2003Contenders

The extra 4th and 5th round picks give them plenty of flexibility. Right now they have: Round 1 - i pick (9) Round 2 - 1 pick (41) Round 3 - 1 pick (75) Round 4 - 2 picks (113, 132) Round 5 - 2 picks (148, 159) Round 6 - 1 pick (182) Round 7 - 2 picks (227, 230) They could package the 2nd and 3rd rounder to move back up into the 1st round if someone falls into the 20's. Across various regimes they have moved around in the 2nd round a lot. So, if they don't move into the 1st, they could use one of their 4's to move up in the 2nd. Also, they could use the 3rd an done of the extra 4's to pick up an additional 2. For a team that is draft-pick-needy, they could use volume like a 4 and both 5's to move up/down in the 2nd or 3rd round as well. And so on... So many options. I get JW's point about the Bills being more prone to move up than down this year.

The main reason I do not see this mock happening with Williams falling all the way to 9 is because if he somehow slides out of the top 4-5, I would expect some team to trade up for him (possibly the Bills). But who knows? Stranger things have happened.

Actually, if a trade like this happened where Beane trades down and acquires multiple 3's, I would think that it would be a precursor to other moves that would allow the Bills to either move back up for an additional 1st round pick or move up for multiple 2nds. Remember, they have multiple mid-to-late round picks already. I would think that the team at this stage would be more inclined to package these picks to draft potential impact/starting players rather than add to depth/camp fodder via multiple late picks.

I have not seen anything about it here, and he is still listed on the Bills' official site roster. However, his Wikipedia page lists his as a free agent as does the Bills' depth chart on Ourlads. Hmmm.

While the test may not be indicative of future success, it does provide one useful measuring stick to help evaluate a player's ability to learn and process information. The Fitz score has been a running joke for years -- but think about this, for a minute. For all of his short-comings, Fitz has been around the league for a long time. 2019 will be his 15th year in the league. He has had to learn multiple offenses -- often with no off-season to do so. His headiness has allowed him to hang around the NFL for many more seasons than his underwhelming physical traits would otherwise merit. Josh's relatively high score suggests that he should be able to learn and apply concepts. He has all of the physical tools that any QB would ever want. Aside from pure luck (staying injury-free, supporting cast, etc.), the key to success will be his motivation and the quality of those who are guiding/coaching him. Given how much improvement we saw pre and post injury for him last year, the arrow is pointing in the right direction.

Dillard has been a late riser on draft boards. Many scouts say that he may be the best pure LT in the draft -- whereas Taylor projects more to RT in the NFL and Williams to OG (or possibly RT). I would not be surprised to see Dillard go in the top 10.

I think this is probably how it went down as well. So all of the reporters were essentially correct. Rappaport said that the Steelers and Bills had agreed on a trade in principle. However, both Vic and JW said that a trade was very unlikely. Beane wisely decided that the risk was to great to pay a player who has made it abundantly clear that he would be more than willing to sit out a huge new guaranteed contract.

He had some productive years as a pass-catcher with Andrew Luck in Indy (521 yards in 2012; 8 TDs in 2014). As recently as 2016 he scored 6 TDs.

IIRC Payton actually interviewed for the HC job back in 2000/2001. Remember that Donahoe was the only GM to wait until after the Super Bowl to interview various assistants. Marvin Lewis was the big name, and everyone assumed that it was Lewis's job given the Pittsburgh ties to Donahoe and the great season the Ravens had on defense. But Donahoe also interviewed Jon Fox and I believe Sean Payton, who were the Giants' coordinators at the time. Of course, we all know that Gregg got the job.

Maybe the Rams' coaches were just doing what many coaches (including every Bills coach in this millennium) have done against Bill Bellichcik? That is, over-think and as a result tie their own hands. You know, the classic "Bill will expect us to run the ball with Todd, so let's do something else he will never expect..."

Both BB and Wade were great. Both of them, over 65, out-classed the whipper-snapper McVey (who admitted that he was out-coached). Maybe all these teams deciding to go the youth route when it comes to coaching should reconsider... ?

If the Bills don't address the TE position in the FA, I would rather that they take one in the first few rounds (Hockenson?) rather than draft 2 WRs in the 2nd round.

Some random thoughts.... 1. Shanahan was/is a douche. Recall that he was fired as OC for the Broncos because he was doing things behind Dan Reeves' back and subverting the organization. Then he went to Oakland and crapped the bed as head coach -- Al Davis fired him after one season. 2. Ralph fired Jauron mid-season back in 2009 -- and the organization tried to get a head start on head coach interviews. Ralph had always been a miser when it came to head coaches, but seemed to be willing to spend top $ on a head coach after the Jauron firing. The Bills reportedly offered Shanahan $10 M per year, but he wound up going to Washington instead for roughly the same money. The belief at the time was that he was using the Bills to drive up his contract demands with other teams. I am not sure that Graham's quote about his only reason for not signing with the Bills was because his wife did not want to live in Buffalo. I suspect that Schneider would have matched any offer that Shanhan would have received from the Bills. Recall that Shanhan even got to hand-pick his own GM in Washington, and that turned out to be Bruce Allen. 3. Remember also that when the Bills lost out on the Shanahan sweepstakes, they next turned their attention toward Bill Cowher, and they really did go full court press on him. Cowher declined but strongly recommended Chan Gailey. The rest is history...

