2003Contenders

Looking back, I believe that the major concussion Edwards received in the Arizona game was a red herring, rather than an indicator that there was regression after the hit. As others have pointed out, arguably his best game as a pro was in his NEXT game AFTER the Arizona one against the Chargers. Coming out of Stanford, the scouting profile on Edwards indicated that he was a high character individual (never threw teammates under the bus despite playing behind a horrific OL and having mediocre receivers in college), who was bright (could pick up a playbook), showed poise (a word that was over-used describing him as a rookie), and made very quick decisions. Stacked against him was average arm strength and an inability to throw with anticipation; Edwards never liked throwing the ball until his receivers came open. Also, as we would discover, the quick decision-making was not necessarily that he read coverage and processed what he saw quickly -- it was more an unwillingness on his part to wait for longer plays to develop. Peterman enters the league with a similar scouting report. Average arm strength that is mitigated somewhat by quick decision-making and poise. The distinction, however, is that one of Perterman's strengths supposedly is that he DOES anticipate his throws very well. In fact, according to Mayock, he may have been the best QB in this entire draft class in those regards. The common comparison for Peterman leading up to the draft was Kirk Cousins. Not the Kirk Cousins that we know today -- but the one who was an NFL prospect coming out of Michigan State. I remember scouts back then saying that they loved everything about him -- leadership, field vision, ability to anticipate throws -- but they just wish that he had more arm strength. Time will tell how well Peterman develops in the pros. But if he shows that he can at least make all of the necessary NFL throws he could be a keeper.

The irony is that the Browns were the first team to essentially come to terms with a player BEFORE they actually drafted him, as was the case when they took Tim Couch #1 overall overall back in 1999. Of course, even that was an epic fail as Couch was a bust, Donovan McNabb went one pick later, and the Browns turned down an offer to get the Saints entire draft (plus multiple future first rounders).

Hard to fault Modrak during the Donahoe years, because Donahoe was the one calling the shots. However, it is interesting to note that the team's best draft during those years was the one in 2001 (Nate, Travis Henry, Aaron Schobel...) which was the year BEFORE Modrak came on board. Perhaps that was coincidental. Modrak also probably did not play a huge role once Buddy took over as GM in 2010. His biggest impact probably came in the 2006-2009 seasons when Marv and Russ, neither of whom were really scouts. were running the show. If we are to believe various reports that circulated over the years: 2006: Modrak pounded the table for Cutler instead of Whitner 2007: Modrak accurately predicted all of the picks in the top 10 and convinced Marv not to take Poz in the first round, as he believed that Poz would still be available in the 2nd. (The Bills wound up trading up a few spots in the 2nd to secure Poz.) Whereas, Lynch would never make it out of the 1st round. 2008: McKelvin was definitely Modrak's guy in the first round -- but he wanted the Bills to move up in the 2nd to get Jordy Nelson. 2009: Someone at OBD removed Orakpo from consideration as they had a DND (Do Not Draft) policy associated with University of Texas players. Jauron wanted Maybin; Modrak clamored for Brian Cushing. We all know who won that argument.

Interesting that McD himself brought up the term "smoke screen" in regard to all the QB talk. If he really is going to call the shots in the draft room, it could be that he wants to start off his era with the QB of his choosing.

This actually make sense to me -- and I am frankly happy to see that the Bills may finally understand the notion of "value". Scouting, Knowing what the competition is doing and flexibility are all driving factors. In addition to scouting players, it is important to know how all the players are perceived by other teams -- to get a gauge on value. Maybe you are craving a cheeseburger and do not necessarily like lobster -- bust doesn't mean you should pay the going price of lobster for your cheeseburger! How many times over the years have we seen them RACE to the podium with their pick? Almost every year they do that -- and it makes no logical sense. Even if the guy they most covet is still there, why not wait the full allotted time to make sure that another team is not willing to knock off your socks with a trade option? As long as the pick is turned in within the 10-minute limit, no other team can steal it! Also, the team has to be flexible -- and willing to lose out on a player they like if they can get a strong ROI by trading down to get additional picks. I remember the grave mistake Marv made back in 2006. There were multiple teams interested in trading up with the Bills at a time when an extra 2nd round pick would have been great. Instead, he was so worried about maybe losing out on getting D. Whitner... A Plan B (and C) always needs to be in effect. As a hypothetical, let's say the Bills decision-makers like Mahomes the best of all the QBs in this draft class. But based on their research and discussions with various scouts' etc. they realize that most other teams have 2-3 other QBs ranked ahead of Mahomes. Thus, rather than immediately snatching Mahomes up with their first pick (when the other QBs with better "value" are still on the clock), the opportunity to turn that pick into additional picks just may present itself -- and they could very well still get the player (in this fictional case, Mahomes) they wanted at a more appropriate price in addition to more picks.

