2003Contenders

Actually, these passing numbers are probably selling him short. The fallacy with projecting his numbers over a full season, I think, is the needless consideration of his first stint as a starter prior to the injury when he clearly was not ready. The 6 games he played once coming back from the injury, I believe , form a better sample size of what to expect as a baseline heading into 2019. That would put him around 3200-3300 passing yards. Hopefully he improves with a full off-season and getting virtually all reps as the starter in camp next season. Also, hopefully the front office does a good job surrounding him with better play-makers.

I find all of this over-analysis of a rookie QB By the pundits to be a bit silly., but here are a few thoughts: 1. I remember back in the 2005-2010 timeframe when the Bills would scrimmage the Packers in the preseason. Prior to the 2006 season, the two teams went toe-to-toe, and I remember at the time being so happy that the Bills had made the move up in the 2004 draft to get JP Losman rather than wait until 2005 to take Aaron Rodgers. During those 2006 drills and scrimmage, Losman (going into his 3rd season) looked so much more polished than did Rodgers (going into his second year). Doh! 2. For whatever reason, Josh Allen was a very polarizing figure headed into this 2018 draft. I am not sure why. Maybe it had something to do with the old guard (arm strength, measureables, prototypical physical traits, etc.) versus the new guard (analytics). The old guard cited Allen as a generational talent; the new guard did not see a great translation to the NFL based on his college stats. Guys like Mel Kiper and Phil Simms thought he should be the #1 overall pick. Other pundits did not even view him as a 1st round pick. The typical book on him was that he was going to be a "Boom or Bust" NFL QB. 3. This polarization has led many of these pundits to remain steadfast (stubborn) in their evaluation. Rookie QBs are going to make rookie mistakes -- and the Allen detractors love clinging to the missteps he has made in each of his games. Of course, the Allen apologists are happy to blame every mistake he makes on the play calling, poor WRs, OL, etc. 4. The completion percentage remains a thing that the detractors refuse to let go. There certainly is some merit to the fact that Allen does not throw with the precision that a Drew Brees, for example, does. He didn't at Wyoming, and he has yet to demonstrate that he will in the NFL. That said, there are some mitigating factors, including a poor supporting cast. The one thing that no one wants to point out is that the types of passes that Allen thrives on are by their very nature high-risk, downfield passes, which naturally leads to a lower completion percentage. Trent Green and Bruce Ariens talked about this in the New England game. Josh's tendency is to always want to make that big play, when sometimes the smaller, more "sure thing" play is available. Once he starts to better understand this, he will get better AND his completion % will improve. Again, he may never be a high 60's percentage passer, but that does not necessarily mean he cannot be successful. 5. Josh Allen really has been thrown to the wolves. I was one of those who believed going into the season that based on his rawness he would be a good candidate to sit the entire rookie season out and watch from the sidelines. I feared that (in addition to his lack of polish) that the less-than-adequate supporting cast would place him in an impossible position to succeed. That has largely been the case. However, rather than having his confidence shot the young QB has done a remarkable job of remaining poised and rising above it all. I like what I see in terms of the body language, confidence and leadership. Since returning from his injury, there has been little to no running game to speak of and with less-than-adequate receivers around him, Allen has had to do a great deal on his own. His future success will depend on finding that middle ground of competing on every play -- but at the same time learning to take what the defense is willing to give him. 6. One thing no one talks much about are the intangibles that I just alluded to. From what I have seen so far, Allen has these in spades. You can sense that his teammates -- even veterans like Zo and Shady -- love his competitive leadership. And it doesn't sound like the "wishful thinking" sound bites we used to get in the days of Losman or EJ. He also seems to be very coachable and able to learn from his mistakes on the fly. (The Cover1 guys did a great job of breaking this down when going over the film from the New England game). The guys that have been busts (Leaf, Russell, etc.) all had fatal mental or character flaws. I don't see that with Allen. The physical goods are obvious, he seems like a smart young man -- and by all accounts he is willing to work to get better. I am not saying that the "Boom" tag will ever apply (although I hope it does) -- I just don't see the dreaded "Bust" tag ever coming into play. That is provided, of course, that Allen can avoid reckless play and protect himself from injury. 7. I must admit that I was ambivalent about the Josh Allen pick. I do not pretend to be a master of scouting college QBs and projecting whether or not they will ever evolve into being a quality NFL QB. To those who loved the pick, I say be patient. He is far from a finished product -- and the Bills would do well to set him up for success by improving his supporting cast in the off-season. To those who hated the pick, I say to also be patient and remember that even the most vocal Allen supporters acknowledged that he would have to go through some growing pains before getting better. If he can master the small things (game management stuff), he has so much upside with the big things (downfield threat and mobility) to truly be special.

