Logic

This offseason, give me a couple of big, mean offensive guards and a legitimate running back. Draft one in the first if you need to, I don't care. I'm not suggesting we turn the clock back to the 70s and run it 40 times a game. I AM suggesting, however, that Allen will be much more successful if he has a running game to lean on when needed. Remember the game against the Jets when he was slinging it 20 yards down field at will all second half? Why was he able to do that? Because the Jets rotated a safety down into the box to stop the run game. Enough horizontal spacing offense. Give me an offense based on power running, play-action and downfield passing. Allen is EXCELLENT off play-action and throwing the ball downfield, and he'd be even better at both if defenses had to account for a legitimate run game. As Cosell says, the Bills offense as currently constructed requires Allen to be All-World, all of the time. It's not sustainable. Throwing the ball 40 times per game in a place like Buffalo is not sustainable once November and December roll around. Fix the line, add a legitimate runner in the backfield, and watch Allen and the Bills offense flourish.

Welp, there you have it. Sterling analysis.

They did for the first part of the season, yes. In the last four games, they've given up 40, 23, 27, and 27 points to the Eagles, Titans, Falcons, and Bucs. If the Eagles can score 40 and the lowly Falcons can score 27, it seems the Saints have fallen a bit from the lofty defensive perch upon which they sat earlier this year. Furthermore, their leading sacker and second leading sacker both failed to practice yesterday and may be out or limited for this game. I agree with the overall point that the Bills can't take anything for granted, and I'm not saying the Saints won't give them trouble...just that they're not quite what they were earlier this year.

In fairness… I really doubt that taking Taron off the field and inserting Dodsen would’ve really made much difference.

Yep. Just find a way. Star and Brown are out? Don't care. We're likely facing a team with Trevor Siemian at QB, no discernable threat at running back, and a defense that has been getting burned early and often the past few weeks. No excuses. Beat the Saints, get some key guys back for the Patriots game, and go win a primetime game at home, and we're back in business at 8-4 and with a division lead.

To be fair.... The Bills didn't ignore the offense in the way you're suggesting. After Josh's rookie season, Beane made it a significant priority to upgrade the offensive line. He spent big money on a good center and signed a bunch of guards as well. He also handed out decent contracts to Cole Beasley and John Brown and spent 3rd round picks on a running back and a tight end. The following offseason, Beane traded SIGNIFICANT capital for a star receiver, spent a 3rd round pick on another running back and a 4th round pick on a receiver. The offseason after that, Beane signed a WR2 in free agency and spent 3rd and 5th round picks on offensive tackles. It's totally reasonable to point out that Beane could and should have done more on the offensive line or at running back, or that you wish they'd spend more 1st round picks on offensive players...but to say that they've been ignoring the offense and that their plan is to just "let the all-world QB figure the rest out" is simply not accurate. They've put quite a lot of effort and free agency money and draft capital (via Diggs trade and other moves mentioned above) into the offense. And lest we forget, said offense has been a top five scoring unit for the majority of the season, recent struggles notwithstanding.

While McDermott says "everything is on the table", it's really hard for me to imagine Stevenson being activated after a short practice week for such an important game. I find it much more likely that he'd be activated for the Monday nighter against the Pats, since there'd be a 10 day runup to make sure he's acclimated and ready to roll.

The article mentioned in the OP is very illuminating and surprising, actually. I highly recommend reading it if you have access to The Athletic. They're running a $1 per month special right now. Anyway... The findings of Kapada sort of turn some of the popular narratives on their head. It's NOT necessarily that the Bills are bad against the much ballyhooed two-high look. Allen is actually one of the more successful QBs in the league against that look this seaosn. It's NOT necessarily that the offensive line is completely to blame (they're average to below average, but are performing at about the same level in terms of pass blocking as last year). It's NOT that teams have taken away the deep ball -- to the contrary, it's one of the few things saving the offense. What IS it, then? As the OP alluded to: Penalties, interceptions at really inopportune times, and terrible success rate converting 4th downs. The Bills, after all, are arguably two converted 4th downs away from being two games better in the standings. But the conclusion that is most concerning is that Allen is simply throwing the ball less accurately this year. He's still attempting the same types of throws and still attempting tight window throws. His completion percentage above expected has dropped from 2nd to 16th. That's huge! Whether you blame Allen pressing due to penalties and bad o-line play, defenses adjusting, you wearing the wrong t-shirt on gameday, whatever....the fact is that Allen seems to be generally throwing the ball less accurately this year and turning the ball over more, and it's hurting the team. Anyway, great read. Give it the time if you can.

