2003Contenders

Well, with all of the newly acquired picks that they have between the Bills and Jets, they could very easily move back up a couple of spots if there was a guy they really wanted that they did not expect to still be on the board at 12. They know also that the Bills would be taking a QB at 6, a position that the Colts would not be targeting there. So they could move back up to, say, 9 or 10 if they wanted to without having to give up more than one of the 2nd rounders they got from the Jets and still get a top 5-6 guy at a non-QB position. Last week Peter king said that the Colts were making it no secret that they are looking to move down again and acquire more picks. He suggested that the Bills #53 and #96 might be enough to get it done. But with this inflated trade market, who knows?

My biggest fear about Rosen (in addition to his durability) is that I worry that he may not be the type that eats-breaths-and-sleeps football. This is a guy who may not be in the game for the long haul. Not saying that this is a verdict, but I hope that if the Bills really do like him and intend to draft him they confirm that he has the burning desire to be around the game for a decade or more.

In addition to trying to toy with the Giants and potentially extort a pick or two from them, it is certainly possible that the Browns could also be playing games with the players' agents. The Browns did the same thing back in 1999, when Tim Couch was the apple of their eye. They suggested right up until draft day that Akili Smith was also in play at #1 overall. The Browns never had any serious interest in Smith but just wanted to present the threat of looking elsewhere for the #1 overall pick as part of a negotiation tactic with Couch's people. I know the advent of the Rookie cap and slotting helps to ease some of the negotiating process, but things like signing bonuses and guaranteed money are still in play. Remember that the Browns met with Darnold's family and agent last week. That was very highly publicized. We dd not hear nearly as much about who all they met with in Wyoming on Friday.

For those still angry with McD for tarting Peterman in that Charger game... Part of the decision-making there I still believe was to get a better idea of what the team had in Peterman. To see if he could potentially be an upgrade over Tyrod and possibly even the future of the franchise. The fact that he crapped the bed easily answered those questions. Imagine if he had not started that game and all we had to go by was preseason and occasional mop-up duty. There would probably some folks still wondering seriously whether he is "the answer". I don't think even his biggest supporters around here are calling for that. I am not saying the book is out on him and that he can;t improve, but the odds of him being more than a career backup do not look good at this point.

Well, with all the ammunition they already have (plus whatever the Bills give them in the trade-up), the Browns could still move back into the top 10 if they so desire.

This bit about Beane liking Allen going into 2017 is interesting -- and could be the basis for the connection between Allen and the Bills. Remember that Allen was coming off a strong 2016 campaign. However, his numbers plummeted (for a variety of reasons) in 2017. It is quite possible that Beane and the scouts do not like Allen nearly as much now as they did in the fall.

I am waiting for fans to freak out when one of the top 4 slides (Allen?) and is eventually taken AFTER a QB who is not projected to be among the top 4 (Jackson?)

Reasonable thoughts, I think. I certainly prefer the top 4 guys and hope the Bills are able to land one of them, but assuming that a trade up is not feasible... The thing I like about Rudolph is that he throws the ball with anticipation really well. He has an average NFL arm but appears to have good instincts and is a natural QB (as opposed to someone like EJ who had all the physical talent you could ever want but never seemed comfortable playing QB). The hyperbole in the thread comparing Rudolph to Tom Brady is silly, but in a way I do get the comparison from a physical stand-point. Coming into the league Brady had mediocre arm strength and was a poor athlete. However, his accuracy, competitive fire, and strive for perfection is what has made him what he is. A guy like Rudolph can succeed in the NFL if he truly eats, breathes and sleeps football. Rudolph figures to be what the Bills were expecting (hoping) Peterman's upside could be. As you mentioned, Cousins likely represents that upside. I keep going back and forth about Jackson. I like that he is a special athlete and played in Petrino's NFL offense at Louisville. He is a better passer than some observers give him credit for being. I am not overly worried that he likes to run with the ball, given his natural speed an elusiveness. However, I am worried that he has a lanky frame. I suppose proper conditioning could enable him to physically get bigger -- especially his legs. Still, there is a good chance that he could suffer the same fate as RG3, given the similar physique and reckless running style.

The "value" of picks in the first round get exponentially smaller the later you go in the round. That's why it costs more to move up, say, from 6 to 3 than it does to move up, say, 27 to 10. Then there is the notion of supply and demand. For a variety of reasons there was significantly less hype surrounding the QBs than there has been this year.

He's always been like that, which is why he tends to wear out his welcome wherever he goes, despite the fact that he has done a great job at each landing spot. We all know the real reason he was forced out of Buffalo...

That "contemporary for a rival team" gave up an arm and a leg to move up 3 spots. It is quite possible that the Colts were not willing to trade back as far as 12, no matter what the Bills offered. BTW, the Jets were always in a position to pick ahead of the Bills, so at least this trade to 3 was not by another team that was not originally in the position to draft ahead of Buffalo. The scenario before today -- hoping that the desired QB gets past the Jets -- remains. It just now means that the Bills have a more narrow path to get that done. And if picks 1 and 2 are not up for sale at any price, it is hard to criticize the Bills for not making a move to get ahead of them. For all we know the Jets and Bills may have entirely difference QBs in their sites.

I think also that Denver is in must-win-now mode, which likely means that they will be taking a guy they believe is ready to start right away. That is probably not a QB.

