2003Contenders

It is hard to fairly evaluate Josh Allen based purely on statistics for a number of reasons: 1. The conservative mindset of the coaching staff, in which case 300-yard passing games will always be a rarity. 2. The fact that his rushing ability is such a big part of his overall game. That said, there are certainly areas in which he needs to continue to improve in terms of decision-making and accuracy. Bill Parcells once described the 4-year cycle for QBs. Year 1: Rookie season; You are looking for "potential"; however, it is unfair to fully assess a young, rookie QB. Year 2: Given the baseline that was provided in Year 1, are there signs of improvement? If not, then time to move on. Year 3: Should be starting to put things together and play a role in putting the team in playoff position. If not, then time to move on. Year 4: Should know by now whether the QB is a Franchise QB. If he is, you are set. If he isn't, can you still win with him? If the answer is, yes, then start thinking about an upgrade -- if not, then time to move on. I think that Josh has actually been on the fast track with thumbs up for both Year 2 and Year 3 based on the Parcells criteria. With continued improvement (and upgrades to supporting offensive talent), I am hopeful for once and for all that he will prove to be the Franchise QB (i.e. able to keep up in a shootout against an opposing high-powered offense) that the team has been longing for since Kelly.

Can't argue with the points about the weak schedule and blessed injury situation. But... We are in great cap shape, so I would expect a net gain (rather than a loss) from the talent perspective. I expect continued progression from Josh as well as improvements to his supporting cast on offense. I do not anticipate a decline in defense -- and trust McD and Frazier to make adjustments on defense to compensate for potential losses (Phillips, Lawson, etc.) I also feel like McD is the type of coach who will learn from his past mistakes. Look for this team to rally around the notion that they have unfinished business to complete in 2020. Also, it is hard to guess just how difficult the schedule will be. For example, at this time last year I had road games in Dallas and Pittsburgh penciled in as likely losses.

I too get the sense that the coaching staff is less bothered by Kroft's presence than we are. The emergence of Knox helped to cushion the blow that Kroft's disappointing season provided. I have a feeling that he will be given another year in the system, given the injury situation early on. Also, he did sign a relatively hefty contract last season with a signing bonus -- so the cap ramifications for cutting him may actually outweigh the cost (at least in cap terms of keeping him in 2020). I know our cap situation is strong -- but still... Lee Smith has to be the goner. That should open the way for more playing time for Sweeney -- and vacate a roster spot for another TE. I do not expect that spot to be filled by someone like Hooper or Henry though. More likely another journeyman or mid-round draft prospect.

Much has been made of the JJ Watt sack that led to the 16-0 field goal (which kept the game within a potential 2-score margin) and ultimately proved to be the turning point of the game. It is true that you could see the tide turn after that play - beginning with the Texans' next offensive series that led to their first score of the game, where Watson carried multiple defenders with him to the goal line -- and also broke a tackle to convert the 2-point conversion on the following play. However, it is worth noting how much softer the defense was playing on this series than they had previously in the game when holding the Texans scoreless. In particular, one play no one talks about is the play that was just prior to Watson's TD run. It was 3rd and 8 from roughly midfield, and a stop here would have been huge. However, Tre is playing a good 10 yards off Hopkins in a soft zone. Watson sees it and is able to make the easy pitch-and -catch to Watson to pick up the 1st down. That may not be as dramatic as the 3rd-and-18 fiasco, but it still illustrates how much the Bills' easing off the throttle contributed to the Texans' ability to shift the momentum of the game.

I was VERY surprised that the game was not stopped and Josh examined for a possible concussion after that play. I was also surprised that a flag wasn't thrown for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cunningham. Regardless, as you said, if Knox and Morse do their job, that hit never happens.

That was a 50-50 play in which each participant deserves some credit: the line for giving Josh time to set his feet and make the throw, Josh for making a pinpoint pass, Duke for being in the position to make the catch -- and the defender for doing enough to prevent the conversion. While I agree that a top-notch receiver should make that catch -- and Duke will probably tell you himself that he wished that he had come down with the ball -- the truth of the matter is that it is hardly a "drop". Or, how about this... That play represented not only a non-TD that would have put the Bills up by 3 scores going into halftime -- but it also represented a failed 3rd down conversion. What makes it worse is that they were in that position because of the two wasted plays on 1st down and 2nd down. The first was the inexplicable hand-off to Gore; the second was a spike to stop the clock. Maybe if the Bills had run three similar pass plays (passes to the endzone -- whether to Duke or someone else), their odds of completing just ONE of those THREE hypothetical shots certainly would have been better than the all-or-nothing SINGLE pass play to Duke. Maybe that's just me...

Which is also why no flag was thrown late in the game on an obvious roughing the passer penalty on Watt.

