2003Contenders

Coaches by their very nature are a conservative breed. What we saw yesterday was very indicative of what we have seen over the past 18 years and counting. Actually, even including Wade's 3 years, where the winning was predicated on a strong defense and an occasional big play from Flutie. The mindset is typically to keep the offense conservative -- and only open it up when you have to in the 4th quarter. That formula actually works when the defense in strong enough to keep the opponent's offense in check. These coaches like QBs who manage the game and do not turn the ball over. That is what Tyrod did yesterday, so I am not at all surprised to see the vote of confidence from McD and Dennison. The way they look at it is that when your defense only gives up 9 points and your offense does not turn the ball over you are going to win the game the vast number of times. Of course, the margin of error when playing like this is razor thin. I have resigned myself to the notion that this is a mulligan year for the Bills. So I have no expectations. I just want to see a foundation form and for the team to make strides. I like what I have seen of the defense the last 2 weeks and would like to see them continue in a positive direction. I recognize that McD made some errors yesterday -- especially with clock management. But I am willing to be patient and see if he learns from these mistakes and improves as a first year head coach. The same goes for Dennison, who does not have an offensive minded head coach to oversee him like he did when coaching under Kubiak. We know what Tyrod is. He is a serviceable, lower-half-of-the-league starting QB. There are some things he does well -- and other things he will never be able to do well. Still, he has his 3rd OC in as many years and an entirely new cast of WRs to work with. If he continues to minimize turnovers and the chemistry with the receivers improves, then (assuming that the defense is legit) the Bills could very well win 8 or more games this year. If he falls short of that modest goal and/or the team really does start to tank mid-season, then I expect a shift to Peterman.

While it is hard to benchmark exactly where Bills are in the NFL pecking order based on an inferior Week 1 opponent, there are a few things that must be observed: 1. The Bills showed that they could beat a team that they are SUPPOSED to beat. 2. They beat this team in relatively dominant fashion: the Bills rank in the top five in both offense AND defense after week one. 3. The Jets are a division rival who beat them twice last year. The Jets were not a very good team last year either. 4. One of my big fears this off-season was how well the offensive line would stand up. They looked pretty good against an upper echelon defensive line on Sunday. So plenty of positives to take away from the game even if it was ONLY the Jets. Still, cautious optimism remains in order. Carolina is a much better team than the Jets -- and this game is a road game for the Bills. So Test #2 is on the way.

It will be interesting to see what sort of competing offer the Ravens make (if, in fact, they make an offer). The problem for the Bills in offering a 1-year prove-it deal (if true) is that it is hardly an appealing opportunity for a wide receiver hoping to capitalize and hit the jackpot next year. I understand that the offense will be different this year with Dennison, but the fact remains that the team is still built to be run-first. It is difficult to visualize a WR2 putting up huge numbers in this offense. Of course, Robert Woods DID get his.

Well, there was the post-MCM Massacre when Bruce, Andre and Thurman were all cut.

Mel Kiper had Jones ranked as his #22 prospect overall and compared him to Hines Ward. Said he was a man among boys at the Senior Bowl. I know Kiper is certainly not gospel, but would be nice if he was right on this one!

This Cameron DaSilva is a clown. I was about to suggest that he is blogger that wants to be a big boy. But when you read his agenda-driven piece, complete with items taken out of context and quotes left out, it is clear that he represents everything that is wrong with the "media" these days.

There will always a place in the NFL for a QB who throws with accuracy. timing and can read a defense -- even if he has mediocre arm strength. That may limit him as a career backup/spot starter -- or, if he continues to weave his craft and do whatever he can to improve the arm strength, perhaps he could develop into something better. Peterman may have limited upside but appears to be a guy who will probably stay in the league given the shortage of QBs coming out of college these days who can actually read a defense and throw with anticipation. I think that is was Gruden meant when he said that any team drafting Peterman would recognize a "sure profit".

That is what happened to the Lions several years ago when they actually fired Marty Mornhenwig for the sole purpose of hiring Steve Mariucci when he surprisingly became available. Every prospective minority coach on the planet knew that Mooch was their guy so no one was willing to waste time with agreeing to a pointless interview to satisfy the Rooney Rule. Matt Millen, who was the GM at the time, claimed that he had actually interviewed Dennis Green for the position over the phone -- so I do not believe any action was taken against the Lions at the time.

