Logic

I feel that the envisioned "best case scenario" plan was for Brown to take over for Williams as the starting RT by 2023 (allowing the Bills to save money at that position by moving on from Daryl Williams) and for Doyle to take over as the swing tackle. In any case, Brown's development (and Williams' regression at RT) happened faster than anyone likely imagined. The only remaining question now is whether Tommy Doyle can turn into a serviceable depth player.

Jackson Mahomes out there spraying COVID at them from a squirt gun?

I mean...that seems a bit much. If by "trouble" you mean that they're not looking likely to get the number one seed at the moment, then sure. But "in trouble" seems an exaggeration for a team that has the number one scoring defense, a top five scoring offense, and currently leads their division.

Additionally, with teams employing the "Cover 2 shell" strategy against Buffalo and forcing lots of underneath passes, Breida might be more of a weapon as a receiver. Allen threw quite a few passes to Singletary on Sunday. No one seriously thinks Singletary is any kind of run-after-catch threat. Breida at least MIGHT be, given his speed. I agree with you: The status quo is not working. They've got to try SOMETHING new.

Personally, I think it's really, really weird that the Bills are still the Super Bowl favorites. REALLY weird. There are multiple teams with better records. There are even multiple teams with quarterbacks playing at a higher level (at least statistically) than Buffalo's. I can see being in the top 5 in Super Bowl odds, but FIRST?! Doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

I definitely feel like it's time to give Matt Breida some snaps. Moss and Singletary have shown that they can be effective backs. The problem is that neither is good enough to transcend a woeful offensive line. Elite running backs can sometimes do that. Moss and Singletary, obviously are not elite. Matt Breida obviously isn't elite, either, but perhaps his world class speed can make up for some of the offensive line struggles. Whereas Moss and Singletary's "good runs" these days seem to mean a 4 yard gain, perhaps Breida's speed would enable him to turn that 4 yards into 14 yards. Moss and Singletary simply don't have the speed to easily get past the second level of the defense. One thing's for sure: it would be hard for Breida to be any worse than what we've seen the past few weeks.

Almost everything about this Bills team has come together this season the way it was supposed to. The defense is first in points allowed half way through the season. The special teams are pretty good and the kicker seems to be elite. The quarterback is (usually) playing at a high level and the receiving corps is talented and deep. The third year athletic marvel tight end is breaking out (injury notwithstanding). The one thing that has NOT come together the way it is supposed to this season? The offensive line. Beane seemed to bank on the idea that a return to full health for Feliciano and Ford and settling on a consistent, healthy starting five would mean that the offensive line would improve from the level at which it played last year. Unfortunately, Dawkins seems to be less than 100%, Williams regressed at right tackle, and the offensive guard situation has been an abomination. Simply put: Beane miscalculated the offensive line situation, and it is costing the Bills football games. The Pittsburgh loss? Offensive line woes. The Tennessee loss? The defense owns some of the blame, too, but the failure to convert the sneak certainly was due largely to Dawkins being blown up. The Jaguars loss? Clearly the offensive line. They've directly contributed to, if not caused, all three losses. There are lots of specifics that can be pointed to. Teller being traded away, Spain being released, Ford turning out to be a bust, Boettger and Bates not having developed enough to be counted on as quality starters. Whatever you blame, the fact remains: the offensive line stinks (as Gunner said, it's average on good weeks and abysmal on bad weeks), and it might be a fatal flaw. It can only be schemed around so much. At the end of the day, if opposing defenses (even lowly defenses like the Jaguars) can routinely get home with just four rushers, it's going to be a long day for the offense. Hopefully, with Spencer Brown's return to the lineup and Williams moving back to right guard, we can get "passable" o-line play more often than "abysmal". If not, I don't see a Lombardi trophy in the immediate future.

It's not just an easy schedule that they're squandering, either. It's also a down year for Kansas City (who one would assume will be contender for the one seed more often than not over the next decade), and seemingly a year too early for the young up-and-comers (LAC, Bengals, etc). The Bills have the number one scoring offense and number one scoring defense, and have still somehow lost three out of eight games. To have this type of schedule, this type of talent, and this type of opportunity within the conference all align, and to be squandering it the way the Bills seem to be....is pretty tough to watch. I can't help but wonder if the failure to upgrade the interior offensive line is going to ultimately be the thing that costs the Bills their best shot at a championship in 30 years.

