Logic

Yeah. 10-7 is definitely "we need other teams to do certain things in order for us to make the playoffs" territory. 11-6 should get us in for sure. Win the three remaining "should win" games and one of TB or NE and we should be a lock. No small task, given what we've seen the past few weeks. Win the three remaining "should win games" and LOSE to both TB and NE, and we're scoreboard watching the rest of the season.

I agree that there's no need to panic if we don't beat Tampa Bay. My main point is that it's still a big game, because winning it would increase the Bills playoff chances dramatically. Using the NY Times playoff machine you mention, a win in TB raises the Bills playoff odds from 77% to 90%. That's a big increase. While 77% is still "statistically more likely than not", it's not a lead pipe lock. 90% is much closer to that. By winning in TB, the Bills avoid putting themselves in a position where they HAVE to go 4-0 or 3-1 in the remaining games to make the playoffs. It takes them from "backs up against the wall and little to no margin for error" to "a little bit of breathing room". Panic if they lose? No. Unimportant game? Also no.

Respectfully, my post had nothing to do with the "wild card vs division champs" discussion. I also listed exactly where I got my results: Fivethirtyeight.com. When you're 7-5 and currently holding the 7th and final spot in the playoffs, every game is a big game. The point is that, while the Bucs game isn't a "must win", winning it would hugely increase the odds of the Bills making the playoffs.

Somewhat true, but not entirely. While a LOSS to TB only drops the Bills playoff odds from 72% to 62%, a WIN against TB raises the Bills playoff odds from 72% to 92%, per Fivethirtyeight.com It's a big game.

Agreed. Even after everything else they've gone through this year, if the Bills had won on Monday night (and make no mistake, they SHOULD HAVE), they'd be 8-4, leading the division, and with a pretty realistic shot at the top seed in the AFC. Instead, they lost a very winnable game, in a very classic, Bills-like "stealing defeat from the jaws of victory" fashion, and in so doing, showed their lack of adaptability and creativity on offense -- a critical problem considering that we face the Bucs and Pats (two good defenses) in two of our next three games. With just that Monday night loss, Bills fans went from "we could still get the top seed!" to "are we even going to make the playoffs?". Many went from "we overcame adversity, we can still do this!" to "I'm questioning everything about this team right now". It was a huge, monumental, crushing loss. People can brush it off and say "it was just one loss, no big deal", and I understand that as a coping mechanism, but...holy hell, that was a bad and demoralizing loss.

Tom Brady is winning MVP in a runaway at this point. He'd be my current choice for MVP for both his statistical production AND for what the MVP award SHOULD mean (player most valuable to his team). Take Brady away, and that Tampa Bay roster, even as wildly talented and filled with great players as it is, wouldn't make the playoffs. Blaine Gabbert? Kyle Trask? Right. Mind you, this pains me to say, because I'd rather punch myself in the face than say anything nice about that *****.

Oh fer Chrissakes. I'm on the west coast, and thus will get the 49ers-Bengals game instead of Bills-Tampa. I get them putting it on in the area surrounding San Francisco, but do they really think the whole west coast cares about the 49ers? Blech.

This is a key point. Convert the 4th down in Tennessee and score on one of the 4th quarter red zone trips against the Pats and the Bills are likely 9-3 today, with the top seed in the AFC. Now, I get it: If my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle. Wins are wins and losses are losses. Still, this team is a few poorly executed plays away from being set up for a first round bye in the playoffs and home field throughout. Alas....

I'd rather NOT lose Frazier. Daboll, on the other hand? I would not feel sad if he found greener pastures. I think it's time for some fresh ideas on this Bills offense.

I'm usually a relentless optimist, but this matchup -- on paper -- is not great. In terms of the war in the trenches, where games are decided, I see Tampa Bay as having the edge on both the offensive and defensive lines. Linebackers? Edge goes to Tampa. Secondary? Given the lack of Tre White (which I think Brady will absolutely exploit), I'd have to say Tampa again. Their offense vs our defense? I'm not so confident that a Wallace/Jackson cornerback pairing will be particularly effective limiting a passing attack featuring Evans, Godwin, and Gronk. Leonard Fournette vs this rush defense? I have an irrational feeling that despite everything I just laid out, the Bills will play well this Sunday. It won't surprise me if they win. It also won't surprise me if they lose 38-16. Based on the specific matchups and with the way the team has played lately (and I didn't even MENTION Brady's decades-long ownership of the Bills), it's easy to me to see why Bills fans would be pessimistic.

In my opinion, the healthy guys -- Sean Murphy-Bunting, Carlton Davis, Richard Sherman, and Antoine Winfield Jr -- are enough to make the secondary rather imposing. Combine it with their absolutely filthy front seven and it COULD be a long day for the Bills offense. That said, I have a weird feeling the Bills offense plays well this Sunday. I have no rational explanation for feeling that way. Just a hunch.