This. Add also the fact that Peterman's crapping the bed in that game made it abundantly clear that he was not going to be some kind of 5th-round "diamond in the rough", and helped fortify the decision to do whatever was necessary to draft a QB in 2018. Yes, the front office allowed Peterman to hang around too long -- and expecting him to be the starting QB in the opener against the Ravens was a bad choice. But credit McD with making that quick hook and benching Peterman at half time. The coaches thought so little of Peterman that even when Josh Allen got hurt a few games later, they went with a newly signed D. Anderson and then a newly signed M. Barkley (when Anderson got hurt) over Peterman. Once two of the other 3 QBs were healthy (Allen and Barkley), Peterman was immediately released. Yes, being in such a lousy QB situation in the first half of the season does show poor planning on the part of the FO. Still, let's not forget that they had acquired AJ McCarron whom they thought was going to be a solid bridge QB until Josh Allen was ready. As bad as Peterman was, he did out-play McCarron in the preseason. I think that is a bigger indictment of how poor McCarron was rather than the front office having misguided feelings about Peterman. Beane admitted as much when he said that he had made a mistake in evaluating McCarron. As such, he deserves credit for cutting bait and getting a pick from the Raiders in exchange for for him.

It's not a good look for the QB, who is supposed to be the face of your franchise. Given the up-arrow for the Browns heading into 2019, expectations will be high. It won't matter to the bean counters and the fan base as long as the Browns win, but this sort of immature attitude will grow old fast if the Browns struggle.

As I posted in one of the other Allen vs other rookie QB threads, the comparison between Allen and Jackson is not really even close. Aside from some designed running plays, the Ravens did their best to hide Lamar Jackson, since naming him the starter. Meanwhile, in Buffalo during that same stretch, Josh Allen WAS the team's offense. In comparing apples-to-apples, let's look at weeks 12-17 (Jackson got his first start in week 11, and Allen returned from injury in Week 12). Aside from the Allen's first game back (against Jacksonville), where he attempted only 19 passes for 160 yards, Allen attempted at least 26 passes in every game and passed for at least 200 yards in each of them. He tossed 8 TD passes in those 6 games combined. Meanwhile, Jackson did not attempt as many as 26 passes in a single game. He has passed for 200 yards only once -- and that was a mere 204 yards. Over that 6-game span, Josh passed for 1242 yards and 8 TD passes, whereas Jackson threw for just 964 yards and 5 TD passes. Rushing, which is Jackson's greatest advertised asset, you ask? Well, Allen out-gained Jackson 476-441 and scored 5 rushing TDs to Jackson's 4 during that period. The amazing thing is that Allen's rushing numbers came on just 54 attempts, compared to Jackson's 92. Yes, that is correct. Josh Allen was a more prolific runner than Jackson was, even though he had 38 fewer rush attempts than Jackson had in weeks 12-17. Also, looking at W's and L's, as good as the Bills' D was, it was not in the same stratosphere as Baltimore's. If Allen had Baltimore's defense backing him up, he likely picks up a couple more W's (the loss to Miami and Jets both come to mind). Not taking anything away from Jackson because he played largely mistake-free (until the Chargers dismantled him to be a QB in the playoffs) -- and his team made it to the playoffs. He tossed just 2 INTs during that time frame, compared to Josh's 7. Still, all things being equal and factoring in what was asked of each of these QBs, it is asinine to rank Lamar Jackson ahead of Josh Allen in any format whatsoever.

Funny how an undisputed elite QB like Andrew Luck can struggle so badly when the protection breaks down.

Bottom line: aside from some designed running plays, the Ravens have done their best to hide Lamar Jackson, since naming him the starter. Meanwhile, in Buffalo during that same stretch, Josh Allen WAS the team's offense. In comparing apples-to-apples, let's look at weeks 12-17 (Jackson got his first start in week 11, and Allen returned from injury in Week 12). Aside from the Allen's first game back (against Jacksonville), where he attempted only 19 passes for 160 yards, Allen attempted at least 26 passes in every game and passed for at least 200 yards in each of them. He tossed 8 TD passes in those 6 games combined. Meanwhile, Jackson did not attempt as many as 26 passes in a single game. He has passed for 200 yards only once -- and that was a mere 204 yards. Over that 6-game span, Josh passed for 1242 yards and 8 TD passes, whereas Jackson threw for just 964 yards and 5 TD passes. Rushing, which is Jackson's greatest advertised asset, you ask? Well, Allen out-gained Jackson 476-441 and scored 5 rushing TDs to Jackson's 4. The amazing thing is that Allen's rushing numbers came on just 54 attempts, compared to Jackson's 92. Yes, that is correct. Josh Allen was a far more prolific runner than Jackson was, even though he had 38 fewer rush attempts than Jackson had in weeks 12-17. Not taking anything away from Jackson because he has been mostly mistake-free -- and his team is in the playoffs. He tossed just 2 INTs during that time frame, compared to Josh's 7. Still, all things being equal and factoring in what was asked of each of these QBs, it is asinine to rank Lamar Jackson ahead of Josh Allen in any format whatsoever.

