2003Contenders

Almost makes me wonder if the Pats are leaking stuff to reporters like Breer in hopes that Jackson will fall in the draft.

While trading from #1 overall down to 21 may seem like a steep drop, the Browns could easily package all the picks they have to move BACK into the top 10 without much effort. Heck, just the 2 first-round picks they would hypothetically acquire from the Bills would be enough to get them back to anywhere from 4-8 (depending upon which draft value chart you believe).

Now you are simply spreading "Fake News" to make your point. But just in case you really do not know, here is the breakdown of Tyrod's contract and the cap ramifications for this season: Base salary: $10 M Roster bonus: $6 M Signing Bonus amortization ($2.08 M) Total cap hit for 2018: $18.08 M Dead cap: $8.64 M So this $23M figure you keep spouting is a myth. If we keep him, the cap hit is $18M this year, whereas if we release/cut him it is $8.64 M. Furthermore, if he is gone that is $8.64 M PLUS whatever we would have to pay for his replacement. That means, assuming you are looking for a bridge veteran QB, finding someone willing to play for less than $10 M in 2018 whose future dead cap space in 2019 is no more than $5.6M (as Tyrod's would be). Playing devil's advocate, I would challenge anyone to name such a player. Please know that I am NOT necessarily advocating keeping him but pointing out the justification for why the Bills may ultimately do so -- and bracing the "Never Tyrod" crowd for what MAY end up happening. I agree 100% that Tyrod is not the answer at QB. I really hope that the team lands a future franchise QB in the draft, one that could potentially start from day one.

I am not sure it would cost THAT much to move up. Let's look back at a similar trade-up between Atlanta and the very same Cleveland Browns (to get Julio Jones) a few years ago (2011). In order to move up from 27 to 6, the Falcons gave up the following: #27 pick, 2nd rounder and 4th rounder in 2011, and the 1st rounder and 4th rounder in 2012. Notice that the Falcons did not have an additional 1st round pick in 2011 to work with as the Bills do. That additional 1st rounder (21/22) is worth more than the future 1st and 4th rounder combined. Hence, I would think that a trade of 21 and 22, coupled with one of the 2nd rounders this year would be enough to get into the top 5. Maybe sweeten the deal with one of the two 5th round picks. And, if Cordy Glenn truly is healthy, I would rather hold onto him.

Except for the following: 1. While Tyrod may cost $18 M, cutting him costs several million PLUS whatever his veteran replacement costs, which is likely to be well over $18 M combined. I am fine with that provided that the replacement is better than Tyrod. But who out there do we believe will be better than Tyrod and cost LESS than, say, $12-$13 M (which would still cost more against the cap than Tyrod)? 2. Tyrod's a big boy and understands that it is a business. It is pretty obvious that he was not the Bills' first choice last year either. The team forced him to re-work his contract. He could have declined and forced a parting of ways. The fact that both sides came to the resolution they did makes it pretty clear that the Bills did not see a viable and affordable replacement available, and Tyrod and his agent realized that they were not going to get a better deal from any other team. The team appears to be planning for multiple contingencies at the QB position this year, which is a great thing to do. Listening to both McD and B yesterday it is pretty clear that they do not see Tyrod as the long term answer. While pimping his positive aspects, neither was willing to endorse him. That sounds like either a sales pitch to potential trading partners or to fans like the OP should the team decide not to part ways with him. With the league so starved for QBs, I remain hopeful that there will be a trading partner out there. Who knows? If a starter for one of the other 31 teams goes down in training camp, Tyrod would suddenly become a very hot commodity (a la Sam Bradford to the Vikings a couple of years ago). Of course, for even that situation to work, the Bills themselves would have had to address the QB situation in the draft and/or free agency.

I think he is saying that the Browns would select Darnold with the #1 overall pick then have the 21 and 22 picks (acquired in a trade down with the Bills) to make giving up the #4 pick appear rather palpable.

Nothing new here. The book has been out on Tyrod for a long time. He is mobile and does a great job protecting the football. However, when he HAS to throw -- that is, the element of running the ball by him, Shady or whomever is taken out of the equation -- he simply cannot get the job done.

LOL some guy named Alan Hopkins is calling them out in the Comments section for overlooking Buffalo entirely.

Remember that in addition to paying (and in this case likely over-paying) for a veteran QB, the Bills would also be on tab for some of Tyrod's money both in terms of real $ (if we believe that they intend to pay him the $6 M bonus that is coming up) as well as cap space if he is traded/cut. That is why I think it is highly unlikely that the Bills will pay big $ for a UFA QB this year. I believe that they are planning on going all in on drafting a rookie QB this year. If they manage to get the guy they really want at the top of the draft (Rosen/Mayfiled/Darnold), then Tyrod may not even be on the roster on Opening Day. If they have to settle for a Jackson/Rudolph type, then Tyrod serves as a bridge until the new QB is ready. Given the quick hook to Peterman in the midst of last season's playoff run, that could even come early in 2018.

