2003Contenders

Anyone who watched the game yesterday knows exactly why Spiller didn't get more carries. Everytime he touched the ball, he ran laterally and wound up getting virtually no positive yards. At least Fred was plowing ahead for 3 or 4 yards a pop. The problem is that the Steelers loaded up on the run with 8 or 9 guys in the box, and EJ Manuel was unable to get them to back off by completing (or hardly even attempting) any downfield passes. I have been as annoyed with the often unimaginative play calling by Hackett as anyone, by I really think yesterday his hands were tied by a rusty and inexperienced rookie QB going up agianst a really good pass defense that was playing for pride after having been humilated the week before. I got a kick out of how many Bills fans in the forum yesterday were calling for Manuel to be cut and for the Bills to invest a first round pick in April on a different QB. Guess what? Rookie QBs sometimes struggle. Heck, even veteran QBs sometimes struggle. Big Ben did not play much better. Cam Newton, Kaepernick, Romo all played poorly yesterday too. Guess what? Manuel will probably struggle again next week against another stout defense (the Jets). But eventually, he will get a shot at some softer competition -- and we will have 6 more games to see whether or not he evolves and gets better -- or if the gloom-and-doom crowd will be more happy to tell as at season's end that they were "right" than that our team may actually have a potential franchise QB.

It also shows why a team like the Bills should always be in the market to trade down (as long as the compensation in return is good value). The draft is not an exact science -- the more picks the better.

The problem that I have seen with Thad Lewis moreso than any other is his pocket awareness. He is not necessarly slow, but everything he does seems so deliberate that it allows defenses time to load up on him. That is true whether he is rrunning with the ball, waiting for a play to develop or going through his progressions. I am not sure if it is an issue with his mechanics -- or if he has been over-coached to the point that he reacts almost robotically. How this relates to Woods, is that I suspect that Woods has not been the 1st read on most plays -- and Lewis just does not have the time to get to him. In many ways, Manuel has almost the opposite problem -- as his pacing is so frentic that he goes through his reads almost too quickly.

I guess I am not understanding the hand-wringing of folks who are complaining about this move.I think the Cleveland game was an eye-opener about the dangers of having an inexperienced backup QB. Manuel is going to be out for at least another few weeks. So without the signing of Flynn, the only healthy QBs on the roster were Lewis (a guy just elevated from the practice squad) and Tuel (a guy who would have been on the practice squad himself if the Bills were not worried about losing him). There were not many options out there in terms of quality veteran QBs. The Bills took a shot at Josh Freeman, and he elected to sign with the Vikings. They took a long look at Pat White. When it was all said and done, they decided to bring in Matt Flynn, who has been a career backup in Green Bay then Seattle then Oakland -- and now Buffalo. When asked to fill-in, he has mostly done a good job. We will see what happens when EJ gets healthy. Thad has certainly played well enough to maintain the primary backup job. Would the Bills release Flynn at that point -- or move Tuel to the practice squad?

In the glory days this would be a game where the rest of the team would rally. Remember Frank Reich's days -- or Jimbo's final season when the Bills beat the defending Super Bowl champs (Dallas!) with Todd Collins behind center? I also get what the OP was saying (not trying to put words in his mouth). At this point in their respective careers, there may not be much difference between Thad Lewis and EJ Manuel. I love the potential that EJ presents. He has the natural leadership, seems to be a very bright kid -- and he has all the physical tools. However, he entered the league with remedial training at FSU (i.e very "raw") -- and I believe the Bills were even aware that it was going to take some time for him to develop. Playing behind this raw rookie with a dumbed-down playbook the Bills would probably be 3-2 if he hadn't gotten hurt in the Cleveland game. Given the improved health of the defense and the commitment to the running game with multiple able RBs, I have faith that Lewis should be able to perform on a par with what Manuel had demonstrated. Maybe -- just maybe -- it will do Manuel some good to sit and watch from afar for a few weeks. I for one will be interested to see what the offensive game plan looks like with a new QB under center -- one who has at least been in the league (albeit in limited fashion) for more than just a few weeks. Since, his skills are close to E.J.'s, no reason to remove anything from the play book -- and possibly expand it some.

