BigAl2526

I don't know what was available when you did your simulation, so I don't know if I would have made the Dawand Jones pick. As you say, I wonder about the scheme fit. Otherwise, you did a nice job picking players with desirable traits. It was a nice effort.

If Buffalo drafts an offensive lineman in April at this point it should be someone who is position versatile, someone who can play on the inside or outside. That rules out O'Cyrus Torrence, who is a guard only.

Thanks. I happen to be an oddball. I never smoked but ended up with both lung cancer and emphysema. My cancer is gone and my emphysema appears to be progressing only slowly, so I should have years before it becomes severely debilitating. My dad, a 50 year smoker, escaped lung cancer but developed emphysema that left him with 5% lung capacity by the time he died at 78. Not easy to think about what he went through the last few years of his life.

Moreover, if it was caught during a routine physical, it most likely was not symptomatic, which means it was caught early. Even advance Hodgkins lymphoma is considered to be relatively curable. Hodgkins that is caught early, that much more so. I had lung cancer that was caught accidently before it was symptomatic, though in retrospect, I think I did have one barely noticeable symptom. It was stage 2 when I had a lobectomy followed by chemo. That was 6 years ago. I am now cancer free. I'm not going to be playing football though. BTW, I believe Foster Moreau was the other unusually athletic sleeper TE prospect the year Buffalo drafted Dawson Knox.

Agreed. He's an indefensible reach at #27. I know Nolan Smith did not play middle linebacker in college, but he has most of the physical traits Buffalo might look for. He's shorter than Edmunds, but his athleticism is off the charts. If the Bills do their due diligence and decide that he's capable of making the switch and willing to try, and he happens to be available, I might take a chance on him.

Well, I'd take Quessenberry over Bobby Hart. I'm OK with this if they aren't locked into guaranteed money. Sign him, then look for someone who is better. Let him compete and if he can't win a competition, cut him and you've lost nothing. If you can't get anyone better because of the cap, at least you have a bit of insurance.

I don't like the taste of Buffalo sauce. Never have. I like my wings in BBQ sauce.

If the price is right, I'm OK with it.

Teams draft on the basis of "the best player for our team." That's really what I mean when I say "BPA." That takes into account position of need. I also assume that no two teams, nor any two individuals for that matter, have identical big boards. That said, I don't think that Beane will zero in on one or two positions and only consider players from those positions. I also don't think he is inclined to reach very far to pick a player of need. Considering specific players, I have a hard time with the notion of Buffalo picking O'Cyrus Torrence. Buffalo has a preference for players with position versatility and it is generally believed that Torrence is a guard only, and his size dictates more or less that he's got to be in a power blocking system. Buffalo uses a fair amount of power blocking, but they also seem to like using zone blocking at least some of the time. I saw Josh Downs mocked to the Bills today. I thought that was just plain stupid. Downs is small, limited to the slot in the opinion of most and ran a 4.48 in the 40 at the combine. That's really about average for a WR, but you want a smaller WR to be faster, like Deonte Harty, whom the Bills just signed. Tight end is not strictly a need, but Buffalo lacks a true #2 TE. Depending on who else is available at other positions, I'd think long and hard if Darnell Washington was still on the board at #27. Nolan Smith is another player I'd consider though his college position is not a need for Buffalo. He's normally listed as an edge rusher, but as small as he is, I think he could get beat up playing defensive end full time in the NFL. Some might think him an outside linebacker. He would probably be a really good one, but Buffalo doesn't need that with Milano on the team and playing a nickel alignment most of the time. The Bills would need to decide if he had the mental makeup to switch indie to middle linebacker where they have an obvious need. Another player I'd consider is Anton Harrison. He played left tackle in college, but he's not so tall that he would be awkward at guard like Spencer Brown would be. He's got work to do on his run blocking, but I think Peter Skoronski is probably the only offensive lineman in the draft who is close to a finished product. I don't think there is a single safety I'd like at #27 and a first round safety doesn't make a lot of sense with Poyer back in the fold. There would need to be great value in the pick, and there isn't. There is a very slim chance that a quality defensive end or tackle drops to Buffalo. I would consider either position if it was a really compelling value, but Buffalo would have to try and unload somebody on the roster and it might be tough to get good value in a trade at that point. I'd also give Bijan Robinson consideration if he drops, but I'm not expecting that to happen. There are not many WRs I'd take, especially after Buffalo signed a couple decent free agents. Jordan Addison is not going to drop, nor is Quentin Johnson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I I already said I wouldn't take Josh Downs, an undersized and not that fast slot receiver. The only other two that I've seen projected as possible first round picks are Zay Flowers (who is a little on the small side but may be able to handle reps on the outside) and Jalen Hyatt who might have the best speed of any receiver projected as a possible first round pick and at least average size. I might be talked into Hyatt, but the pickings would need to be pretty slim otherwise.