Or Hank Jr. who was fired for what he said outside the confines of ESPN.

The way I look at it, the Bills are in a pretty good spot picking 10th (as long as they don't do anything foolish). The Bills need to be agile and ready for anything, rather than zeroing in on a specific target. Given the various holes they have, this draft should line up perfectly for them to grab someone that can contribute right away. Also, this draft appears to have quality depth, where there is not much separating the 15th ranked player from, say, the 50th. That is why I would love to trade down and pick up an extra 2nd if the opportunity presents itself. I know everyone has their own rankings, but just a cursory glance of players I would be comfortable with at #10: Garrett Thomas Lattimore Hooker Adams Allen Howard R. Foster H. Reddick Taco Charleton M. Williams C.Davis That is 12 players -- minus any QBs that could go in the top 9. Also, there is always a team in the top 10 that makes a selection out of left field. I would love to see -- if, say, 3-4 of these players are still on the board at 10 -- the Bills trade down with a team like the Titans or Bucs who are supposedly infatuated with Mike Williams.

Lots of nostalgia for the name Kelly -- but given the off-field issues, on-field decision making and injury situation I still think there is a good chance he goes undrafted.

That is why I am expecting an almost over-the-top disciplinarian approach from McD. I am talking Coughlin-like. Mike Tomlin talked about this when he took over as head coach for the Steelers. Tomlin said it was easier to come in as a hard-ass and eventually loosen up some than to do the opposite. I would not be surprised if some high-visibility players are singled out -- and possibly made an example of in one fashion or another.

He is a top-5 overall talent, but I am not sure any GM in a less than solid situation with his team would be willing to pull the trigger on Hooker with a top 10 pick. He could wind up being a real wild card in this draft.

Interesting that he has Kizer as his top QB.

This almost makes me wonder if Holmes was brought in a Easley's replacement. I am still very much on board with targeting Williams/Davis in the 1st.

I was doing some research a few weeks ago to identify the top 5 salaries at each position, since that is how the franchise tag tenders for some players is calculated. In doing so, I noted that the following Bills players have a top 5 salary for 2017 at their respective positions: DT Marcel Dareus OL Cordy Glenn TE Charles Clay RB LeSean McCoy Meanwhile, the Patriots at the time had exactly ZERO players with a top 5 salary in 2017 at their respective positions. More specifically, Tom Brady's $14 M cap hit in 2017 saw him ranked 21st at his position. Both Tannehill and Tyrod (prior to the restructure) were bigger cap hit for this season than Brady! It is hard to compete when New England has this sort of foundation in place and guys on the team willing to drink the kool aide and play for less money to be there. (Even Hightower passed on more money to play for the Jets.) Meanwhile, the Bills have to overpay just to get free agents to come here.

Kelly figures to be a potential wild card in the draft. Polian is probably not far off about his arm talent and how it compares to the other top draft prospects. However, even if we fully dismiss the off-field stuff the fact remains that he had trouble reading defenses and forced a lot of throws in college. That likely places a 2nd round grade on him in normal circumstances. Then there is the off-field stuff, and there is A LOT of it. Enough to probably scare many teams off and to designate him with the DND (Do Not Draft) designation. Finally, there is the knee injury situation. Given all the other baggage, that likely takes Kelly completely off most draft boards. Of course, it only takes ONE team willing to roll the dice, so who knows what will happen.

If Mixon is in free-fall, I could see the Bills rolling the dice with, say, a 3rd round pick. Otherwise, I do not see them drafting a RB in the first 2 days of the draft (if at all).

Huh? In what way is "The net-loss vs. net-gain is not purely based on head count" incorrect? That is 100% correct! For example, losing a high-priced player who is a huge factor for the acquiring team in 2017 versus acquiring a low-cost depth player who may not even make the 2017 squad does not equate to a 1-for-1 wash (meaning no compensatory pick) via the formula.

Oh, I understand how the comp picks work fine, thank you. Obviously you are new around here, so I will be hospitable. :-) Still, since you called me out, I will respond by saying that nothing I referenced in my post is inaccurate. Perhaps you did not understand something I said, so allow me to reiterate: Compensatory picks stem from a formula developed by the NFL Management Council that is based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The compensatory formula only applies to certain free agents.

Folks, please ignore anyone at this point who is freaking out about comp picks. They know not of what they speak. The formula is based on multiple factors: 1. Net loss vs. net gains of QUALIFIED unrestricted free agents. 2. The net-loss vs. net-gain is not purely based on head count. The contract size(s) and playing time also figure into the calculation. Obviously these factors cannot be truly evaluated until AFTER the 2017 season. Which is -- get this -- why the compensatory picks are not announced until late February/early March every year! Bottom line, no one should be wigging out about the Bills' potentially losing out on 2018 compensatory picks.

Jim Miller was speculating on Sirius today that if Osweiler gets cut he could wind up with the Bills (as a backup) based on the Dennison connection.