While I agree that at 6-4, the season is not over, I think that this article does make some reasonable points. First, the Bills ARE built as a speedy, undersized, finesse team. They were built to beat the Chiefs of the world. The Bills are primarily built to pass and stop the pass. The problem is that this season, opposing teams have said "we're going to bottle up the passing game and force you to run" and "we're going to run it down your throat to punish your undersized nickel defense". So far, the Bills have had answers for neither challenge. Second, the Bills DO seem to be a "front running" team. If you're an inferior opponent, the Bills are likely to beat you by 30. If you're a legitimate contender, though -- and specifically, if you're a physical team that can run and tackle well -- the Bills are going to struggle to beat you. They seem to be built to get a big lead and then tee off on you when you have to pass to keep up. This works just fine when they're ABLE to build a lead. When they can't, though, things all too often unravel quickly. When the Bills score first in a football game, I tend to think there's a very good chance they'll win. If the OPPOSING team scores first, though, I tend to start worrying. That's not good. Third, the contention put forth by Dunne that Beane and McDermott seem to have somewhat overestimated the talent level of their roster seems to have some truth to it. Certainly the Bills are not as imposing and intimidating and as much of a juggernaut as they were last season, despite having a much EASIER schedule. So no, the sky is not necessarily falling and the season is not necessarily over. But yes, the article makes some good points and yes, it seems reasonable to start to question the build of this team a little bit.

The full version of this article appears to be behind a paywall. If anyone has access to it and is willing to share any more excerpts, it would be much appreciated. As it is, just the viewable beginning portion and article title hint at the overall gist of the piece. https://www.golongtd.com/p/the-buffalo-bills-are-a-soft-football The tired phrase was championed by fans and put into action by the front office. Run it back. Head coach Sean McDermott made no bones about it after his team’s season ended in the AFC Championship Game. He and GM Brandon Beane wanted to bring back everyone they could from their 15-4 team which, at first glance, sounds like a swell idea. They re-signed Matt Milano, Daryl Williams and Jon Feliciano. They made Josh Allen a very rich man, too. The only logical next step for the Bills, in 2021, was to reach the Super Bowl, win the Super Bowl and start naming streets in Orchard Park after all conquering heroes involved. Head coach Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane decided the best plan of attack was to field the same team and play the same way. Right now, the Bills are 6-4. They’ve beaten one good football team, the Kansas City Chiefs, that has actually morphed into a completely different team since then. Two of their last three games were calamities on par with some of the worst losses from the team’s 17-year playoff drought. The Bills were bullied by the lowly 2-8 Jacksonville Jaguars and, after a brief reprieve to Mike White Island, curb-stomped 41-15 by the Indianapolis Colts. There’s no under-selling it: This is a defining moment for McDermott, the true czar at One Bills Drive. McDermott has not offered detail on much of anything through his four years of press conferences but if there was ever a time to be as human as possible — to send a message — it was Sunday evening after watching his defense get steamrolled for five touchdowns by Jonathan Taylor. This was no anomaly. All four teams that’ve beaten the Bills did so with a hammer. Instead, everyone was mostly treated to the usual lullaby. “I believe we’re a physical football team. When I mention the point of attack on the defensive side, we’ve been better. Just in terms of our hand violence up front. So, 250, 286 yards, whatever it was rushing, it’s hard to win. And then when you turn the ball over, that’s a bad formula right there.” And… “It starts with a mentality and an attitude. It’s a one-on-one game. You’ve got to win your one-on-ones.” And… “At the end of the day, nobody wants to go through what we just went through. Give the Colts the credit. But again, I believe we’re a better football team but we have to play a better complete game than what we did in all three phrases.” And… “It’s a journey every season. It’s going to ebb and flow. That, to me, is part of the challenge and I love that challenge to be honest with you. Not that you want to lose. But it’s making those adjustments to make our team exactly what it needs to be, and learn who you are as a team. And we continue to grow and move forward. We’ll see where we are after Thursday night.” Not quite an address that’ll send players running through the nearest wall, no. I get it. This was McDermott’s appeal to begin with. My esteemed podcast co-host Jim Monos — who pushed for McDermott to get an interview and recommended the owners hire him — has noted several times on our show that McDermott’s sense of calm and direction was valued after two years of the batshit-crazy Rex Ryan Era. But a loss like this — a Mike Tyson vs. Steve Urkel two-second knockout — demands more fire from the head coach. This loss is completely on those at the top of the organization because it’s clear that these 2021 Bills operate as front-runners. If the getting’s good against bottom-feeders, they’ll win by 30. They’ll dance and flex all over your grave. But if you’re a team capable of throwing that uppercut? These Bills, in 2021, retreat to the corner. With the first shoulder lowered by Taylor, this game was a wrap.