Excellent point by both you and dakrider. Would I like to see Josh Allen's completion percentage improve? Of course, I would. Each game we do see passes that we know he would love to have back. But completion % does not tell the whole story. (I believe Rob Johnson remains the all time Buffalo Bills leader in Completion Percentage!) And anyone who watched the game yesterday and came away believing that Josh Allen is a woefully inaccurate passer is being intellectually dishonest. I would add also that a more meaningful stat than completion % would be yards per attempt. Even with Allen completing only 50% of his passes, he had a very solid 7.8 yards per attempt. That is quite a bit better than Stafford's 7.17 -- even though Stafford had a considerably higher completion percentage. Note without comment that Mahomes, whom so many Bills fans appear to lamenting as the one we let get away, this past week was 24 of 34 for 243 yards. Yet again, significantly higher completion percentage but a yards per attempt number that was even lower than Stafford's: 7.14. That doesn't even factor in all of the dropped passes and DPI.

Along those lines, the red zone defense has been putrid the last 2 weeks.

I suspect that he will be a huge priority in the off-season. Alexander is a leader on and off the field and probably a favorite of McD's. A guy that gets "the process".

In addition to his physical attributes that have been well on display, I love his intangibles as well. You can see the way the veteran players around him respond to his leadership and contagious positive attitude. I guarantee the way in which he accepted the blame for the last pass of the game falling incomplete did not go unnoticed in the locker room. I would not be surprised to see Clay (or even KB) step up this week and makes some plays for the team.

Besides, what is McCarthy's record with versus without Rodgers in the lineup?

Excellent and fair review. I will say in Clay's defense that he was not entirely useless yesterday either. He actually did a solid job blocking most of the game -- and made a couple of key outside blocks on 1st down runs.

I am very happy for Frank because he is a great guy! That said, the Colts on offense have a vastly superior lineup to the Bills'. The Colts started off 1-5 largely because Andrew Luck did not have his "sea legs" under him after missing over a year of playing time. Now that he is 100%, the offense has taken a new shape. I hope that Josh Allen continues to progress and that one day we can mention him in the same breath as Luck -- but he's nowhere near that point now. Of course, when we played the Colts a few weeks ago, it was with Josh on the sideline with the elbow injury and with the hapless D. Anderson at QB. It is doubtful we win that game even with Allen behind center, but still... Meanwhile, the Bills have nothing close to TY Hilton or Eric Ebron, either.

In McCoy's defense, he has not had plenty of opportunities this season. With the exception of the Jets game (in which Shady played well), all of the games in which Josh Allen did NOT start wound up being blowouts where the running game went out the door rather quickly. In the games where Josh has started, defenses have ascribed to the strategy of loading the box and forcing Josh to beat them. If you are a defensive coordinator, you are going to identify Shady as the team's biggest threat and game-plan to stop him. A few more big plays like we had against the Jags on Sunday, and maybe teams will start to respect the pass a bit more. Also, another thing to note: when the pocket breaks down Josh's first instinct is to run, which worked out well on Sunday. A nice wrinkle for Dabol to add would be to mix in more dump-offs to McCoy (I believe there was only one of these against the Jags).