Who knows? At one point in time, I think that JLC and others did have moles within the organization. Think back to the St. Doug stories that came out 3 years ago. However, whomever that mole was (Brandon?) -- he has either been canned, relinquished of inside info, or changed his decision to leak info. I honestly believe that over the last year or so that none of these reporters -- local or otherwise -- have the first clue what is going on within the organization because the front office is now keeping everything close to the vest. So when JLC, Vic or whomever report that they have inside sources, it is likely BS and conjecture as we have seen. At least Rappaport and Schefter admit when they are speculating and wait until they get confirmation from players/agents/league officials/team officials before declaring something is so. Now, playing my own conjecture game, here is what I think happened: 1. Tyrod, as we know, was Rex's guy. While I believe that is a true statement, it also does NOT mean that Whaley and./or others within the organization were necessarily ant-Tyrod guys. 2. After the Miami game, the Bills were officially eliminated and Rex was fired. The regular season finale against the Jets was meaningless. Lynn probably wanted to play to win to help his chances of landing a HC job here or elsewhere. Instead, Whaley/Pegula instructed him to sit Tyrod and start EJ and give Cardale some playing time as well. It was referred to as a business decision at the time, and that is exactly what it was. There was nothing to be gained by the Bills winning that game. Rather, it was a smart thing to do to sit Tyrod and avoid the risk of an injury -- and to also see what EJ and Cardale looked like in live game action. That whole situation looked bad at the time, but probably could have been clarified if Whaley had taken questions along with Lynn at the time everything went down. 3. The team performed a head coaching search -- and was willing to be open-minded about the QB position. Since Tyrod had been Rex's guy, Whaley/Pegula did not want to necessarily impose him upon the new head coach. Conversely, they also did not want to force the new coach (whomever that may have been) to go in another direction either. 3. One of the first things that McD did when he was hired was reach out to Tyrod. Based on what Tyrod said yesterday, it sounds like McD kept in touch with him throughout the process. He also made it a point to hire an OC who was familiar with Tyrod. We can surmise that McD had likely identified Tyrod as the best candidate to be his starting QB in 2017. McD also strikes me as being an honest, no-nonsense guy. So I think we can take his rare comments over the last couple of months at face value. What that also tells me is that he and his staff and reached a consensus that, while Tyrod is unlikely to ever be a franchise QB, he is a guy you can win with if things around him (including the defense) are shored up. 4. Whaley, less forthright than McD, had pretty much come to the same conclusion in terms of Tyrod's prospects. I think he tried investigating the possibility of upgrading the position and realized that there was no realistic option to do that for 2017. There was also the $ aspect and trying to work with Tryod's people to get him to restructure. So when McD said last week that no decision had yet been made about Tyrod's future, I believe he was being honest. 5. When it was all said and done, I believe the coaches asked the front office to retain Tyrod, which they were willing to do once Tyrod agreed to restructure his contract. In the end this was a win-win for all parties. I am not sure how anyone could claim that the process showed dysfunction when it actually showed just the opposite. I also do not see how we can speculate that there was a power struggle here either. Whaley does not strike me as a power-hungry guy. He pretty much worked with Marrone to get him the guys he wanted and by all accounts he did the same for Rex. And it looks like he is doing the same thing with McD so far. I think the negative spin on everything that has happened since week 16 of the regular season is twofold: 1. The press is annoyed with the Bills for keeping info on the low-down and not leaking info. 2. Neither Pegula nor Whaley are especially articulate or like being in front of a camera. So neither has exactly won the war with the media -- or even tried to for that matter.

Not to be THAT guy, but if you could bring him in at the vet minimum as a backup, would you do it?

Jerry has been (and remains) a troll long before the term as we now know it was invented. My favorite was leading up to the 2004 draft when he insisted that the Bills must do whatever it took to draft a QB in the first round. Then when they tried (and failed) to move up for Big Ben but instead made the move to get Losman, he criticized the team for moving up to get him. It is is irrelevant that the turned out to be correct that the move to get Losman was a bad one -- the point is that the team did exactly what he was suggesting, which was to move up to get a QB ranked as a first round prospect.

I am not buying that Tyrod does not like (or is incapable of) throwing to his tight ends. While Clay was certainly under-utilized most of the season, I wonder how much of that had to do with health (he had nagging injuries early on), and the absence of Watkins from the lineup. Notice that once Sammy made it back on the field late in the season, Clay's production stepped up dramatically. In fact, he was one of the most productive TEs in the NFL during the final few weeks of the season. Pairing him with another versatile TE has to be a good thing.

The two "signings" are for very different types of players. DiMarco is a run blocking FB. Tolbert is a goal line power back. He's the guy to come in on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 plays.

Have to imagine that Klein, who filled in nicely for Kuechley last year under McD and can play all LB positions, is a FA priority.