Logic

From their website https://edjsports.com/posts/bcb73078-aafc-45a9-8b30-4054b34ce0a7: Our Methodology EdjSports is widely acclaimed for its in-game risk management analysis and proprietary Game-Winning Chance (GWC) metric used by NFL teams and media. GWC is a team’s win probability at any point in the game and is generated from the proprietary EdjFootball simulation model. EdjSports is creating the industry standard for head coach rankings by allocating its GWC to coaching decisions. About the EdjFootball model Built on 20+ years of historical NFL play-by-play and statistical data, the EdjFootball model is a fully customizable simulation engine. It accounts for each team’s strengths and weaknesses on offense, defense, and special teams. Model inputs include game state (score, timeouts, quarter, clock, down and distance, and field position), venue characteristics (indoor, outdoor, grass, turf, elevation), second half kickoff team, key injuries and Football Outsiders DVOA. Each week the model evaluates team performances and adjusts team strengths and weakness accordingly. As a result of these analyses, over the course of a season the EdjFootball model simulates over 3 billion games to conclusion. About the EdjSports Coach Rankings EdjSports analyzes every coaching decision during the course of a season. The EdjFootball model enables an in-depth examination of all critical calls (4th downs, PATs, and kickoffs), in terms of the amount of GWC at stake. The coach’s play-calling choices (run, pass, field goal, punt) are assessed at the point of decision (pre-snap) and rated with respect to their impact on winning the game. As a result of this process all play calling decisions can be objectively classified as either optimal decisions (correct calls) or suboptimal decisions (errors). The EdjSports Coach Rankings are based on this methodology and consist of two main components that result in the overall ranking. Edj Power Indexes (EPI) Ranking This is a cumulative ranking of the Edj Power Indexes (EPIs) including Offensive Pass, Offensive Rush, Defensive Pass and Defensive Rush. This ranking is a reflection of how teams performed in every situation during the season. Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Ranking This ranking is based on an analysis of offensive play calling on 4th downs and compares teams in terms of GWC lost or gained, on a normalized basis so that all teams are given the same test. Additionally, the CCI rankings are adjusted to account for the frequency and situational nature of critical calls to allow for fair comparisons of all 32 teams. EdjSports Coach Ranking This ranking is a weighted average of the Edj Power Indexes (EPI) and Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Rankings that provides a more comprehensive assessment of coaching strengths and weaknesses.

The way I remember it, the Dolphins were hot on the Bills' trail for the AFC East lead when the Bills played the Pats on Monday Night Football. While the stakes certainly weren't as high as they are this season in such a direct way, the game DID matter.

I think this team knows how important this game is. I think McDermott's been in their ear all week long about beating "the 1st place Patriots". I think they'll want to play really hard for Tre. I think the crowd is gonna be absolutely bonkers. I think the Bills defense will give Mac Jones fits. I think the Pats defense will give Josh Allen fits. I think the weather will impact the game. I think whoever commits more turnovers loses the game. I think the Bills and Pats split their series this year, the Bills ultimately go 4-2 in their remaining six games and make the playoffs. I have no idea who wins the division or gets the one seed. The AFC playoff race is as tight as I can ever remember it being.

"He can't beat his mentor, Andy Reid!". He beat Andy Reid. "He can't beat good teams!". He beat good teams, multiple times. "He can't win primetime games in a national showcase!". He won primetime games, multiple times. "He can't win playoff games!". He won playoff games. "He can't beat Bill Belichick!". He beat Bill Belichick, twice. I guess the last two dragons left to slay are Belichick in a "meaningful" game and the Super Bowl. So far, he's done pretty well at slaying the dragons placed before him.

Yeah. No need to get bowled over by the wind reports...this weather should be a breeze.

I was reading Peter King's FMIA column this morning (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/06/ravens-steelers-nfl-week-13-fmia-peter-king/) and came across this: "The top and bottom-rated coaches in the league through 12 weeks in the EdjSports Head Coach Rankings say something about the meaning of coaches in the game. The rankings measure every coaching decision through a series of metrics including fourth-down calls and play-calling choices (judged pre-snap, not after the result). Here are the rankings and explanation of the parameters. Top five 1. Brandon Staley 2. Matt LaFleur 3. Kliff Kingsbury 4. Sean McDermott 5. Frank Reich Bottom five 28. Pete Carroll 29. Dan Campbell 30. Joe Judge 31. Robert Saleh 32. Mike Tomlin Team records through 12 weeks of the top five coaches: 37-20. Bottom five: 15-38-2." I thought that was pretty interesting, and encouraging, particularly because McDermott sometimes catches a lot of flak around these parts for his gameday decision making. Personally, I feel that it's gotten better and better in each year as a head coach. Every now and then, he reverts back to conservative tendencies, but by and large, he's aggressive, smart, and clearly relies on his analytics team on gamedays. For those curious how these rankings are put together, Below is the link to the actual EdjSports Head Coach Rankings. Given that the combined record of their top five coaches is impressive, while the combined record of their bottom five coaches is abysmal, I'd argue that perhaps they have a decent set of rankings. https://edjsports.com/posts/bcb73078-aafc-45a9-8b30-4054b34ce0a7