I was always a big Hart Foundation guy. Not too sure about BOBBY Hart, though...

My feelings are that there is an entire thread dedicated to this very topic. It contains 11 pages of people discussing the very question you posed.

I'm not sure which would be tougher, trying to spell that last name or trying to pronounce it.

I never thought I'd miss Ty Nsekhe so much...

Deforest Buckner against Cody Ford is a potential gameplan-ruining matchup. Yuck.

Count me among the group that would rather see what Bates has to offer at RT than put Williams back out there. Also...this is a REALLY bad time for Brown to go on the COVID list, what with the quick Colts-Saints turnaround. Ugh.

I thought this article from Sports Illustrated was really interesting, and I wanted to share it with fellow football junkies. It talks about the "Aaron Rodgers foot pop", a sort of hop step that many quarterbacks -- including Josh Allen -- have begun to use, and to great effect. I find these sorts of mechanical nuances fascinating. First, here's Josh talking about it: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/12/bills-josh-allen-details-why-he-took-something-from-aaron-rodgers-throwing-mechanics.html “If you’ve seen my throwing motion, I’ve kind of incorporated a little foot hop on the left side. It’s something that Aaron does,” Allen said. “I don’t know what it is about it, but it allows me to just rotate with my hips more and be more of a rotational thrower as opposed to more of a vertical axis thrower. And that’s what caused the ball to sail and dive down (in the past), and it really shouldn’t have.” Next, the actual article: https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/11/16/cover-story-how-the-qb-evolution-sparked-a-coaching-revolution "There, quarterback junkies search for an edge in video clips, scanning the slow-motion drop-backs, releases and follow-throughs of the best players in the world, trying to identify the mechanical quirks that lead to the most staggeringly beautiful—and stunningly improbable—throws we see every Sunday. So it was that the Aaron Rodgers Foot Pop came to be known. Some warm-up footage showed the Packers’ quarterback shooting his lead (left) foot in the air for a split second, then touching it quietly back to Earth just after releasing the ball. At full speed it looks like a bit of an Irish step dance; well-timed photographs of Rodgers in action make it seem as if he is levitating as he passes. But the Foot Pop is actually a biomechanical adaptation by Rodgers to, as one quarterbacking expert says, generate a “buildup of rotational force let out in a quicker timeline for explosive power.” If that’s too much to digest, then simply know this: It was something the likes of which we had never seen, and it unlocked Rodgers’s arm talent in ways no one could conceive. .................... Those who believe that the recent retirements of Peyton and Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, plus the imminent departures of Ben Roethlisberger and (maybe, someday) Tom Brady, signal the end of a golden age are missing the almost numbing regularity with which we are seeing better—and far more mind-blowing—throws on NFL Sundays (not to mention college Saturdays and high school Fridays). With the interception rate plummeting, the chance of a turnover on a pass is about the same as a fumble on a run play. The average leaguewide passer rating is about 20% higher than it was in the early 2000s. And the Foot Pop, along with other idiosyncrasies, has gained acceptance. There are now rigorous rehearsals (and a better understanding) of off-platform throws, when a quarterback must move away from the designed launch point of a given play. Those kinds of unstructured moments were once stamped out of a passer by his position coach; now, they could be saving the quarterback species one lifted toe and sidearm sling at a time."

