2003Contenders

Did anyone else catch the odd mistake he made when talking about his first game as a pro. Leaf said he vividly remembered playing against Steve Young and the 49ers. Wrong! That first game came in San Diego against our very own Buffalo Bills. It was also Rob Johnson's first game as a Bill and proved to be a harbinger of things to come, as RJ was knocked out of the game. Flutie (also in his first action as a Bill) came in off the bench and ALMOST pulled the game out. That was 20 years ago, of course, and maybe Leaf truly did "mis-remember". However, the Bills also played the NFC West that season (their first victory of the season, in fact, came in an upset victory over the Niners). So Leaf (and the rest of the AFC West) would not have played against the NFC West in 1998, which means that Leaf didn't even play the 49ers AT ALL in his rookie season. Maybe he played against Young and the 49ers in the preseason that year, which was not the implication I got. Of maybe he is just full of bull.

I wonder if the mom-agent weirdness and his refusal to whiteboard with teams will cause him to fall to the 2nd round.

Jim Drunkenmiller. Dude had a cannon but no touch. Constantly was breaking WRs fingers, etc. The guy was a tool, thought all of that was funny. Easy to see why he never panned out.

Honestly, if the top 4 QBs all go in the top 5 like that (which certainly is a possibility), then the good news is that the Bills will be taking a top 8 overall pick at a non-QB position at 12 (depending on what they think of Jackson and Rudolph). They could even potentially trade up a couple of spots if they need to get a top 5 guy (Chubb, Nelson, Smith, for example), at one of those spots without giving up more than a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I laugh at all of the fans that are DEMANDING that the Bills trade up for one of those top 4 QBs. There are multiple factors in the equation. Can the Bills find a team willing to trade down? And if so, what will it cost? Let's remember that the team has a number of other big needs right now. MLB, WR, OL (both interior and exterior), DL (both interior and exterior) besides depth elsewhere. If there is a trade to be made for one of these top 4 QBs (or, better yet, should one of them fall) then that is great. However, if the draft goes as Kiper has it going, it is hard to complain about using the picks we have to address other areas. I don't doubt that, say, Rosen/Mayfield > McCarron. However, I do not think that the team as a whole will look better with Rosen/McCarron vs McCarron + improvements at WR, MLB and OL/DL. Or, for that matter, Rosen/McCarron vs Jackson/Rudolph + improvements at WR, MLB and OL/DL. And if they do give up multiple high picks to trade up they had BETTER be right or lucky (from a health perspective).

I don't know necessarily about the weakest arm (but probably weaker than the top 4 guys), but Rudolph's hands did measure in at just 9". Gil Brandt talked about this on NFL Sirius radio a few days ago when asked why a QB as prolific in college as Rudolph (who Brandt BELIEVES will be a starter at the NFL level) is not as highly sought after as the top 4 guys. He said the biggest issue was his hand-size and that only one QB in the last 15 years had been drafted early in the first round with such small hands. That QB was Jared Goff. Brandt also pointed out that Goff went to a warm weather team in LA, whereas the QB-needed teams picking at the top this year (including Buffalo, given they have the ammunition to move up) are all cold weather teams (Cleveland, Jersey, Denver, Buffalo) where having larger hands to handle the ball is a premium. He went on to suggest that Rudolph otherwise checks off everything on the list, but the smallish hands and possibly lower ceiling than some of the higher-rated QBs could make him fall to the 2nd round. Then after discussing all of this, he laughed and pointed out that Mayfield too had small hands -- just 1/4" bigger than Rudolph's. Meanwhile, Allen has huge hands (well over 10") .

I think they guy they covet REALLY is Allen. The problem is that he is likely the guy that the Browns like too.

Well, with all of the newly acquired picks that they have between the Bills and Jets, they could very easily move back up a couple of spots if there was a guy they really wanted that they did not expect to still be on the board at 12. They know also that the Bills would be taking a QB at 6, a position that the Colts would not be targeting there. So they could move back up to, say, 9 or 10 if they wanted to without having to give up more than one of the 2nd rounders they got from the Jets and still get a top 5-6 guy at a non-QB position. Last week Peter king said that the Colts were making it no secret that they are looking to move down again and acquire more picks. He suggested that the Bills #53 and #96 might be enough to get it done. But with this inflated trade market, who knows?

