2003Contenders

Some random thoughts about Fitz... 1. His inconsistency is maddening, and I simply cannot put my finger on the cause/solution. Accuracy is certainly an issue. But we have seen many instances where he can thread the needle -- and throw it on a rope between defenders. Clearly the long ball isn't his strength, but he he has often been inaccurate on too many short passes (screens included) as well. His errors tend to be more physical errors than mental ones, as reading defenses IS a strength. On a related note, his biggest strength is with is pre-snap reads and knowing where to go with the ball quickly. That is a big reason why the Bills were among the league leaders in fewest sacks allowed this year. I think part of what happened this year is that the defense was so bad that he often felt COMPELLED to score on every possession, which led to too many negative plays. 2. He certainly does not have elite arm strength, but it is adequate. As I alluded to above, the deep ball is NOT a strength of his. But I do not think it is a matter of arm strength. As often as he under-threw receivers, he also over-threw them. Since he does not have an elite arm (a la Rogers, Cutler, Stafford or Vick), he cannot get away with poor mechanics. That is, poor footwork is often a culprit of bad passes from Fitz as was best exemplified by those 2 INTs he threw in the Giants game. 3. He was not helped by play calling or supporting cast. It is not a coincidence that Fitz's fortunes started fading at the time that injuries to the surrounding players on offense revealed just how thin the roster is. I know many here are unhappy with Stevie -- and what he did in the season finale was just plain foolish -- but the Buffalo Bills are NOT going to be a better team if they allow him to leave. I liked what I saw from Hagan Sunday, and I wonder if he could be a player like Brandon Lloyd who suddenly figures it out after several years in the league. The possibility of Easley making it onto the field in 2012 intrigues me, but he has yet to play a down in a real NFL game. Roscoe is probably a goner. As a WR3, David Nelson is fine; but he doesn't belong on the outside. Donald Jones and N. Roosevelt both needed to be upgraded. Since Chan is so stuck on running these multi-WR sets, it is imperative that the Bills have depth at the position. I would like to see the Bills re-sign Stevie AND bring in another WR in the off-season. Chandler was a revelation at TE this year, and the Bills can certainly get by with him. But I do have to wonder how much better the offense would be with an elite guy like Gronkowski there. It wouldn't hurt Chan to take a page out of the Patriots' playbook and run multi-TE sets with Chandler and a another quality pass-catching TE at the helm. Of course, if they take care of the WR position, Nelson can function in that role as a slot WR too. Getting back to the play calling, I am worried that Chan is starting to get Kevin Gilbriditis. Like Chan, Gilbride has been a successful OC here (at least in 2002) and elsewhere. He certainly deserves some credit for what the Giants have done in recent years. However, he sometimes INSISTS on throwing the ball when it just doesn't make good sense -- just like Chan. With SJ benched, Chandler out of the game and the OL fortified (valiantly) with numerous back-ups, you would have thought that Chan would focus more on the running game once the Bills took a 21-point lead. 4. Not sure there is help on the horizon. There are probably about 10 starting QBs in the league that I would rather have than Fitz right now, and there about an equal number of QBs in the league to whom I believe that he is undoubtedly superior currently. I would say that he ranks somewhere in the 13-18 range at QB -- or, in other words, he is an average starter. Now, there are currently a number of positions that are woefully below average (especially WR2 and LB/DE). Getting an elite QB trumps all else, and I would hope that the front office heads into next season with the same mind-set that they did last year. That is, they can survive with Fitz, but if a franchise QB falls to them, then they HAVE to take him. Alas, those guys do not grow on trees. They are not going to be able to get Luck -- and probably not RG3 either. What I do hope they do differently than last year is that if a high risk/high reward guy like Mallet happens to be there for the taking (as he was as late as the 3rd round last year), then they should pull the trigger. Even if it takes him a year or 2 to develop, the Bills have the luxury of being patient with adequacy at the position with Fitz. At least that is my 2 cents...

Dueling banjos

When Marv stepped in as GM in 2006, it really wasn't to replace Donahoe. After all, Donahoe had been the true decision maker for the Bills and had developed a reputation as an autocrat by the time he was let go after the 2005 season. To drive the point home that Marv was a delegate rather than a dictator he ran those 2 drafts that he oversaw on a consensus basis. The idea was to draft players that everyone could live with rather than a player that some in the room were opposed to taking. When the Bills were on the clock back in April of 2006, there were some in the room who wanted Jay Cutler. Some wanted H. Ngata. Some wanted B. Bunkley. Some wanted him to trade down as there were reportedly offers on the table from both the Eagles and Eagles. Whitner was a guy that everyone in the room could live with. While his upside was limited, he had a very low risk of being a bust. He was and is a good player -- but he never lived up to the status of having been the #8 player taken in the draft. Safeties drafted that high are expected to be like Ed Reed -- not merely good players. We complain around here a lot about all of the first round busts -- and certainly have been plenty of them. However, too many of our first rounders -- Winfield, Nate, Willis, Whitner, and Lynch -- all wind up playing on different teams. It's like the Bills know that they can draft RBs and DBs well, so they never try to keep them. That is why they are never in the process of building a team that has any sort of staying power.

