2003Contenders

That is so much easier said than done. I keep hearing this, but let's take a moment and do 2 things. First let's look at how many frnachise QBs there really are in the NFL right now. Within our own division Brady is the only one. Tannehill may evolve, but right now I would have to say that Fitz may very well be the 2nd best QB in our division. Looking at the league as a whole, here are the guys that I would call true frnachise QBs: Tom Brady Ben Roethlisberger Peyton Manning Eli Manning Aaron Rodgers Drew Brees I count 6 of them. Now, there are a couple more that I think are close -- and are certainly guys who I would rather have over Fitz: Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Philip Rivers Tony Romo Matt Stafford Cam Newton Stafford and Newton may even be pushing it a bit, as both are coming off one big year and have struggled some this year. Certainly from a talent perspective, they are franchise QBs. I have liked what I have seen from Luck and RG3 so far, but it is still too early to tell. So I count 6 franchise QBs, 6 who are close -- and 2-3 where the team is trying to figure out whether they have one or not. That means that half of the teams in the NFL are in the same boat as the Bills -- on the lookout for an upgrade at the position. Oh, and when you factor in that all of the 6 elite QBs I referenced have been in the league for 8+ years -- well their respective teams are on the lookout for heir apparants as well. Now, the second question I have... Many people on this board seem to believe that the Bills really have not even TRIED to upgrade the QB position. That simply is not true. Where exactly could and should they have upgraded? Really, since Kelly left -- and going back thru prior adminstrations -- the front office HAS tried: John Butler 1. Drafted Todd Collins, who turned out to be a career backup 2. Made the trade for Billy Joe Tolbert, who had a big arm but a two-cent brain 3. Brought in Doug Flutie. That turned out to be a positive move, as it was the last time that the team made it to the playoffs. However, Flutie was long in the tooth and it did not take defenses long to devise solid game plans against him. 4. Made the big trade for Rob Johnson, which was ballsy but clearly a poor choice. Tom Donahoe 1. Made the big trade for Drew Bledsoe. For half a season that looked like a GREAT trade. Bledsoe actually brought some credibility to Western New York, and that credibility even aided Donahoe in signing some big defensive free agents in th next off-season. But Bledsoe rolled over the hill FAST. 2. Offered to trade away multiple picks to move up in the 2004 draft for Roethlisberger. However, none of the teams picking in the top 10 would bite. When he missed out on that trade he pacicked, and (with Sam Wyche whipering in his ear after having been wowed by private workouts), made the questionable decision to trade away the #1 pick in 2005 and the #2 pick that year (plus, I believe an additional late-round pick) to move up to get Losman. Obvioulsy that was a mistake. Who knows how the draft board may have changed, but a certain Aaron Rodgers would have been on the board for the Bills' 1st round pick, which went to Dallas, in 2005. Losman never worked out; he simply never learned to read a defense and was not much better than Rob Johnson in terms of getting the ball out of his hand quickly. If e could take the best characteristics of Losman (big arm and nice touch on the deep ball) and combine them with Fitz's best attributes, it would be just what the doctor ordered. 3. When Donahoe unceremonioulsy gave Dre his walking papers, he replaced him with journeyman Kelly Holcomb. Emphasis on the word journeyman. Marv Levy 1. Eschewed the chance to draft Jay Cutler and instead decided to give JP one more shot. Cutler would have been an upgrade -- but he would not have been the long term answer either. He has more talent but is as inconsistent as Fitz -- and far less likeable. A year later they spent a late 3rd rounder on Trent Edwards. He had his moments -- but just never developed the art of throwing the ball BEFORE his receiver came out of the break. Captain Checkdown. 2. This was after Levy left, but since Jauron was still around and there was no real GM, I consider it part of the same adminsitration. But the front office tried to get Michael Vick -- and rumor has it that they were very close to doing so, when "someone" intervened and made thepsuh for him to go to Philly. Buddy Nix Now, the current regime has made all of the following moves: 1. Made a serious push to trade for Donovan McNabb, but McNabb chose to play in Washington instead and the Eagles' accomodated him. 2. Reportedly tried to trade up for Tebow. The front office denied this attempt, so who knows if it is true? Instead, they waited until the 7th round and drafted Levi Brown, who failed to make the final roster. The team brough him back later when injuries kicked in, but he was never able to stick. 3. Gave Trent Edwards one last shot to start -- and ended up releasing him after 3 games into the season. 4. Acquired Brad Smith as a Wildcat QB. The only pass I remember him throwing was intercepted, so I do not even truly consider him a QB. 5. Acquired Tyler Thigpen who had familiarity with Chan's pistol offense in KC. He has yet to see any serious action and renotiated his contract in the off-season to avoid being cut. 6. Brough in Vince Young, who struggled to pick up the offense. 7. Traded for Tarvaris Jackson, who has yet to be active in a single game since signing with the Bills. jackson did at least lead the Seahawks to a playoff berth 2 years ago. So clearly, the team has not sat back and ignored the position. Just since Buddy and Chan took over 2 1/2 years ago they have made 7 moves (or near moves). You could make the argument that they could have drafted Joe Flacco in 2008 instead of Maybin, but there were some questions about Flacco coming out and many thought the Ravens reached for him at the time by taking im in the middle of the first round. Josh Freeman was there for the taking in 2009, but aside from a strong 2010 season has looked awful. The QB class from 2010 looks terrible; Bradford may stick, but Tebow, Clausen, McCoy... The team was right to pass on those guys. (Too bad they wasted that 2nd rounder on Troup.) Last year they hoped that Cam would afll to them, but he didn't. They though long and hard about Gabbert -- and thus far appear to have been smart about letting him go. I suppose they COULD have drafted Andy Dalton, but I do not see much upside there. I do not see him as a long-term upgrade over Fitz. Serviceable but hardly a franchise QB. This year Luck was as good as gone before the 2011 regular season was over. Look what it cost the Redskins to move up a few spots to get RG3!