My biggest fear about Rosen (in addition to his durability) is that I worry that he may not be the type that eats-breaths-and-sleeps football. This is a guy who may not be in the game for the long haul. Not saying that this is a verdict, but I hope that if the Bills really do like him and intend to draft him they confirm that he has the burning desire to be around the game for a decade or more.

In addition to trying to toy with the Giants and potentially extort a pick or two from them, it is certainly possible that the Browns could also be playing games with the players' agents. The Browns did the same thing back in 1999, when Tim Couch was the apple of their eye. They suggested right up until draft day that Akili Smith was also in play at #1 overall. The Browns never had any serious interest in Smith but just wanted to present the threat of looking elsewhere for the #1 overall pick as part of a negotiation tactic with Couch's people. I know the advent of the Rookie cap and slotting helps to ease some of the negotiating process, but things like signing bonuses and guaranteed money are still in play. Remember that the Browns met with Darnold's family and agent last week. That was very highly publicized. We dd not hear nearly as much about who all they met with in Wyoming on Friday.

For those still angry with McD for tarting Peterman in that Charger game... Part of the decision-making there I still believe was to get a better idea of what the team had in Peterman. To see if he could potentially be an upgrade over Tyrod and possibly even the future of the franchise. The fact that he crapped the bed easily answered those questions. Imagine if he had not started that game and all we had to go by was preseason and occasional mop-up duty. There would probably some folks still wondering seriously whether he is "the answer". I don't think even his biggest supporters around here are calling for that. I am not saying the book is out on him and that he can;t improve, but the odds of him being more than a career backup do not look good at this point.

Well, with all the ammunition they already have (plus whatever the Bills give them in the trade-up), the Browns could still move back into the top 10 if they so desire.

This bit about Beane liking Allen going into 2017 is interesting -- and could be the basis for the connection between Allen and the Bills. Remember that Allen was coming off a strong 2016 campaign. However, his numbers plummeted (for a variety of reasons) in 2017. It is quite possible that Beane and the scouts do not like Allen nearly as much now as they did in the fall.

I am waiting for fans to freak out when one of the top 4 slides (Allen?) and is eventually taken AFTER a QB who is not projected to be among the top 4 (Jackson?)

Reasonable thoughts, I think. I certainly prefer the top 4 guys and hope the Bills are able to land one of them, but assuming that a trade up is not feasible... The thing I like about Rudolph is that he throws the ball with anticipation really well. He has an average NFL arm but appears to have good instincts and is a natural QB (as opposed to someone like EJ who had all the physical talent you could ever want but never seemed comfortable playing QB). The hyperbole in the thread comparing Rudolph to Tom Brady is silly, but in a way I do get the comparison from a physical stand-point. Coming into the league Brady had mediocre arm strength and was a poor athlete. However, his accuracy, competitive fire, and strive for perfection is what has made him what he is. A guy like Rudolph can succeed in the NFL if he truly eats, breathes and sleeps football. Rudolph figures to be what the Bills were expecting (hoping) Peterman's upside could be. As you mentioned, Cousins likely represents that upside. I keep going back and forth about Jackson. I like that he is a special athlete and played in Petrino's NFL offense at Louisville. He is a better passer than some observers give him credit for being. I am not overly worried that he likes to run with the ball, given his natural speed an elusiveness. However, I am worried that he has a lanky frame. I suppose proper conditioning could enable him to physically get bigger -- especially his legs. Still, there is a good chance that he could suffer the same fate as RG3, given the similar physique and reckless running style.

The "value" of picks in the first round get exponentially smaller the later you go in the round. That's why it costs more to move up, say, from 6 to 3 than it does to move up, say, 27 to 10. Then there is the notion of supply and demand. For a variety of reasons there was significantly less hype surrounding the QBs than there has been this year.

He's always been like that, which is why he tends to wear out his welcome wherever he goes, despite the fact that he has done a great job at each landing spot. We all know the real reason he was forced out of Buffalo...