Compare this to how our young QB handled himself in the PC after the Jags game when asked about Ramsey's comments. I prefer the classy manner in which Josh Allen handled himself. Also, I suspect that the Browns current douche of a head coach -- the beloved GGG -- probably helps to propagate this sort of behavior with the players, rather than to caution them about making sensational public statements.

I agree. Rookies are by their very nature erratic. Recall that the game after the big one against the Vikings, Josh responded with a stinker against the Packers. This is going to happen from time to time, and I hope the fan base will be patient and not get overly hysterical when Allen inevitably has a bad game. These rookie QBs are all in varying situations. If we believe all of the media reports that came out leading up to the draft, the Browns really were conflicted about Mayfield versus Allen. That is, the polish and savvy of Mayfield versus the off-the-charts potential (but overt rawness) of Allen. Cleveland decided for the good of the franchise to go the direction of Mayfield. And, so far that looks like they made the right decision. But who knows how well that will pan out down the road? After all, the 2018 draft was not all about which QB would be best in 2018 -- but who may have the best chance being the face of the franchise for the next 10 years. The early returns prove that the naysayers were right about Mayfield being pro-ready. But there were other experts who believed that Rosen may be the most pro ready of them all. Rosen has decent weapons -- but a horrible offensive line. Then there is Darnold, who has also shown some potential but has also been brutal at times. I, for one, never understood the consensus "boom or bust" prediction for Josh Allen heading into the draft. The boom is obvious given his crazy measureables and smarts.. However, the floor seems too high to fear that he could be a real bust (a la JaMarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf). Even when Josh has struggled, he's never had that deer-in-the-headlights look. More impressive to me in the victory yesterday (even than the long run and the big pass plays) was his pocket presence. I am talking about the manner in which he stepped up in the pocket when he needed to, made subtle movements in the pocket or rolled out, and was willing to stare through the teeth of the defense and keep his eyes downfield. If the coaches and front office handle him the right way, he has a chance to be something special.

Pretty much. At least that was the "excuse" that Marrone reportedly gave for exercising the buy-out clause in his contract. The Pegulas wanted him back and were willing to give him a contract extension to stay. He demanded that all of his assistants (including Hackett, who was heavily criticized during his 2 years here as OC) also be given guaranteed contract extensions. When the Pegulas balked, the inevitable happened. While that may have been the reason Marrone "officially" gave for moving on, the real reason was that the buy-out gave him a guaranteed $4M -- and the Jets head coaching position (supposedly his dream job) had just opened with the firing of Rex. Marrone received word from his agent (prior to the exercising the contract buy-out) that he would be viewed as the top candidate for the Jets' job . Ironically his quitting on the Bills made him toxic to fans as a head coach candidate in New York (and elsewhere). Hence, his biding his time until the Jags job opened and like-minded Coughlin was calling the shots.

Bingo!

The revisionist history regarding Brees is comical. While he deserves credit for evolving into one of the greatest passers in NFL history, there was little indication that this would happen early in his career. 1. Despite being such a prolific passer at Purdue, he fell to the 2nd round back in 2001 largely because of questions about his arm strength and short stature -- just 6'0". 2. Brees did not look great for the Chargers in any of his first three seasons. I remember a game he played (I believe it was in 2002) against us in Buffalo. He absolutely could NOT throw the ball in the poor elements. The Chargers coaches benched him in the 2nd half, and Flutie came in off the bench. (The Bills held on to win the game.) 3. The Chargers thought so little of Brees that they drafted Eli Manning with the #1 overall pick in 2004 -- and, yes, Brees played a significant role in getting them to the position of drafting #1 overall (he also missed a number of starts that season due to injury). Of course, the team made the swap with the Giants when they were on the clock at #4 to take Philip Rivers. 4. Maybe the drafting of Manning/Rivers served as a wake-up call because Brees finally played well that year (2004). However, he injured his throwing shoulder late in the season. It is hard to blame any team for passing on a QB coming off a serious shoulder injury, who played well in a contract year prior to the injury -- but had otherwise shown little. Credit the Saints for recognizing his potential and signing him to what was at the time a hefty contract.

