later the available choices of moves are such that there are too many possibilities to plan for. You can think about the scenarios and what you might do, but at some point you're not planning. And I agree the draft is mind-boggling that way. The bad thing about the draft is that, unlike free agency, you have no idea how these guys are going fit in the NFL. It isn't easy to predict. In free agency, you've at least seen a guy up against Dion Dawkins, as an example, and that gives you some kind of gauge as what he might do. (For example, when Colin Cowherd asked Dion Dawkins who was the best pass rusher he'd ever faced, before Cowherd finished the question, Dawkins said, "Von Miller." That information is much more valuable than any information they can get about any edge coming out of college.) When the Bills traded for Diggs, they said to themselves, "We got our receiver." When they drafted Kincaid, all they could say was, "We hope we got a receiver." The whole process is one in which you have to make choices with insufficient information, and the information that you did have that was relevant to yesterday's choice has changed when you have to make today's choice, because other teams and players have made moves, too. And, yes, I'm sure there are times when Beane doesn't want to hear any more from McDermott, because it just adds to the uncertainty of the whole process. That's why it's so important to have a GM and coach who are real teammates in the process, guys with continuity together, so that the GM can develop a feel, an intuition for the kind of guy the HC needs. Obviously, Beane has lots of help developing all the information they have about the players who are available, either in free agency or the draft. Eventually, however, he has to make the calls. It takes a certain kind of personality to work well in that environment.

OK so we're not getting a 3rd because we lost a 1st rounder in Edmunds, it's completely because of the contract he signed with Bears?

I am pumped about the 3rd round pick for Edmunds. The best value we got since we drafted him was the 3rd round comp pick for letting him go. I knew there had to be something good about over drafting Tremaine Edmunds in 2018. Thank god Beane and the Bills moved on. Terrell Bernard is such a better fit for our defense.