Well said. As glad as I was to be shed of Jauron, I will have to say that he knew how to get more from less. The only problem is that he was such a poor judge of talent (I refuse to blame Modrak for ALL of the bad draft choices) that he was ALWAYS trying to do more with less. His philosophy was to keep it close and try to win it in the 4th quarter. Seems like the Bills lost a lot of close games during his time here. Maybe a couple of weeks away from Orchard Park against a couple of unfamiliar teams will help this team get its mojo back. For all the fears about the 49ers, I actually think the Bills match up well against them. When playing a normal base D, I think they stop the running game -- and I am not too worried abiut Alex Smith torching them. The offense has shown that it can score pretty much against everybody. The concern is going to be that the Niners run defense is going to most likely stifle FJax and Spiller again. Fitz is going to have to avoid the big mistakes -- and realize that sometimes a punt is OK.

I am sure the Jets and Pats fans at least are giving him a 100% rating.

Here is the thing. I really think it comes down to the fact that the Pats own the Bills -- and the Bills know it. That starts at the coaching level and goes all the way down to the players. So, instead of trying to play their game and dictate the tone of the game, the coaches fall into the trap of believeing that they have to do "special" things to attack the Pats. They over-think themselves and place the players in inenviable positions. You could see countless times yesterday where the safeties (George Wilson in particular) seemed to be perplexed by the defensive formations -- and as a result became confused. The intonic thing is that the Pats really do not do anything extradorinary to beat the Bills. For Brady, it really is a simple matter of trying to locate the open receiver. When he saw them in a nickel or dime formation he simply audibled to a run. The Bills would have been much better off sticking with their base 4-3 defense throughout the game. Now, the inability of the front four to apply consistent pressure -- that is where the pysche and performance of the individual players comes into play. Mario Williams in particular needs to decide whether he is simply happy that he just got paid -- or whether he wants to earn that money. At least with Kelsay, who is nowhere nearly as talented, he gives it his all on every play. Regardless of what the coaches do, the players need to stand up and be accountable. The is a team that really needs a Ray Lewis type, who has the cajones to get in the face of his teammates and demand their best. They need a leader that stands up and says, "Those Patriots are not coming into our house and embatrassing us!" Someone should have taken issue with the rubbing-their-nose-in-it field goal -- and taken their frustrations out on Brady. Even if it meant a 15-yard penalty. This team is missing that kind of mean streak -- and has for a long time. Believe it or not, I actually believe that the next 2 games (despite playing teams that are a combined 7-1) actually presents the Bills with a favorable situation. They will in all liklihood revert to the base defense that played well enough the last 2 weeks. That was the defense that was effective at stopping the run -- and placed the opponent in known down and distance. Alex Smith and Kevin Kolb have both been better than competent this year, but neither can carry their respective team if the defense does what it i supposed to. Both the Niners and Cardinals have fine defenses, but the Bills offense has at least shown that it is capable of moving the ball and scoring -- even when they have struggled for periods of time. If I were Chan I would have them fly out to the West Coast -- and stay there until after the the Cardinals game in 2 weeks. Then, if they manage, to upset both NFC West teams, they will return home with some grit in their bellies.