I think it is a couple of things... 1. I am convinced that Doug Marrone honestly did not get along with the rest of the front office during his time here. Marrone certainly bears some responsibility here, as he could be quite surly at times. In hind-sight, though, he was probably the one in the right versus some inane goings on with Doug W and Russ B. I firmly believe that Russ was the one leaking all the "Saint Doug" stuff to the press. I suspect that much of this started with the drafting of EJ, as Marrone never seemed to be on board with that selection. That was exacerbated by Whaley's trading away the 2015 first round pick to move up 5 spots to take Sammy in 2014. Worse, the front office never brought in a capable backup as insurance for EJ. It was not until Marrone had the infamous outburst at Whaley and Russ in the 2014 preseason that they brought Orton in. I still do not like that Marrone took the money and quit on the team after the 2014 season -- but I think the relationship with him and the guys in the front office had become toxic. The Pegulas could have done a better job of stepping in here and navigating the situation -- but they were still trusting Russ too much at this point. 2. Sitting out a couple of years probably helped Marrone gain some perspective. Over that time he likely did some soul searching and recognized better that a large percentage of being a successful head coach at the NFL level pertains to the PR aspects that seemed to annoy him in his first go-round. I've also heard Marrone on Sirius radio in recent months, and he definitely comes across much more laid back and likable than he ever did during his time in Buffalo.

Here are my thoughts: -- Anthony Lynn is a good coach. -- Sean McDermott is a good coach. -- I believe that the Pegulas' interest in Lynn was sincere. -- Whaley and the Pegulas (inadvertently, I believe) threw Lynn under the pass, forcing him to face the press when Rex was fired. It was not a good look for Lynn or the franchise. -- The Pegulas wanted to go in a new direction. I also believe that the two teams were looking for something different in their head coaches at the time. The Bills were looking for someone whom they believed could serve as the face of the franchise -- someone they believed could also play a role in being the architect of a new-look team. The Chargers, believing that they had a quality front office in place and a telent-loaded roster that had under-0achieved under McCoy, were looking more for a solid leader and coach who could get the most out of the talent on the field.

Oh, my. Let's at least wait until the season is over before we start talking about "growth", OK? If McD was on the level about going back to Josh Allen (assuming that he is healthy), the coach is in effect saying that the team is willing to ride out the season with the rookie come what may. Six games to finish the season combined with what Allen already exhibited earlier in the season at least provides a body of work to evaluate. But, guess what? That still is not a very large sample size. So, please be patient. It could take another year or so before we really know what we have in Josh Allen. Progression is not always linear, either. So Allen could look great, for example, against the Jags -- and then turn around and play poorly in his next game. That does not necessarily mean that he is regressing -- it just emphasizes again how inconsistent young players (especially QBs) can be. I am so glad that the folks around here that are prone to overreaction are not responsible for running this team.

Bill Parcells used to speak of a 3-year assessment for top rookie QBs. Emphasis is on "top", meaning that the QB was acquired by the team with the thought/hope that he could become a franchise QB. Year 1: They are rookies. Understand that and be patient with them. Year 2: There is usually still much to learn -- but there should be SIGNIFICANT improvement over Year 1. Year 3: This is the decision year. By Year 3, the QB should be trusted as the face of the franchise and able to carry the offense if need be. If that happens, you are set. If it doesn't, then you acquire a different QB in Year 4. The caveat is that, along the way, if there is regression or the player clearly exhibits issues that the scouts missed, you cut ties with them even sooner.