I seem to remember the wintry weather of Buffalo historically being seen as an ADVANTAGE -- or at least not a disadvantage -- for the Bills. I remember great players from opposing teams in the days of yore talking about how intimidating it was to go play in Orchard Park in December or January. Now, if you go on Bills Twitter (or talk to many members of this forum), winter weather is this horrible, awful, no-good thing that should hands down be prompting the Bills to build a dome stadium. From the perspective of enjoying the game live as a spectator, I kind of get it -- I mean, watching football outdoors in the elements is nothing new, and people have been doing it, and loving it, for years, but okay...I get it. Having numb extremities is no fun. From the perspective of griping about how it affects the team's performance...I don't get it quite so much. If the answer is "well, tough, hard nosed teams that are good at running the football have the advantage in cold weather!", then that sounds like a failure in team building rather than justification for a dome. Knowing where they play home games, you'd think the Bills would prioritize running the ball and stopping the run and being a tough, hard nosed football team. If the reasoning is "so that our star QB can thrive!", I ask "how the hell did Brady, Favre, Elway, Bradshaw, Unitas, Starr, and Graham have Hall of Fame careers playing their home games in outdoor, cold weather stadiums?! How come Peyton Manning -- who played most of his career in a dome -- had his best season ever in the elements of Mile High?" Alas, another week of "THIS IS WHY WE SHOULD BUILD A DOME!!!" talk in the books.

Wait....so you're telling me that I'm wrong, you're right, and you knew it would be this way all along? I'm shocked. Shocked I say. I simply can't BELIEVE that you two happened to know better, and now you're here to tell us you were right. Can't believe it.

Fair. And don't get me wrong, what little I HAVE seen this week has seemed dramatically pro Pats and anti Bills, but... If I'm an unbiased fan or media person looking at this game -- if I don't know either team intimately and I'm just going on gut feel based on what each team has shown this season -- I'd lean Pats, too. They've won six straight, have looked mostly lights out on defense, take the ball away a lot, and prior to last year, they owned the Bills for two decades. Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-3 in their last six with losses to the lowly Jags and a SLAUGHTER at the hands of the Colts, are turning the ball over a bunch, and just lost their best defensive player for the year. I happen to think there's a good chance the Bills win this game, and there are a lot more variables under the surface than the cliff's notes I just provided above, but...taking a quick glance at this game, I sort of get why everyone is picking the Pats. I think what's really behind a lot of the angst from Bills fans is that we expected the Pats to be bad for a few years. We expected to own the division for a while. Instead, the Pats appear to be right back to their winning ways, have a quarterback who is legitimately playing well, and it has all of us collectively shaking our heads in astonishment and asking what we have done to anger the football gods.

Before kvetching and hyperventilating about ESPN and NFL Network pre-game coverage, it helps to remember two key points: 1.) The NFL is a television show. The coaches and players are the stars. The fortunes and misfortunes of the teams are the plot. Put simply: Greatest coach of all time Bill Belichick winning six straight games and taking the AFC East lead behind a quarterback that reminds people of the HOF guy he used to have under center (who just won a Super Bowl elsewhere last year) is a juicy plot line featuring a star character. A small market team like Buffalo, with one recent year of major success and an up-and-down roller coaster of a season this year, is not nearly as captivating a storyline for the majority of NFL viewers. 2.) All the talking heads on all the sports networks are fed talking points and, in some cases, scripts or at least outlines of what they should say. 99% of all NFL talking head shows don't feature any real analysis, intelligent breakdowns, or unbiased explication of matchups. The talking heads, too, are characters on the TV show, many with their own outrageous schtick. They'll jump on whatever bandwagon represents the juiciest storyline, the flavor of the week, the soup de jour. It's nothing personal. Instead of getting sucked into the TV show, I prefer coverage that actually breaks down the game, talks about strengths and weaknesses, and educates the listener/viewer. Things like Greg Cosell, the Cover 1 guys, articles on The Athletic, some of the NFL Radio coverage like Movin the Chains. If you want to watch the mainstream media coverage of football, just remember: they're only going to say a bunch of nice things about your team if said team has been playing in a way that makes them a juicy storyline for the national viewer. The Bills haven't been doing that lately. The Pats have. It's just a TV show.

Not you, evidently.

