Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

Does anyone know what the rules are if he did officially file papers to retire and then change his mind?? And were papers actually filed? Would seem an easy way out for any player not happy with his contract to retire, team moves on uses his money elsewhere then player comes back says, "I changed my mind" but now team doesn't have the cap space so have no choice but to cut him. Can Bills tell RI sorry you're on our retired list. Seems very similar to last year with Bolden (sp??)

Haven't seen this posted, but what exactly are the rules around someone firing retirement papers in the NFL, then changing their mind? Could see where players could do this all the time for the same reason people are thinking RI is doing it. Retire, team moves on, fills the spot money wise, than player comes back, but team doesn't have money available to keep him, so would be forced to release him. Is there something that once a player files papers to retire, it's tough for him to change his mind.

Trouble is the odds are about the same at getting a bust or a franchise QB

Statistically says one to two will be busts and one to two will become very good. But which ones are which? I went with Jackson, but no one knows for certain

I'd really be fine with any choice except the 1st one

"Him" is Butler himself, too often overpaid. Admittedly he became GM at the beginning of the FA period, so likely alot of feeling out the process and probably very few knew the long term affect of things like getting in cap trouble. At that point was still early enough in the era you could keep pushing overspending down the road and by the time it caught up, he was gone to the west coast. But yes do agree he did good job with the draft

This makes little sense. Likely whomever is drafted will sit much of this year until either McCarron were t oget hurt or totally stink up the joint. Even then I think they'd be hesitant to play a rookie who might have this great escape-ability, but mentally could get damaged from playing too soon if not prepared. The O-line may be in rough shape, but could easily be fixed in a year, so why take a long term QB solution for something that can be fixed in a year.

Well the risk you run if you don't move up at all is someone else then trades up to 8 or 9 to get the QB. All of a sudden it becomes easier for a team like say with two 1st round picks to get up to #8, but would take too much for them to go all he way to #4. Others even with one 1st round could offer multiple 2nd or 3rd's to get up that high.

I would seriously trading Shady and/or Hughes as they are likely two players that could bring something in return and assuming they draft a true franchise QB who lives up to his billing, those two probably won't be here by the time he reaches that point anyway.

The problem I had with Butler was he was very good at finding talent, either via draft or FA, but he was too much of a players GM and when it came time to re-sign to new contracts he'd often overpay and left a mess behind him regarding salary cap when he left here. According to him everyone was a great player.

Did you read the article the other day in the BN? He listed every year out so would be easy to look at the last 7 years to see if that changes the numbers. Admittedly 10% of the QB's were still in the category of "Too soon to tell" so looking at the past 7 years only would be a more limited set. Found the article, it was by Nick Veronica His criteria was he looked back at the past 30 drafts, but only drafts with more than 4 QB's in round 1 or 5 in the first two rounds. His point of the article was to show that just because there are many QB's that are going to be take nearly doesn't mean success. So to your point of looking back only 7 years within that window the only years that qualified were 2014, 2012, 2011, 2007 To get a little more data I also threw in 2004 which without 2004, the data would have been even worse as there were 3 franchise guys that year. Admittedly Wentz class isn't included as not enough QB's taken that year to meet his criteria Based on his rating ( and I felt were pretty accurate) there were 25 total QB's taken in that window that he rated as follows: 6 Too soon to tell 4 Franchise 1 Average 3 Journeyman 11 Busts I just looked at all 1st round QB's back to 2007 in 1st round, there were 13 more taken in the years not included for his article so that would change the numbers some. I also took the six he ranked too soon to tell and rated them in which I gave 4 of those 6 franchise/average grades to. I combined the franchise and average together as felt if I'm rating the "guys too soon to tell" would I call for example Jameis Winston a franchise guy or just average. But felt by combining those groups into one, was comfortable placing him there. The numbers then came out as shown below: 38 Total 17 Franchise/Average 45% 5 Journeyman 13% 16 Busts 42% Basically have about the same shot at a bust as a franchise/average guy. Really worse when you add in journeyman as really wouldn't want to be using a top 10 pick that you even gave up extra picks for to end up getting a journeyman.

If that's really true, then this team is really in trouble. There was an article just the other days showing that in drafts with over 5 QB's taken in first round, 33% turned out to be franchise QB's, 38% were busts or close to it. so if you only have a 1 in 3 shot at finding the right guy, to be fired over making the wrong choice is crazy. I truly believe TP doesn't like constant change, so the front office will stick around as long as he sees overall improvement in the roster. If every position on the team is improved except stil ldon't have the QB right, will be given more chances to figure it out.