Looking back, I believe that the major concussion Edwards received in the Arizona game was a red herring, rather than an indicator that there was regression after the hit. As others have pointed out, arguably his best game as a pro was in his NEXT game AFTER the Arizona one against the Chargers. Coming out of Stanford, the scouting profile on Edwards indicated that he was a high character individual (never threw teammates under the bus despite playing behind a horrific OL and having mediocre receivers in college), who was bright (could pick up a playbook), showed poise (a word that was over-used describing him as a rookie), and made very quick decisions. Stacked against him was average arm strength and an inability to throw with anticipation; Edwards never liked throwing the ball until his receivers came open. Also, as we would discover, the quick decision-making was not necessarily that he read coverage and processed what he saw quickly -- it was more an unwillingness on his part to wait for longer plays to develop. Peterman enters the league with a similar scouting report. Average arm strength that is mitigated somewhat by quick decision-making and poise. The distinction, however, is that one of Perterman's strengths supposedly is that he DOES anticipate his throws very well. In fact, according to Mayock, he may have been the best QB in this entire draft class in those regards. The common comparison for Peterman leading up to the draft was Kirk Cousins. Not the Kirk Cousins that we know today -- but the one who was an NFL prospect coming out of Michigan State. I remember scouts back then saying that they loved everything about him -- leadership, field vision, ability to anticipate throws -- but they just wish that he had more arm strength. Time will tell how well Peterman develops in the pros. But if he shows that he can at least make all of the necessary NFL throws he could be a keeper.

The irony is that the Browns were the first team to essentially come to terms with a player BEFORE they actually drafted him, as was the case when they took Tim Couch #1 overall overall back in 1999. Of course, even that was an epic fail as Couch was a bust, Donovan McNabb went one pick later, and the Browns turned down an offer to get the Saints entire draft (plus multiple future first rounders).

Hard to fault Modrak during the Donahoe years, because Donahoe was the one calling the shots. However, it is interesting to note that the team's best draft during those years was the one in 2001 (Nate, Travis Henry, Aaron Schobel...) which was the year BEFORE Modrak came on board. Perhaps that was coincidental. Modrak also probably did not play a huge role once Buddy took over as GM in 2010. His biggest impact probably came in the 2006-2009 seasons when Marv and Russ, neither of whom were really scouts. were running the show. If we are to believe various reports that circulated over the years: 2006: Modrak pounded the table for Cutler instead of Whitner 2007: Modrak accurately predicted all of the picks in the top 10 and convinced Marv not to take Poz in the first round, as he believed that Poz would still be available in the 2nd. (The Bills wound up trading up a few spots in the 2nd to secure Poz.) Whereas, Lynch would never make it out of the 1st round. 2008: McKelvin was definitely Modrak's guy in the first round -- but he wanted the Bills to move up in the 2nd to get Jordy Nelson. 2009: Someone at OBD removed Orakpo from consideration as they had a DND (Do Not Draft) policy associated with University of Texas players. Jauron wanted Maybin; Modrak clamored for Brian Cushing. We all know who won that argument.

Interesting that McD himself brought up the term "smoke screen" in regard to all the QB talk. If he really is going to call the shots in the draft room, it could be that he wants to start off his era with the QB of his choosing.

This actually make sense to me -- and I am frankly happy to see that the Bills may finally understand the notion of "value". Scouting, Knowing what the competition is doing and flexibility are all driving factors. In addition to scouting players, it is important to know how all the players are perceived by other teams -- to get a gauge on value. Maybe you are craving a cheeseburger and do not necessarily like lobster -- bust doesn't mean you should pay the going price of lobster for your cheeseburger! How many times over the years have we seen them RACE to the podium with their pick? Almost every year they do that -- and it makes no logical sense. Even if the guy they most covet is still there, why not wait the full allotted time to make sure that another team is not willing to knock off your socks with a trade option? As long as the pick is turned in within the 10-minute limit, no other team can steal it! Also, the team has to be flexible -- and willing to lose out on a player they like if they can get a strong ROI by trading down to get additional picks. I remember the grave mistake Marv made back in 2006. There were multiple teams interested in trading up with the Bills at a time when an extra 2nd round pick would have been great. Instead, he was so worried about maybe losing out on getting D. Whitner... A Plan B (and C) always needs to be in effect. As a hypothetical, let's say the Bills decision-makers like Mahomes the best of all the QBs in this draft class. But based on their research and discussions with various scouts' etc. they realize that most other teams have 2-3 other QBs ranked ahead of Mahomes. Thus, rather than immediately snatching Mahomes up with their first pick (when the other QBs with better "value" are still on the clock), the opportunity to turn that pick into additional picks just may present itself -- and they could very well still get the player (in this fictional case, Mahomes) they wanted at a more appropriate price in addition to more picks.

