Logic

I'm personally hoping Beane gets on the horn to his old buddy Gettleman (if he's still in NJ come March) and trades for Saquon Barkley. Dude is still just 24 years old. The Giants have him stuck in an ancient offensive scheme with no creativity. Get him in here, rebuild his confidence, and move him around the field like the deadly weapon he is. Let's see if defenses still want to go two-high all game when Barkley is the short outlet in the passing game.

I'm not sure how you can look at the Bills' 2019 record or their 2021 record and conclude that the DEFENSE was the primary problem. The 2019 Bills were the 23rd ranked offense in points per game. The 2021 Bills have THREE losses where the offense's red zone failings led to a loss -- the 4th down slip in the Titans game, the two empty red zone trips against New England, and the failure to convert 3rd and 2 in regulation against the Bucs (not to mention the three and out by the offense to start overtime). Give me just a touch better red zone production in those three losses and the Bills are 10-3. Frazier's not perfect, but his defense damned sure isn't the primary reason the Bills have six losses.

To be fair, all good defenses -- save for the historic defenses like the 2000 Ravens -- sometimes have games where they give up a lot of points. The number 1 scoring defense in the NFL right now is the Patriots, at 15.4 ppg allowed. They have had games this year where they allowed 24, 28, and 35 points. I also can't help but wonder how many of the points given up in the Bills' worst defensive outings this year could have been avoided if the offense hadn't been so toothless in those games. Not the Titans game, but certainly the Colts and the first half of the Buccaneers game saw multiple 3-and-outs by the Bills offense, which gave the ball right back to the opposing offense way too quickly.

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I don't really understand this line of thinking. The Bills are one of the better coached defenses in the NFL. They were the 2nd ranked scoring defense in 2019 and are the 2nd ranked scoring defense this year. 2020 was admittedly a bad year for the Bills defense. Other than that, what's the gripe?

Diggs is still on a petty good statistical pace. At his current average of 74 receiving yards per game, he's on pace to have 1,258 yards receiving and 9 or 10 touchdowns. His targets are down and the performance of the entire Bills offense is down a bit from last year. I also think teams are paying him a lot more defensive attention this year. Part of the problem, I think, is that Diggs was just so All-World last year, that this year looks like some kind of a letdown. In reality, 1200 yards and 10 TDs is a damned good season for a WR.

I get the sense that this game will be a lot closer than Bills fans would like to think. Between Josh's injury (even if he plays, he won't be at 100%), the Panthers having a good defense with a lockdown CB1, and the cold weather, I don't see the Bills blowing out the Panthers. They should absolutely win, don't get me wrong. If they can't beat this Panthers team, they don't deserve the playoffs anyway. It just might be more of a nail biter than some might expect.

I want to add a talented receiver, too, but I don't know if the first round is necessary. We may already have a dynamic WR2 on our roster.

Personally, I think the "Bills want a running back" rumor was legitimate. We'll never know for sure, of course, but I think Etienne would have been the pick if he was on the board.

This is a cool chart showing Allen's EPA throughout his career. The greener the square, the better the game. The redder the square, the worse the game. Wasn't sure where else to put this, so I'm including it here.

Beane -- contrary to what some of the negative nancies yelling the loudest right now might say -- is not an idiot. I'm not saying he's an infallible wizard, either, but he's certainly not an idiot. That said, it's hard for me to imagine him seeing the way this season has played out, particularly with Josh now in a walking boot because he had to play Superman too often, and NOT seriously address the offense, ESPECIALLY the offensive line. I don't think it's realistic to expect the defense to be completely ignored. We may need to add a cornerback and a 1T, at least. But for my money, the majority of draft picks and free agency dollars should certainly be spent on improving Josh's protection and weaponry, and I think and hope it will be.

Do you ALWAYS predict the worst possible outcome of events in life, or is it just for Bills games? Follow up question: Do you root for the team to do poorly in order to validate your constant pessimism?

This post is thoroughly on brand for you. On what basis would you suggest the Bills are going to get "blown off the field" against the Patriots, considering that didn't happen in any of the past three games against them? Nevermind, I'm not really interested in hearing your answer.

Calling half the message board losers because they're finding reasons to be encouraged about erasing a 21 point deficit on the shoulders of a courageous performance from their injured warrior quarterback is a pretty weird flex, but you do you.

Thanks, Alpha. Good post. I have to say: that was the most encouraging loss I can remember in a long time. Don't get me wrong -- it hurt like hell. Losing that game -- particularly against Brady, particularly against the reigning champs, particularly because the refs blatantly affected the outcome -- was gut wrenching. But as heartbroken for our guys (and angry at the refs) as I am this morning, I'm still very encouraged. Why? A few reasons. 1.) The Bills were getting punched in the mouth the same way they were against the Colts, only this time they finally seem to have reached a point where they said "enough is enough" and started punching back. That fight, that will, that resolve, is what I've been looking for from this Bills team. It's not ideal that it took them this long to find their fight, but they seem to have found it. That second half Bills team can play with anyone in this league and can win a championship. 2.) Josh checked the last remaining box other than "win a Super Bowl": He brought them team all the way back from a big deficit. There was ZERO margin for error, and rather than compound the problems or turn the ball over carelessly as we've seen him do in the past, he played basically perfect ball down the stretch, put the team on his back, and carried them to (near) victory. Yes, I realize he didn't finish the job. But, well...even though I'm not usually a "blame the refs" guy, I am ABSOLUTELY blaming the refs in this instance. I was already convinced Allen was a legitimate franchise QB. Now I'm convinced he's destined to be a Super Bowl MVP one day. I went into halftime of the game questioning everything about this Bills team. I came out of the 4th quarter thinking they can beat any team in the league. The problem, as we have seen, is that they can also LOSE to any team in the league. But boy oh boy, if they can continue to look like that second half Bills team...they can go all the way. Then again, they could lay an egg against the Falcons or Jets and that wouldn't surprise me, either. What a weird season in Bills football.

