2003Contenders

And let's not look past the Jets, either. If the OL/DL doesn't improve, even that game is no gimme.

It's funny, really, that we as fans tend to over-analyze how good of a job a coaching staff is doing. Could it be that the level of talent in some aspects of the team simply isn't there? In particular, the team is getting OWNED in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is not opening any holes for the running game -- and, while they are doing much better in pass protection, I think Josh's mobility helps mask some deficiencies there as well. The defensive line is getting ZERO push and can't get off blocks. Last night we saw KC running backs getting 6 or 7 yards before any kind of contact whatsoever. That isn't just a tackling issue -- it is a problem with linemen being unable to fight off blocks and be in the position to make a tackle. And this came against a KC offensive line that was a bit banged up. Is the coaching partly to blame? Perhaps. For example, I am not sure what scheme that they devised that would have left Kelce so wide open on a number of plays. However, for as bad as the team was man-handled last night -- they were still very much in the game until late in the 4th quarter. Maybe, the coaching staff deserves some credit for coming up with a scheme that allowed the game to remain competitive on the score board, even if the game itself was decidedly one-sided. Beane certainly bears some responsibility for having underestimated the impact of key losses like Starr, Alexander, Phillips, Lawson, etc. Now that we are in mid-season, it is hard to expect help coming from the street (or trade). So the coaches are going to have to figure out the best way to get the most out of what they have. Getting Milano back will help, but he's also not going to help with the DL deficiencies. Also, maybe Mongo will provide some toughness on the OL if/when he ever returns. Bill Parcells never predicted Super Bowl appearances when he was coaching. He always said that his job as a head coach was to take the players he was given and get the most out of them. He once said that he felt his best performance as a head coach came in 2000 when he was coaching the Jets -- and they finished 8-8 with a 3rd string QB as his starter. Until the team figures out a way to overcome getting owned at the line of scrimmage, it is going to be difficult to win ANY games, including the next one against the Jets. Obviously the coaching staff must devise plans that will help to mask these deficiencies. The players need to dig deep, and where they are over-matched, at least play mistake-free.

Yea, this makes 0 sense. I knew eventually the kid was going to get in there -- but only after they were eliminated from the playoffs or Fitz started stinking up the joint. Well, right now they are just 1 game out of first place and Fitza has been playing great. If Tua gets in there and starts making rookie mistakes -- the outcry from fans will be to go back to Fitz. What will that do to the psyche of the young QB?

Well, Aikman was one of the "Never Joshers" during the pre-draft hype back in 2018, and was very critical of the Bills taking Allen over Rosen. That is one of the reasons that I was really hoping that we would see the Josh of the first 4 games last night, just so that Aikman would have to shut his mouth. Alas, that was not meant to be as Josh clearly missed on a few passes. As an aside, though, for those of you who are old like me and remember Aikman's playing days... he could NOT THROW A WET FOOTBALL. When playing in raining conditions, for whatever reason, he could not get a proper grip on the ball and it would not come out of his hand properly. Maybe he should have taken that into context with last night's game. Regarding accuracy, it is true that during his era, Troy Aikman was one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL. The Dallas practices were legendary as supposedly the balls on some days would never hit the ground. There are others in more recent years like Brady and Brees who have managed on pinpoint accuracy rather than having elite arm strength. We've seen Josh be deadly accurate, so it's not like he is incapable. I can't sit here and tell you that he will ever be a consistently 65% accurate QB -- that just may never be who he is. But he has so many other things in his arsenal that such a short-coming may not be the end of the world. And, BTW, Terry Bradshaw was never a 60% completion guy either. A different era, I know, but that is one of the things about Josh Allen, he really is a throwback style QB. The game last night was billed as Mahomes Against Allen, and Mahomes definitely won the first round. However, one QB had the benefit of RBs who rushed for a combined 300 yards, while the other led his team in rushing. One had very little pressure in his face all night, while the other was constantly besieged by unblocked defenders (and actually did a pretty good job averting the pressure). Does Josh need to be better? Absolutely. The miss on the pass to a wide open Singletary in the first quarter as well as the miss to Beasley across the middle are passes he has to make -- and either one of those 3rd down completions could very well have resulted in a different outcome to this game.

Like much of the rest of the team, Josh definitely had an off night -- but he also made some plays. As for Roberts, it really was a nightmare of a game, starting with lousy returns, the interception that was 100% on him and ending with the fumble to hammer home what a mess the whole night was for the team. With games like this (especially under the circumstances), you almost have to throw it out and move on.

While I get the need to prep for the Chiefs on such a short (and still uncertain) turnaround, I hope the team isn't looking past the Titans. I know the Titans are hobbled but (as of now) most of their roster will be suiting up for the game on Tuesday. Hopefully the off-day today is to provide the Bills players with a chance to heal up a bit, given the current injury list and the extra 2 days of prep that they already have over the Titans, rather than jumping the gun and already prepping for Kansas City. In the grand scheme of things, the need to win the game in Tennessee (assuming it goes on as planned) is just as important as winning the KC game -- and this game would appear to be more winnable than the KC game, just don't want to underestimate the Titans.