In 2015 it was Bryce Petty. LOL

I am in no way defending Russ as it relates to football decisions he was a part of... However, guys in the know back then told me that even though he was the de facto GM in 2008/2009, Russ pretty much left all of the heavy lifting in the drafts to Tom Modrak. Modrak did not especially like the limelight and preferred staying down in Florida, as opposed to Brandon who was a Buffalo guy through-and-through and loved getting all the attention he could get. I am told that Brandon's involvement in day-to-day operations, scouting, the draft, etc. has always been over-stated. While Russ was willing to serve as the face of the franchise back them he relied on Modrak to handle the scouting and run the War Room at draft time. In fact, the 2008 draft in particular was all Modrak (he LOVED Leodis). Dick Jauron reportedly had a greater say in the 2009 draft, and it was Jauron who was allowed to overrule Modrak on that first round pick of Maybin (Jauron REALLY wanted an "edge rusher") over the guy that Modrak wanted (Brian Cushing) with the 11th overall pick (not the 9th as I misstated above). Modrak was so incensed about this that he wasted little time leaking his preference for Cushing to the press the next day. Still, Russ deserves the blame for allowing these things to happen under his watch. Also under his watch: 1. Low-balling and then trading Jason Peters 2. Signing Fitz to an inflated contract at a time when Fitz was on a hot streak -- and believing that Fitz was the "answer" 3. Extending Dick Jauron's contract I am so glad that Russ has been relegated to doing what he does best: team marketing.

Let's not forget that Russ also oversaw the 2009 draft as well, which gave us... A. Maybin ninth overall!

It makes sense that the plan regarding the move-down last season centered on the acquisition of the extra 2018 1st round pick and the possibility that this extra pick would provide the team with the necessary capital to move up and take a bona fide franchise QB in the draft. However, it is unlikely that OBD really thought they would be picking in the 20's with their own pick in 2018, which makes the ability to move up THAT high much more difficult than expected. If we assume that they do everything they can to move up to get the guy of their choice -- and rumors are that they are already working the phone lines as we speak -- and they are UNABLE to finding a willing trade partner, then I am OK with the team essentially trading one of those first rounders to move back into the 2nd round AND get an extra 1st rounder next year. Essentially they would be postponing what they planned to do in 2018 for one more year. Meanwhile, these trades are very common as teams picking in the 2nd round try to get into the first to gain that extra year of eligibility before the player hits free agency.

The 2016 sweep was largely because of the Bills' horrific run defense that allowed Ajayi to rush for well over 200 yards in both games. Tannehill did very little in the first game and did not play at all in the second. Meanwhile, Taylor had his best passing game as a pro in that second game. Aside from those two games, Tyrod is 4-0 against the Dolphins (with and without Tannehill). I am more than ready to see Tyrod go, but there is no way I would say that he is inferior to Tannehill.

Uh, they didn't pay Cordy?

Well, two years ago Cousins did lead the Redskins into the playoffs in a pretty tough division. The Redskins made some horrific off-season moves in which they let go of his top two receivers (Garcon and Jackson) and replaced them with garbage. His favorite target (TE Jordan) was out most of the year. The running game was non-existent, as the team was down to their 3rd string RB by season's end. Yet, despite all of these issues, Cousins still managed to pass for well over 4,000 yards and 27 TD passes -- plus 4 rushing TDs, the same number as the highly mobile Tyrod. Imagine what Cousins could do with a weapon like Shady in the backfield?

The going rate for a starting QB is what it is. Jimmy G just signed a contract that will pay him about $27.5 M per season. Kirk Cousins is going to sign a contract that will put him in the same stratosphere. For those complaining about the $ it would cost to bring in Cousins, think about this: last year the Bears payed nearly $15 M for Mike Glennon. Yes, Mike Glennon -- and then they traded up a spot to draft Trubisky high in the first round AFTER signing him. If the Bills elect to move on from Tyrod, who will cost about $16 M in 2018 if they keep him, they will have to spend about that much money for even a "bridge QB" (Bradford or whomever) in ADDITION to the dead money for releasing/trading Tyrod. Realize also that the cap can be navigated by smart pencil-pushers. For example, there is some dead money (e.g. the un-amortized $ for Dareus and hypothetically speaking Tyrod) that will clear the books after 2018, meaning that the Cousins contract can be structured to push much of the cap hit BEYOND 2018. And the Pegulas' have the deep pockets to pay the contract in such a way that an up-front signing bonus (which can be spread out over the life of the contract) can help negate the 2018 cap impact. That is why I am on board with Plan A being a full court press to attract Cousins -- which will also allow the team to hang onto all four of their picks in the first two rounds, none of which would have to be devoted to a QB pick. That's four players that could hopefully be immediate contributors at a controlled cost. The controlled cost for the 4 players also helps to negate the $ that would have had to be spent in free agency at those respective positions and further mitigates the $ spent on Cousins.