I am surprised that no one here complained about Gailey's stubborn over-use of Tashard Choice. Rarely does anything good happen when he steps on the field.

The Bills need to re-sign Stevie AND draft a WR (not necessarily in the 1st round).

Anyone who doesn't recognize that Stevie should be re-signed... well, I don't want to listen to what you have to say about football or the state of the Bills for more than a minute. The issue is that SJ needs a reliable compliment at the WR position. That should help Fitz too -- although, Fitz's maddening inconsistency must be addressed as well.

I don't know what it is -- but Fitz is clearly lost right now.

What is the fastest way to improve the football team? Look at the players who are terrible -- and find upgrades for them. That is why I am more focused on finding better OLBs, DL, CBs, OL, and WRs. And, when I am talking about upgrades at WR, I am talking about Jones/Roosevelt rather than Steve Johnson, who is a good receiver. Fitz is not elite -- but he is certainly adequate. I would rather replace the players that are less than adequate. Once we get to the point where our team is loaded with adequate or better players, then we can start talking about upgrading them.

If you do a root analysis, the end result you will come up with is that the team simply is too lacking in talent from position 1 to 53. This truth was highlighted once the injuries started mounting, as the depth on this team is simply terrible. That has forced Chan to panic in terms of his usual play calling. It has also caused Fitz to press. Now, whose fault is it for the dearth in talent? Well, it is pretty simple, really. In 2001 the team had a brand new (Donahoe) regime pretty much from top to bottom. In 2003 a new head coach was brought in with a different philosophy on offense than the prior regime. So, while the defense didn't change much in his 2-year tenure, the offense was overhauled. In 2006, there was another entire regime change (Levy/Jauron) -- and both offense and defense were drastically overhauled. The GM duties for the next 3-4 years were handled by men who were not even qualified for the position, and the head coach was a buffoon who was inexplicably given way too much latitude in making personnel decisions. In 2010 yet another brand new regime (Nix/Chan) was brought in with differing philosophies on offense as well as defense. Only a player or 2 remain from the Donahoe era. There are remarkably few held over from the Jauron/Levy era. The nucleus of the team is made up of middling free agents and players who were drafted (or picked up as UDFA) by the current regime. I have written elsewhere that I believe that Tom Modrak bares the brunt of blame for the poor drafts from 2002 thru 2010. He was let go after this year's draft and reportedly had very little say in the decisions that were made this last April. Considering that his 2002-2010 tenure was book-ended by 2 quality drafts in 2001 and (so far) 2011 of which he had little or no participation, I do not believe it is a stretch to place the burden of blame on him for those poor drafts during his time as chief college scout. Thus, an argument could be made that the true impact of the current collection of talent really started THIS year. Let's give the current regime some time. Continuity is a good thing. It starts with retaining most of the coaching staff -- although, I can certainly see canning George Edwards -- and the front office. Then it moves toward player retention. Not every player has to be a stud, so it IS important to retain guys that are solid football players. A key example, of course, is Steve Johnson. No, he isn't Larry Fitzgerald -- but he is a quality starting WR in the NFL. Imagine if the team were smart enough to retain him AND seek an upgrade either via the draft or free agency for the other starting WR position?

Just wish Williams could stay healthy.

Where was the obvious holding on that?

I think McIntyre drew the flag when he raised in arms in the air -- making him look guilty.

I think the entire team looked flat in those 3 blowouts. In particular, Fitz gets a pass from me in that Miami game, where he had to worry on every play whether or not Levitre could get him the ball. He looked great last week -- let's see if he's got his mojo back.

Here's the deal. Maybin is a one-trick pony, an undersized pass rusher with a great initial burst off the line who lacks the strength to do any in-fighting. When given an unimpeded shot at the QB, he can get there. Occasionally when matched up against a TE, RB, or inferior OT he may be able to get around them for the sack. The Jets know this, and they have placed him in a perfect situation to maximize his limited skill set. They do not need him to be a core defensive player for them, because they already have a quality, established defense. The Bills REALLY needed a core defensive player when they drafted Maybin -- and after 2 full seasons and a 3rd off-season, they came to the conclusion that he was never going to evolve into an every-down defender. Do I think that the Bills would be better off with him over a guy like Danny Batten? Yes. However, the evaluation by OBD was also one of value. Did it make more sense to keep a guy like Batten, who is making a shade over the league minimum salary -- or a guy like Maybin, who is one of the highest paid players on the team?