Basically that concussion against Washington ended his NFL career, given the recurring head injuries. The real issue is that the front office did not bring is a serious veteran once he got hurt. No excuse, given that Manuel was nursing the knee injury at the time, too. As much as we all fussed about Fitz, if he is on the team Thursday night, the Bills beat the Browns. Period. The same could possibly even be said about Tarvaris Jackson.

Well, for full disclosure, Mayock was adamant that Dareus was the best player in the draft that year -- and he wants to validate his opinion. That said, MD is certainly starting to shine -- and I think proper coaching has A LOT to do with it.

That was one of the things (to me) that was most impressive about this victory. The Bills had several close calls go against them -- but managed to perservere and not give up. I do believe that all of the reviews were, unfortunately, correct. The only plays that I recall disagreeing with were both on Glenn. The unnecessary roughness call, I thought, was ticky-tack. Also, he was called for a hold on Suggs on a play that looked very clean to me.

I have hopes for Hackett. Everyone that know him says he is smart with a bright future. I applaud the gameplan this week. The offense played a very physical brand of football today. That said, Hackett makes some really frustrating calls during the course of the game. The inept 3-and-out series to begin the 2nd half is a perfect example. He needs to do a better job of devising a sequence of plays that helps to get the offense in rythm. Remember, the coaching staff is itself very young. Perhaps, as Manuel gains experience, he and Hackett will work together to better come up with a better collection (and selection) of plays.

He was great today -- but took questionable penalties. The personal foul, I thought, was weak. The holding call on Suggs was just bogus. Glenn simply dominated his man and drove him to the ground -- nothing illegal about it.

He did not have his best game, but the fumble recovery was a game-saver. EJ also missed him on a couple of screens that would have gone for long gains if placed correctly.

Aaron Williams may just be exhibit A about why Pettrine may very well have been the biggest acqusition that the Bills mad in the off-season. The young man definitely struggled in his first 2 years with the poor DCs that the Bills had on staff. He was all heart today. Heck, even the penalty was a "good" play. The receiver wasn't his man -- he came all the way across the field to make the lunging tackle.

I actually went to the game Saturday and felt when I was there -- really from the get-go -- that the team seemed lethargic pretty much on both offense and defense. The events yesterday, including the QB acquisitions and the news of the "true" nature of Kolb's injury and prognosis in a strange way actually made me feel a bit better than I did when I went to bed Saturday night. 1. I am guessing that the injury to Kolb occurred on that first down scramble he had on the TD drive. He did get kneed in the head there, and even though he was slow to get up seemed OK afterwards, as he did not come off the field and was there to watch CJ score. Frankly, I was more worried about CJ after the knee scare after the TD. Still, Kolb did not return -- and the first quarter was not yet over. At the time, I wondered if perhaps the coaching staff was giving Tuel the opportunity to get some first-team snaps in a real game situation and that perhaps there was an open competition between Kolb and Tuel. I had no idea that Kolb was dealing with concussion symptoms. 2. On Tuel's first drive, he started off with a pretty deep pass to TJ Graham, which Graham unecessarily drew the flag to negate. That penalty ruined the drive as instead of setting them up with a 1st down in Redskins' territory, they were 1st and 20 deep in their own territory. I remember the 3rd and long call was a dump off that had no chance of resulting in a first down. That, as we would see, would be the precursor of things to come. 3. Tuel did lead what should have been a scoring drive on his next drive. At the time the score was 10-7, and a TD there would have put the Bills in the lead. Of course, Stevie was careless with the ball and fumbled there. The offense would not seriously threaten again. 4. I do believe that after Kolb went down, the coaching staff came to the realization that Tuel was the last man up at the QB position. Hence, he was advised (maybe ordered) not to take any serious risks. That would explain all the cheap dumpoffs on 3rd and long plays. Once the game got out of hand in the 2nd half, it was pretty clear that the Bills were trying to hurry the clock along to get out of Dodge in one piece. 5. If my conjecture above is true, then Tuel's performance Saturday cannot be counted against him. Essentially he was serving the role of a long reliever coming into a baseball game in the early innings with a commanding deficit. His role was to run the offense and get them through the game as unscathed as possible. 6. I am not sure that the acquisition of two QBs means anything at all. I think Leinart ostensibly replaces Kolb in the role of veteran journeyman signal caller. The Lewis acquisition could mean any number of things: -- Insurance in case Leinart is not up to the challenge. Remember, he was not even employed prior to yesterday. -- An extra arm in practice to keep Leinart/Tuel fresh -- Insurance in case EJ Manuel is not ready to start the regular season -- Maybe Whaley (or whomever) had admired Lewis from afar and was eager to acquire him now -- Maybe the coaching staff has seen enough of Tuel and are looking for an upgrade