Or Hank Jr. who was fired for what he said outside the confines of ESPN.

The way I look at it, the Bills are in a pretty good spot picking 10th (as long as they don't do anything foolish). The Bills need to be agile and ready for anything, rather than zeroing in on a specific target. Given the various holes they have, this draft should line up perfectly for them to grab someone that can contribute right away. Also, this draft appears to have quality depth, where there is not much separating the 15th ranked player from, say, the 50th. That is why I would love to trade down and pick up an extra 2nd if the opportunity presents itself. I know everyone has their own rankings, but just a cursory glance of players I would be comfortable with at #10: Garrett Thomas Lattimore Hooker Adams Allen Howard R. Foster H. Reddick Taco Charleton M. Williams C.Davis That is 12 players -- minus any QBs that could go in the top 9. Also, there is always a team in the top 10 that makes a selection out of left field. I would love to see -- if, say, 3-4 of these players are still on the board at 10 -- the Bills trade down with a team like the Titans or Bucs who are supposedly infatuated with Mike Williams.

Lots of nostalgia for the name Kelly -- but given the off-field issues, on-field decision making and injury situation I still think there is a good chance he goes undrafted.

That is why I am expecting an almost over-the-top disciplinarian approach from McD. I am talking Coughlin-like. Mike Tomlin talked about this when he took over as head coach for the Steelers. Tomlin said it was easier to come in as a hard-ass and eventually loosen up some than to do the opposite. I would not be surprised if some high-visibility players are singled out -- and possibly made an example of in one fashion or another.

He is a top-5 overall talent, but I am not sure any GM in a less than solid situation with his team would be willing to pull the trigger on Hooker with a top 10 pick. He could wind up being a real wild card in this draft.

Interesting that he has Kizer as his top QB.

This almost makes me wonder if Holmes was brought in a Easley's replacement. I am still very much on board with targeting Williams/Davis in the 1st.

I was doing some research a few weeks ago to identify the top 5 salaries at each position, since that is how the franchise tag tenders for some players is calculated. In doing so, I noted that the following Bills players have a top 5 salary for 2017 at their respective positions: DT Marcel Dareus OL Cordy Glenn TE Charles Clay RB LeSean McCoy Meanwhile, the Patriots at the time had exactly ZERO players with a top 5 salary in 2017 at their respective positions. More specifically, Tom Brady's $14 M cap hit in 2017 saw him ranked 21st at his position. Both Tannehill and Tyrod (prior to the restructure) were bigger cap hit for this season than Brady! It is hard to compete when New England has this sort of foundation in place and guys on the team willing to drink the kool aide and play for less money to be there. (Even Hightower passed on more money to play for the Jets.) Meanwhile, the Bills have to overpay just to get free agents to come here.

Kelly figures to be a potential wild card in the draft. Polian is probably not far off about his arm talent and how it compares to the other top draft prospects. However, even if we fully dismiss the off-field stuff the fact remains that he had trouble reading defenses and forced a lot of throws in college. That likely places a 2nd round grade on him in normal circumstances. Then there is the off-field stuff, and there is A LOT of it. Enough to probably scare many teams off and to designate him with the DND (Do Not Draft) designation. Finally, there is the knee injury situation. Given all the other baggage, that likely takes Kelly completely off most draft boards. Of course, it only takes ONE team willing to roll the dice, so who knows what will happen.

If Mixon is in free-fall, I could see the Bills rolling the dice with, say, a 3rd round pick. Otherwise, I do not see them drafting a RB in the first 2 days of the draft (if at all).

Huh? In what way is "The net-loss vs. net-gain is not purely based on head count" incorrect? That is 100% correct! For example, losing a high-priced player who is a huge factor for the acquiring team in 2017 versus acquiring a low-cost depth player who may not even make the 2017 squad does not equate to a 1-for-1 wash (meaning no compensatory pick) via the formula.

Oh, I understand how the comp picks work fine, thank you. Obviously you are new around here, so I will be hospitable. :-) Still, since you called me out, I will respond by saying that nothing I referenced in my post is inaccurate. Perhaps you did not understand something I said, so allow me to reiterate: Compensatory picks stem from a formula developed by the NFL Management Council that is based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The compensatory formula only applies to certain free agents.