I hear ya, but there is no denying that Gaines made a huge impact on the defense last year. Just look at the team's record in games he played versus games he didn't.

Honestly, if the Bills really are unable to trade up to get a franchise guy and the best they can do in free agency is Keenum, I could live with hanging onto Tyrod AND drafting Lamar Jackson.

I don't pretend to know how any of these QBs will translate to the NFL, but just the fact that as many as 6 appear to be legitimate first rounders (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Jackson, Rudolph), I feel a little better about the possibility of a decent option still being there at 21 without having to trade up. And, if there is a guy that the scouts like head and shoulders over the remaining 3-4 (after the first couple are drafted early), the Bills should be able to trade up without having to give away the farm.

I understand the speculation about the Colts possibly trading Luck: 1. When McDaniels took over in Denver, the first thing he did was trade Cutler for draft picks and acquired Orton. So there is precedent for a move like this. His mentor did the same thing in his gigs in Cleveland (Bernie Kozar) and New England (Drew Bledsoe). 2. The Colts have the #3 overall pick. They can certainly draft a top QB option in this year's draft PLUS have the extra picks acquired in the Luck trade to build around the young QB and the rest of the team. That said, if Luck truly is healthy, I have a hard time seeing the Colts trade him. Furthermore, if he is healthy, there would likely be other suitors with better draft picks to offer in exchange.

So many things to consider... First, the Bills are in a bit of a catch 22 because they have no assurance of what QBs will be available to them in the draft (whether they trade up or not). Moreover, since free agency starts almost 2 months before the draft, their Plan A would have to be based on chronology rather than desire. Hence, Plan A would be to sign a proven starting QB in free agency (Cousins, Alex Smith, whichever Viking QB is available, etc.) with part of that plan to also include drafting a long-term QB. Plan B would be in the event that the team is unable to sign a solid veteran in free agency. I would have to think that the plan would then be to go all out for Darnold/Mayfield/whichever QB they prefer in the draft. In the event that they are unable to draft the QB of choice, then I think that is where Plan C comes in. In that case, I would look to draft BPA at QB (Jackson, White, Faulk or whomever) in the appropriate round in the hopes of catching lightening in the bottle -- and also bringing in the best option still available in free agency. That could mean hanging on to Tyrod. That's why I would not get rid of Tyrod WITHOUT having a better option under contract first.

I will say this: if they really do believe that Darnold or Rosen (or whomever) legitimately projects to be a franchise QB, then they should do whatever it takes to move up for him. My guess is that will be hard to do, since so many other teams picking in the top 5 also have a real need for a QB. First, I hope that if they do try hard to move up for a certain guy and are unable to make that move, then they do not panic and trade up for another QB "just because". That is the mistake they made in 2004, when they thought they had a deal in the works to move up to Houston's spot and take Ben Roethlisberger. When Houston backed out and the Bills were unable to get in front of Pittsburgh to get Big Ben, Donahoe panicked and instead traded up for JP Losman. Uggg! I also hope they are not dead-set on taking a QB in the first round even if they believe that the draft class is weak -- a la 2013 when no QB coming out that year had a first round grade and they selected EJ anyway banking on upside. The world does not end if they can't land the QB they covet. There will be some guys available in the free agent market -- and it is smarter to build up the rest of the roster than significantly overpay for a questionable rookie QB. Obviously the free agency period, which opens in about 6 weeks, will give us a strong clue as to what the Bills will do in the draft. Depending on whom (if anyone) they acquire and what they give up (both potentially in terms of draft picks as well as $ paid to the veteran QB).

Funny enough there was a segment on ESPN with Danny Kennell that focused on this issue. The discussion centered around the great pump fake that Foles demonstrated in the NFC Championship game on Sunday. Kennell mentioned that Foles has some of the biggest hands in the NFL -- well over 10". He then talked about the big hands being a nice attribute for cold weather QBs and that Kelly, Bradshaw and Favre all had great success throwing the ball in cold weather because of their big hands -- and that QBs like Dan Fouts struggled when playing in the cold weather. He also added that having big hands is imperative for QBs who do a lot of pump fakes -- and that is one reason why you do not see Brady do many pump fakes: he has small hands (by NFL QB standards) at 9 3/8". Hand-size is certainly a factor to consider -- especially for Buffalo where the need is heightened because of the weather late in the season. But it is silly to place too much emphasis on it as they did when drafting EJ Manuel.

Apparently, MM was offended that some school teacher saw his kid's last name and asked if he was related to the "soon-to-be ex-coach of the Tennessee Titans". Oh, wait...