Probably not -- and this isn't the best time to be making that argument, given that they may be coming off their worst performance of the year. In fact, the loss of Fred and insertion of Spiller and (ouch!) Choice into the lineup yesterday served to illustrate just what a superior back that Fred is. The OL got very little push up front -- and on that final drive when the Jets knew they had to pass, they got plenty of pressure on Fitz. I will say that the OL deserves credit for playing hard and trying to make their best of a very unenviable situation. Three of the five spots on the line were manned by backups yesterday. But there certainly are deficiencies that have been masked by play calling, Fitz's ability to get of the ball quickly and Fred's ability to gain positive yardage with little room.

I am willing to give Nix a slight pass on that 2010 draft, as I am not sure how much he was actually involved in the process that early on. There was a certain someone who was a major influence on that draft and was let go after the 2011 draft (of which he complained about having little influence). It will be interesting to see how well the team drafts going forward. As for the original question about weak drafts versus coaching/player development, I think there are other factors equally at play here. 1. The Bills front-line players are actually pretty good (with the exception of quality DEs and OLBs). That helps to explain the 3-0 start (when they were mostly healthy) and recent woes as injuries have started to mount. Dealing with injuries is a problem for all 32 teams; the Bills lack the depth to overcome this. 2. There has certainly been problems from a scouting perspective -- and in improperly assessing the existing state of affairs. For example, the team placed WAY to much faith in Merriman's ability to return to being the force he once was in San Diego. Clearly, they went into the draft believing that OLB was not a position that needed upgrading. Now they have 0 decent OLBs and are trying to play guys out of position. 3. Lack of continuity has been a major problem. The transition from Jauron's variation of the Tampa-2 toward a 3-4 model is about as extreme as could be. Chan is one of those guy who as an OC understands the importance of shifting his schemes to best accommodate his players. It's a shame that he didn't hire an equally adept DC. I understand that a coach can only do so much with the players that he has to work with... but any scheme devised by a coach who would place Spencer Johnson in a situation in which he must contain speedy rushers from getting to the outside is just BAD.

Excellent point, and it does somewhat shoot holes in the "Ralph is Cheap!" crowd. Well maybe not. Ralph has simply never understood the importance of spending money on his coaches, scouting and front office folks -- but is willing to spend top dollar on 2nd (or 3rd) rate players! One thing that has always bugged me is that at the press conference announcing his hiring, Chan made it a point to emphasize that the DC he was going to hire was not going to be a household name. Then it took a number of weeks to find such a guy in George Edwards. Why would Chan, an offensive coach by trade, want to hire a DC who wasn't a top notch choice? Clearly, he was given parameters on how much he could spend on a DC. The Bills are saddled with goons who: 1. Do a poor job of player scouting (drafts and free agency) 2. Do a poor job of player development (coaching) 3. Have trouble keeping the players healthy (conditioning) I really find it hard to believe that Ralph is himself such a meddler, but I suspect that he lets his bean counters dictate too much of what happens at OBD. I call this penny wise and pound foolish on Ralph's part. A consistently competitive football team would generate much more revenue than the foolish penny pinching saves.

I have been wondering the same thing, too. Rich Gannon kept commenting on that all game, even on the somewhat successful first drive. He kept saying that if Fitz had to continuously worry about getting a clean snap, that it would severely interfere with his ability to run the offense. What REALLY bothered me is that Gannon said in pre-game interviews, Fitz and Levitre admitted that there was a problem. The fact that this was a known issue heading into the game and that Chan STILL insisted on rolling with it after it was clearly failing, is unconscionable. I have been a big supporter of Chan's all year, but he just seems like a defeated man. The swagger that was there early on when the expectation to win seems to be gone. I know the injuries have taxed the shallow depth that was on this team, and that he deep down has to know that he is heading into each game with an under-manned crew. However, I just do not like this loser/bullied mentality that has over taken this team.

For all the complaining about the defense, they have actually played pretty well for the last couple of quarters. If the offense could have finished some drives today...

