Logic

Thanks for your thoughts. On the one hand, some will say "it's lying season!" and "smokescreen!", and they're not entirely wrong. On the other hand, Beane has shown himself to be very honest and blunt over the years when he does these types of press conferences, and saying that there's nothing meaningful to be gained from listening to what he says ignores the evidence to the contrary that has piled up over the years. Regarding a small trade-up, I'll say this: The random report from Andrew Filiponi a few days ago that the Bills and Steelers swapping 1st round picks was "something to watch out for" raised my eyebrows. It wouldn't be cost prohibitive for the Bills, it would match the M.O. of a modest round 1 trade-up that we all know Beane seems to love, and if I'm not mistaken, the Steelers need a center, and they could still likely get a JPJ or Graham Barton at 28. If a Brian Thomas Jr or Cooper DeJean (or whomever they like) is sitting there at 20, it won't shock me one bit if this trade comes to fruition on draft night.

MEL KIPER IS THERE WITH YOU?! Listen, what a man chooses to do in the privacy of his own hotel room with some noodles and a handsome, raven-haired older gentleman is his business, but I'm not sure it needs to be discussed publicly.

The counter argument to what you're saying is that the Bills have had one of the most productive WR1s on their roster each of the past four seasons in Stefon Diggs, and have still failed to reach a Super Bowl. I'm not saying you don't need top end receiver talent. You do. I'm saying that having a collection of good receivers with different skillsets is a viable alternative. Note: I would argue that the Bills of the past couple seasons didn't fit the description of "having a collection of good receivers with different skillsets". Last year we lacked Gabe Davis in the playoffs had an all-around unimpressive WR depth chart. The year before that, we brought in the corpses of John Brown and Cole Beasley. I'm saying the Bills need to do BETTER than that. But getting ONE very good receiver prospect isn't necessarily the only avenue. Getting a handful of good receiving prospects is another option. We're in agreement that they've been deficient there the past few years, but the fact that the model of "one great WR (Diggs) and a slew of average to below average ones" HASN'T been working only supports the point I'm trying to make: that's not the only model. Spreading targets around to multiple good options (which the Bills have not had the past few years) is an alternative. All of that said, I'm on the record on this forum as being on team "trade up for one of the big three WRs", so I'm not even saying this is the path I would take if it were up to me. I'm just trying to provide context for what Beane is discussing and for how it has worked for other teams in recent years.

Yes. Agreed. Kelce has been that guy for Mahomes the past couple seasons, and Rashee Rice's emergence was huge for the Chiefs last year and into the playoffs. I suppose I mostly meant that you don't need an old school, prototypical WR1. You don't need a Ja'Marr Chase or a Justin Jefferson. You DO need dependable, high end receiving talent. But as I pointed out, Rice, Reed, and St Brown are all in a completely different mold than the old school WR1s. I look at Green Bay, and they had a slew of guys with different skillsets. Doubs, Reed, Watson, Wicks, and the tight ends Musgrave and and Kraft. There's not one GREAT receiver on that team, but there's a pile of good ones, and they all complement each other well. And yes, I realize that Green Bay hasn't made it to or won a Super Bowl with that setup. I do agree Kincaid seems to have the talent to be our de facto number one pass catcher. It is also my hope that the Bills select two receivers within the first four rounds. Actually, it's MY preference that they DO add a dynamic WR1 type, but if Beane is telling the truth and they're going more the route of "collection of good talent" over "one GREAT guy", then hopefully Kincaid or one of the draftees can be the crunch time guy when the lights are brightest.

It's sad to see so many musical heroes of that generation start to die off and/or stop touring. I had the pleasure of seeing the Allman Brothers live a couple times, but I don't believe Betts was still playing with them by that time. Anyway...Eat a Peach and Live at the Fillmore East are two of the all-time great albums. Betts had such a distinct playing style and sound. RIP to a great and singular musician.

Yeah, I think the Packers showed this last year, and honestly, the Chiefs have been showing it to some extent, too. Saying you don't need an old school WR1 is not saying you don't still need good receivers. You do. Down the stretch last year, Jayden Reed became Love's de facto number 1, and Rashee Rice became Mahomes'. Or even look at Amon Ra St Brown on the Lions. None of the three of those guys would fit the old school definition of an NFL WR1. If anything, they're all dependable, chain-moving slot specialists that the QB can look to on third down. The point is, if you have a plethora of good options, you can succeed on offense in this league. You don't necessarily need one GREAT option.