I get what you are saying, but the 1994 Steve Young ins not a fair comparison. This was Josh Allen's 2nd season in the NFL, so the comparison would be to Steve Young circa 1985, which still isn't apples to apples, given that Young was playing in the USFL at that time. Remember, Young's early NFL years were spent in Tampa Bay, where he sucked (admittedly TB was a CF in those days). When Bill Walsh traded for him a few years later, Walsh was ridiculed for having done so (especially with Montana still in his prime). It wasn't until Young played under Walsh, Holmgren, Hackett, etc. and behind Montana for 2-3 years that the Steve Young you speak of emerged. Let's hope Josh gets something approaching that manner of care and tutelage over the next several years -- and see where he is at then ?

I think the key is going to be the OTHER CBs and how well they are able to defend crossing routes, slants, etc. While Tre has handled his business against opposing teams' top WR, it has been the other DBs who have struggled against slot WRs (Edelman, Landry, Crowder, etc.).

I am not sure if the OP was being a troll, but on a serious note, I tend to agree with the notion that the team will have to play at a different level in the playoffs if they expect to truly be "Championship Caliber". This means employing an aggressive defense like we saw against the Cowboys and Steelers -- and NOT the laid back one we saw against the Pats two weeks ago. Offensively, it is also time to let Josh Allen wear big boy pants, rather than play overly conservative -- as has been the case since the win over Dallas.

Keep thinking that if Duke is running that slant route at the end of the Ravens game and in the back of the end zone against the Pats...

That was a very interesting season, and I remember many of those games well: -- The season started off on the wrong foot right away with an upset loss to the Jets at home. That was the game where Thurman supposedly said some off-putting things to a young fan after the game. -- The shootout against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day that ended with a Kelly pick-sick in the final seconds. -- Kelly and Reed having a highly publicized argument on the sidelines of a MNF game against Pittsburgh. The following week against Green Bay, Reed set the (then) NFL record for the most receptions in a game. -- Although Miami won the division, the Bills went on the sweep them in the regular season. -- In another back-and-forth game against the Vikings, Kelly went down with a knee injury. Reich was unable to lead the Bills to victory -- and lost the final two games filling in for Kelly. -- The defense was really bad that year. In fact, when the season was over, Marv finally fired the DC and brought in Wade.

I like the list -- but also have to say that we need some better CBs (to better compliment Tre). Good slot WRs (Crowder, Landry, Edelmann...) have feasted on us this year.

I think it was very vanilla. Indeed, there were times where I wondered whether the coaches were intentionally trying to keep things close to the vest and not give away too much with the playoffs looming in a two weeks. The reality is that this game REALLY meant something to the Pats (playing for a bye), whereas even a victory here still made the likelihood of the Bills improving their playoff positioning far-fetched, given that the Pats would also have to lose at home to the Dolphins next week. But then I reminded myself that this is who the Bills are under McD -- which is not necessarily a bad thing. He and his coaches preach ball control, shortening the game -- and bend-but-don't break defense. The bend-but-don't break philosophy works against many offenses, because it is so hard to consistently finish 10-15 play drives without making mistakes. Alas, when you face an opponent like Brady, who rarely makes mistakes (and is aided by the officials), that bend-but-don't break philosophy can lead to death by a thousand paper cuts. That is largely what happened yesterday as evidenced by the glaring distinction in time-of-possession and yardage. Even so, that disparity did not equate to what was on the scoreboard, as the Bills were in position to tie the game inside of 2 minutes. In a way, the fact that they were in the game despite the lop-sided play counts, somewhat justifies McD's philosophy, no? Putting aside the play-calling, this was one of the defense's weaker efforts of the season in terms of execution. Way too many missed tackles -- and from usually reliable players like Milano. Stopping the run continues to be a thorn in the side for this defense, when opposing teams are smart enough to stick with it. Also, I don't want to hear anyone complain if the Bills invest an early pick on a CB in the next draft. Aside from Tre, the other corners (the Johnsons and Wallace) are just not good enough. It's no wonder that slot WRs tend to be the ones that light us up each game. Now, I will say that I was NOT happy with the lack of imagination on the offensive play calling, especially once the Bills took the lead late in the 3rd quarter. They still could have been careful with the ball -- but at the same time mixed in some things that would have kept the Pats defense off balance rather than the run-run-run-punt crap. In the end, the game did not come down to the vanilla play-calling -- but, rather, the Patriots' playing better in the trenches. On a play-for-play basis, the Pats owned the line of scrimmage. That said, I never felt like the Bills were being dominated -- and they went toe--to-toe (now in 2 games) with the defending champs. Yes, I know, there is no such thing as a moral victory -- but this has to help a young team's level of confidence heading into the playoffs.