Here's the thing -- and hopefully McD understands this. If he rolls Barkley out there and he struggles, making the move to Josh Allen (whether in-game or down the line) is an obvious and expected decision. However, if he starts Allen and then makes the move to Barkley for fear of losing the locker room or whatever -- that could very well have lasting, dire consequences. We have seen it all to many teams how benching a young QB can affect their mojo as well as the confidence that the rest of the team has in him. I have always felt that the original plan was to have Allen sit behind a place-holder until he proved ready to take over as the permanent starter. The problem was that McCarron simply was not good enough to do that -- and Peterman actually out-played him in the preseason. The surprising effectiveness of Barkley against the Jets gives OBD a chance to reset that original plan. It is up to Barkley how long that timetable lasts. If the Jets game was an aberration, then we could very well see Allen by halftime against the Jags. If the Jets game was indicative of what Barkley could potentially bring to the table, then maybe Allen gets the chance to sit, watch and learn. In that event, I would expect both Peterman and Anderson (once he clears concussion protocol) to be sent packing. At least that is how I would handle the situation...

How quickly we forget the crap-fest Watson put on against our very own Bills a few weeks ago. Fortunately for him, Nate Peterman came in for an injured Josh Allen and sealed the deal.

I know the emergence of the Rams with McVey and the Bears with Naggy has everyone talking about offensive-minded head coaches. However, I don't think it has much to do with whether the coach is offense-minded or defense-minded. Bill B may go down in history as the greatest head coach in NFL history, and he is a defensive guy. Beginning with Mularkey, three of the four head coaches (Mularkey, Chan, Marrone) that the Bills hired came from the offensive side of the ball. For the Bills, the problem prior used to be that Ralph simply did not see value in paying top dollar for coaches.Hence, all of the retreads over the years. Recall that Marv was himself a retread at the time that he took over in 1986. I think Ralph finally learned the error of his ways when Jauron was fired in the middle of the 2009 season. At the time, the team even tried to court Bill Cowher and Mike Shannahan, and Ralph was reportedly willing to pay $10 per year for either. It was Cowher who recommended Chan. At least Marrone, Rex and McDermott were somewhat in demand at the time that the Bills hired them.

I actually do not disagree with the author's premise. In fact, during the game Moose kept pointing out how, realizing that their backs were against the wall with the team in the position to HAVE to start Peterman, the supporting cast really needed to step it up. They did not do that. In fact, the supporting cast in no way helped the struggling young QB -- and proved to be more of a hindrance. One play in particular underscored this, and it was on the 4th and long, where Peterman scrambled to his left and made a pinpoint toss to the endzone for KB. It was a tough catch, as it was well defended. However, it hit Benjamin in the hands; if he is as good as he thinks he is, he should make a catch like that to help his young QB. The real issue is that the supporting cast is itself so bad (including the gutless KB). The receivers are getting no separation, and their hands are not very good across the board. That spells doom for a noodle-arm QB like Peterman, who tried to "fire" the ball in there.

6-10 was my expectation with 8-8 as the upside (hope). I was trying to be pragmatic, realizing that last year a number of things went just right for this team. For those that are overly pessimistic, expecting a 2-14 finish, I would remind you: 1. The schedule thus far has been brutal. The Bills were underdogs in every game -- and still found a way to win 2 of them. 2. The schedule starts to get easier this week. 3. Even with the offense playing so poorly, it will not take a shootout to beat the likes of the Jets and Dolphins. 4. Simply protecting the football on offense and cashing in on turnovers on defense could be enough to win 3-4 more games down the stretch. 5. There is a chance that we have 1-2 more games like the Minnesota game where everything goes right. For me, the record is not the issue. What I want to see is Josh Allen show marginal weekly progression -- and for the team to at least be competitive and stop these embarrassing blowout losses. That said, 4-12 or 5-11 is now my revised expectation -- with 6-10 being the new ceiling.

I agree with you. Additionally, I would like for the Pegulas to do what they were originally reported to be doing when they took over a few years ago -- that is bring in an experienced and impartial guru as an "aid" to the existing front office. Now that the offense has completely bottomed out, someone who knows what the hell they are doing needs to come in here as an architect to help set a solid foundation.