My guess is that the NFL is waiting to see the test results tomorrow morning (from today's tests). If the Titans are clear -- and they pass all tests again tomorrow, then they can get on the practice field Saturday and Sunday -- then play Monday night. It would be nice if they could get tomorrow's results by CoB tomorrow rather than having to wait until Saturday morning for confirmation. Any failed tests from either today or tomorrow would be no game this week.

Funny enough, last week everyone around here said that Carr was a check-down artist and that the only necessity for the defense was to keep Jacobs and the Raiders' only receiving threat (Waller) in check, given that Edwards and Ruggs were both out. The defense did exactly that as neither of those guys were big factors. Sometimes you have to credit the opponent. For all of the jokes about Gruden, he remains a great offensive mind. And Carr played really well yesterday, completing the ball to multiple receivers and threading the needle a number of times. That said, it is now 3 weeks in a row where the defense has allowed the opposing QB to put up nice numbers -- and to look really comfortable. The pass rush did seem to look much better in the 2nd half yesterday, so hopefully that will carry over.

Looking at it game-by-game, what we saw against the Jets in Game 1 was a similar (albeit, significantly improved) formula that was used last season -- with Josh using his running ability as a heavy part of the the game plan. That same week, the Dolphins were heavily gashed by Cam Newton -- so fearing a similar fate against the Bills in Week 2, the coaching staff focused on taking that part of the game away from Josh in Week 2. The Miami gameplan was to keep Josh in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm -- which he did to the tune of over 400 yards passing. That game was the real coming out party for Josh as a complete QB. You could really see in that game how the light switch has come on for him -- and how much the game has slowed down. He is reading defenses much better now and can survey the whole field. Remember in reviewing game film last season how many open receivers we would see that Josh missed? Not so much this year. He is seeing the field much better, trusting what he sees (trusting his supporting cast better too) -- and less inclined to take off and run. Since the Miami game, Dabol and the coaching staff have been content to not fix what ain't broken. Josh's running ability is a significant element of his arsenal, but as long as teams are respecting that part of his game and allowing our deep corps of receivers to see one-on-one coverage, we will continue to see more passing from Josh. It will be interesting to see what happens when we start facing better defenses.

This. And, to your point, it is not an excuse to point out that the Bills matched up against the "Good Fitz" last Sunday. As we have seen, when he is on, Fitz can be downright lethal. Passes were coming out of his hand quickly (withstanding numerous hits from the defense in the process), were right on the money and he was trusting his receivers to make plays. And those receivers made some fantastic contested receptions. He played the same way against the Jags last night: 18 of 20 on pass attempts. I'm not sure that Goff has the mental make-up to stand in there and take the shots that Fitz endured last week -- or the mobility to evade pressure. Of course, the defense was indeed a bit soft in the middle of the field last week -- hopefully we get one or both LBs back this week to help.

I doubt that the injury came on the elusive fumble play. Remember, after the video resumed (which was after the fumble), Knox had a near-catch down the seam that was stripped at the last second as he was hitting the ground. It was a great throw by Josh and a nice play by the defender to get the ball out before Knox could secure it. I wonder if that was the play in which he got hurt?

With the expected extra windy conditions, my suspicion is that the Rams' gameplan (similar to what the Eagles' was against us in similar conditions last year) will be to focus on the running game with some mixed in play-action passes. The Bills had trouble stopping the run and Josh turned the ball over in that game against the Eagles last year, which proved to be our most lop-sided loss of the season. If I'm McD and Frazier, I focus on stopping the run and try to secure against the short-to-medium routes in the passing game. Dare Goff to beat them over the top. Offensively, it would be nice to get the traditional ground game going.

I think it is fair to presume that the coaching staff's plan is to plug Moss into the role that they tried to have Gore play last season. I expect (hope) that Moss will be a significant upgrade over the 2019 version of the aging Gore. Time will tell what the split-breakdown will be between Moss and DS. I will say that Moss does appear to have the skill-set to be an every-down feature back, but we will have to see what he looks like against NFL-level competition.

I think there may have been an element of laziness on the part of some of the scouting here. That is, the common theme I kept hearing is that he made only a single 50+ yard kick in his college career. That has nothing to do with leg strength. Accuracy, maybe -- but just as likely this was a product of a conservative coaching staff being unwilling to attempt long field goals.

Also interesting that in the trade-up discussions he had with other GMs in the 3rd round, Beane said he thought he had a deal worked out with one of them but the guy kept hemming and hawing and it was getting too late to make the deal before the pick was due. Turned out for the best, since they managed to land Moss without having to trade up.