And this doesn't even count H. Phillips, whom I think (hope) will improve in his 2nd season.

There could have been any number or motives here. And, yes, it is certainly possible that the Bills were the team that leaked the tweets. Yes, they supposedly were the only team to grill Josh about these tweets after they came out, but that could have been a mirage in and of itself to alleviate (and disguise the leak) from Josh and his agent. Let's remember a few things: 1. The Bills were on the Josh Allen bang wagon for some time. I firmly believe that he is the QB they targeted all along, and would have taken him #1 overall if they were in the position to do so. 2. When the Jets moved up to 3, the Bills were potentially in the position to lose out on 3 (possibly even all 4) of the top-rated QBs in the draft. 3. Aside from the Browns and Jets who ultimately took QBs, there was a legitimate concern that both the Giants (picking at 2) as well as the Broncos (picking at 5) were in the QB market. The Bills had tried to work out a deal with both the Giants and Browns to move up from 7 but the price to do so was prohibitive for the Bills (at least both 2018 first rounders in addition to 2019 first round pick). The Bills had a framework deal in place with the Broncos that would have included both first round picks (plus more) to move up to 5; however, when the Browns surprised by taking the CB at #4 and left the DE on the board at #5, the Broncos reneged. The Colts were dead-set on the OG, so the Bills wound up finally working the deal with the Bucs. The price of two 2nd rounders seemed like a steep price at the time for moving up 5 spots, but we now know that both Miami and Arizona were also trying to move up for Allen as well. Hence, there was ample reason for the Bills to have leaked the tweets in hopes of scaring the Browns (and there were some members of their front office who preferred Allen to Mayfield), Giants (who were looking for a QB to back-fill Eli but ultimately decided that Barkely was too good to pass up), the Jets (who seemed willing to take any of the top 3 QBs given the move they made), and Broncos (who may have been looking QB after failing to sign Cousins and settling for journeyman Keenum in the off-season). There is also precedent in prior administrations for this sort of pre-draft shenanigans in Buffalo. Remember when Buddy and his scouts anonymously spread the word that Cordy Glenn was only an interior lineman at the NFL level and would not be able to play LT? Buddy even joked about leaking this misinformation once the draft was over. I know it seems cynical -- and I am not saying that the Bills were necessarily the team that did this as other teams (obviously, the Dolphins and Cardinals and possibly others like the Ravens, Pats or Steelers) had similar motives -- but this is part of business in the NFL. All is fair in love and war, after all. If the Bills really were behind the leaks, they can make it up to Josh by boosting his offensive line and acquiring at least one more quality WR (and TE) in the off-season. LOL

Very similar to the numbers that Robert Foster put up (see the other thread about Foster's production since re-signing in mid-season) -- with Foster averaging over 20 yards per reception. Difference is Foster was an undrafted free agent.

The other stat that jumps out to me is the 71% target conversion rate. That is ridiculously good, especially considering that so many of his targets were downfield ones. It also says a great deal about Josh Allen's perceived inaccuracy. If we can find one more quality receiver (in addition to Foster and Zay) who is ideally a large target and can actually run precise routes and make contested catches, I think we are in business.

Although the decision (assuming this is true) to let Crossman go was a bigger no-brainer, Castillo and McD go back a long way. Undoubtedly the decision for McD to let him go came with quite a bit of emotion, and McD wanted to do right by him by letting him know right away, in hopes that Castillo would have the best chance to land on his feet elsewhere.

Lawson may not be elite, but he is a good DE with the arrow pointing in the right direction. Remember, as a rookie he missed all of training camp and most of the regular season with the shoulder surgery. In year 2, he had to learn a whole new defense under McD. By many accounts, he was a bubble player heading into 2018 -- and accepted the coaches' challenge to refine in certain areas. Shaq is probably never going to be a 10+ sack guy, but that is not the role he plays on this team. Instead, he has shown himself to be solid in run defense and pass overage and serves as a nice complement to the edge rushers. He's also come up with some huge plays at opportune times this season. Good players like this are not in over-abundance in the NFL, and I suspect that he has emerged as a favorite with the coaches due to his work ethic and selfless play. He's also the type of guy that could blossom into a team leader and an asset in the locker room (if he isn't already). Given that the goal is to draft, nurture and retain quality players, I would prefer to lock Shaq up to a long-term deal (or exercise the 5-year option), rather than needlessly create another spot-to-fill should we lose his services.

Despite the defense finishing highly in the rankings this season, anyone who watched the games knows that the D had trouble shutting down the run when opposing teams were smart enough to stay with it (See: 2nd Pats game). Also, the D had a habit of giving up late-game TDs when trying to cling to leads (See the first Miami game and the second Jets game). Zo is getting older, and Kyle is now retired. Bottom line: despite obvious needs on the offensive side of the ball, the Bills could certainly stand to shore up the defense as well.