I believe without a doubt that the Bills already have their QB list ready to go. However, I believe that Beane is being 100% honest when he says that he still does not know what the team will do. Let's take this hypothetical... For the sake of argument let's say that the Bills have Darold and Rosen ranked 1 and 2, then a bit of a gap between QBs 3 and 4 (say, Mayfield and Allen). Let's also say that they have a mid-first round grade on Jackson and a borderline first/second round grade on Rudolph. 1. Option one: Prior to the draft... Trade whatever is necessary to move into the top 3 to draft one of those top 2 ranked QBs in this draft class. This will take both first round picks PLUS one or more additional high picks this year and/or 2019. 2. Option two: On draft day... Be patient and see what happens with the first few picks. If the top 2 QBs are gone by pick 3, then make a trade (which probably involves both first round picks) to move up to get the 3rd or 4th QB. 3. Option three:On draft day... Be patient and let the draft come to you. If the 3rd or 4th QB is still on the board after the Jets pick, then to be sure that no other team swipes them before 12, trade up slightly with, say, Tampa Bay or San Francisco. This likely will not cost more than a 2nd round or possibly just the #65 pick acquired for Tyrod. 4. Option four: Stay put at 12 and draft the top-rated QB on the board, whether one of the top 4 QBs slips or the 5th rated QB (in our hypothetical, Jackson) 5. Option five: Stay put at 12 and draft the BPA -- even if it is not a QB. After all, the team has other needs to address -- and if the top 4 QBs are gone by 11, that means a chance to get a top 8 non-QB player. If they do not take a QB, reevaluate at 21 to see what QB options there are. SO plenty of scenarios to consider -- and trading as we know is dependent upon finding a willing partner. The way Beane wheels and deals I would not rule out him taking BPA (non-QB) at 12 -- and then maybe trading up (or down) at 21 to acquire a QB. If we take him at his word, the Bills will NOT be reaching for a QB. I can't wait to see what happens!

While many teams will rightfully worry about his less-than-desirable completion percentage (among other things) and will downgrade him a not even being first-round worthy at all, there will be other teams that gush over his physical traits who believe that they have the coaching staff in place to mold and groom him into being an elite QB. It just takes one team in this latter camp to potentially over-draft Allen. That is why he will be a top 10 -- and probably a top 5 -- pick.

If that really is the plan -- to trade up for a rookie and go into the season with just the rookie and Peterman at QB... Well, the 2019 first round draft pick had better NOT be part of the capital used to move up in the trade. That could wind up being a top 5 pick next year.

Frank Reich to Kerry Collins. V. Testeverde to Chad Pennington

Interesting that he does not list the Bucs as having interest in Gaines as we have all heard...

And what did the Bears do about a month after signing Glennon? They traded up to #2 to draft the guy they believed to be the top QB in the draft. If the Bills did sign McCarron or Bridgewater to such a contract, I would STILL want them to do whatever they can to draft who they believe is the best bet at QB in this draft class.

Indeed. Besides, Parcells never ate his own dog food. The highest profile QB he ever drafted as a coach or GM was Bledsoe, who did NOT meet the criteria. Nor did Jeff Hostetler, whom the Giants drafted in 1984 when Parcells was head coach (Phil Simms was already on the Giants' roster when Parcells took over as head coach). The Jets never drafted a QB of note during Parcells' time there, and Chad Pennington was drafted the year AFTER Parcells left. In Dallas, Romo was an after-thought who was not even drafted in 2003, signing with the Cowboys as a rookie UDFA. IIRC, Chad Henne was the last QB that Parcells played a role in drafting. He too failed to fulfill the criteria.

Jackson appears to be one of the most polarizing players in this draft class. I truly believe that there are some teams that do not even see him as a QB and are serious about exploring a projection to WR. Those teams likely would not draft him on day one and probably not day 2. Meanwhile, other teams really do believe that he is one of the top QBs in this draft. As we know, it only takes one team to fall in love with a player -- which is why I think he goes in the first round, possibly before the Bills select at #21. I expect that Petrino will be fielding plenty of questions from NFL scouts/GMs/coaches about whether or not Jackson has the goods to be an NFL QB.

Bingo! Either he is healthy -- which means that it would be foolish to trade him, especially now that his stock is low. Or, he is NOT healthy, in which case it would be very difficult to trade him at all, given his large contract.

If the QBs fall as he has them, it won't even take both first round picks to move up for Rosen. A 1st and a 2nd should get it done.

Word at the time was that if the Bills had not made the trade up for Sammy, they would have taken Ebron at 9. So they definitely liked him back in 2014. Of course, he has done little in the league since then -- and it was the now departed Whaley who was running the draft room for the Bills back then.

Two thoughts come to mind... I remember looking closely at the transcripts from Beane's interviews at the combine this past week. One comment he made that I found very interesting was that there were "6 -- maybe even 7" QBs that could go in the first round this year. Of course, he did not say who they were. But I wonder if the Bills have a higher grade on, say, Mike White and would be willing to take him with one of those 1st round picks. Still, I would hope that he would be available in the 2nd round. Otherwise, I have to look at it this way: if the top 20 picks really are comprised of 6 QBs, then that must mean that only 14 other players at non-QB positions were drafted. That gives the Bills the opportunity to take the 15th and 16th best non-QB prospects in the draft. It would not be the end of the world to address other needs (LB, DT, DL, WR, OL...) with those two picks.

I listened to his interview with Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller on XM this evening. Here is what I took away from it: 1. He had multiple surgeries this off-season. 2. He really liked his time in Buffalo. 3. He LOVES McD. 4. Credits the Bills' medical folks with getting him the proper diagnosis on his ankle/knee. 5. He is a newlywed, and his wife is a professional soccer player in DC. They are expecting a baby soon. 6. Realizes that he is hitting free agency at an inopportune time given the recent injuries. 7. Hopes teams will look beyond the recent injuries (also played with a bum ankle in 2016) and work him out. It sounded to me like his first choice would be to play close to DC given his wife's situation. But if he does not return to play for the Bills, it sounds more like it is the Bills who may not be interested.