As to your first two paragraphs: you're still talking about the past. I'm talking about the present. Brady is literally the ONLY example of an immobile, throwback pocket passer playing at a consistently elite level in the NFL RIGHT NOW. Every other guy you can name in the top 10 of quarterback play year to year has mobility, athleticism, etc. Further, when I talk about mobility in QBs, it doesn't mean QBs that run for 500 yards a year. I'm talking about pocket mobility, escaping pressure, rolling out to the left and right, making off-platform throws, and also the athleticism and improvisatory ability to make off-structure plays. Also, the whole "Running QBs get injured more" trope has been disproven again and again. It simply isn't true. QBs are far more likely to be injured in the pocket than they are when on the move. With regard to the question of whether or not a given quarterback can elevate their team when things aren't going well: Simply look at the Browns' situation with Baker Mayfield right now. When the defense and running game are humming, they win games. When either of those things aren't functioning well, Mayfield has not proven over the past couple of seasons that he can routinely lift the team up, carry them on his back, and win football games. Put another way, he's not much more than a game manager who NEEDS a great supporting roster in order to succeed. BECAUSE he hasn't shown the ability to transcend that and to produce at a high level in the passing game, the Browns aren't sure whether or not they want to spend big money on him. I do not doubt that Jones can be a good care-taker of the football and can win games when paired with a defense and running game. I'm questioning whether or not he'll be able to elevate his team when those two things aren't going well.

Right, but the game has changed. Look at the best quarterbacks in the league right now other than Brady: Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Herbert, Prescott, Rodgers, Wilson, Watson, even up-and-coming guys like Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts...ALL of them are mobile and can play off-structure and improvise and have exemplary athleticism. Brady is arguably the ONLY successful quarterback in the league who is an immobile, throwback pocket passer. Obviously, his elite football mind and 20 years of experience allow him to continue to be All-World. I'm just saying that offensive football AS IT'S PLAYED NOW, in 2021, seems to favor mobility and the ability to play off-structure. I don't think that's even in question. If Mac Jones becomes one of the league's best quarterbacks over the course of his career, he'll be bucking a trend and will be the exception rather than the rule. I'm not saying he can't or won't do it. But the question posed in this thread was "are you concerned about Mac Jones?", and the answer for me is still "no" for the reasons I've laid out.

I wonder what game they'll be rolling out the all-reds for.

Right. I understand that and I agree. The point I'm trying to make is that I don't see any particular special traits that he has that are going to enable him to go toe-to-toe with the Josh Allens and Patrick Mahomes of the world when the time comes. These days, the best offenses are quarterbacked by guys that are mobile, can play off-structure, can improvise, can make a defender miss and find answers when plays break down. I'm not sure Jones will ever be that guy. I'm not saying he definitely won't, I'm just saying I don't see the evidence that he's more than a throwback pocket passer with an average arm. In the NFL, to be a very good quarterback for a very long time, you have to have some kind of special traits that elevate your game. I'm simply saying that at this point, I'm not sure what those are -- if they exist at all -- for Jones. He's winning right now by being smart and taking care of the football on a team coached by the GOAT and paired with an elite defense and great running game. But if and when the time comes to put the team on his back? I don't know, man... As I said, I could be totally wrong. Maye he's Drew Brees. Maybe he's Joe Montana. Maybe I'm an idiot. Who knows?

Ah yes, the 5-1 start... BILLS EXTEND DICK JAURON Posted by Michael David Smith on October 26, 2008, 1:22 PM EDT The Bills are one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season, sitting atop the AFC East with a 5-1 record. Now coach Dick Jauron has been rewarded. Adam Schefter of NFL Network is reporting that the Bills and Jauron have agreed on a three-year contract extension that will keep Jauron in Buffalo through 2011. The 2008 season was the final year of Jauron’s current deal, which means we could have had the unusual situation of a playoff coach becoming a free agent after the season. But now the Bills have made sure Jauron won’t be going anywhere any time soon. Share this:

Has anyone mentioned in this thread yet that Jauron once won NFL Head Coach of the Year?! That seems made up, but it's true!

Josh's passes travel so far, so fast, that his completions often seem like they've gone for less yardage than they really have. He'll throw a pass, and it's on the receiver so fast, and the camera moves so fast to keep up with it, that it looks like it went 10-15 yards. Then you watch the replay or the All-22, and you realize it actually was a 30 yard completion! I've never experienced this phenomenon with other QBs. To be fair, I didn't watch Elway or Favre as closely during their careers as I'm watching Allen, and we didn't have the All-22 and the variety of camera angles then that we have now. I've noticed this phenomenon with his running, too. He's such a big guy, and he takes such big strides, and has this upright running style (sort of like giant toddler meets gazelle), and before you know it, he's rumbled for 25 yards. Josh Allen, master of visual deception and shrinker of football fields.