If Milner is there at 8, I expect the Bills to rush to the podium (like they normally do) to draft him.

Fans are fans -- it is pretty universal. Some teams do happen to attract the more die-hard variety (like us Bills fans!). I have worn my colors to multiple away games -- mostly in Baltimore and DC. Games where we won AND lost. Only once did I have to deal with anything other than good-natured ribbing. That was at the Baltimore game back in 2004 when Bledsoe tossed 4 INTs (one of which was returned for a TD by Deion). I happened to be wearing a Bledsoe jersey that game and some little dude -- all of 5'2" -- harassed me all the way to my car after the game. I think he was just trying to act tough, expecting surrounding Ravens fans to help him out if I should decide to clock him. I just ignored him -- other Raven fans told him to STFU. As a witness, my favorite incident I observed was at a Monday night game in Washington a few years back. The Skins were hosting the Cowboys, and there was a Cowboy fan there in full heel mode. He kept walking up and down the aisle ripping Redskin fans. Some of the stuff the guy was saying was hilarious -- reminded me of Johnny Fairplay or Jim Cornett. By halftime, he had incited so many fans that the ushers forced him to leave. With him went my greatest entertainment for the night!

I think you may parsing words a bit here. I think what Buddy was initially saying is that almost every year -- whether it be a "good" year for rookie QBs or a "bad" year -- there are going to be a couple of guys who become franchise players. I don't think he necessarily had two guys in mind at that time. The "2 or 3" comment he made yesterday was more or less a confirmation of his earlier comment -- with additional information about all of the top QBs in this year's draft. That is to say that at this point he and the scouts have narrowed their focus to the 2 (or 3) guys that he feels has the best chance to be one of those potential franchise QBs. Regardless, it is fun to guess which QBs the team may have liked best going in -- and which one may have jumped out at them. I think one of the guys they REALLY liked going in was Barkley. Nix likes guys with leadership and experience at the QB position. He also likes guys who are accurate and anticipate well. That is Barkley. I also think Marrone likes him. The question is whether or not he has the arm strength to stand up in Buffalo. I agree that Nassib would have been the other choice. Here is one guy that seems to fit the offense they want to run, already KNOWS the offense, and a player about whom they already have a wealth of information. In fact, all of the other QB looks may have been a poorly veiled attempt to throw other teams off the scent -- or it could have been an effort to see if they could talk themselves out of drafting him. Along those line, it could be that they have fallen in love with another QB's upside over the polish of Nassib and Barkley. Call it a hunch, but for some reason I really do not get the sense that the Bills are all that interested in Geno. (Marrone saw plenty of him up close up and could not have been impressed in those games against SU.) EJ is a possibility, as you suggest. Nix and company have shown a tendency to place a great deal of stock in the Senior Bowl -- and Manuel definitely looked the best there. There are a few other guys with big upside that could be very intriguing. I thought it interesting that he chose to cite Kaep and Wilson as kids he wished he had not passed on -- rather than, say, Andy Dalton. Manuel could fit that mold. So might Mike Scott. There are also guys like Glennon, Landry Jones and Bray who have big arms and may be available in the 3rd or 4th round. I think we can book it that the Bills will draft a QB at SOME point in this draft. Will it be at 8? Will they trade back or up into the end of the 1st round? Will they wait and see who is still on the board at 41? Or will that seriously draft BPA and draft their top rated QB in the middle rounds. Whatever thy decide to do, rest assured that they will insist that they got one of the "2 or 3" guys Nix mentioned. If they go that route, I will guess it is Glennon.