If I had more confidence in our CBs then I would advocate blitzing more.

If the Bills beat the Pats next week, they will suddnly become relevant again.

I think Fitz usually makes the correct read -- but just sometime has trouble placing the ball. He seems to hit those slant routes and iintermediate routes pretty well. he just has ZERO touch on the deep routes. Kinda like the anti-J.P. Losman.

Like many others have said, my initial reaction when I heard the news of the cut was that there is more to this story. However, after thinking about it and digesting it for a bit, all of these things came to mind: 1. How did the Bills acquire him in the first place? That's right, the Chargers who drafted him and saw him play at a high level up close thought he was no longer worth keeping. 2. What exactly has he done (on the field) as a Buffalo Bill? 3. Has Merriman ever played DE in a base 4-3 defense? 4. One guy on the current coaching staff who was NOT around when the Bills acquired Merriman was Dave Wannstedt. Maybe Wanny was not convinced that Merriman would be able to play at a high level in his system. 5. The Bills could very well keep a number of fringe type players on the final roster (i.e. Brad Smith and C. Potter). That 53-man list is going to start filling up quicker than we think. Merriman will not be the only player who gets cut that is highly questioned. 6. I don't think the coaches were EVER relying on Merriman to be a solid contributor. I think they HOPED he could flash some of his former self, but I don't think they had any expectations. 7. On the field, this deal never panned out for the Bills. Oh, well. At least they tried. It was a fairly low risk-high reward. We never saw the high reward, but I appluad them for taking a chance to make the team better. And what did it really cost the Bills other than some $? 8. Off the field, Merriman may very well have been a great return on investment. He was a great spokesman for Buffalo, and helped recruit a number of our current players like Nck Barnett. Remember a few years ago, when we couldn't sign decent free agents? This past off-season the Bills managed to land THE most coveted player in free agency -- and I bet Merriman's presence was part of why Mario was willing to come here. 9. Considering that Merriman had been a good soldier for the Bills, the front office decided to be classy and cut him early enough to potentially land a job with another team.

Off the top of my head.... -- 89 (I believe it was) against the Dolhons when Kelly scored with no time remaining on the clock. -- 90 beating Denver with 3 forced turnovers (and 3 TDs) all within like 90 seconds, when the game looked over late in the 4th quarter -- 90 AFC Wildcard game against Miami... Marino and Kelly were both on their A Game that day... 44-34 -- 91 AFC Championship Game 51-3 over the Raidas -- 92 the no-punt game against San Fancisco -- 92 Wild Card Game against Houston... The greatest game I ever saw! -- 93 AFC Championship Game... We're back! The Bills knocked Montana out of the game early in the 2nd half. -- 96 againt New England. Ugly 10-3 (or something like that) game. Bills fail to convert a 3rd down play late in the game. Instead of refusing the penlaty, Parcells takes it and forces 3rd and 20 rather than 4th and 2. The Pats blitz, Kelly reads it and hits Reed in stride for a long TD. Marv screams, "Thank you blitz!" The Pats get the ball back and drive down the field. On 4th and goal from the 2, Bledoe tries for the draw and gets stuffed. -- 98 against Jacksonville... 4th and goal from the 1 with seconds to go. The playcall is a run to Thurman, but there is a mixup, so Flutie runs it in himself. The beginning of the Flutie Magic Era. -- 99 at Baltimore... Defense dominates on both sides of teh ball. Down by 10 late, Flutie finally manages to engineer a scoring drive aftre having thrown 4 INTs in the game. The Bills get the ball back again and are faced with a 4th and 15 situation. Fluties scambles for the 1st down. And the Bills go one to socre the game winning TD on that drive. I cannot bring myself to mention any of the games that have happened since then, since none of them has played a part in getting us to the playoffs. Hopefully that changes in 2012!

No great loss. When was the last time any of the beat writers at the D&C broke a story anyway? The Buffalo News is a different matter.