Yep. If this is the route they're going, I hope they at least draft a couple receivers. I'm fine with volume over a classic "WR1", if that's what they wanna do, but...this receiving corps needs not one, but TWO talented youngsters added to it for that to work, IMO. Rookie Samuel Shakir Rookie Hollins Shorter/Hamler/etc

I believe what you MEANT to say was... "I don't want to hear about the labor pains, just show me the baby."

To be honest, nothing makes me disregard a post and its poster more quickly than name-calling a coach or player. This ain't sixth grade recess.

I believe it because he fits the Bills "type" at WR. The rumors were that they liked Addison and JSN a lot last year and did a lot of work on both guys. Now this year, we're hearing Franklin, McConkey, and Worthy. All of these guys are smaller, faster, quicker route technician types. Just as, to some extent, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Stefon Diggs all were. I actually don't think it's a smokescreen at all. I think the Bills brass has more or less decided that Josh seems to do better with fast guys that run good routes than with big-bodied jump ball types. I think Franklin is a very real possibility for the Bills come draft weekend.

I dunno... Brandin Cooks didn't turn out to be what they hoped in that offense last year, Gallup is gone, their tight ends are all pretty mid... Who on that offense is currently scaring anyone other than CeeDee Lamb? I think "zero chance" that they take Worthy is an overstatement.

Thanks for the mock, Alpha. I have been on record here as quite liking Franklin and thinking he may be the fourth or fifth best WR in this draft. I think he's underrated. In today's NFL, with rules and schemes and offensive trends being what they are, I think he has what it takes to win his routes consistently and to be -- at worst -- a high end #2 WR, but with the upside to be a #1. If this is the route they go, I'd like to see them double dip and pair some later picks with either 60 or 78 to move up and get another receiver if one that they like starts falling. I either want one of the big three WRs, or -- failing that -- I want two WRs within the first three rounds. The Bills needed to draft a receiver early even BEFORE Diggs was traded away, and now I believe they need two. The rest more or less looks good to me, though I'm sticking with Jayden Daniels to the Commanders, and I'd much rather see Xavier Worthy in Dallas than Miami. A Hill/Waddle/Worthy three-receiver with Achane in the backfield would just be a nightmare to defend. Good work. Thanks again for sharing.

Estime is like a bull in a china shop. I'm a fan. Would be the perfect compliment to James Cook, and might actually make it so that we can run something other than JOSH ALLEN SMASH in the red zone.

Anyone think the diabetes issue that McGinn reported about this morning -- particularly as it relates to how it affects his mood and motivation levels -- will cause AD Mitchell to fall further than he otherwise might?

Dane Brugler is one of the best. His yearly "Beast" Draft guide is worth the $1.99 a month Athletic subscription all by itself. Absolutely indispensible.

I'm fine with the 1st and 2nd this year AND a 1st and 2nd next year, and later round considerations. Next year, the Bills would still have 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc...In a sense, they'd still have a pretty full allotment of picks. This year, of course, they'd be picking only in the late rounds, and would likely get nothing more than depth players. Arguably, though, at all positions other than WR and safety, that's all the Bills really need. There aren't a ton of starting spots available on this team. To answer your question: Three 1sts is too much for me, but I don't necessarily think that would be necessary. I'm not adamant that they need to get all the way up to 5, or that the pick has to be MHJ. If, say, Nabers or Odunze falls to somewhere between picks 7 and 9 -- where I could see both the Titans and Bears being willing to trade back and collect more picks -- the trade becomes a little more achievable. And I'd still be quite happy with either of those two guys, particularly Nabers, who I think is the most perfect fit for the Bills of all the WRs in this year's class.