Kind of interesting that people who do this for a living and are not actual fans so are more objective don't see it that way Mark Gaughan analyzes the Bills' offensive line continuity, which ranked near the top of the league last season but could be disrupted by the retirement of Eric Wood. I don't disagree with your overall thought, that yes the Bills weren't able to fill their other areas of need thru FA due to lack of money so giving up alot of picks now would still leave them overall weak. If the Bills can trade up and still keep 4 of their top 7 picks (I'm including next years 1st round pick) I'd be OK with moving up as could still fill enough other holes, but doubt you can do that and move up to #2. That may get you to #5 or lower. There was an article the other day on BN that showed of all the past 30 or so draft classes with multiple top QB picks, only around 33% panned out to be franchise level QB's and 38% were either busts or not much better than that, so again hate to give up all that draft capital for a 1 in 3 shot of success. I do recall one time a quote from Marv Levy "Free agents typically hurt the team they are leaving more than they help the team they are going too"

Two things have to happen for Mayfield to drop down to the Bills, 1st I do think though the Bills would have to jump ahead of Miami as doubt they'd pass on him If they could jump up to 9 or 10 with 49er's or Oakland, t2nd thing the Giants pass on a QB, if that happens likely one of the top four will drop and could see Buffalo getting one of the top 4 down around #9 or 10 pick or so.

How can someone write a post that anyone would take seriously when he's not even smart enough to understand the difference between fact an opinion?

If the Giants plan to take a QB, really doubt they'd want to select after their rival Jets and be accused for years to come of getting the Jets leftovers. On the other hand they'd love to be in the position of taking the guy the Jets were rumored to want.

Think if you're going to go up to #2, can happen early and maybe the early the better so no other team can beat you to it. If lower than #2 then wait till on the clock to make sure guy you want is still there.

Those aren't excuses, they are facts 100 less completions than in 2014. He led the NCAA in catches so seems he can catch. Lets see what he can do if we have a QB who actually throws to WR

Yes 1 catch per game is alot, however the Bills also had 100 more completions as a team in 2014 so when you have a QB who doesn't want to throw to WR to begin with (TT 263 completions around half to RB and TE) and 100 less completions total, amazed that he even had 27 catches.

Woods had 40 catches his rookie year, that's not that much more productive than 27, particularly when factoring you have a QB that only threw half his passes to WR I do think WR is one of the toughest positions for rookies to look good at as regardless of your talents, you have to be in sync with the QB. Did he drop a number of pass's sure, especially early in the year. But lets give him a couple more years.

I wouldn't call 50 to 60% success rate that great. If the Bills owned a top 5 pick and used it on a QB and failed wouldn'r be so bad, but likely they'll end up trading other picks that could be used to solidify other positions too. So if you emd up[ failing and give away other picks, that 50% success rate looks much worse.

How can the # 53 pick be worth 340 points and a 2019 2nd round pick be worth 700 points? I've read too over the years that to you need to de-value draft picks for one year out by one round. Trading now for say the Bills 2019 1st round pick since they have the #12 pick overall would only be worth the points given to the 12th pick in the 2nd round. The problem too I see with your whole concept is when buying good as compare too, there are plenty of auctions to go to. So you don't overpay at the one this week, maybe next weeks auction is on a rainy day so not many people show up and you get a better deal. Different auctions, different attendees, and other variables. Here same group of people and same bidders all the time. So you're more at the mercy of the people selling or you'll continue to go home empty handed. That may be the better option than over paying, but not if you really need a specific item.

LOL Guarantee he will report by week 10 or is it 11 to get credit for the year. If I were an owner in the next CBA that would be one of the things I'd push back on, Change it to week 5 report or you're out for the year. Or even week 1, the NFL season is a full time thing these days, so you need to be here from day 1 or the year doesn't count. I'd offer them is, OK we'll no longer have Roger be judge and jury, but you need ot report week 1 to get credit for the season.

So who is that guy?? This year we have about 5 guys back in August who were all the next Jared Goff or better. Now there a 5 guys all with question marks for different reasons. Any of them could be him, but willing to bet at least two will be compared to Ryan Leaf in less than 5 years.

Or trade back for another #1 pick next year. And try and make the trade with a team likely to not do to well so it's a decent pick.