Historically it does seem like the most polarizing figures around here are the ones that we as fans deem to be "overpaid" (or "over-drafted" a la Donte Whitner). There is the "Ralph is Cheap!" crowd, and then there is the "Why did we pay that much for...?" crowd. Often I think these crowds are one-in-the-same: perpetual complainers. When it come to Kelsay, I understand why the coaches love him. He is a hard worker, good with the media, an excellent locker-room guy, wants to be here, and shows up to play every Sunday. Aaron Schobel used to say that he got paid for what he did on Monday through Saturday and that what he did on Sundays he did for free. The difference, of course, is that Schobel was much more of an impact player than Kelsay has ever been. In a way, Kelsay reminds me of a favorite whipping boy from the past, Kurt Schulz -- who used to make an occasional play and was usually in the right position to make a play but always seemed to be just a step away. Part of the problem is that Kelsay has been playing out of position for the last 2 years, but even when he was playing his natural DE position, he was never an elite player. He's a guy that did everything reasonably well -- but really nothing exceptionally. Buddy pretty much said as much when the team signed Kelsay to the contract extension a couple of years ago. The truth of the matter is that for the first time in his career he is probably in the perfect situation -- playing as part of a rotation with higher profile guys like Williams/Anderson/Merriman (not to mention Dareus/Williams from the inside), who should demand most of the attention of opposing offenses. As a role player, which he is destined to be in 2012, (combined with all of the positive attributes that the coaches like) I am not sure why anyone would have a problem with his presence on the roster, especially since his existing contract is no longer that much of an issue.

One word: stability. Their front office has remained very consistent, and over the course of the last 43 years they have had exactly 3 head coaches: all of whom won Super Bowls.

I wouldn't say that Kelly necessarily threw it too many times. It was just that the defense couldn't get off the field and the offense had trouble getting into a rhythm. The one series that I remember the most that no one ever talks about is the offensive series AFTER the safety. The Bills had just gone up 12-3 and the momentum was on their side. They received the ball in favorable scoring position -- and a score there may very well have sealed the game because the Giants' offense was not built to come back. Instead, the offense wasted that series -- all of which were passes: a beautiful throw to Reed that was incomplete due to a crazy hit by the defender, an errant throw from Kelly that went incomplete, and another beautiful throw to Reed that was simply dropped (poor Reed was beaten to a pulp that day and certainly heard footsteps). The Giants got the ball back, marched down the field on a 8 or 9 minute drive to get within 12-10 -- then got the ball first in the 2nd half to go on another 8 or 9 minute drive to take the lead. The Bills' offense was dormant for over an hour. Yes, those NFC East teams of the early 90s were a poor match-up for us (always thought the Bills would have fared much better against the 49ers). But Marv was badly out-coached in all 4 of those Super Bowls.

Yea, to be honest, given the Bills' needs I do not see a "worst case scenario". To me, the only players that we know with certainty that will be drafted ahead of the Bills are Luck, RG III, Claiborne and Richardson (I do not see Cleveland, Tampa Bay and St. Louis all passing on him.) That leaves 5 more guys to come off before Buffalo picks. I have no idea how the next 6 would be rated, but lets just say the next 11 are: Kalil Blackmon Kuechly Gilmore Barron Floyd Tannehill Cox Ingram Coples Glenn I know opinions here differ wildly on the pros and cons of each of these guys, but regardless -- assuming none of the top 9 teams do anything crazy (well, top 7 since we already know about Indy and Washington) -- the Bills will be able to choose from 1 of 6 of these remaining picks. That could very well give them the ammunition and flexibility to trade down. In fact, if I were Buddy I would even take an "under market" deal with either the Cowboys or Chargers for that very reason.

Nix's comment that the fans and media may be surprised what direction the Bills go made me wonder if Barron may be the pick. Depending on who goes in the top 9, I could live with this pick, especially given the TEs the Bills have to face each year.

I think the key for Spiller has less to do with his abilities and more to do with whether or not Chan can come up with creative and effective ways of using him.