100% agree. And to make matters worse, there were PLENTY of signs heading into the draft that the pick was a real reach. The dude was not especially highly regarded heading into his last season in college. He did have a freakish first-step on game film, but he ran a terrible 40 time -- and had major issues with his weight fluctuating. He wasn't cut out to be either a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 DE (which is what Jauron and his staff were hoping for). Not many fans or pundits liked the pick back then, and there were plenty of decent players still on the board when Russ/Modrak made the pick. (Modrak later claimed that he really wanted to draft Brian Cushing there, but Russ over-ruled him.) This was also one of the last years before the rookie wage scale kicked in, so Maybin and his agent (RIP, Eugene) milked the system and pretty much held out the entire 2009 training camp. I always felt that when Maybin heard his name announced, he thought his work was done (namely, doing the pre-draft stuff to get himself drafted in the 1st round) and was never serious about doing what was necessary to be the best he could be on the field. Ironically, what little Maybin did on the field was with Rex and the Jets a couple of years later. Rex utilized him as a situational pass-rusher. Guys like that grow on trees and are usually 5th or 6th round draft picks -- not top 10 overall! The fact that the team actually did pretty well with their next few picks in that draft class -- Wood, Byrd and Levitre -- lessened the sting of that horrific first pick.

Would have to be this year's 1 and 2 and next year's 1 at a MINIMUM. Probably more than that.

Here is the thing that keeps getting over-looked by all of these "experts", especially the ones that more or less simply use stats to make their case rather than watching the games: Josh Allen is a throw-back QB. That is, he plays much more like the QBs from days past. Kenny Stabler comes to mind in terms of his playing style. Physically, Allen is as talented as any QB who has played in the league since Elway and Favre. Favre had the luxury of playing in a West Coast style offense with some of the greatest supporting coaches in the history of the league (Holmgren, Reid, Mooch, Gruden, etc.) for most of his career. Elway hit his stride in his final years with the likes of Fossil and Shanahan finally figuring out how to reign him in. Before that, Elway was largely an un-molded piece of clay, much like Josh is now. Josh Allen remains a polarizing QB -- and he entered the league as such. Classic scouts viewed him as a generational physical specimen, with many (Kiper, Simms and others) believing he was a justified 1st overall selection in the draft. The modern analytics guys preferred Mayfield and Rosen, who posted better numbers at the college level. After two seasons in the league, Allen's performances to date have justified both camps' evaluations. Josh has clearly shown the physical talent that the scouts raved about -- and, if anything, his mobility in particular has been an even better-than-advertised trait. Meanwhile, the lack of consistency and less-than-ideal accuracy have allowed the detractors to hang around in stride. The good news is that he HAS shown improvement during his short time in the league. Remember, the pre-injury versus the post-injury Josh Allen during his rookie season. Last year, remember the Josh Allen before the first Patriots game where he tried too often to play "hero ball" versus the guy after that game who normally took pretty good care of the ball. For the analytics guys, it is certainly worth noting the improvement in completion percentage that we saw from 2018 to 2019. The biggest problem for him last year was actually being unable to connect consistently on the deep ball, which he has reportedly been working on since the season ended. I doubt that he will ever be a pinpoint passer a la Drew Brees who consistently connects on 70% of his passes. However, with the other things he brings to the table, Josh Allen will play at a high level in this league if he can bump that completion percentage up to around 60% and connect more regularly on the deep passes. One last point I wanted to make... and it has to do with what is actually being asked of Allen. Like Allen, a throw-back QB, Sean McD is also a throw-back coach. He ascribes to the old tried-and-true mantra of building your team with a strong defense, pounding the ball on offense, keeping the score close, and asking the offense to make just enough plays in the 4th quarter to pull it out. I doubt that we will ever see Josh participate in very many shoot-outs, as that simply is not the style of play that McD prefers. So those grumbling about Josh having yet to pass for 300 yards in a game have to take this into consideration. That said, I would love to see Josh show that he CAN win such a game if placed in the position of having to do so.

While Beane keeps things close to the vest, he is a straight shooter. I would suggest that he likely HAS contemplated trading back into the 1st round -- and realized that doing so would likely cost this year's 2nd rounder PLUS next year's 1st (plus maybe more) to do so. And that would be just to trade up to an area close to where our original 1st rounder would have been. Suffice to say, he's not going to do that, barring something crazy happening. So as he said, he is not even contemplating it "right now". Beane likes his late-round draft picks, but he also likes to use those pieces as trade-up chips. Also, when the roster becoming more and more stable, I think he would rather come away with 2-3 relevant players rather throw darts at 6-7. Regardless, with just 2 picks in the top 100, he is going into the draft a bit low on ammo. One of Beane's best attributes is that he is good at predicting moves ahead-of-time. That is why I could see him moving down to acquire more draft picks -- and then using those additional picks to move back up in the middle rounds. I would expect him to move up a bit (5-10 spots) in the 2nd round if he sees a guy he really likes and is worried that he won't be on the board at 54. With the 5th-round pick being higher (10th), that could be enough to make such a modest move, if warranted. Making these 2nd round moves has actually been his MO in his previous drafts with the Bills. Conversely, I could also see him -- if he sees multiple guys with close grades still on the board at 54 -- picking up an extra pick to move back a few spots.