As far as I know, Carlton Davis will be good to go, Richard Sherman has been activated from IR and will likely play, and Jamel Dean is questionable. Should know more when today's practice report comes out.

Been considering the same. I grew up in Rochester but haven't lived there since I left at age 18. The rent and home prices seemingly ANYWHERE in the country other than WNY are insane. I live in Portland, OR currently, and there's not a chance in hell that I can reasonably afford a house here. For what I'd spend on a small, 1 bedroom, ranch style house in the city here, I could get a five bedroom palace with acres of land and a creek in WNY. Truly. It's mind boggling how affordable housing is in WNY when compared to most of the rest of the country. I'm not sure I want to do Rochester again, though. I'm almost more tempted to give Buffalo a shot, though I've never lived there before. I suppose the two cities are comparable in a lot of ways, but at least Buffalo might be a bit more exciting since I've never lived there before. I'm not familiar with what areas surrounding Buffalo would be desirable to live in, though. What suburbs, what neighborhoods, etc. Anyway...good luck in your search. Hopefully the knowledgeable folks here can give you some valuable insight.

I hope Daboll says "***** it, if we're going down, we're going down swinging" and empties the bag of tricks. I want motions, jet sweeps, designed QB runs, trick plays, screens, you name it. We're NOT going to be able to run the ball against this team, so sling that sumbitch around the yard and play like it's the last game of your life. If we're gonna lose, can we at least make it fun? Can we at least make it look good? Like, I didn't mind the Tennessee loss so much. It was entertaining as hell and we went down like fighters. The Colts and Pats losses, well...not so much. MAKE BILLS FOOTBALL FUN AGAIN

Unless Cunningham can call plays on offense or catch the ball as a tight end, I'm not sure he'll fix what's ailing the Bills right now...

I haven't read through 45 pages here, so I'm sure this has been said already, but... The thing I can't get out of my head about Monday night is our refusal to use Josh Allen's legs as a weapon. Even if we just did it in the red zone, that would be something. We were moving the ball just fine between the 20s, but we would completely stall out in the red zone ,as we have all season long. To have 1st and goal at the six yard line, with an offense this talented and a quarterback with Allen's skills...and to NOT get into the end zone...is criminal. When the Bills are in the red zone, I'd love to see them bring an extra o-lineman on the field, some kind of jumbo package, and have Allen run the ball. I'm talking Tim Tebow Florida Gators type stuff. You can't tell me that if we had run Allen four straight times from the six, he wouldn't have punched the ball in. Put differently, ask yourself this: If Belichick had a quarterback with Allen's skillset on his roster on Monday night, what would HE have done in the red zone? Right. Exactly. Lastly, I'll just say that the "Bills can't stop the run!" narrative I see being pushed in the media as the reason for the lost is hogwash. The Pats piled up rushing yards, yes, but it took them 46 carries. Take away the one long run by Harris and the Bills held the Pats to 3.5 yards per carry, 2 for 12 on 3rd downs, and 14 points. This loss is on the offense, point blank period.

Monday night sucked. The past 8 or so weeks of up-and-down play have sucked. The team has issues, which we can all clearly see. Even with all of that having been said....the overreaction, exaggeration, and hyperbole on these forums is predictably comical right now.

Bills will lose to the Bucs, drop to 7-6, and kill off any remaining hope that fans or analysts have of them recovering. They'll then proceed to win all four remaining games after that and make the playoffs at 11-6. I know, I'm a crazy homer, we don't have a shot in hell, blah blah blah. 11-6 and playoffs. It's gonna happen!

I hear ya, and I'm generally in the "history doesn't matter, each game and season and situation is unique, who the heck knows?" camp, BUT... I DO think something like looking at a particular coach's success against opposing rookie quarterbacks is instructional. McDermott and Frazier have demonstrated with significant consistency that they're good against opposing rookie QBs, and in football, if your quarterback doesn't play well, your chance at victory diminish considerably.

The two interesting stats I've seen come up today that have me encouraged (I know they've already been posted here, but I'm just mentioning that both are interesting and give me hope): - Belichick's Pats are 0-6 post-Brady when going up against divisional opponents who are 3 games over .500 or more. - McDermott's Bills are 7-2 against rookie QBs, and have never allowed one to throw for more than one touchdown against them Here's hoping both stats/trends continue tonight.

I'm glad. All teams were obviously hamstrung to some degree by the COVID year's impact on the cap, but....I feel the Bills, with where they were in their build and their "championship window", were particularly negatively affected. Beane is a careful and meticulous planner, and I think this past offseason SHOULD have been the "cherry on top" free agency period, where they were able to bring in a few high end pieces to put them over the top. Instead, due to the unexpectedly lower cap, all they could afford to do was bring back their own and maintain the status quo. We are potentially seeing the results of that inability to bring in a few more pieces play out right now, where we are 7-4 but could, with a few more reinforcements, have been 9-2. Alas, what's done is done. I'm glad things are normalizing, cap-wise.