I stand corrected. He was nominated this year, but has not yet been inducted. I was actually quite surprised by this. I thought he was a Hall of Famer for sure. Thanks.

That's just it. You've captured my problem with the notion of "QB wins" with this exact question. I would agree with you that Allen WAS the reason they won that game. So let's say we assign him a nice, tidy, capitol "W" for that one. The very next week, I would argue that the Bills defense was the reason they won the game against the Ravens. Nevertheless, because Josh Allen was starting at quarterback for the Bills, he still gets that nice, big capitol "W" next to his name. (If you don't like the Ravens example, you can pick a different game where the defense was the prime reason for the win, or the great pass protection, or a superlative run by a running back, or punt returned for the deciding score, etc, etc.) The "W" that goes next to the quarterback's name in each instance is exactly the same. It ignores the context, the nuance, the vastly different variables that lead to the "W". It ignores the multiple takeaways that the defense collected, or the great field position that the return game provided, or the toe-tapping catch by a wide receiver on a crucial third down that lead to the winning score. THAT'S exactly the problem I have with the notion of quarterback wins. And, I suppose, I would again ask: Why is quarterback the only position in football to which we "assign" wins? Surely Tre'Davious White has played a big hand in lots of big Bills wins. Why don't we track cornerback wins? Bruce Smith swung plenty of games the Bills' way during his career, but we don't talk about Edge Rusher wins. We could go back and forth on this all day, but because of the highly nuanced nature of a team game like football -- where all 11 players have to do their job on each play, and where even a highlight reel quarterback play is aided by great pass protection by five different men and a great catch by yet another man -- I stand by my believe that assigning wins to any given player or position is fruitless. Now, @Shaw66's notion of 4th quarter comebacks or come-from-behind wins correlating more directly with a quarterback's effectiveness gets closer to the truth, but even that causes me some trepidation. Again, what kind of pass protection is the quarterback getting? Who is calling his plays? Are his receivers catching the passes being thrown their way? Was the winning touchdown catch a well-thrown ball, or should the credit really go to the receiver who had to lay out for a fingertip grab? It's a nuanced discussion.

You can make stats say whatever you want them to — which is what you’re doing here. You mention that Group B “won a lot”. But Group B is also vastly superior statistically and in terms of collective quarterback rating. The amount of variables that go into winning football games make “quarterback wins” a ridiculous thing to measure. Why not measure offensive guard wins? Punter wins? Ridiculous. You can compare players at a given position by comparing their statistical production and, in the case of quarterbacks, by QB rating and QBR. Comparing them by wins is silly, because it ignores scores of variables that are outside their control and affect the likelihood of wins and losses. QB wins are not a thing.

A.) Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams B.) Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Fran Tarkenton, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts, Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair Group A has won six Lombardi trophies and features zero Hall of Famers. Group B has won zero Lombardi trophies and features seven Hall of Famers. Quarterback wins are not a thing.

The Saints were trying to trade for Beckham, but they couldn't come to agreeable terms with the Browns based on the contract structure. I say he clears waivers and then signs with the Saints.

Note: "Quarterback wins" are not a thing. If you don't believe me, ask Dan Marino and Trent Dilfer.

I went over to the Jaguars forum just to see what their fans had to say about the game. I'd say the average score prediction came about to about Bills 45, Jaguars 10. And that's from Jaguars fans!

This x100. Whenever the "Whaley built a great team!" discussion comes up, I always have the same response: Whaley assembled a great collection of talent. I wouldn't say they ever resembled a great TEAM. It's why McDermott decided upon arrival to tear the team down to the studs and rebuild it almost from scratch. The culture and player mentalities in place when he arrived simply were not compatible with what McDermott viewed as being necessary to be a championship caliber football team. There are tons of great NFL rosters -- on paper. Tons of great collections of talent. But a bunch of talented players does not necessarily equal a great team. This is where Beane and McDermott deserve all the credit in the world: finding the right balance between acquiring good football players and assembling a group of hard working, selfless, team-first men who love the game of football and don't just view it as a job. Coach Jauron and his GMs, for instance, were able to acquire many of the latter, but few of the former. Conversely, Whaley acquired many of the former, but few of the latter. Urban Meyer (?!) said it best this week: This Bills team is one of the best builds in recent league history.