Despite what some may say, I believe that the Bills are in good shape picking at 10 this year. In handling the dire need at DE in free agency, they can now focus on taking a WR, OT, CB or LB -- all positions that could stand an upgrade -- without having to reach. Heck, if they really believe that Tannehill is a potential frnachise QB, they could even go in that direction (in the unlikely event that he is still there). They honestly can take the BPA and still fill a need. What's more, with the flexibility at position, they may even benefit if the unthinkable happens and someone like Blackmon, Claiborne or Kalil falls. Assuming that all of the blue chippers have been snatched up with those first 9 picks, it would be hard to be upset by the selection of any of the guys whose names pop up here all the time Kuechly/Reiff/Floyd/Upshaw/Kirkpatrick/Gilmore. Also, why is no one talking about Kendall Wright? I know he is under the 6-foot mark, but he could be an explosive receiver in the Bills' offense.

Many reasons... 1. Even with Spiller and Fred on board, the Bills would hate to pass on a true blue chip stud RB if he fell to them. They owe it to themselves to see if this guy is merely a decent back (a la M Lynch) or the next Jim Brown. That is the due diligence part of the equation. 2. When the Bills talk to him, they can press him to gauge what interest other teams have shown in him. That helps them analyze their draft board and interpret where players may go in the draft. Also, perhaps they can get more intel about these other teams (in terms of strategy) gleaned from information that they may have shared with Richardson in interviews. Moreover, by doing a detailed analysis of the player, they have the opportunity to scout up close a player who could wind up playing for a division foe. 3. Smokescreens indeed. If the Bills convince the other 31 teams that they are interested in Richardson, that means that another team that really wants him will need to draft him within the first 9 picks, increasing the possibility that another player that the Bills may truly be interested in may slide. 4. On a related note, it opens trade possibilities for teams interested in Richardson. That means that such a team will either need to trade up with the Bills or one of the top 9 teams. In the former case, moving down a bit and adding extra picks is always a good thing. In the latter case see 3 above.

So much misinformation and conflicting views out there about Reiff. What I will say is that over the last couple of years, the Bills have done a pretty job finding decent linemen. I trust the Bills talent evaluators to make a good decision about whether or not to draft (or whomever) when the pick comes in at 10. I don't see Buddy reaching.

All teams (including the Bills) do a thorough amount of homework on each of these players. If they suspect that the kid has learning disabilities, they will investigate. There could be any number of reasons why he recorded such a poor score (if this report is true). Remember when JP left because he had to pee? Fitz recorded a nearly perfect score on his test (I think it was 49 out of 50), while both Jim Kelly and Dan Marino, I believe, scored under 20. Who would you rather have quarterbacking your team?

I wonder if the leak wasn't by a team in the bottom half of the the top 10-12 hoping to make him fall to them.

Not denying that he appears to be a special athlete. So why wasn't he more of a difference-maker at the college level? I don't think Nix will over-draft these workout warriors.

I think much will depend on how much the defense improves. It is pretty clear that Chan had little faith in the defense and that could be why he was so pass-happy. Perhaps an improved defense would mean more carries for both Fred and CJ.

This is a kid the Bills can build a defense around REGARDLESS of scheme!

The top of the 2011 draft looks good already. And, yes, that includes Dareus. He is going to be the cornerstone of the Buffalo defense for years to come. He is big, versatile and appears to have his head screwed on right. Because of what he is asked to do, he is not going to be a sack-monster or a tackling machine. But he will command attention from opposing defenses, which should allow other players around him (assuming we get some upgrades there) to produce. Believe it or not good big men like him are much harder to find that talented wide receivers (AJ Green) and pass rush specialists (Miller). That isn't to knock either of those guys, who had outstanding rookie seasons and look to be quality players for years to come. Indeed, the Bills could use a player like Miller and Green in this year's draft if they are there. Honestly, I do not see any real separation between Fitz and Dalton. Both are, IMHO, middle-of-the-road starting QBs. Dalton was a good pick up for the Bengals, because they desperately needed to find an instant starter once Palmer pulled his prima dona nonsense. Yes, Dalton is a rookie and could certainly get better, but he had the benefit of a very good defense to back him up, and the offense was structured in such a way that Dalton was not asked to do much. Whereas, Fitz, I believe, put too much pressure on himself to try to score on every possession, largely because he was having to play catch-up so often. Chan probably could have helped him a little more with additional patience with the running game. I liked what I saw from Aaron Williams most of the time. I know everyone screams every time the Bills draft a CB early, but their history of allowing them to walk (Odoms, Buris, Winfield, Clements, Greer...) means that they have to invest high picks on them early. Also, Dave W has traditionally favored using more man-coverage, and the Bills are going to need tough, physical CBs to deal with teams like the Pats.