Regarding the "Trading up for Marvin Harrison Jr" talk... I just keep coming back to the same few thoughts: 1. We've seen for several years now the same pattern: The Bills win the division, get a decent seed in the playoffs, and then what happens when they play the Chiefs or Bengals? It's the Josh Allen show, and no one else on the team steps up and makes big plays when the team needs it most. Whereas the Chiefs have Chris Jones and Travis Kelce stepping up, and the Bengals have Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins making big plays in big moments...when you close your eyes and try to picture someone other than Josh Allen making a big play in the divisional round, who do you picture? For me, the answer is "no one". That needs to change. We've seen what happens when Josh is surrounded by a handful of GOOD players. We have yet to surround him with some truly GREAT ones. 2. The Bills have been hitting singles and doubles in the draft for years now, but very few home runs. They have drafted good players, but very few STARS. I'm okay with them swinging for the fences this year to try to get our offense a STAR. 3. Fans (and teams) sometimes cling to draft picks too dearly. Let's suppose Beane trades all of his early picks this year and his 1st and 2nd round picks next year to move up. We don't end up picking again until round 5 this year, and we lack a 1st and one of our two 2nds next year. If the result of that is the Bills acquiring a potentially Hall of Fame level wide receiver to pair with Josh Allen for a decade, will anyone care a year or two from now? Are whatever strong safety and depth defensive end and second tier receiver you'd get with those picks worth more to you than a potential superstar wide receiver to pair with our franchise QB? I'm sick of being risk averse, I'm sick of seeing no one other than Josh step up in the playoffs, and I'm sick of always clinging to our draft picks like precious gold. Gold can be traded for valuable assets, ya know. Like generational playmakers with HOF bloodlines. Go get me one of the big three. Picks be damned.

Yeah I'm ready to go full Green Bay Packers and just bring in a pickup truck full of young WRs and let Josh spread the ball around. Enough with other people's castoffs. Give me cheap young labor and speed, please and thank you.

Are people genuinely arguing that the justice system doesn't work differently for rich and famous people than it does for the rest of us? Because if so...

I really don't have any interest in getting into a back-and-forth with anyone about this person's reliability. They've been right more often than they've been wrong in the past, and have been the first to break a few signings over the years. I believe they have a source on the medical side of things on the Bills staff. Believe it if you want, or don't. Me? I believe it. He also claims they really liked and did a ton of work on Addison and JSN last year. The Bills have a "type" at WR, and the interest reported last year and below point to that type. **Also of note, particularly as it relates to McConkey: Doing a bunch of medical checks on a guy doesn't NECESSARILY mean they like that player. But then, why go through the effort of doing those multiple checks if they don't have at least a reasonable amount of interest in him?

I'm guessing that people aren't wild about the prospects themselves -- Franklin and Bullard. Me? I'm a Franklin fan. If the Bills can trade back as far in real life as they did in this mock and still get Franklin while adding a 3rd, I'll be thrilled. I don't love Bullard, but would've been happy with Hicks, Bishop, or Bullock. Nevertheless, I doubt that would be possible in real life, as I anticipate Franklin getting drafted earlier than he did here. The thing is: People want to get their favorite Tier 2 receiving prospect AND still somehow net a 3rd, and as this exercise showed, you can't necessarily have your cake and eat it, too. If you want to move back far enough to net a 3rd, you're gonna miss out on some good prospects. That's just how it works. I kind of wonder if, with as direly as the Bills need WRs in this draft, they've painted themselves into a corner where they kind of CAN'T trade back that far from 28. What if they do so and entirely miss out on the receiver(s) they like? It would be catastrophic. For as much as everyone has discussed being averse to the risks involved in trading UP in this year's draft, there hasn't been nearly as much discussion about the risks of trading DOWN -- and there probably should be. If nothing else, maybe this mock draft result for the Bills will kickstart that conversation.

Just appreciative of the fact that you put these together at all! They're always fun, and they always help me learn about the draft needs of other teams. It's fun to put on my "GM hat" and try to think strategically, make trades, etc. To be honest, I think that by round three of these things, there start to be diminishing returns anyway. For all but the most ardent few draftniks, the knowledge about the prospects tends to be reduced, the interest from the spectators seems to wain, and it seems to take a real effort to limp to the finish line by the end of the round. Thanks as always for doing these, and thanks to @section122 for his hard work and to all the fellow drafters.

I certainly would be thrilled with MHJ, but... To me, Nabers is the dream get for Buffalo. His explosiveness, positional diversity, and run-after-catch are all elite. He fits what Beane recently described wanting in a WR to a "T". Both guys are gonna be great pros, but for my money, Nabers is HIM.