99% of the time I say I don't care how the team wins, so long as they win. Style points don't mean much. The only thing that matters is finishing with at least one point more than your opponent. HOWEVER... This is not one of those weeks. The Jaguars are SO bad -- so poorly coached, so devoid of game changing talent, so poorly ranked defensively and so inept offensively -- that I'd like to see the Bills absolutely destroy them. 42-9, something like that. I want to see the Bills passing game absolutely light it up. There is no good reason for them NOT to light it up. Josh Allen has never thrown five touchdowns in a single game before, and this seems like as good a week as any. Forget "it's a week-to-week league", "it's all about matchups", "any given Sunday", and all that jazz. I want to see absolute domination from the kickoff to the final whistle.

Fair. It seems lately that NFL teams are willing to gamble on a big leg, banking on the idea that they can -- to some degree -- teach hang time and accuracy, but they can't really teach leg strength. The Bills made this gamble themselves with Bojorquez, whose kicking power is great but whose accuracy and control are so-so.

Since you mention it... There's this fella Matt Araiza down at San Diego State: https://www.theringer.com/2021/10/29/22752437/matt-araiza-san-diego-state-punter-nfl-potential "Punters don’t try to make highlights. They try to be consistent, perfecting their motion so it’s the same every time. But Araiza has a rocket launcher for a leg, so for him consistency is making highlights. He’s hit 14 punts of at least 60 yards, two shy of the NCAA record for the most in a full season—and the Aztecs still have at least five games to go. He has 28 punts of 50-plus yards; the NCAA record is 32, set in 1994. He’s averaging 54.0 yards per punt, which would smash the NCAA and NFL records—51.0 in college and 51.4 in the NFL, the latter set by Slingin’ Sammy Baugh in 1940. Even if we factor in returns and touchbacks, Araiza is on pace for history: SDSU’s net punting average is 46.7 yards per punt; since the NCAA started including touchbacks in net punting average, no team has been better than 45.0. And remember, the Big Punt wasn’t even Araiza’s longest punt of the year. He also boomed an 86-yarder against San Jose State at sea level."

Tyler Bass is everything you could want in a kicker. One of the strongest legs in the league, accurate, "swaggy" (as his teammates say), and -- as time goes on and more and more evidence trickles in -- clutch. If you look around the league, kicking situations are awful almost everywhere. The teams who don't have a dependable long term kicker outweigh those that do. It's nice to have the Bills be one of the teams that have their kicking situation figured out, particularly since the Bills are now in a championship window. Oh, and by the way....the Bills drafted Tyler Bass AFTER the Patriots picked a kicker in the same round. The Patriots kicker is now out of the league. That feels nice. Lastly, let me just say: I am ALWAYS in favor of using 6th and 7th round picks on kickers and punters. The contributions you're going to get from a good kicker or punter (but especially kicker) over the course of their career likely FAR outweigh the contributions you're going to get from, say, a safety that only plays special teams.

Thanks for sharing this. I read an article on The Ringer the other day: https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/11/1/22757426/afc-leading-teams-titans-ravens-chiefs-bills It points out that, according to Sports Info Solutions, the Bills led the league last year in success rate on short dropback plays. This year, they’ve fallen to 16th. That’s quite the drop off! The short passing game, the “taking what is given”, the requisite composure to not try to do too much and to trust your playmakers…Allen seems to be having a harder time with these than he did last year. Im not really sure why. Perhaps how defenses are playing him? As others have already said, the key to winning a Lombardi lies in Allen re-discovering his 2020 form in these areas.

I'm not sure I agree with the need to bring in a "top end speed" WR, but if you're of that persuasion....DeSean Jackson was just released by the Rams.

So it's not just me! Someone set "p i e" to always auto-correct to penis. I claim innocence!!!

I swear, I've tried to edit that line several times now and it still shows as "penis in the sky". I can't seem to fix it. Ghosts, I tell ya. Ghosts!