Dan Fouts talked about this in both Bills games that he called this season, including Sunday's game against the Ravens. While he pointed out that the main issue is with Josh not putting enough arc on the deep passes, he noted that it is impossible to do so with gusty winds (as was the case early in the game on Sunday when those 2-3 missed deep throws occurred). One of the great myths about deep passes is equating them with arm strength. This is not the case. In a way, a QB like Josh with top-3 level QB arm strength has to work to put greater touch on these deep passes. As an aside... Fouts is an interesting case in point. Despite all those passes, yards and TDs he accumulated in the Air Coryell system, he actually had a noodle for an arm (think Chad Pennington). What he had was nice touch, though (also, of course, mild San Diego climate, some fantastic receivers and a HoF pass-catching TE). When he had to play in blustery conditions (see the 1981 AFC Championship Game in Cinci), he didn't have the arm strength to get the job done.

The real test will be 2-3 years from now. Will Jackson go the way of other mobile QBs like RG3 and Kaep, wherein defenses figure out how to stop them -- or will he continue to develop and evolve as an upper echelon QB (a la Russell Wilson)?

This one will be tough, no doubt. The Ravens have a good coaching staff -- and will not foolishly cease to do what works well for them against us like the Cowboys did. So I do not expect to see Jackson dropping back to pass 30+ times. Jackson is careful with the ball -- and happy to throw it underneath or pick up 6-8 yard chunk plays with his legs. Hence, the usual bend-but-don't break defense that has worked so well for us may not be the best bet this week. The coaches are going to have to trust the DBs to play on an island and apply plenty of pressure up front without breaking containment on the outside. In his young career, (and unlike other running QBs like Cam) it seems that Jackson is already getting help from the officials, as the 49ers were repeatedly flagged yesterday for "roughing the passer" on very questionable calls. Our front 7 will have to be careful in these regards -- but also must stay aggressive and get a sound pop on Jackson whenever they can. Perhaps they can get a jump on the gamesmanship this week by choosing their words very carefully -- (e.g. avoid saying things like "If he is going to run treat him like a running back...") to prevent any sort of official's bias.

I don't know that I would necessarily call it the turning point of the game, but I get the importance of it: It showed just how desperate Garrett and the Cowboys were to win this game: a reminder of what happened when the Bills faced other talented teams with their backs to the wall (namely the Eagles and Browns) The Bills did not falter after allowing the 4th down conversion. Instead, the forced a punt afterwards and went on to score 26 unanswered points.

Only way we get a home game in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs is if we overtake the Pats for the division. Wild Card teams travel on the road.

Yea, even if his list had some other qualifier, like "most historically significant", it is hard not to have Warren Moon on that list -- and at the top. Remember, Moon had to play in Canada for several years because he was told by NFL executives/scouts that he did not have an "NFL arm". Yet, Moon had one of the finest arms -- and probably threw one of the prettiest passes -- in NFL history. You could argue that Moon -- more so than even Douq Williams -- played the greatest role in shattering stereotypes.

Don't take the bait. The Broncos run defense is terrible and the game plan for Sunday should be to pound the ball with an occasional pass from Josh.

I like the play calls (in regards to Josh's running) that were invoked against Miami this past week. That should be a decent blueprint for success. Of course, other defenses (including the Broncos this week) are significantly better than Miami's. It's doubtful, for example, that Josh will have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Miami. The running game (outside of Josh) needs to be better utilized -- beginning this week. (Note that the Broncos' pass defense is significantly better than their run defense.)

By this method of ranking, I guess it also follows that the Cleveland Browns should be ranked ahead of the Baltimore Ravens too, right?

I always thought these Power Rankings were silly. It was Bill Parcells who famously said, "You are what your record says you are". The Bills are the only team at 7-3, which neatly and without debate places them at #8.

Brown was a great pick-up and has nicely exceeded expectations. Beasley is fine as a slot WR. The issue is with McKenzie/Roberts/Foster/Williams. I am not sure why we are not seeing more of Williams, as he was pretty much catching all of his targets. Maybe he is not 100% healthy -- or perhaps he has not been doing what he needs to in practice. I am also perplexed by Foster, who played so well well in the back-half of the 2018 season. Maybe he too is not 100% healthy -- or, worse, maybe he has regressed to his pre-cut ways from last season. I am not sure that both Roberts and McKenzie both need to be on this roster. I know Roberts is the return-man and McKenzie is nice on the gadget plays -- but neither is an effective/reliable receiver. We really need someone to play outside opposite Brown, who is big/physical and has the speed to get open. One thing that Miami did well yesterday was run some drag routes with Parker that helped them to negate his mismatch against T. White (who otherwise pretty much held Parker in check). if we could add that element to this offense (with a large-bodied receiver capable of running such a route), I think it would really open things up.