A few things... 1. First, this is a well-written and thoughtful article, but the author is trying to make a point and as such somewhat skews the data in the favor of the point that he is making. He gets around this by referring to the "hypothetical" Kolb versus the "actual" one. The hypothetical Kolb is the one that he COULD be if the circumstances were more ideal as opposed to and unattainable being. 2. Kolb only has 21 starts -- or a little under a full year's worth. Thus, the data can be heavily skewed by one or two really bad games in which he was sacked a ton. That is exactly what happened in his final 2-3 games as a Cardinal. Really, the Cardinals 2012 season turned two weeks before they played the Bills when they played a heavy-blitzing Dolphins defense. Even though the Cardinals won that game, the Dolphins provided a blueprint on how to thwart the Cardinals and their over-matched offensive line (which also failed to get anything resembling a running game going). The next week the 4-0 Cardinals went up against heavily blitzing Rams defense. Kolb never had a chance in that game and took a beating. In those 2 games, Kolb was sacked a whopping 17 times.The next week when he played the Bills -- well, anyone who saw that game had to have seen that he rarely even had time to set and plant his feet. Actually, I was impressed by his toughness in that game. For a guy not known for his mobility, he managed to escape a number of jailbreaks and wound up rushing for about 70 yards. Getting back to my point, those 17 sacks came in 2 games. Kolb was sacked a grand total of 10 times in the other 4 games. For his Arizona career, Kolb was sacked a total of 57 times in 15 games. Again, 17 of them came in 2 games. Hence, he was sacked 40 times in the other 13 games behind a terrible Arizona OL -- roughly 3 sacks per game. In those 2 sack-happy games, he dropped back to pass 125 times. Thus, his sack rate in those 2 terrible outings was an eye-popping 21.6%. In his other 13 games with Arizona, he dropped back to pass a total of 378 times; his sack rate was a much more manageable 10.6%. Oh, wait -- that is the same 10.6% that he averaged in Philly prior to the trade to Arizona! 3. Now, let's talk about the sack disparity between Kolb and the other Arizona QBs. For the sake of this discussion, I will compare Kolb to John Skelton, who was the primary "other" Quarterback and who played an almost identical number of snaps to Kolb in 2011/2012 -- and who was supposedly chosen (over Kolb) to be the starter heading into 2012. While, it may be true that Skelton took fewer sacks, let's look at their productivity: Player Games Atts Comps Yards Yards/Comp Comp% TD Ints Kolb 15 436 255 3124 7.165 58.5 17 11 Skelton 15 476 260 3045 6.397 54.6 13 23 Clearly, Kolb was superior in every aspect. More yards, high completion percentage, more TD passes, fewer INTs. Regarding the sack "disparity", well, in his first game as a starter after Kolb went down last season, Skelton was sacked 7 times. Hence the sack issues that plagued the Cardinals in that 4 game stretch -- the 27 I alluded to in the Miami and St. Louis games, the 5 against the Bills, and the 7 the following week against the Vikings -- were clearly a team-wide epidemic. The Cardinals must have done something to solve the problem, as Skelton was only sacked 6 times in his other 4 appearances in 2012. So it is unfair -- and even lazy on the part of anyone who tries to compare Kolb to Rob Johnson, who (as we all know) had 0% instincts in the pocket.) I am not saying that Kolb is the second coming. I also do believe that he takes too many sacks (even 10.6% is not very good) -- but at one point Andy Reid (who knows a thing or two about QBs) thought enough of him to invest a high 2nd round pick on him. Thought enough of him to trade away Donovan McNabb so that Kolb could start. Thought enough of him to award him the starting job out of training camp (in 2010) after competing with Michael Vick for the starting job. The Cardinals as recently as 2011 thought enough of him to trade away a high 2nd rounder PLUS a recent first round draft pick to acquire him. He may not be the long-term solution, but if the offensive line can keep him standing, I believe that he is a certain upgrade over Fitz. That should be good enough to keep the starting job until a ready-for-prime-time rookie option comes along.