That 2001 draft was probably the best draft of the drought. It also happened to be Donahoe's first year on the job -- and the only draft during his tenure without Modrak, whom he hired a few weeks after this draft. That could have been purely coincidence -- but I bet not. Anyway, Donahoe was remarkably patient in that draft, trading down multiple times in the first couple of rounds, landing us a number of solid players. Nate Clements, Aaron Schobel, Travis Henry, Ron Edwards, Jonas Jennings, and Spoon were all selected in the first 4 rounds. Five of those six players would become starters for the Bills.

One of the great things about Beane is that, while he chooses his words carefully and uses "GM-speak" here and there, he is also very straightforward and honest. He is not going to bad-mouth a player like Yeldon who is on the current roster -- but that doesn't mean he will ignore the need for an upgrade. As he says, the team has to be flexible heading into the draft. I agree also the "as it stands" clarifier regarding Devin makes it clear that he would like to add more competition there. If a RB that the Bills feel is a potential "bell cow" backs is available in the 2nd round, I could absolutely see Beane trading up to get him. Meanwhile, if that opportunity isn't there, I could also see him waiting until the middle rounds to address the position -- and pick up a complimentary back to Devin.

Beane likely had a number of strategies as it pertains to the WR position headed into Free Agency: Plan A, Plan B, etc. The plan sequence may have been based less on desirability and more on time factors, since free agency operates in such a hasty vacuum. While Sanders would have certainly been a worthwhile acquisition, I suspect -- given his age -- that signing him would not have precluded the team from making additional moves at the position... for example, a high draft pick in the up coming draft. We also don't know what other discussions were going on simultaneously. How confident was Beane that he would be able to make the move to get Diggs, for example? Note also that athletes and their agents like to put their own spin on things. That is, we can't necessarily take what Sanders said at face value. It could be (as he suggests) that the Bills were eager to sign Sanders, worried about not being able to do so when he asked for another day to decide -- and then went full court toward the Vikings with an offer to acquire Diggs. Or, maybe the Diggs deal came up quickly and somewhat unexpectedly during Sanders' wait. Or, maybe the Bills were all in on trying to get Diggs from the beginning and the possibility of signing Sanders was a contingency plan in case they could not make the trade with the Vikings. I think it is certainly believable that there was mutual interest and Sanders and the Bills may have even got to the point where they had reached an agreement on compensation. However, that does not mean that an offer was firm or that Beane and OBD were ready to consummate a deal. IMHO, given how free agency operates in the first 48 hours, the fact that Beane allowed Sanders to leave town without a contract tells me that the Bills' pursuit of him was not as epic as Sanders suggests. In the end, I am happy with the move that they made to obtain Diggs -- and I suspect that the front office, coaches and players are too.

Yep. And I love Andre but he could be a bit of a diva at times too.

I trust McBeane to have a plan. They saw first-hand back in 2018 what happens when your RB depth chart is depleted. Who can forget the game against the Pats when the only healthy player in the backfield was DiMarco -- and he too got banged up late in the game. Josh had to essentially play both QB and RB in the 4th quarter of that game. There were rumors of Beane having been in talks with a couple of the RBs (M. Gordon, etc.) who wound up signing with other teams in free agency. Where there's smoke there is usually fire. I sense that Beane realizes that there is a need for an additional RB -- but he also realizes that there are plenty of options in FA and the draft that prohibit the need to overpay. As others have pointed out, there are still some serviceable guys (Hyde, Freeman, Miller, etc.) still out there in free agency. I expect the Bills to bring one of them in on a modest deal AND use the draft as another means of addressing the need. I honestly believe the draft could go any number of ways. If the RBs somehow fall to the point where a bell cow guy is there in the middle of the 2nd round, I could see Beane make a modest move up to get him with the belief that this would REALLY bolster the position, essentially finding a guy that could potentially be an upgrade over Singletary -- that is, become the 1A to Devin's 1B. Conversely, I could see them pass on a RB in the 2nd (and even 3rd) if they see better value there at other positions -- and address the position in the mid rounds with a "diamond in the rough" (e.g. Aiken) to compete for the 1B role.

The team's MO -- even in prior regimes -- has been to move around in the 2nd round. Odds are pretty good that they will not be picking at 54 when it all said and done. If there is a guy they like with a 1st round grade, then I can see them moving up a bit.