I think he is a vastly superior run blocker and a better deep threat. The former can turn a 6 yard run into a 26 yard run. The latter can add chunk plays on offense and change the way the defense is playing your offense. Davis should be full time WR2 going forward, if you ask me. I've seen enough. The results are in. He offers more than Sanders at this point. Sanders should be splitting time with Beasley, not Davis.

The Falcons are ranked 26th in points per game. They have two threats: Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson. Beyond that, their offensive roster is barren. If their offense is explosive, then I'm shtupping Scarlett Johannson.

Ahhh yes, the age old, smug-beyond-belief "service industry shouldn't be your career!" admonishment that completely ignores the reality of 2021 America. Never gets old.

My theory is that it's because most Americans, by and large, don't actually like coffee. This is confirmed by the ungodly amounts of sugar and cream that so many people have to add to their cup just to make it palatable to them, or the "instant coffee" swill that qualifies as legitimate coffee for so many people. Have you seen the drinks most people order at Starbucks? Sheesh. To give you an idea, their signature beverage that they're pushing right now is a toasted white chocolate mocha frappuccino 🤢. Or how about a Cozy Caramel Brulee latte? So if you want to find a way to get your morning caffeine fix in a sugary, calorie-filled, frozen blended diabetes bomb that pretends to be coffee but totally isn't, Starbucks is the place for you!

I haven't seen this mentioned in this thread, but maybe I just missed it. The Bucs' starting center, Ryan Jensen, has missed two straight practices and is trending toward not playing. His backup has 21 career snaps. They could potentially move Marpet over to center, but that would put a backup in at guard. In any case....I'll take any advantage I can get. Paging Ed Oliver...

Tremaine Edmunds has been quite good for the majority of this season. He did not have a particularly good game against the Pats on Monday night. Other than that, he's been in the PLUS column far more than the MINUS column this season. We also saw how much worse off the defense was without him in the Colts game. Still, recency bias (and a host of other, less flattering considerations) lead to people on here basically ready to cut Edmunds and replace him with a street free agent. Madness.

I don't really have a horse in the "play Antonio Williams" race. I'll only say that coaches get to see players practice, and are privy to said players' knowledge of the playbook and other factors. Perhaps Williams is bad at pass blocking. Perhaps he simply doesn't look as good in practice as the backs that have been active. Perhaps neither thing is true and Williams is actually killing it in practice and the Bills are fools for not playing him. Personally, I don't feel that "running backs aren't good enough" is the main reason our running game stinks. I'd tend to look more in the direction of our offensive line personnel not being good enough, our offensive line coach needing to be replaced, and/or our offensive coordinator not putting together a very good running game. I can't help but feel that with better blocking and scheme adjustments, all three of Moss, Singletary, and Breida could be productive. Heck, all three HAVE been productive when good blocking and scheming existed in the past. Still, all of that said, I have no problem with them giving Williams a shot one of these weeks. The fact that they haven't done so is not necessarily an indictment on our front office's ability to evaluate talent, however.

Tremaine Edmunds is a two-time Pro Bowler at age 23. Ed Oliver is wreaking havoc lately. Taron Johnson is one of the top nickel corners in the league. Dawson Knox is tied for the most touchdown receptions among tight ends in the league this year. Spencer Brown looks like he's going to be very good at right tackle. Gabriel Davis was highly productive for a 4th round rookie and looks to be a future starter. Levi Wallace is a more than capable starter at corner who they brought in via UDFA. The Bills have made the playoffs 3 out of Beane's 4 years here and will, in all likelihood, do so again this season. They went 13-3 last year and made the AFC Title because Beane and his staff built a good roster, which involves, ya know....evaluating talent. We all see what we want to see, and you're choosing to see the negative. That's okay. I'm more of a "glass half full" kind of guy. To each their own.

Yeah. 10-7 is definitely "we need other teams to do certain things in order for us to make the playoffs" territory. 11-6 should get us in for sure. Win the three remaining "should win" games and one of TB or NE and we should be a lock. No small task, given what we've seen the past few weeks. Win the three remaining "should win games" and LOSE to both TB and NE, and we're scoreboard watching the rest of the season.

I agree that there's no need to panic if we don't beat Tampa Bay. My main point is that it's still a big game, because winning it would increase the Bills playoff chances dramatically. Using the NY Times playoff machine you mention, a win in TB raises the Bills playoff odds from 77% to 90%. That's a big increase. While 77% is still "statistically more likely than not", it's not a lead pipe lock. 90% is much closer to that. By winning in TB, the Bills avoid putting themselves in a position where they HAVE to go 4-0 or 3-1 in the remaining games to make the playoffs. It takes them from "backs up against the wall and little to no margin for error" to "a little bit of breathing room". Panic if they lose? No. Unimportant game? Also no.