Like Marv Levy?

Going back to the days of Wade, with their first pick in the draft, the Bills have always drafted a player on the side of the ball for which the new coach had built his reputation. 1998. Wade Phillips, former defensive coordinator. The Bills drafted linebacker Sam Cowart. Now, this was actually a 2nd round pick, but the team had traded away their first rounder for (gulp!) Rob Johnson. 2001. Gregg Williams, former defensive coordinator. The Bills traded down a few spots in the first round and drafted CB Nate Clements. 2004. Mike Mularkey, former offensive coordinator. The Bills drafted WR Lee Evans and traded back into the 1st round again for QB J.P. Losman. 2006. Dick Jauron, former defensive coordinator. The Bills drafted DB Donte Whitner and traded back into the 1st round for DT John McCargo. 2010. Chan Gailey, former offensive coordinator. The Bills drafted RB C.J. Spiller. Now, in 2013, and we have former offensive coordinator D. Marrone as our new head coach. If the pattern continues that would suggest QB, WR, OL, or TE. (I am leaving RB off, as I can't believe that even the Bills' font office would be foolish enough to go that route.) Possibly with a trade BACK into the 1st round to address two of these positions. Hmmm.

If they are going to take an OL in the first round, I would rather that they draft a legitimate LT (Like Fisher if he is there) and then move Glenn inside. Could have an OL loaded with Pro Bowlers. Nassib would be a no-brainer in the 2nd round.

I also think that the Bills' front office as a whole is in single-minded "Find-a-rookie-QB" mode.

I still wonder if the plan isn't to move Glenn to LG and then acquire a top LT via free agency or the draft.

No one wants to say this, but it simply could be that the guy just is not very bright.

Maybe the most lucid post I have read in some time. Some quick thoughts: 1. For a good team, Fitz would be the perfect backup. On a bad team like the Bills, he is a below-average starter. Still, excellent -- even better than decent -- NFL QBs do not grow on trees. There are 10-12 other teams in the NFL in a similar situation who would like to find an improvement to their existing starter. The biggest problem with Fitz is that he played for a dim-witted coach who chose to design an offensive system which highlighted his obvious weaknesses rather than marginalizing them. 2. The TJAX signing confirms what I had suspected all of last year. Chan was not involved in Jackson's acquisition -- and chose to keep him sidelined all season long rather than give him a shot at the backup (let alone the starting) position. Obviously the front office guys who liked him last year (Nix, Whaley, Brandon) still like him. We will find out eventually whether Chan was right or if the executives were right. 3. I do not see that the TJax signing changes the landscape very much in terms of the team's future plans at the QB position. Fitz is not the long term solution, but he MAY (make that probably WILL) be the starter in 2013. Recall that when the season ended, he was the ONLY QB on the roster. As it stands now, there is a good chance that both QBs make the final roster. There is also a good chance that Jackson is a roster cut if Marrone and his staff come to the same conclusion that Chan did about him. If Jackson outshines Fitz, which is not impossible since both QBs will start on a level playing field learning a new offense, there certainly is a possibility that Fitz himself gets cut. Regardless, the Bills will need to acquire at least one more QB -- and possibly two if one of these guys gets cut. They very well could still draft a QB in the first round if they see someone they really like.

In the department of leaving no stone unturned, I do not see why OBD would not at least take a look at the kid. See if they can find out all the facts, talk to him etc. If he has any interest at all in playing in the NFL, you would think he would be on his best behavior. We all know that some other team -- whether it is the Bills or whomever -- is going to take a chance on him. If he becomes a problem for that team and is sent packing, his career is over. Even if he is too dumb/arrogant to understand that, I am sure his agent will make that fact very clear to him.