This is the dude that said "only elite white people should own guns", right? Happy trails, Jake...

I'm in an abusive relationship with the Buffalo Bills. They keep promising they'll change, and I keep believing them and sticking with them. And yet, they keep right on hurting me, again and again. My friends are all like "can't you see they'll never change? Just leave them now and find someone that makes you happy!" and I'm all "no, it'll be different this time, you'll see!". On and on it goes.

While it's more than fair to be critical of the Bills' coaches this year, I disagree with this statement. The second Dolphins game and the Saints game stand out as games where halftime adjustments were clearly made, and were effective. They have been outcoached and out-schemed at times this year, I won't deny that. But they're not suddenly terrible, and they don't "make zero halftime adjustments". For all the hand wringing on here, the offense and defense are still above average in most categories, and the Bills are still 7-4 (not 2-9, like one would think based on some of the comments around here).

To be fair, I think Beane figured that re-signing Williams and Feliciano WAS "sinking some real money into the offensive line" in a productive way. Williams was very good at right tackle last year. Feliciano was just average. Nevertheless, with these two on board last year, the Bills offense was lights out. I certainly don't think Beane expected Williams' play to drop off so drastically or for Feliciano to report to camp 20 lbs lighter without consulting the training staff about it. I, too, wish they had addressed the guard positions in a more meaningful way -- specifically, with draft picks. Many on these forums wish the same thing. Still, some of the drop-off in level of o-line play (Williams, Feliciano) was difficult to foresee, and it's not as if they haven't made an effort at all. All of that said, I hope they pour serious draft capital and/or free agency dollars into the interior o-line this offseason. The tackle and center spots are fine, but they need to do everything in their power to improve at guard. Enough of this "throw mediocre players at a wall and see what sticks" strategy.

If only there was some other thread discussing the Pats game...

I agree, and it's so weird to me. I get sending a message that ball security is important. I get taking the return job away from McKenzie. But why have they been so hesitant to utilize him on offense this year? I could be mistaken, but for all McKenzie's ball security issues on returns, I can't ever remember him fumbling on offense. For a guy who played an important -- niche, sure, but important nonetheless -- role in our offense last year, it's been so weird to see McKenzie basically MIA in that department all year long. And now that he's lost the return job, he CERTAINLY won't be helping on offense because he won't be active on game days. For a guy who possesses a skillset that none of our other receivers do, and who seems to be well liked in the locker room and a motivator of fellow players...I just sort of don't understand the entire McKenzie...SITUATION this year. Just strange.

Just curious... Where were you last season? I don't remember you sharing any of these priceless pearls of wisdom during the year we swept you.

The thing that bothers me the most about the Patriots hype is that they have had essentially the same easy schedule the Bills have had. The best win they have is over the Chargers, and you can argue that the Bills' win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead was as impressive or more so. Other than that, it's a whole bunch of middling teams and bottom feeders. Unlike with the Bills, however, the media NEVER mentions this. You want to knock the Bills for only beating nobodies this year? Fine, but knock the Pats for the same thing!

I don't imagine Josh will EVER be the cerebral, game managing Brady type. I view him as much more of a Favre type. I think he'll ALWAYS be a "no, no, no, no......YESSS!!!" guy. He'll likely throw less interceptions than Favre -- he's already better in that category than #4 was. But I predict he'll always have that "win it all or break your heart" gene, and we'll have to learn to take the good with the bad.

I know that this has been the ultimate "any given Sunday" season, but in my mind, the Bills should absolutely beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Jets. That puts them at 10 wins. Win one of the Patriots games and their playoff ticket should be punched.

Your first statement damages your credibility -- which was already on pretty thin ice. Your post as a whole? Heck, your entire SCHTICK as a whole? It's getting really old, really fast. You've risen up the "trolls to be ignored" list incredibly quickly. Bravo.

Just a little traditional Thanksgiving listening to warm our hearts and homes as we wait for the Bills to destroy the Saints. Side note: that little section of the "All Madden" documentary they just showed about the turducken being given to the MVP after Thanksgiving games in the 90s has me feeling nostalgic. I miss Madden and Sumerall, but I miss the tradition of giving meat of questionable origin and safety to NFL players after Turkey Day games even more. I'm glad Josh got them to give him a turkey leg after we beat the Cowboys. I'll always remember Tre White running up and taking a big bite of it on the field in the post-game interview.

In my mind, this has all the makings of the type of game the McDermott Bills usually win. The Saints have a bad quarterback, depleted offensive line and receiving corps and running back room, will be missing their best pass rusher, and the game will be taking place in a dome. Further, the Bills rarely (not never, but rarely) lose two games back-to-back under McDermott. I'm predicting a Bills win. Not necessarily a blowout, but a win.