That "contemporary for a rival team" gave up an arm and a leg to move up 3 spots. It is quite possible that the Colts were not willing to trade back as far as 12, no matter what the Bills offered. BTW, the Jets were always in a position to pick ahead of the Bills, so at least this trade to 3 was not by another team that was not originally in the position to draft ahead of Buffalo. The scenario before today -- hoping that the desired QB gets past the Jets -- remains. It just now means that the Bills have a more narrow path to get that done. And if picks 1 and 2 are not up for sale at any price, it is hard to criticize the Bills for not making a move to get ahead of them. For all we know the Jets and Bills may have entirely difference QBs in their sites.

I think also that Denver is in must-win-now mode, which likely means that they will be taking a guy they believe is ready to start right away. That is probably not a QB.

I believe without a doubt that the Bills already have their QB list ready to go. However, I believe that Beane is being 100% honest when he says that he still does not know what the team will do. Let's take this hypothetical... For the sake of argument let's say that the Bills have Darold and Rosen ranked 1 and 2, then a bit of a gap between QBs 3 and 4 (say, Mayfield and Allen). Let's also say that they have a mid-first round grade on Jackson and a borderline first/second round grade on Rudolph. 1. Option one: Prior to the draft... Trade whatever is necessary to move into the top 3 to draft one of those top 2 ranked QBs in this draft class. This will take both first round picks PLUS one or more additional high picks this year and/or 2019. 2. Option two: On draft day... Be patient and see what happens with the first few picks. If the top 2 QBs are gone by pick 3, then make a trade (which probably involves both first round picks) to move up to get the 3rd or 4th QB. 3. Option three:On draft day... Be patient and let the draft come to you. If the 3rd or 4th QB is still on the board after the Jets pick, then to be sure that no other team swipes them before 12, trade up slightly with, say, Tampa Bay or San Francisco. This likely will not cost more than a 2nd round or possibly just the #65 pick acquired for Tyrod. 4. Option four: Stay put at 12 and draft the top-rated QB on the board, whether one of the top 4 QBs slips or the 5th rated QB (in our hypothetical, Jackson) 5. Option five: Stay put at 12 and draft the BPA -- even if it is not a QB. After all, the team has other needs to address -- and if the top 4 QBs are gone by 11, that means a chance to get a top 8 non-QB player. If they do not take a QB, reevaluate at 21 to see what QB options there are. SO plenty of scenarios to consider -- and trading as we know is dependent upon finding a willing partner. The way Beane wheels and deals I would not rule out him taking BPA (non-QB) at 12 -- and then maybe trading up (or down) at 21 to acquire a QB. If we take him at his word, the Bills will NOT be reaching for a QB. I can't wait to see what happens!

While many teams will rightfully worry about his less-than-desirable completion percentage (among other things) and will downgrade him a not even being first-round worthy at all, there will be other teams that gush over his physical traits who believe that they have the coaching staff in place to mold and groom him into being an elite QB. It just takes one team in this latter camp to potentially over-draft Allen. That is why he will be a top 10 -- and probably a top 5 -- pick.

If that really is the plan -- to trade up for a rookie and go into the season with just the rookie and Peterman at QB... Well, the 2019 first round draft pick had better NOT be part of the capital used to move up in the trade. That could wind up being a top 5 pick next year.

Frank Reich to Kerry Collins. V. Testeverde to Chad Pennington

Interesting that he does not list the Bucs as having interest in Gaines as we have all heard...

And what did the Bears do about a month after signing Glennon? They traded up to #2 to draft the guy they believed to be the top QB in the draft. If the Bills did sign McCarron or Bridgewater to such a contract, I would STILL want them to do whatever they can to draft who they believe is the best bet at QB in this draft class.

Indeed. Besides, Parcells never ate his own dog food. The highest profile QB he ever drafted as a coach or GM was Bledsoe, who did NOT meet the criteria. Nor did Jeff Hostetler, whom the Giants drafted in 1984 when Parcells was head coach (Phil Simms was already on the Giants' roster when Parcells took over as head coach). The Jets never drafted a QB of note during Parcells' time there, and Chad Pennington was drafted the year AFTER Parcells left. In Dallas, Romo was an after-thought who was not even drafted in 2003, signing with the Cowboys as a rookie UDFA. IIRC, Chad Henne was the last QB that Parcells played a role in drafting. He too failed to fulfill the criteria.