I'll be surprised if anybody signs him. I do think there are more than 32 QBs who are better. He's too much of a prima dona to sign for a back up role.

Something I did not see noted in any analysis: While there is not a great record of finding starting defensive linemen or running backs in round one, there is a huge drop off to the second round where the success rate drops by 30% from round 1. Compare that to offensive linemen where the success rate drops 17% from first round to second round. In other words, while luck is needed to find a starter in round 1, the odds are somewhat with you, and anything after that is a shot in the dark. The exception to that is the fact that for some reason there is a jump in the success of finding defensive linemen in the fourth round. The 37% success rate for finding starting defensive linemen in the fourth round of the draft is the highest rate of success after the first round's 58% success rate. Curious.

It is a delicate situation to be sure. There should be something there even if the Bills can't trade back, but it may not be a true first round value and it may not be at a position that most think is a need. Most think Anton Harrison will be available when Buffalo picks, for example. He's not a finished product and needs to get better at run blocking, but he is very athletic and has good size to enable him to move inside or stay outside and play tackle. There's also Darnell Washington. He's a freak at tight end and an outstanding blocker though he was underused as a receiver. Tight end wouldn't be a position I'd be looking to fill in round one, but the way the round falls might make it the most logical pick.

It would be at least a mild surprise if any of the top 3 are still on the board when the Bills pick.

In the case of the Bills, it was inevitable. The Bills were never going to have enough cap room to make a splash signing and still fill the holes they needed to fill. I don't mind.

His lack of athleticism gives him a low ceiling. If the Bills want more than a special teamer, they need to fill his spot with someone who has a higher ceiling and more athleticism. I expect the Bills to draft a safety, but probably not in the first round.

Exactly the kind of signing that could be expected this off season with a tight cap situation. He's got enough speed, though he's certainly not Tyreek Hill fast. He has good hands, gets separation, can play in the slot or outside, is an outstanding blocker for a WR and can play special teams. Not, he doesn't have a name in the league and no, his total production is very limited, but if he had a big name and lots of production on his resume, the Bills would not be able to afford him.

I haven't given up on Spencer Brown mostly because injury issues have delayed his development. I'm not against taking an offensive tackle in the first round. There may be one or two who would be a fit for the Bills. There are some offensive tackles in the draft who are short enough to slide inside too.

BPA all the way. I would be a bit surprised if the BPA is an interior offensive lineman, defensive back or running back at this point. The draft could always fall differently from what I expect though. It usually does.

The Bills' draft strategy is going to be heavily influenced by value. We don't have access to their big board, of course, but the odds are that by the time Buffalo picks at #27 the cupboard is going to be bare or nearly bare of first round value. Some observers think first round talent in this draft numbers in the teens. Brandon Beane may trade down if he can. Otherwise, he's going to take a deep breath and pick what he feels is the best player remaining. It could well be a tight end. It could be a WR or maybe a defensive lineman. I very much doubt it will be pure guard, as I don't think there will be any kind of value there. There might possibly be an offensive tackle. It might be a linebacker, but I doubt it would be a defensive back.

Agility would be one of my concerns too. I would not say that he couldn't become an effective Mike linebacker, but I'd like to see him lose some weight and see if that lets him become more agile. He is also going to need some development and coaching to make the transition to an NFL middle linebacker. If the Bills were to start him in 2023, the defense would suffer.

Yeah. He's done nothing to demonstrate starter potential. He's a better backup than Jaquan Johnson though. If the Bills pick up another safety and Hamlin is able to come back next season, Johnson is the guy I'd cut.

I agree with those who think McKenzie's time with the team is probably coming to an end. He had a great opportunity to make a statement in the 2022 season, and what he said in his statement was, "I'm not good enough."

Buffalo had competition for Harty. Another team offered more guaranteed money than Buffalo, but he chose Buffalo because he thought his skill set was a better fit. He's a pro bowl kick returner and while hedidn't have a lot of opportunity catching passes, he did well with the opportunities he had. There is always a risk when you sign a relatively untested younger player to a contract of more than one year, but when a player has talent, there is going to be competition from other teams. GMs are paid to gamble at least some of the time.

Matteson ran a much better 40 at his pro day than he did at the combine. 4.67 at the combine and 4.52 at his pro day. The pro day time is very good for a back of his size.

This sounds like a solid signing by the Bills. He's got starting experience, prototypical size and a long career ahead off him. The price seems reasonable. This probably takes offensive guard out of consideration as a first round draft pick. I could still see Buffalo picking up a center/guard prospect in the draft though.