While I agree with some of what you are saying, I would actually start Chris Kelsay at DE ahead of either Edwards or (especially) Johnson. He gets a lot of heat around here, but at least he has the ability to consistently provide pressure, which I believe he would be freed up to do with both Williams and Dareus on hand to command double-teams. Of course, this all depends on Williams making a full recovery. I am still a bit worried about the mysterious nature of his injury. The Bills clearly need to make a move in the off-season to upgrade the OLB position, regardless of what scheme they use. I think we can pretty much forget about Merriman. If he is able to make a full recovery, then that is gravy. However, I think one of the flaws of this off-season was placing too much faith in Merriman's ability to make a return this year. Nix said repeatedly heading into the draft that they felt that they were in good shape at OLB; clearly he was counting on Merriman being a force. As for the ILB position, they will need to address that too, since Barnett is no spring chicken. I am eager to see how Shep plays down the stretch. Will he be a fixture at ILB/MLB -- or will he just be a depth guy? Safety play has been exceptional. I think Wilson and Byrd form one of the best tandems in the league, and Scott provides very good depth. I want to see what Aaron Williams brings to the table in these final games. I also want to see what McGee looks like from here on out to evaluate whether he still has enough left in the tank to consider keeping him. I am actually OK with Leodis for now. I know he is a favorite whipping boy around here, and his ball-playing skills are very bad at times. However, he is actually a VERY good cover corner; it's just that those big plays where he fails to come away with an INT or knock the ball down tend to be so magnified. Personally, I have seen enough from D. Florence, who either gets beat or commits a foolish penalty way too often. Bottom line is that one way or another, the team needs to acquire another CB. (Slightly off-topic) Assuming that little or nothing is done in free agency, I would rank the Bills' draft needs as follows: OLB (need an impact player) WR (need a quality starter opposite Stevie; Nelson is fine in the slot) CB (even if Aaron Williams looks great, can never have enough quality CBs) OL (at least for depth) QB (need a developmental QB) TE (Chandler is OK, but depth is necessary) DL (Again, depth. Also, need some insurance for K Williams -- and I am not liking what I see from Troup) ILB/MLB (At least for depth; potential replacement for Barnett)

Yea, looking at it week-to-week is not a good way to gauge things. It should be obvious that the top QB in the division is Brady by a mile. I would rank Fitz second. Sanchez remains the luckiest man in professional sports to have a job; he is surrounded by unbelievable talent and is only asked NOT to do anything foolish game in and game out. I would rather have Fred Jackson than Greene/LT but the rest of the Jets' offensive players are man-for-man as good as or better than the Bills' at every other position. Meanwhile, Moore is just a place-holder until the Dolphins find a new QB in 2012.

Do you guys really think Ralph has anything to do with the day-to-day goings on with the Bills for the past couple of years?

Here is the thing... Obviously Chan likes running multi-WR sets. So doesn't it stand to reason that to run these 4 (and sometimes 5) WR packages, you would want to have multiple quality receivers? It is imperative that the Bills keep Stevie AND find a suitable 2nd WR (either via the draft or free agency) as well. I am happy with Nelson in his current role, but the Bills need a speedster opposite Stevie to stretch defenses -- someone who sees the ball in the air and says, "That is MINE!" Like him or not, Stevie is a quality receiver. No, he doesn't deserve Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald money. However, he is a decent middle-tier WR1 and deserves to be paid accordingly. I think it is fair to rank him in the same category as, say, an A. Boldin or S. Holmes. It shouldn't break the bank to retain him AND sign another quality WR too.

I hate to say it, but I really think that Rex and the Jets took some of Chan and the Bills' mojo away. It was almost like they were bullied into submission. (Think "Water Boy" and Henry Winkler's being terrified of Jerry Reed.) Thanks to an inept QB, the Jets managed to allow the Bills to stay around in the football game until the 2nd half. However, the Bills did NOTHING on offense and really didn't even try anything creative. Even the Wildcat (which I am not a fan of -- but at least would have been something different) was never utilized. The beat-down had a lingering effect as we saw last week in Dallas. The game against the Dolphins this week now becomes the most important game in the Chan/Nix era. If they can travel down to South Florida and rediscover their mojo, then they just may be able to get back on track. Remember a rematch against the Jets the following week awaits. Hopefully then someone can sit Chan down and convince him to imagine that Rex's head is that of a baby...

There is a reason why Rob Ryan has had trouble keeping a job. Still, I really wish that Chan would have hired a top DC when he took over, rather than an inexperienced guy like Edwards. An offensive-minded head coach really needs to have a top drawer DC. When I saw that they had brought in Dave Wanny in the off-season I had high hopes. Of course, who knows how much input he really has? Also, the truth of the matter is that the Bills simply do not have the horses they need right now, so I am not sure how much coaching at any level would help this sad state of affairs with the defense. I am troubled by the quantity of draft picks that have been invested to help the defense the past 2 years -- and the lack of any immediate return.